The Hawks D vs. the Top 8 D: Asset Expenditure

[Fade]

Here it is the thread you've all been waiting for!

I present to you the top 8 defenses in the NFL, and the assets they expended to build said top 8 defense through 13 games. While seeing how the Seahawks stack up. Why not Top 10? It got too muddy, there is a clear top 8, and after that 5+ plus teams could be argued for the final 2 spots. Top 8 also conveniently = Top 25%.

Rich Hill Valuation Model 2023 Draft Value Chart used to determine points for each pick. Factored in trade ups.

=================
49ERS
1ST (Yards), 1st (Points)
=================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$9.5M APY, Jimmie Ward (S)
$8.3M APY, Nick Bosa (Edge)
$17M APY, Arik Armstead (DL)
$6M APY, Samson Ebukan (Edge)
$19M APY, Fred Warner (LB)
$13.5M APY, Charvarious Ward (CB)
$8.2M APY, Dre Greenlaw (LB)
-------
Total Players: 7
Total APY in major investments = $81.5M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd'18, 70 pts. Fred Warner
3rd'18, 40 pts. Tarvarious Moore
1st '19, 717 pts. Nick Bosa
1st'20, 325 pts. Javon Kinlaw
3rd'21, 35 pts. Ambry Thomas
2nd'22, 86 pts. Drake Jackson
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (3), 6 picks. 1273 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: I was expecting a lot more investment with the #1 Defense. Bosa hasn't gotten paid yet, but they don't have a lot of picks invested. Only two 1sts, and one 2nd in the last 5 years.

=================
EAGLES
2nd (Yards), 7th (Points)
=================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$13M APY, Javon Hargrave (DL)
$16.7M APY, Darius Slay (CB)
$9.25M APY, Brandon Graham (Edge)
$14M APY, Fletcher Cox (DL)
$15M APY, Haasan Reddick (Edge)
$13.33M APY, Josh Sweat (Edge)
$7M APY, Derek Barnett (Edge)
$7.5M APY, Avonte Maddox (CB)
$7.25M APY, James Bradberry (CB)
-------
Total Players: 9
Total APY in major investments = $103.03M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd'18 - 39 pts. Ronald Darby (Trade: Spent #96.)
'19 - None (All Offense)
3rd'20, 35 pts. Davion Taylor
3rd'21, 65 pts. Milton Williams 139
1st'22, 355 pts. Jordan Davis (Traded up: #15 + #124 + #162 + #166)
3rd'22 52 pts. Nakobe Dean
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (1), 2nd (0), 3rd (4), 5 picks. 546 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: The Eagle have $64M in dead money on their cap, and by far the least amount of draft capitol invested into their defense. So how the hell are they doing this? Voidable years. Nearly all of their paid guys have voidable years attached to keep their cap numbers down. They are also smart and the complete opposite of the Seahawks when it comes to spending. Pash Rushers and guys who can cover. Those are the only guys getting paid on Philly's defense. Smart.

================
JETS
3rd (Yards), 6th (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$15M APY, Carl Lawson (Edge)
$14.5M APY, John Franklin-Meyers (Edge)
$8.13M APY, Quinnen Williams (DL)
$5.5M APY, Sheldon Rankins (DL)
$8.3M APY, Sauce Gardner (CB)
$17M APY, C.J. Mosely (LB)
$11M APY, D.J. Reed (CB)
$7.25M APY, Jordan Whitehead (S)
-------
Total Players: 8
Total APY in major investments = $86.68M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd'18, 67 pts. Nathan Sheppard
1st'19, 514 pts. Quinnen Williams
3rd'19, 73 pts. Jachai Polite
3rd'20, 73 pts. Ashtyn Davis
3rd'20, 57 pts. Jabari Zuniga
'21 - None (All Offense)
1st'22, 491 pts. Sauce Gardner
2nd+3rd'22, 250 pts. Jermaine Johnson II (Traded up: #35 + #69 + #163)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (5), 8 picks. 1525 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: The Jets are actually what a young defense is supposed to look like. Unlike the Seahawks who get stereotyped as young because they suck, so that must mean they are young. Their only old man regular is 30 year old C.J. Mosley, and he will likely be cut or a massive paycut at the very least, after the season. 2nd most draft capital spent which will happen when you draft defense in the top 5 twice. As they are the only ones in the top 8 to do so. 1k points between those 2 players alone.

