Separation of Top End WRs.

SonicHawk

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TLDRs: Geno is missing a superstar WR. Sign Chris Godwin in FA. Geno's TD numbers are "unlucky". Don't replace Geno with another middling QB and expect different results. Find a superstar QB or WR, one or the other or both.

I dove into a bit of data and had some interesting results.

This first list I'm going to compare 3 QBs and their top 4 receiving targets that aren't RBs. I'm going to look at all their targets when they have a separation of >3 yards. Baker and Darnold both have had really solid years while Geno's year have lagged behind in the TDs. They have similar INT%.



Geno Smith - 28% of Total Targets To Primary Targets with Separation.

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
DK Metcalf1033433%3397%
JSN1325945%5390%
Lockett702840%2486%
Fant583357%2885%
Primary Targets363154 (3 INT)42.4%138 (5 TD)89.6%
All Targets551282 (4 INT)51.1%248 (9 TD)88%

Sam Darnold - 27%

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Justin Jefferson1455739%4986%
Jalen Nailor381847%1689%
TJ Hockenson542343%2087%
Jordan Addison933942%3282%
Primary Targets330137 (0 INT)41.5%117 (11 TD)85.4%
All Targets504238 (1 INT)47.2%207 (19 TD)87%

Baker Mayfield - 21%

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Mike Evans962930%2483%
Cade Otton873439%2779%
Chris Godwin622642%26100%
Jalen McMillan522446%2083%
Primary Targets297113 (1 INT)38%97 (11 TD)85.8%
All Targets538256 (1 INT)47.5%224 (21 TD)87.5%


Conclusion
Geno is targeting both his primary receiving targets and in general all targets at or higher rates than the other QBs with drastically different results. His % of TDs is the exact same as the other QBs for this group. Even though he is connecting with these targets at a higher percentage than the other QBs, he lacks TDs.

So, let's look at those contested balls. Maybe it's such bad decision making.


Receiver Name (total targets) - Receiver Separation on Targets < 1 yard (% of total targets) / Receptions / Completion %

Geno Smith - 12.1% of All Attempts

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
DK Metcalf26623%
JSN20525%
Lockett14536%
Fant400%
Primary Targets64 (3 INT)16 (0 TD)25%
All Targets67 (4 INT)17 (0 TD)25.3%

Sam Darnold - 13.3%

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Justin Jefferson301136%
Jalen Nailor5240%
TJ Hockenson5240%
Jordan Addison15533%
Primary Targets55 (3 INT)20 (5 TD)36.3%
All Targets67 (3 INT)25 (5 TD)37.3%

Baker Mayfield - 10.8%

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Mike Evans17953%
Cade Otton8112.5%
Chris Godwin7343%
Jalen McMillan500%
Primary Targets37 (4 INT)13 (6 TD)35.1%
All Targets58 (4 INT)23 (7 TD)39.6%


Ok, so Geno is NOT targeting receivers at a higher rate with low separation and once again while his counterparts have equal or greater INTs, he doesn't have the complimentary touchdowns.

Let's breakout these win % on these likely 50/50 balls or tight windows.


Win Rate Ordered On Contested
Mike Evans <-- Baker Top Target
--50%--
Chris Godwin
Jalen Nailor
TJ Hockenson
--40%--
Justin Jefferson <-- Darnold Top Target
Tyler Lockett
Jordan Addison
--30%--
JSN
DK <-- Geno Top Target

--20%--
Cade Otton
--10%--
Noah Fant / Jalen McMillan

--------------------------------------------------------------

These two sets of data only account for about 40% of attempts. 50% of INTs and 50% of TDs for Geno. They account for 72% of Baker's TDs and 33% of his INTs. And for Darnold? 69% of TDs and 33% of his INTs.

It just doesn't make much sense how Geno's completion rates can be so high on these uncontested and have almost nothing to show for it besides yards.

Oh, I know -- Redzone! Let's compare RZ numbers where the receiver has 3 yards+ of separation.

QBRedzone AttemptsCompletionsCompletion %TDsINTTD%% of All TDs
Geno Smith241979.16%4116.6%23.5%
Baker Mayfield383797.4%11029%28.2%
Sam Darnold434093%15034.9%42.8%

Ok, that was a bit more interesting than expected. I'm going to dive into redzone on 50/50 balls.

QBRedzone AttemptsCompletionsCompletion %TDsINTTD%% of All TDs
Geno Smith1500%040%0%
Baker Mayfield16743.75%7043.75%18%
Sam Darnold10550%50100%14.2%

I think it's important to not understate the importance of Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson who absolutely DOMINATED these plays.

Both Darnold and Baker have relied (correctly) on their SUPERSTAR WRs. They don't have tendencies that are unique from Geno, in fact Geno has shown some better performance (or better to state margin of error of the other QBs).

A new superstar QB can lead this team to great things, but replacing Geno with a Darnold/Baker level QB will yield the same results with the same supporting cast and crew.
 
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SonicHawk

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So all they need to do is find a superstar qb?

Dime a dozen
No, that's clearly not what the conclusion was. The conclusion just put more emphasis on not replacing Geno with another mid-level QB and expecting different results as part of the limited production was the ineffectiveness of our receiving group. That Darnold and Baker's success is not just that they have played well, but they have a talented receiving corps who has gotten the job done.

That DK and JSN should neither be considered a #1 option. That JSN's success was in part due to both his ability to get open and the % of receptions where he was targeted as an "open" receiver. As opposed to DK who was targeted far less as an "open" receiver and was ineffective in 50/50 balls. This was in comparison to receivers like JJ, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin etc who not only won 50/50 balls, but won them in the redzone.

