Hawks D vs. Top 8 NFL Defenses in Asset Expenditure

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Tremendous breakdown, thanks for taking the time to spell this all out. I would say, the talent difference amongst all these teams isn't too different and I'd agree Seattle on paper is probably 10-15th. The past two drafts have recalibrated the roster and actually injected some guys who would start for other teams for once. The best of the best have a game wrecking edge rusher who every down is basically winning single/double teams - Garrett, Parsons, Bosa, etc. Nwosu is good but not in that pedigree and it's obviously very hard to find one. But him going out took this defense from somewhere in the average/below average range to terrible. So ultimately the difference between each is coaching, preparedness, scheme fit, and execution.

The only team from this list that I'd think is comparably built back end first $$$ wise is Buffalo and their safeties are actually pretty great. Their defense just falls apart at the end of games for whatever reason. But they are very aggressive, something Pete and co absolutely aren't.

What the Ravens did is ultimately what I want to see happen this offseason. More or less clean house of all these in-house Pete Carroll guys who won't get an NFL job anywhere else and hire someone from college to basically oversee everything on that side of the ball. There are a lot of excellent defenses in college that schematically carry an otherwise less talented roster compared to some of the best recruiters (cough, $$$). You can't just line up in your base coverage without any disguises or misdirection anymore, Pete said they are doing more of it than we were 10 years ago, but I don't think they do enough at all pre-snap to confuse quarterbacks. Ravens more or less have the same personnel but adjusted their scheme to create as much havoc and confusion as possible. I don't know why Pete is still so reliant on bend but don't break ideology, limit explosives (ha, don't even do that anymore) while not caring about total yards/TOP.
Yes. They should be playing like the Ravens or Vikings. The Seahawks have outstanding blitzing players at CB, S, and LBer.

Instead Pete rushes 4, sits back in soft zone. Hurtt was blitzing at near league avg. Midway through the year. (Which is a lot for the Seahawks), but somewhere around the Ravens game, Pete put a stop to that, and turned him into Ken Norton.
 
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The sad thing is that people should know this.
We've all seen the same FA signings and the same draft picks.
This shouldn't be news, because if you are a Seahawk fan you probably know who they drafted the past 5 years, and who they signed as FAs.
You probably also know who worked out and who didn't.

But some people have to see the whole thing laid out for them before they get it. We spend big (draft and cap) on defense but we get very little in return.

Then, if you look at the pieces...it looks puzzingly like it SHOULD much better. It becomes pretty clear shortly thereafter, it isn't the players but the plan. Not how they play, but how they are used.

Disappointing but not surprising.
There is a lot of copium in the fan base. They cling to the strangest things.

But finally, after years, and years, AND years. Most are finally sobering up to reality.
 
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Thanks, Fade. Lots of work, here.

What stands out to me is how many players have flashed, but don't seem to either be progressing, or, being used in a way that makes the defense better. The sum of this defense's parts is kind of an indictment when you consider the quality of many of these parts.
The right coach could easily turn it into a top 10 defense.

Minnesota has way less talent, and were the worst defense in the league last year. Brought in Brian Flores, and now are top 10, just like that.
 
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If the goal is using value invested, why do a retrospective analysis? That doesn't make sense unless your primary goal is making the team look bad with the benefit of hindsight. This is most obvious with Jamal, whose actual value, at the time of the trade, was 245 (1st) + 89 (3rd) + 80 (F1st) - 8 (F4th) = 406. (I omitted McDougald).

It would be fine if you were thorough and factored in value-added through trades. But you didn't. For example, the trades that eventually led to Blair netted Seattle over 200 points in overall draft capital and DK Metcalf (among others). Here, you've ignored the value added in trading back while including the value you lost in trading up. Why? To raise the total?
I debunked this in last year's thread.

Using that logic I would have to view Witherspoon as a 2nd rd pick, which makes no sense.

-It's draft capital spent-

This is how they chose to spend it.

Obfuscation attempts aside, you won't find a team who has invested heavier on defense than the Seattle Seahawks over the last 5 years.
 