================
COMMANDERS
4th (Yards), 10th (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$10M APY, Kendal Fuller (CB)
$18M APY, Jonathan Allen (DL)
$8.6M APY, Chase Young (Edge)
$5M APY, Bobby McCain (S)
$8.5M APY, Da'Ron Payne (DL) (5th yr Option)
-------
Total Players: 4
Total APY in major investments = $50.1M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'18, 336 pts. Da'Ron Payne
2nd'19+2nd'20, 263 pts. Montez Sweat Trade Up (#46 + '20 2nd = #44)
1st'20, 717 pts. Chase Young
1st'21, 278 pts. Jamin Davis
3rd'21, 64 pts. Benjamin St-Juste
2nd'22 124 pts. Phidarian Mathis
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (3), 3rd (1), 7 picks. 1782 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: The Commanders have the most draft capitol spent in the last 5 years despite only taking 6 players in that span. They are not spending a lot of money on defense, but they have a few 1st round D-Lineman due for new contracts soon. So that will change drastically in the next couple of years.

================
COWBOYS
5th (Yards), 3rd (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$13.33M APY, Demarcus Lawrence (Edge)
$5M APY, Jayron Kearse (S)
$6M APY, Dorance Armstrong Jr. (DL)
$5.166M APY, Anthony Brown (CB)

-------
Total Players: 4
Total APY in major investments = $29.496M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'18, 278 pts. Leighton Vander Esch
2nd'19, 93 pts. Trysten Hill
2nd'20, 112 pts. Trevon Diggs
3rd'20, 54 pts. Neville Gallimore
1st'21, 347 pts. Micah Parsons (Dan Quinn '21, fix the Defense.)
2nd'21, 135 pts. Kelvin Joseph
3rd'21, 63 pts. Osa Odighizuwa
3rd'21, 51 pts. Chauncey Golsten
3rd'21, 37 pts. Nahshon Wright
2nd'22 98 pts. Sam Williams
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (4), 3rd (4), 10 picks. 1268 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: Jerry is spending his money on offense, while he gave the great Dan Quinn the '21 draft to rebuild, which was at the time one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Dan Quinn turned it around immediately and now has them top 5 in the league with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round picks, and Micah Parsons of course. Dallas has spent the 2nd most picks of the top 8 with a whopping 10 in 5 years with half of those coming in '21 alone.

================
PATRIOTS
6th (Yards), 5th (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$13.625M APY, Matt Judon (Edge)
$10.4M APY, Davon Godcahaux (DL)
$7M APY, Jonathan Jones (CB)
$6M APY, Jalen Mills (CB)
$9M APY, Devin McCourty (S)
$5.5M APY, Deatrich Wise (Edge)
-------
Total Players: 6
Total APY in major investments = $51.525M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'18, 109 pts. Duke Dawson (Traded up #63 + #117)
2nd+3rd'19, 134 pts. Joejuan Williams (Traded up #56 + #101)
3rd'19, 60 pts. Chase Winovich
2nd'20, 162 pts. Kyle Dugger
3rd+3rd'20, 85 pts. Josh Uche (Traded up #71 + #98 - #129)
3rd'20, 48 pts. Anfernee Jennings
2nd'21, 151 pts. Christian Barmore (Traded up #46 + #122 + #139)
3rd'21, 39 pts. Ronnie Perkins
3rd'22, 50 pts. Marcus Jones
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (0), 2nd (4), 3rd (7), 11 picks. 838 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: Nickel & Dime Bill. He shutters at having to pay big money to Free Agents and goes for the quantity over quality approach, similar to Pete. But unlike Pete, Bill can coach them up, turning them into a top 5 unit. Also taking the same approach in the draft with 11 selections, most amongst the top 8 defenses, but also 2nd least in draft capitol spent. Zero 1st rounders taken. That frugal SOB.


================
BRONCOS
7th (Yards), 4th (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$15.2M APY, Justin Simmons (S)
$5.2M APY, Patrick Surtain II (CB)
$10M APY, D.J. Jones (DL)
$5.5M APY, Josey Jewell (LB)
$13.9M APY, Randy Gregory (Edge)
$10M APY, Ronald Darby (CB)
-------
Total Players: 6
Total APY in major investments = $59.8M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'18, 468 pts. Bradley Chubb
3rd'18, 37 pts. Isaac Yiadom
3rd'19, 68 pts. Dre'Mont Jones
3rd'20, 60 pts. Michael Ojemudia
1st'21, 387 pts. Patrick Surtain II
2nd'22 80 pts. Nik Bonitto
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (3), 6 picks. 1100 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

# Notes: Denver is the most injured team in the NFL, yet it hasn't stopped their defense from playing amazing week in and week out. The offense not so much.
It is impressive to see how little they've invested draft wise into the defense. Chubb is gone so that just leaves Surtain II as the only significant draft invest in the last 5 years on defense.

