Separation of Top End WRs.

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SonicHawk

SonicHawk

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I'm going to go through Baker's touchdowns and see what TB does so well (score Tuddies).

#1 - Fade to Mike Evans. It was a great thrown ball and Mike Evans is handfighting the entire way. Definition of 50/50. First read, good throw, mike evans.

#2 - Chris Godwin on a little out on the 4 yard line. Defense leaves him alone. First read, good throw, TD.

#3 - Jalen McMillan on a deep ball beats the safeties to a spot. First read again -- baker is throwing when Jalen is covered but the defender sprints off of him. First read, perfect throw, TD.

#4 - Fade to Mike Evans -- the first throw where Baker doesn't really hit a good spot but Mike makes a perfect move towards the ball. Once again first read.

#5 - Is baker ever not throw touchdowns on a second read? He watched Chris Godwin the entire time. A really nice and easy throw for a 41 yard wide open TD.

#6 - A fade route to Chris Godwin. Godwin high points it in the endzone. Ugh, these plays are so good. First read.

#7 - Another near goal line play. Really great play concept as the defenders bite on the outside receivers diving towards the middle and let's Mike Evans playing in the slot wide open to the left. First read again.

#8 - Baker knows he's going to Trey Palmer immediately but tries to look off the safety who doesn't bite. Sends a dart into the hands of Palmer who is covered like butter. His best throw yet.

#9 - Mike Evans wide open in the middle of the field while baker rolls out. Easiest tuddy I've seen yet.

#10 - Baker just stares at Mike Evans until he gets open and then dots him up. I'm not joking either, there are no reads on this play. He stares at him for 3 seconds before throwing.

#11 - Another rollout near the goal line. Absolutely dots Sterling Shepard in the endzone. Another readless TD but like the Palmer TD, this was baker dotting it.

#12 - Another first read throw (ignoring a more open TE in the middle) and dots Chris Godwin. A great throw.

#13 - Sean Tucker escapes for 36 yards off a designed short pass.

#14 - Chris Godwin escapes for 45 yards off a designed short pass.

#15 - Play breaks down on the 8 yard line and Baker moves around in the pocket before his TE is open. He throws with all arm and gets it out quick. Impressive TD.

#16 - This is one of those TDs that's like -- if only we had that oline. Baker gets enough time and Mike Evans reacts to a soft spot in the defense to grab the TD. Evan's understanding of the game and their chemistry is outstanding. Maybe the second of example of Baker having to read things.

#17 - Dump to Racahad White for 11 yards for a designed play.

------- Ok, that's enough baker now.

Watching these TDs I have a few takeaways.
-- Tampa Bay's offensive scheme is awesome. They really seem to focus on a receiver who will get the ball and everything else is decoy as Baker rarely looks around on these plays.
-- Mike Evans deserves every dollar he makes.
-- Their oline is solid.
-- Baker is throwing great balls. I don't want to give too much credit to scheme, these are well thrown balls. These don't happen without Baker playing top level football.
 
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SonicHawk

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BTW -- watching Geno's TDs right after it's impressive how much pressure he is in compared to Baker's TDs.

We really need to fix this line to give the next QB a real chance. Seriously name a random Baker and Geno touchdown # and I'll screenshot it to compare.
 

SweepSanFran

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Damn Sonic these deep dives are great. i would be curious to see what happened on Bakers INT's. were they still a first read throw?
 

Ozzy

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Baker and Geno have almost identical stats the past two years outside of touchdowns.

Completion rate (67.6 vs 67.9), pass yards/attempt (7.4 vs 7.5), pass yards/game (252.2 vs 249.1), interceptions (24 vs 25), win % (55%), sacks (79), batted passes (31 vs 32), bad throw % (12.5 vs 13) -- etc.

Don't get me wrong, touchdowns matter -- but it doesn't make sense for soo much of this important stuff to lineup perfectly but having one result not.

I'm not trying to bring down Baker either, he's played exceptionally well.
No I get it and it is wild they're so close on everything other than touchdowns.
 

Ozzy

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BTW -- watching Geno's TDs right after it's impressive how much pressure he is in compared to Baker's TDs.

