Hawks D vs. Top 8 NFL Defenses in Asset Expenditure

knownone

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Ok then where does Seattle rank in regards to total investment and/or capital in relation to results? I count multiple firsts and multiple second round picks (5?). That’s not counting a first against Bobby because you got him a second time around. That alone is a lot so I’d be curious where your numbers put us if Fade is so far off and I’m not being snarky. To me though even if we concede your points there is still a ton of investment being made and the defense is near the bottom of the league.

I guess my point is, it’s a very hard sell to convince me Seattle hasnt made a ton of effort and investment into the defense. KJ, Brock and Salk and others have all made the same point Fade has
I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I'm defending my initial point against the accusation that it's nitpicking. Any analysis that implies Seattle's invested twice as much draft value than most teams is not viable, in my opinion.

The Seahawks are 17th in average defensive cap spent over the past five seasons. As for draft capital spent, I don't have time to do a full deep dive, but they're not in the top eight of cumulative value (unadjusted). Ask me in January, and I'll write a script to figure this out. We'll combine the two, normalize, and call it a defensive investment score.

Edit: I haven't dug into it entirely yet, but I think the best way to determine draft value is using rookie contracts rather than cumulative value or TVC. For example, in the 2022 draft and using trade value charts, the #1 pick, Trayvon Walker, is worth a little over 2x as much as the #5 pick, Kayvon Thibodeaux. That's ridiculous. But if you use contracts, Walker is worth a little less than 1.2x as much, which sounds more realistic. Similarly, the #2 pick, Hutchinson, drops from about 1.5 to 1.05, which is again more accurate in value. That's because the Rich Hill values use historical trade data that (basically) decays exponentially, which makes sense for trade values but not investment valuations.

I might have the kinks figured out sooner than expected. And we should have a more realistic and financially grounded representation of each team's relative defensive investments. But let's be honest: No one actually cares. :ROFLMAO:
 
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Polk738

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The right coach could easily turn it into a top 10 defense.

Minnesota has way less talent, and were the worst defense in the league last year. Brought in Brian Flores, and now are top 10, just like that.

That actually says quite abit considering they were running Fangio's scheme as well last season
 

renofox

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That actually says quite abit considering they were running Fangio's scheme as well last season
They dumped that pile of shit scheme, I'm sure. Someone here posted a video analyzing the defenses of teams running Fangio crap. They ALL sucked unless Fangio was the one running it.
 

Ozzy

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They dumped that pile of shit scheme, I'm sure. Someone here posted a video analyzing the defenses of teams running Fangio crap. They ALL sucked unless Fangio was the one running it.
It’s true and the teams running it today are struggling with it.
 

renofox

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It’s true and the teams running it today are struggling with it.
You mean those still stupid enough to be running it. I wonder why the Seahawks defense is struggling? They dumped it, right? Oh, wait...
 
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Is he? Why didn't he include Frank Clark on the Chiefs? And why can't we dispute that? They are 8th in defensive spending league-wide, and they've been average or blow in every season besides this one since 2019.

I'm not arguing technicalities. He's literally misusing the trade value chart to suit his conclusion, restricting his sample, and flat-out ignoring other trades from his equation. Similarly, he's wrong even if we use his bastardized valuations. Seattle has not invested more in their defense than any other team using his criteria. Jacksonville and Detroit have invested much more.
Thanks for pointing out the omission. I will update.

Frank Clark should be listed.
 
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================
LIONS
15th (Yards), 25th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 26th out of 32 teams ($87M+)
Draft Capital: 2,372 pts.


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'19, 138 pts. Jahiani Tavai
3rd'19, 51 pts. Will Harris ( #88 + #204)
1st'20, 514 pts. Jeff Okudah
3rd'20, 75 pts. Julian Okwara
2nd'21, 146 pts. Levi Onwuzurike
3rd'21, 67 pts. Alim McNeil
3rd'21, 34 pts. Ifeatu Melifonwu
1st'22, 717 pts. Aiden Hutchinson
2nd'22, 128 pts. Josh Paschal
3rd'22 38 pts. Kerby Joseph
1st'23 287 pts. Jack Campbell
2nd'23 131 pts. Brian Branch (#48 + #159)
3rd'23 46 pts. Brodric Martin (#122 + #139 + #168)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (4), 3rd (6), 13 picks.