================
BILLS
9th (Yards), 2nd (Points)
================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$20M APY, Von Miller (Edge)
$17.25M APY, Tra'Davious White (CB)
$12.66M APY, Tremaine Edmunds (LB) [5th yr. Option]
$9.75M APY, Jordan Poyer (S)
$9.625M APY, Micah Hyde (S)
$10.375M APY, Matt Milano (LB)
$8M APY, Taron Johnson (CB)
$7M APY, DaQuan Jones (DL)
$5M APY, Jordan Phillips (DL)
-------
Total Players: 9
Total APY in major investments = $99.66M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'18, 318 pts. Tremaine Edmunds (Traded up #22 + #65 - #154)
3rd'18, 39 pts. Harrison Phillips
1st'19, 387 pts. Ed Oliver
2nd'20, 104 pts. A.J. Epenesa
1st'21, 196 pts. Gregory Rousseau
2nd'21, 86 pts. Carlos Basham Jr.
1st'22, 251 pts. Kaiir Elam (Traded up: #25 + #130)
3rd'22, 46 pts. Terrel Bernard
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (4), 2nd (2), 3rd (2), 8 picks. 1427 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

#Notes: You can't pay your QB, and the defense or so they say. Yet here the Bills are paying Josh Allen $43M APY, and handing out mega dollars to 9 players on defense.

==================
SEAHAWKS
28th (Yards), 30th (Points)
==================

$5M+ (APY) players:
-----------------------
$17.5M APY, Jamal Adams (S)
$6.172M APY, Poona Ford (DL)
$9.527M APY, Uchenna Nwosu (Edge)
$13M APY, Quandre Diggs (S)
$9M APY, Shelby Harris (DL)
$5.517M APY, Bryan Mone (DL)
-------
Total Players: 6
Total APY in major investments = $60.72M APY

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd'18, 57 pts. Rasheem Green
1st'19, 203 pts. L.J. Collier
2nd'19, 124 pts. Marquise Blair
3rd'19, 51 pts. Cody Barton (Traded up #92 + #159 - #209)
1st'20, 216 pts. Jordyn Brooks
2nd+3rd'20, 127 pts. Darrell Taylor (Traded up #59 + #101)
1st+3rd'21+1st'22, 631 pts Jamal Adams (Trade: #23 + #86 + '22 #10 - '22 #109)
2nd'22, 149 pts. Boye Mafe
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (4), 2nd (3), 3rd (4), 11 picks. 1558 pts of Draft Capitol spent.

Notes: Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson just came in under the threshold of $5M APY. Only 1 of the top 8 teams have expunged more draft capital than the Seahawks who have also spent more picks than any of these teams at 11. They spend their money foolishly on a bunch of runstuffers, but can't stop the run. Nwosu looks like the only one worth his money. Jamal Adams is a real albatross from his contract to the draft picks given up. A fireable offense.

If the Seahawks spend a top 5 pick on a defensive player, they will be ahead of all of these teams by a country mile on draft capitol spent. As they curently reside at 2nd out of these 9 teams. They could potentially spend 1500 points of draft capital in 2023 alone on defense in the first 3 rounds quite easily putting them at over 3,000 in the last 5 years! (Cycle out '18, add '23) Helluva job. The Seahawks have an asset expenditure with the purpose of building a top 5 defense, while falling so well short of the mark it makes you wonder…

Rankings in Major $$$ Defensive Player Investment:
------
1) EAGLES $103.03M APY
2) BILLS $99.66M APY
3) JETS $86.68M APY
4) 49ERS $81.5M APY

--> SEAHAWKS $60.72M APY <----- Are Here

5) BRONCOS$59.8M APY
6) PATRIOTS $51.525M APY
7) COMMANDERS $50.1M APY
8) COWBOYS $29.496M APY


Rankings in Major Draft Capitol Investment for Defensive Players Since 2018:
------
1) COMMANDERS 1782 pts.