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https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/12/...cking-worst-under-pete-carroll-nfl-statistics

https://x.com/mookiealexander/status/1734261027305595007?s=20

From a pure rankings perspective, this is the worst Seahawks defense by DVOA since 2010, when they finished 28th in Pete Carroll’s first season with the team. It’s worth reminding everyone that the 2010 Seahawks were a heavily rebuilt roster and still had a lot of Mike Holmgren and Jim Mora’s players on the squad. The only Pete Carroll acquisitions who started the majority of games on defense were Earl Thomas, Kentwan Balmer, and Chris Clemons. A 37-year-old Lawyer Milloy started all 16 games, for crying out loud! Aaron Curry! Colin Cole! Kelly Jennings! Remember those guys?

When you consider that this defense consists entirely of “Pete’s guys” as opposed to inheriting someone else’s team, this is arguably the worst defense Carroll has ever trotted out.

What does the Seahawks defense do well? Even with two turnovers on Sunday, Seattle is 18th in takeaways, 28th in rate of drives ending in a score, 31st in first downs allowed, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 26th in red zone touchdown rate, all while enjoying the 10th best average starting field position in the NFL. I’ve not even included the absurd number of penalties (whether legit calls or not) they’ve committed to extend opposition drives! I guess Seattle is still good at generating sacks, ranking 9th in raw total and 10th in sack rate, but as we saw against the 49ers, the sacks don’t matter as much if you give up a touchdown on the same drive.
 

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(2023 Edition)

Here it is, the thread you've all been waiting for part II !!! A year has passed, heavy investment was made once again into the defense, and wouldn't you know it? The Seahawks are bottom 5 AGAIN, inexplicably.

-The format: Top 8 (Top 25%) defenses in the NFL + the Seahawks.

-The assets they expended (Cash) + Draft Capital to build said top 8 defenses through 13 games.

-Rich Hill Valuation Model 2024 Draft Value Chart used to determine points for each pick, while factoring in trade ups.

-Cash spending via Arjun Menon on twitter.

-ESPN transaction wire to scan for any potentially missed trades.


=================
RAVENS
2nd (Yards), 2nd (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 24 out of 32 teams ($92M+)
Draft Capital: 1271 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd, '19 50 pts. Jaylon Ferguson
1st, '20 209 pts. Patrick Queen
3rd, '20 68 pts. Justin Madubuike
3rd, '20 37 pts. Tyre Phillips
1st, '21 190 pts. Odafe Oweh
3rd, '21 33 pts. Brandon Stephens
1st, '22 325 pts. Kyle Hamilton
2nd, '22 131 pts. David Ojabo
2nd, '22 118 pts. Roquan Smith (#53 + #148)
3rd, '22 61 pts. Travis Jones
3rd, '23 49 pts. Trenton Simpson
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (2), 3rd (6), 11 picks.

# Notes: The Ravens aren't spending a lot of cash relative to the some other top defenses, and they have a nice balanced spread when it comes to their draft picks. A job well done.

=================
49ERS
8th (Yards), 1st (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 1st out of 32 teams (Nearly $160M)
Draft Capital: 1245 pts.

First 3 Rounds: Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.) + '24 Future picks if applicable.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st '19, 717 pts. Nick Bosa
1st'20, 325 pts. Javon Kinlaw
3rd'21, 35 pts. Ambry Thomas
2nd'22, 86 pts. Drake Jackson
3rd'23, 48 pts. Ji'Ayir Brown
3rd'24, 34 pts. Chase Young
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (3), 6 picks.

# Notes: They threw the last compensatory pick of the 3rd round at the Commies for Chase Young. They haven't spent much draft capital at all on defense the last 3 seasons, this will come back to bite them in the years upcoming.