# Notes: Two top 5 picks spent on defense is definitely a massive investment. They are still not worse than the Seahawks on defense, and cash spending is towards the bottom of the league.


It's pretty amazing the Seahawks are competing in draft capital invested with a team that routinely picks in the top 5 throughout their history. I will do JAX next.
 
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Polk738

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They dumped that pile of shit scheme, I'm sure. Someone here posted a video analyzing the defenses of teams running Fangio crap. They ALL sucked unless Fangio was the one running it.
Pretty sure I was the one who posted that video towards the end of last season

 
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renofox

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Pretty sure I was the one who posted that video towards the end of last season
If you still have a link, a repost would be nice. It would be interesting to analyze in light of our defense's "performance" this year.
 

renofox

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I rewatched it, and it appears the Seahawks decided to switch their defense to a really shitty scheme. They tweaked it by deciding to eliminate its strengths by removing the creative blitzes and disguised coverages.

This is fine!



Genius.
 

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Given the situation, I don’t see much downside in hiring a new defensive coordinator.
 

cymatica

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I rewatched it, and it appears the Seahawks decided to switch their defense to a really shitty scheme. They tweaked it by deciding to eliminate its strengths by removing the creative blitzes and disguised coverages.

This is fine!



Genius.
Literally the only thing that makes it kind of work they don't do. This is 100% on Pete for his obsession with his soft zone don't get beat deep style that is completely at odds with any modern defense that doesn't have a top 2 dline
 

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Ozzy

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Literally the only thing that makes it kind of work they don't do. This is 100% on Pete for his obsession with his soft zone don't get beat deep style that is completely at odds with any modern defense that doesn't have a top 2 dline
Yeah for everyone trying to talk themselves into this isn’t Pete it matches what he’s preached for over a DECADE. Bend dont break, don’t give up the big explosive etc. how someone can solely blame Clint when Pete is in the game plan meetings every week I’ll never fully understand. Sure maybe he’s hands off in game but he agrees to the game plan pre game 100%. To say otherwise is actually painting Pete in a worse light. Does he just sit in his office and hope for the best? That paints the picture of him being powerless and if that’s the case the pro Pete crowd should be calling for him to be fired more than anyone.
 
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================
JAX
25th (Yards), 20th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 12th out of 32 teams ($115M+)
Draft Capital: 2741 pts! (Holy S!!!)


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19 426 pts. Josh Allen
3rd'19 46 pts. Quincy Williams (#98 + #165)
1st'20, 387 pts. C.J. Henderson
1st'20, 269 pts. K'Lavon Chaisson
3rd'20, 65 pts. DaVon Hamilton
2nd'21, 180 pts. Tyson Campbell
3rd'21, 78 pts. Andre Cisco
1st'22, 1000 pts! Travon Walker
1st'22, 220 pts. Devin Lloyd (#33 + #106 + #180)
3rd'22, 70 pts. Chad Muma 70
'23 N/A (All Offense)


-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (5), 2nd (1), 3rd (4), 10 picks.

# Notes: They picked #1 overall twice in back 2 back seasons with Travon Walker (1000 points!) being one of them. Despite this, they still have more playoff wins than Pete Carroll since 2017.

Still, this is the defense that could be argued has more investment, when factoring in both cash and draft capital. A lot of investment, still not worse than the Seahawks who have thrown more volume put into their defense featuring five 1sts & five 2nds. While JAX only has one 2nd rd pick invested into their defense in the last 5 years.

This is how far Pete has fallen, though. And what he is competing with. DET & JAX, two of the worst orgs of the last 5 years, who routinely draft in the top 10. Only recently have they turned themselves around and their futures appear to be bright. Can't say the same for Pete. Pete has all of this investment in his defense, and there are talks of blowing it up, AGAIN. As Pete thinks it's the players fault, as he threw them under the bus this week.
 

jeremiah

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The Jamal Adams trade was a failure of the highest level. Pete continually goes all in year after year mortgaging our future, and I'm sick of it. His motto is win forever, but his actions are consistently mortgage the future for desperate plays at relevance now.
THAT is what guys who have no long term plans. He SAYS he wants to coach forever, but he has a wife, and a retirement plan. He SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO RETIRE, he has spent nearly 10 years destroying what He and Schneider built. He deserves tar and feathers as far as I am concerned.
 
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