--> SEAHAWKS 1558 pts. <----- Are Here

2) JETS 1525 pts.
3) BILLS 1427 pts
4) 49ERS 1273 pts
5) COWBOYS 1268 pts
6) BRONCOS 1100 pts
7) PATRIOTS 838 pts
8) EAGLES 546 pts

To say the Seahawks have drafted and invested poorly on defense since 2018 is the understatement of the century.

 

[Palmegranite]

At first read, pretty damning evidence.

Ouch!

 

[Ozzy]

Thanks for sharing this.

 

[Spin Doctor]

We have an inordinate amount of money tied up at safety too with Diggs and Jamal Adams. Not a whole lot of return on the Jamal Adams trade, a major bust for us at this point.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

The defensive line has been the weakest position group on the team.

The offensive line is now better than the defensive line.

Seattle and Carroll has struggled to put together a quality front seven and a lot of it is just terrible drafting.

The acquisition of Adams and extension of Diggs is very likely a result of a desperate need to compensate for poor drafting of the front seven.

I mean, if Seattle cannot build a good front seven anymore, the only option is too find a secondary.

 

[JerHawk81]

Great read.

My takeaways:

1: We have NOT drafted well on the defensive side of the ball. I only see one player out of the eight listed who has given us a return on capital. However, I also only see one player who has generated a positive return on the investment (Brooks) and no homeruns.
2: The Adams trade has been devastating!!! If you exclude Adams, our spend on $ and draft capital fall to near the bottom of the list in both categories. If you invest big like that, you better be right. And here, they weren't.
3: The money spent is embarrassing. The OP hit the nail on the head - money spent on run stuffers who can't stuff the run.
4: All of those top defensives have hit on their investments, and have elite talent. That's part luck and part preparation.

 

[LickMyNuts]

It’s obvious from the game tonight that the 49ers have a much better coached defense. They are much more aggressive and look like they know what is coming.

The Seahawks tackling looks like they are trying not to hurt the other team. A lot of catch and turn.

PC has gotten too much leeway after some early success with drafting and defensive coaches. It’s been bad since Kris Richard.

 

[GemCity]

Thanks for posting. Upon initial read, this isn’t a good look for PC and JS.

 

[flv2]

The Seahawks had a bottom 5 defense after 2022 and the bulk of the offseason resources were spent on the offense. Not going to argue with the op's post but the team has improved upon its 2022 record and it has more resources for the future than it previously had. The team is thin on talent to build around but excessive negativity would seem to be unwarranted.

 

[knownone]

If you used present value (the value they gave up at the time), the Jamal trade is only worth around 350. Judging a trade with the benefit of hindsight is not an accurate reflection of capital expenditures.

 

[HawkinNY]

Just goes to show how bad they are at drafting

 

[Natethegreat]

Jamal Adams was the worst trade in this franchises history. To then double down and overpay him was extremely frustrating and only served to further hurt this team. I am ready to not over pay for safeties please.

 

[cymatica]

I wouldn't doubt for 1 second that this same roster could be top 15 with a competent coach who not only adapts the defense to best suit his players, but also knows how to game plan his opponents.

 

[Fade]

If you used present value (the value they gave up at the time), the Jamal trade is only worth around 350. Judging a trade with the benefit of hindsight is not an accurate reflection of capital expenditures.

I debated whether to go with that logic, but ultimately when those assets are spent that is the risk, and price incurred.

If they don't trade for Adams they have those picks to spend for themselves at those values, and they are worth what they are worth. The other teams were scored the same way. The damage is done.

 

[Fade]

The Seahawks had a bottom 5 defense after 2022 and the bulk of the offseason resources were spent on the offense. Not going to argue with the op's post but the team has improved upon its 2022 record and it has more resources for the future than it previously had. The team is thin on talent to build around but excessive negativity would seem to be unwarranted.

The Seahawks are on pace to beat their franchise record for yards per game allowed on defense, set just last year. It's broken no matter how many assets they throw at it, it gets worse.

If they draft how I anticipate they will draft. They will be doubling and tripling the capitol spent as compared to the top defenses in the league, while being no where near close to them.

Based on how Pete/Hurtt and co. are doing now. This should be very troubling. There is something very wrong here. And giving them another year, (Which they will very likely get I fully admit.) could be an utter catastrophe setting the franchise back for years to come. This draft is that pivotal.

My fool's hope. Is somehow someway Pete has an epiphany, and decides to go get a real DC, that is well known. I'd say Fangio. But it looks like the 9ers got him waiting in the wings after they lose Ryans. So the 9ers get Fangio, and the Seahawks have Hurtt? We're screwed.