=================
BROWNS
1st (Yards), 14th (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 11th out of 32 teams ($110+M)
Draft Capital: 935 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'19, 131 pts. Greedy Williams (#49 + #144)
3rd'19, 56 pts. Sione Takitaki
2nd'20, 135 pts. Grant Delpit
3rd'20, 47 pts. Jordan Elliot
3rd'20, 38 pts. Jacob Phillips
1st'21, 223 pts. Greg Newsome II
2nd'21, 136 pts. Jeremia Owusu-Kaoramoah (#52 + #113)
3rd'22, 73 pts. Martin Emerson
3rd'22, 59 pts. Alex Wright
3rd'23, 37 Siaki Ika
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (1), 2nd (3), 3rd (6), 10 picks.

# Notes: The #1 YPG defense in the league would look a lot better if they didn't have the QB issues, which has put them in bad situations throughout the season, surrendering cheap points. No real crazy draft capital investment either in the last 5 years with so many of their draft picks going to DeShaun Watson.


=================
VIKINGS
10th (Yards), 5th (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 28th out of 32 teams ($85M+)
Draft Capital: 877 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
'19 N/A. All offense
1st '20, 261 pts. Jeff Gladney
3rd '20, 46 pts. Cameron Dantzler
3rd '21, 59 pts. Chazz Surratt
3rd '21, 45 pts. Patrick Jones II
1st '22, 184 pts. Lewis Cine
2nd '22, 172 pts. Andrew Booth Jr. (#53 + #77 + #192)
3rd '22, 76 pts. Brian Asamoah
3rd '23, 34 pts. Mekhi Blackmon
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (1), 3rd (5), 8 picks.

# Notes: Minnesota had the worst defense in the NFL in 2022. Having minimal investment with essentially the same guys, but with a quality DC hire, they are now a top 8 defense in the league, which is providing the best bang for the buck defense in the league. Coaching/Scheme > Talent.


=================
CHIEFS
6th (Yards), 3rd (Points)
=================

Cash Spending on Defense: 30th out of 32 teams ($75M+)
Draft Capital: 1076 pts.

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd '19, 82 pts. Juan Thornhill
3rd '19, 51 pts. Khalen Saunders
2nd '20, 82 pts. Willie Gay
2nd '21, 93 pts. Nick Bolton
1st '22, 265 pts. Trent McDuffie (#29 + #94 + #121)
1st '22, 196 pts. George Karlaftis
2nd '22, 84 pts. Bryan Cook
3rd '22, 33 pts. Leo Chenal
1st '23, 190 pts. Felix Anudike-Uzomah
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (4), 3rd (2), 9 picks.

# Notes: Amazing job by the Chiefs to build such an economical defense, while spending most of their money on offense.



================
JETS
5th (Yards), 8th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 3rd out of 32 teams ($135M+)
Draft Capital: 1773 pts


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 514 pts. Quinnen Williams
3rd'19, 73 pts. Jachai Polite
3rd'20, 73 pts. Ashtyn Davis
3rd'20, 57 pts. Jabari Zuniga
'21 - None (All Offense)
1st'22, 491 pts. Sauce Gardner
2nd+3rd'22, 250 pts. Jermaine Johnson II (Traded up: #35 + #69 + #163)
1st'23 315 pts. Will McDonald
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (1), 3rd (4), 8 picks.

# Notes: Heavy investment in both cash and draft capital is at least showing up on the field for them. They would be even better if the offense wasn't the worst in the league surrendering cheap points.


================
COWBOYS
3rd (Yards), 4th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 9th out of 32 teams ($118M+)
Draft Capital: 1258 pts.


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd'19, 93 pts. Trysten Hill
2nd'20, 112 pts. Trevon Diggs
3rd'20, 54 pts. Neville Gallimore
1st'21, 347 pts. Micah Parsons (Dan Quinn '21, fix the Defense.)
2nd'21, 135 pts. Kelvin Joseph
3rd'21, 63 pts. Osa Odighizuwa
3rd'21, 51 pts. Chauncey Golsten
3rd'21, 37 pts. Nahshon Wright
2nd'22, 98 pts. Sam Williams
1st'23, 223 pts. Mazi Smith
3rd'23, 45 pts. Demarvion Overshown
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (2), 2nd (3), 3rd (5), 10 picks.