We really need to fix this line to give the next QB a real chance. Seriously name a random Baker and Geno touchdown # and I'll screenshot it to compare.
I think the light at the end of the tunnel is that it's not impossible to make the line much better in one off season. You have the two pieces that usually require the most capital in the tackles. Just replace 2 of the 3 interior pieces and you can easily get your line to perform middle of the road. I don't think they even need to be good but just average and the rest of the team is good enough that you should be a 12+ win team if you do that. I think it was Daniel Jeremiah that said the same thing. Get some help on the interior in the draft and maybe one FA signing as a priority and you're good. When you have to replace a left tackle, right tackle etc it gets much harder.
 

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If you compare Baker and Geno’s stats the past couple of years he’s better. He even had one really good year in Cleveland too and that place was terrible.
He's had better everything to be better and that year in Cleveland?
Did you see who they had?
 

Ozzy

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He's had better everything to be better and that year in Cleveland?
Did you see who they had?
He didn't have a great cast that year weapons wise. Jarvis Landry, Odell for part of the year and Chubb rushed for 1,000. I don't think he had massively better supporting cast than we have now. They did have a great line though if I remember. I don't know it seems like Seattle fans always have an excuse why anyone is better than Geno. Maybe Geno is really just a 12-20 ranked QB and there isn't always something in the way of him being top 5? That's how I see it. I think Baker has been objectively better than Geno regardless of the excuses. Maybe Geno does the same thing if he played in those situations but we will never know so sometimes you just have to give credit where credit is due.

I don't think Geno makes a ton of mistakes when the line breaks down in regards to turnovers. His mistakes seem to be at weird times where he has protection and just makes a terribel choice. The pick in the chicago game was all him. The red zone dropped pick was all him. Fixing the line doesn't miraculously fix Geno's issues in my opinion.

BUT Sonic is right regardless you have to fix this line. It would obviously help Geno or whoever is playing QB and we need to get the running game looking like an NFL running game.
 

Ozzy

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Baker > geMEH
That's how I see it and I would bet when Sando runs out his ranking of NFL QB's from NFL teams and execs they will agree. Geno was 20th on that list last year after a decent year. But maybe they are all biased and just haters too? Seems reasonable.
 
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SonicHawk

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Damn Sonic these deep dives are great. i would be curious to see what happened on Bakers INT's. were they still a first read throw?
15 plays shouldn't be too bad. Also, all interceptions are going to be bad in some way or another so I'm not trying to make any statement other than some curiosity.

#1 (first read) - Pre-snap audible. He watches Mike Evans the entire way and then throws it into damn near triple coverage. Looks like guy who intercepted it was basically a second man defender on Evans. Throw was on target but the defender watched the space between Evans and Mayfield.

#2 (first read) - Staring down Mike Evans again. I think he had better options but throws a ball a bit off (towards the sideline I think Evans has a chance although he's not exactly open) but it goes a bit more middle of the field than he wants and the safety grabs it. 3rd and 4 and his tight end was wide open directly in front of him.

#3 (first read) - Throwing at Evans with 3 defenders again. Safety behind and two LBs in front. This is the last INT intended for Mike Evans for awhile.

#4 (first read) - A quick pass to McMillan over the middle and baker throws it a bit low and it's deflected back up and into the safety. I honestly don't know why he rushed this throw. .5 second later and McMillan is probably free, there were multiple open options.

#5 (not first read) - Tipped at the line. Baker looking at his seecond read sees Cade Otton streaking over the middle. Another one where I think if Baker has a bit more patience he gets Cade and doesn't get tipped.

#6 (not first read) - Goal line INT. Looks off his first read. You won't believe this but he had 6 seconds in the pocket and still wasn't under pressure when he threw the ball. He stares at Bucky Irving who is open at the goal line and then turns away. McMillan is actually wide open but he doesn't see him until the last second and throws it late for an easy pick. Maybe his ugliest one yet.

#7 - (maybe first read) - He's staring down Chris Godwin and throws a pretty bad ball. Watching it a couple more times I'm not sure if he just throws a duck short intended for Sterling Shepard or what.