Go get Dan Quinn and stop this charade! Make him the HC and bump Pete up to an executive position if you have to. Do whatever it takes, but what they are doing now cannot continue.

 

[94Smith]

Adams has value on the field , but injuries are something you can not account for. This is a good thread. It would be interesting to see what the league averages are though. When you compare the investment to the best defenses it makes it look bad, but perhaps the league average investment is pretty close to all those values

 

[Maelstrom787]

Adams has value on the field , but injuries are something you can not account for. This is a good thread. It would be interesting to see what the league averages are though. When you compare the investment to the best defenses it makes it look bad, but perhaps the league average investment is pretty close to all those values

It was always bad compensation wise, but yeah. This is a point that should be considered.

He'd only missed 2 games in his career at the time of the trade. You can't predict it when it happens like this.

 

[James in PA]

If I were Jody, I'd pull Pete aside after the season and say: "Isn't defense supposed to be your bread and butter? So why haven't you fielded a good one in years? You've gone through multiple coordinators. You've had final say in everything. So, what gives?"

And he better have a damn good answer. I'm sure he would feed her a bunch of feel good "we're about to turn the corner" crap. But the results don't lie. Pete has been failing this team. I can't stand our current DC, nor could I stand the 2 before him. Enough is enough. It's Pete.

 

[Fade]

Great read.

My takeaways:

1: We have drafted well on the defensive side of the ball. I only see one player out of the eight listed who has given us a return on capital. However, I also only see one player who has generated a positive return on the investment (Brooks) and no homeruns.

Elaborate a little more on this.

Rasheem Green
L.J. Collier
Marquise Blair
Cody Barton
Jordyn Brooks
Darrell Taylor
Boye Mafe (Too early to tell.)

Is drafting well, but also at the same time only 1 has given a return?

2: The Adams trade has been devastating!!! If you exclude Adams, our spend on $ and draft capital fall to near the bottom of the list in both categories. If you invest big like that, you better be right. And here, they weren't.

Play stupid games, like trading Franchise QB level assets for a box safety, win stupid prizes.

3: The money spent is embarrassing. The OP hit the nail on the head - money spent on run stuffers who can't stuff the run.
4: All of those top defensives have hit on their investments, and have elite talent. That's part luck and part preparation.

I'd say it's not really luck. They all have plans and they are being executed.

The Cowboys spend most of their money on offense. So they brought in Quinn, and gave him a bunch of picks to rebuild the defense on the cheap.

The Eagles spent their draft capitol on offense. So they are paying through the nose on defense, and mitigating that cost with voidable years.

The Patriots, nickel and dime, and go with a volume approach. With coaching and scheming up less talented players in mind, but ultimately having more players/depth than everybody else.

The Seahawks on the other hand are all over the place. And they have a throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks approach. While paying, and drafting run-stuffers and safeties like they are some of the most coveted players in the league. If that is their plan it is a horrible plan, and is why they are where they are.

 

[flv2]

The Seahawks are on pace to beat their franchise record for yards per game allowed on defense, set just last year. It's broken no matter how many assets they throw at it, it gets worse.

If they draft how I anticipate they will draft. They will be doubling and tripling the capitol spent as compared to the top defenses in the league, while being no where near close to them.

Based on how Pete/Hurtt and co. are doing now. This should be very troubling. There is something very wrong here. And giving them another year, (Which they will very likely get I fully admit.) could be an utter catastrophe setting the franchise back for years to come. This draft is that pivotal.

My fool's hope. Is somehow someway Pete has an epiphany, and decides to go get a real DC, that is well known. I'd say Fangio. But it looks like the 9ers got him waiting in the wings after they lose Ryans. So the 9ers get Fangio, and the Seahawks have Hurtt? We're screwed.

Go get Dan Quinn and stop this charade! Make him the HC and bump Pete up to an executive position if you have to. Do whatever it takes, but what they are doing now cannot continue.

Not arguing that either. Maybe the Seahawks 2022 defense would be a little better under a more experienced DC, or someone outside the comfort zone. However I don't think it would have made a significant difference. I don't think Carroll would have survived a 3-14 type season in 2022. I suspect management didn't want to bring in a high profile person from outside who could have been seen as an interim HC if things had gone badly. Equally ownership might have unwilling to guarantee an outsider pay for multiple seasons if Carroll's position wasn't secure.

I would be more concerned if changes aren't made to the coaching staff ahead of 2023.