# Notes: Quinn did an amazing job turning around the 32nd ranked defense in one off-season. They've been top 5 in all 3 seasons he's been the DC in Dallas since.

================
BILLS
14th (Yards), 6th (Points)
================

Cash Spending on Defense: 7th out of 32 teams ($128M+)
Draft Capital: 1174


First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 387 pts. Ed Oliver
2nd'20, 104 pts. A.J. Epenesa
1st'21, 196 pts. Gregory Rousseau
2nd'21, 86 pts. Carlos Basham Jr.
1st'22, 251 pts. Kaiir Elam (Traded up: #25 + #130)
3rd'22, 46 pts. Terrel Bernard
3rd,23, 44 pts. Dorian Williams
3rd'24, 60 pts. Rasul Douglas (#87 + #150)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (3), 2nd (2), 3rd (3), 8 picks.

#Notes: Defensive Head Coaches drag down teams and they underachieve. Sean McDermott is just another one in a long line, being the current poster child, having Josh Allen in his prime. This sort of underachievement was celebrated in Seattle for YEARS, and I was villainized for calling it out. I regret nothing.


==================
SEAHAWKS
28th (Yards), 27th (Points)
==================

Cash Spending on Defense: 2nd out of 32 teams ($138M+)
Draft Capital: 2237 pts. (WTF?)

First 3 Rounds Defense the Last 5 years (Expected Starters.)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1st'19, 203 pts. L.J. Collier
2nd'19, 124 pts. Marquise Blair
3rd'19, 51 pts. Cody Barton (Traded up #92 + #159 - #209)
1st'20, 216 pts. Jordyn Brooks
2nd+3rd'20, 127 pts. Darrell Taylor (Traded up #59 + #101)
1st+3rd'21+1st'22, 631 pts Jamal Adams (Trade: #23 + #86 + '22 #10 - '22 #109)
2nd'22, 149 pts. Boye Mafe
1st'23, 468 pts. Devin Witherspoon
2nd'23, 162 pts. Derick Hall
2nd'24, 104 pts. Leonard Williams (#54 as of this post)
-----------------------------------------
Totals: 1st (5), 2nd (5), 3rd (3), 13 picks.

Notes: Utter failure. Flushing assets year after year only to get worse. Featuring nearly DOUBLE the draft capital spent over the 49ers and all but 1 of the top 8 defenses in the league for that matter, while also spending the 2nd most cash in the league on defense, all of this investment to be a bottom 5 defense? Absolutely pathetic. Swapping puppet DCs will not fix this. five 1sts & five 2nds is absolute clown world to invest that much into one side of the ball in 5 years and be bottom 5.

The analogy would be like, imagine the Seahawks traded three 1st rounders for a QB, and made him the highest paid in the league, and he turns out to be one of the worst QBs in the league. That is the equivalent. This sort of incompetence is supposed to get people fired. That is the Seahawks Defense, and this isn't new.

I actually think they are talented, like 10-15. They are just so badly coached, being forced to play a style that doesn't fit their personnel, while being sloppy as hell. It is turning them into bottom 5. Either way, the blame lies with Pete. He is the architect. This is the defense he constructed. It's on him.

I haven't looked at all 32 teams, but I surmise Seattle is #1 in draft capital spent on defense over the last 5 years. And like I tried to tell folks last year, throwing more assets at the defense isn't going to fix it, as some claimed would be the way to fix the defense leading up to me doing this same thread last year to show them. They have systemic issues at the top with Pete. 12 months later, it is on full display once again for everyone to see and it is even worse!

Rankings in Cash Investment 2023:
------
1) 49ERS $159M+

--> SEAHAWKS $138M+ <----- Are Here

2) JETS $135M+
3) BILLS $128M+
4) COWBOYS $118M+
5) BROWNS $110M+
6) RAVENS $92M+
7) VIKINGS $85M+
8) CHIEFS $75M+


Rankings in Major Draft Capital Investment for Defensive Players Since 2019:
------

--> SEAHAWKS 2237 pts. <----- Are Here

1) JETS 1773 pts.
2) RAVENS 1271 pts.
3) 49ERS 1245 pts.
4) COWBOYS 1258 pts.
5) BILLS 1174 pts.
6) CHIEFS 1076 pts.
7) BROWNS 935 pts.
8) VIKINGS 877 pts.