#8 - (first read) - Flea flicker time. Underthrow and initial hesitation. Just not very good there.

#9 - (first read) - He tries to pull the safety off of McMillan with a little juke but underthrows it enough for that same safety to come pick it. A bit more loft and it's a TD. Baker really doesn't like to overthrow anything.

#10 - (not first read) - Play breaks down a bit and he rolls out and sidearms a ball to the flats that is pretty errant.

#11 - (first read) - Stares down McMillan and throws it directly to a safety just sitting there.

#12 - (first read) - A designed screen pass gets tipped and picked. Defender sees its a screen and doesn't over pursue baker who throws a dart into his hands. Baker doesn't look before he begins to throw and doesn't have time ot adjust.

#13 - (first read) - Cade Otton streaking on the right, Baker pumps to try to pull off the LB. He kind of jumps into the pressure and throws a genuinely terrible ball that is easily picked.

#14 - (maybe first read) - I actually can't tell for sure if it is his first read. He throws it behind Evans who beats the corner but the corner is able to take it away.

#15 - (maybe first read) - Tosses up a deep 50/50 ball to McMillan. A little underthrown.

So 9 first reads for sure, 3 maybes, and 3 definitely nots.

I think a lot of these correlate nicely with Baker's seemingly excessively low time to throw. I don't think any of these INTs are because of pressure. This graph is a few months old but still representative.

Timetothrow
Looking at nextgen stats Time To Throw Baker is now 6th (2.68) behind Tua, Dalton, Rush, Rodgers and Flacco. Geno is in the middle at 2.8.
 

Ozzy

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I think Baker is in the Brett Favre mold and just likes to take chances and is a gunslinger. You're going to get some picks you don't want but he will also make a lot of big plays as evident by his touchdown numbers.
 
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SonicHawk

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I think Baker is in the Brett Favre mold and just likes to take chances and is a gunslinger. You're going to get some picks you don't want but he will also make a lot of big plays as evident by his touchdown numbers.
Good chance that Baker just buys into the playbook and expects his guys to be there. His throws for the most part were good throws, just sometimes there's another jersey on the other side as well as his guy. From the INTs and TDs I watched very rarely was the accuracy of the throw bad. Dude is slinging it.
 

Ozzy

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Good chance that Baker just buys into the playbook and expects his guys to be there. His throws for the most part were good throws, just sometimes there's another jersey on the other side as well as his guy. From the INTs and TDs I watched very rarely was the accuracy of the throw bad. Dude is slinging it.
I'm sure I said it elsewhere but I couldn't stand Baker for the longest time but after watching him the past couple of years its just really hard not to root for him. He's a tough dude, his teammates love him and he's a competitor. He's grown up a little too and hard not to root for a redemption story.
 

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I'm sure I said it elsewhere but I couldn't stand Baker for the longest time but after watching him the past couple of years its just really hard not to root for him. He's a tough dude, his teammates love him and he's a competitor. He's grown up a little too and hard not to root for a redemption story.
The irony is comical
 

Ozzy

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The irony is comical
Why are you always combative or snarky? So because I don’t think it’s smart to spend 50 million on Geno this is your response?

You’re emotionally attached to Geno and that’s fine. I’m not. I love his story too I just don’t think he is the answer long term especially if he wants more money. The fact that you get mad at anyone who disagrees on a message board is a losing effort for me. You, Keasely and others disagree and that doesn’t bother me at all so why does me not viewing Geno as near elite both you so much?
 

OrangeGravy

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Why are you always combative or snarky? So because I don’t think it’s smart to spend 50 million on Geno this is your response?

You’re emotionally attached to Geno and that’s fine. I’m not. I love his story too I just don’t think he is the answer long term especially if he wants more money. The fact that you get mad at anyone who disagrees on a message board is a losing effort for me. You, Keasely and others disagree and that doesn’t bother me at all so why does me not viewing Geno as near elite both you so much?
What does you ironically talking about how it's hard not root for one particular comeback story while finding it easy to root for another have to do with spending $50 mill on Geno? Who wants to spend $50 mill on Geno?
 

Ozzy

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It was a side conversation about baker but you already knew that.
 
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