To say the Seahawks are one of the worst coached and constructed defenses of the last 5 years is the understatement of the century.
That's a LOT of work, Dude. Thanks for that. To say the info is alarming would be a horrendous understatement.
 

DeSeahawk

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Goddamn those stats get more f'd up every time I look at them.
 

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Good post. There's no doubt whatsoever that the Hawks have not gotten an even decent ROI on either the trades they've made, picks they've made, FA signings they've made for their defense. PC is supposed to be a defensive coach, and he's either failed to evaluate talent properly, failed to coach whatever talent he had into respectability, or made short-sighted moves under the misbelief that the team was *just* a missing piece away from contending again.

I've been a fan for a long time, and I have a real hard time figuring out where to fairly apportion the blame. But PC is at the very top of the food chain. We all know that. And the buck stops there.

I was willing to give this great coach one more shot at redemption these last two years and productive drafts. But they've underperformed this year in such a way that I've finally thrown in the towel.

We need fresh blood, new leadership, a change of direction. It's as clear as day to me.
 
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knownone

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I debunked this in last year's thread.

Using that logic I would have to view Witherspoon as a 2nd rd pick, which makes no sense.

-It's draft capital spent-

This is how they chose to spend it.

Obfuscation attempts aside, you won't find a team who has invested heavier on defense than the Seattle Seahawks over the last 5 years.
You didn't debunk anything, though.

Yes. That's because using a draft trade value chart to make value judgments on a roster is functionally stupid analysis. But if you do it, you'd have to account for those issues by either eliminating all player trades—only looking at the value of drafted players—or by evaluating outgoing/incoming value at the time of the trade; otherwise, you are misusing the valuation system and only applying it when it's convenient. You'd do the same thing with the Frank Clark trade—which you've conveniently omitted. I wonder why.
 

cymatica

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You didn't debunk anything, though.

Yes. That's because using a draft trade value chart to make value judgments on a roster is functionally stupid analysis. But if you do it, you'd have to account for those issues by either eliminating all player trades—only looking at the value of drafted players—or by evaluating outgoing/incoming value at the time of the trade; otherwise, you are misusing the valuation system and only applying it when it's convenient. You'd do the same thing with the Frank Clark trade—which you've conveniently omitted. I wonder why.
Except he's using the same method when comparing with other teams. Not to mention there's no disputing they have the 2nd most cash spent on defense in 2023, behind the 49ers.

You can argue over technicalities of draft value on his method, but your really just splitting hairs. You can't argue they've invested heavily in the defense, more so than most teams, with poor results and no signs of improvement.
 

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Except he's using the same method when comparing with other teams. Not to mention there's no disputing they have the 2nd most cash spent on defense in 2023, behind the 49ers.

You can argue over technicalities of draft value on his method, but you’re really just splitting hairs. You can't argue they've invested heavily in the defense, more so than most teams, with poor results and no signs of improvement.
Well said.
 

Ozzy

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You didn't debunk anything, though.

Yes. That's because using a draft trade value chart to make value judgments on a roster is functionally stupid analysis. But if you do it, you'd have to account for those issues by either eliminating all player trades—only looking at the value of drafted players—or by evaluating outgoing/incoming value at the time of the trade; otherwise, you are misusing the valuation system and only applying it when it's convenient. You'd do the same thing with the Frank Clark trade—which you've conveniently omitted. I wonder why.
So are you arguing that Seattle hasn’t invested a ton into a defense that ranks almost dead last? Your last snarky comment of “I wonder why” seems to imply that. Why haven’t you injected your thought on the main point?
 

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Except he's using the same method when comparing with other teams. Not to mention there's no disputing they have the 2nd most cash spent on defense in 2023, behind the 49ers.

You can argue over technicalities of draft value on his method, but your really just splitting hairs. You can't argue they've invested heavily in the defense, more so than most teams, with poor results and no signs of improvement.
Is he? Why didn't he include Frank Clark on the Chiefs? And why can't we dispute that? They are 8th in defensive spending league-wide, and they've been average or blow in every season besides this one since 2019.

I'm not arguing technicalities. He's literally misusing the trade value chart to suit his conclusion, restricting his sample, and flat-out ignoring other trades from his equation. Similarly, he's wrong even if we use his bastardized valuations. Seattle has not invested more in their defense than any other team using his criteria. Jacksonville and Detroit have invested much more.
 

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Is he? Why didn't he include Frank Clark on the Chiefs? And why can't we dispute that? They are 8th in defensive spending league-wide, and they've been average or blow in every season besides this one since 2019.

I'm not arguing technicalities. He's literally misusing the trade value chart to suit his conclusion, restricting his sample, and flat-out ignoring other trades from his equation. Similarly, he's wrong even if we use his bastardized valuations. Seattle has not invested more in their defense than any other team using his criteria. Jacksonville and Detroit have invested much more.
So Seattle is top 5 then? lol come on man it feels like you’re nitpicking minor points and you refuse to respond to the man point of all of this. Seattle has invested a lot and yet are near bottom of the league. If Fade is wrong explain how. Where is our defensive investment? Middle of the pack? League low? Or is your point the defense is actually good?
 

knownone

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So Seattle is top 5 then? lol come on man it feels like you’re nitpicking minor points and you refuse to respond to the man point of all of this. Seattle has invested a lot and yet are near bottom of the league. If Fade is wrong explain how. Where is our defensive investment? Middle of the pack? League low? Or is your point the defense is actually good?
What? Where did I "refuse" to respond to anything? That didn't happen.

Do I think Seattle has invested twice as much in their defense as many of the above teams? No. As stated above, that's an issue with using a draft pick trade value chart to evaluate defensive investment. That's not nitpicking.

So are you arguing that Seattle hasn’t invested a ton into a defense that ranks almost dead last? Your last snarky comment of “I wonder why” seems to imply that. Why haven’t you injected your thought on the main point?
Did you read what I wrote? My "snarky" comment concerns the Frank Clark trade not being included in the valuation.
 

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What? Where did I "refuse" to respond to anything? That didn't happen.

Do I think Seattle has invested twice as much in their defense as many of the above teams? No. As stated above, that's an issue with using a draft pick trade value chart to evaluate defensive investment. That's not nitpicking.


Did you read what I wrote? My "snarky" comment concerns the Frank Clark trade not being included in the valuation.
I’ll ask it again. Is fade wrong that Seattle has invested a ton and the result is a bottom level defense? You disagree with the numbers fine, the main point remains though
 

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I’ll ask it again. Is fade wrong that Seattle has invested a ton and the result is a bottom level defense? You disagree with the numbers fine, the main point remains though
Okay. I'll repeat it: Yes. Fade is wrong. Seattle hasn't invested a ton in their defense relative to other teams. The only way you achieve that conclusion is through time restricting your analysis, overvaluing draft picks, and using hindsight to value trades.
 

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Okay. I'll repeat it: Yes. Fade is wrong. Seattle hasn't invested a ton in their defense relative to other teams. The only way you achieve that conclusion is through time restricting your analysis, overvaluing draft picks, and using hindsight to value trades.
Ok then where does Seattle rank in regards to total investment and/or capital in relation to results? I count multiple firsts and multiple second round picks (5?). That’s not counting a first against Bobby because you got him a second time around. That alone is a lot so I’d be curious where your numbers put us if Fade is so far off and I’m not being snarky. To me though even if we concede your points there is still a ton of investment being made and the defense is near the bottom of the league.

I guess my point is, it’s a very hard sell to convince me Seattle hasnt made a ton of effort and investment into the defense. KJ, Brock and Salk and others have all made the same point Fade has
 
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