How you solve this? A whole myriad of ways -- number one, not looking at them as #1 options who will dominate the ball, and more like #2 options who have to be gameplanned to get open. If you can upgrade at QB, of course that helps. If you can upgrade and find a real #1 WR, that will also help enormously (Chris Godwin is a UFA).

It could be as simple as improving the offensive line and increasing run productivity, meaning your #2 receiving corps has a chance to actually get open since the defense respects the run (which Geno proves he is able to complete).

The entire excercise was an attempt to quanitfy where Geno has succeeded and failed and compared him to similar talent level QBs. To understand why he has similar Yards, CMP% and INT numbers as these QBs but not TDs.
 

Scout

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Baker Mayfield is still cooking with only Mike Evans as his only true WR on the Bucs roster currently that has a decent separation grade. Godwin has been out since Oct 21st when he sustained that injury against the Ravens.

At one point the Bucs were missing both Godwin and Evans and still were an offensive juggernaut trucking along using Bucky Irving/White/Tucker RB committee with TE Otton dabbled in. Only recently has WR McMillan come on as a rookie and has become a TD machine.

The key ingredient for the Bucs offense has been the constant improvement of their OL that kept them in contention despite WR injuries and also helped transform their 32 ranked running game back to back years into an elite running game this year.

Godwin is a very good WR but he isn't better than DK Metcalf on the boundary. DK Metcalf is a clear #1 on the boundary while Godwin is clearly an elite player in the slot. This is why Godwin's numbers were poor early least season as Canales had him mostly on the boundary. It took Godwin's wife complaining for him to start to see more targets his way late last season. And to have Canales playing him more in the slot and his production ticked up. Fast forward to this year and Godwin was putting up elite numbers in Coen's offense from the slot before his injury.

Jefferson and Mike Evans are HOF caliber WRs so it is hard to use them as an example as they are beyond ordinary #1 WRs.
 
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SonicHawk

SonicHawk

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There is more to a WR game than just separation and arguing that the Seahawks lack a #1 based on separation is a very bold argument.
I guess defining #1 or not is not the best way of going about it. But treating either JSN or DK as 50/50 ball guys is. They can both be extremely talented, high end 1k+ yard receivers. I think JSN has proven to be someone that safeties have to "lean" to as much as DK. Maybe we have two #1s but no back of the endzone jumpball guys. I think this helps in defining what I'm actually trying to get at. Geno's completion % and the volume of completions for "wide open" is extremely high, so it's not as if DK and JSN aren't necessarily effective WRs.
Baker Mayfield is still cooking with only Mike Evans as his only true WR on the Bucs roster currently that has a decent separation grade. Godwin has been out since Oct 21st when he sustained that injury against the Ravens.
I think this just highlights how big of a deal that Mike Evans is.
At one point the Bucs were missing both Godwin and Evans and still were an offensive juggernaut trucking along using Bucky Irving/White/Tucker RB committee with TE Otton dabbled in. Only recently has WR McMillan come on as a rookie and has become a TD machine.
Bucs went 0-3 in that span that Evans was out. Baker had 116, 200, and 330 on 50 attempts with 2 picks vs a marginal Falcons team.
The key ingredient for the Bucs offense has been the constant improvement of their OL that kept them in contention despite WR injuries and also helped transform their 32 ranked running game back to back years into an elite running game this year.
No doubt. Both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving have had solid years. The fact that they have been able to be as efficient with the passing game and also have a top 5 ypg running the ball makes them a serious offensive contender.
 

SweepSanFran

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TLDRs: Geno is missing a superstar WR. Sign Chris Godwin in FA. Geno's TD numbers are "unlucky". Don't replace Geno with another middling QB and expect different results. Find a superstar QB or WR, one or the other or both.

I dove into a bit of data and had some interesting results.

This first list I'm going to compare 3 QBs and their top 4 receiving targets that aren't RBs. I'm going to look at all their targets when they have a separation of >3 yards. Baker and Darnold both have had really solid years while Geno's year have lagged behind in the TDs. They have similar INT%.



Geno Smith - 28% of Total Targets To Primary Targets with Separation.

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
DK Metcalf1033433%3397%
JSN1325945%5390%
Lockett702840%2486%
Fant583357%2885%
Primary Targets363154 (3 INT)42.4%138 (5 TD)89.6%
All Targets551282 (4 INT)51.1%248 (9 TD)88%

Sam Darnold - 27%

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Justin Jefferson1455739%4986%
Jalen Nailor381847%1689%
TJ Hockenson542343%2087%
Jordan Addison933942%3282%
Primary Targets330137 (0 INT)41.5%117 (11 TD)85.4%
All Targets504238 (1 INT)47.2%207 (19 TD)87%

Baker Mayfield - 21%

NameSeason TargetsSeparation Targets% of Total TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Mike Evans962930%2483%
Cade Otton873439%2779%
Chris Godwin622642%26100%
Jalen McMillan522446%2083%
Primary Targets297113 (1 INT)38%97 (11 TD)85.8%
All Targets538256 (1 INT)47.5%224 (21 TD)87.5%


Conclusion
Geno is targeting both his primary receiving targets and in general all targets at or higher rates than the other QBs with drastically different results. His % of TDs is the exact same as the other QBs for this group. Even though he is connecting with these targets at a higher percentage than the other QBs, he lacks TDs.

So, let's look at those contested balls. Maybe it's such bad decision making.


Receiver Name (total targets) - Receiver Separation on Targets < 1 yard (% of total targets) / Receptions / Completion %

Geno Smith - 12.1% of All Attempts

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
DK Metcalf26623%
JSN20525%
Lockett14536%
Fant400%
Primary Targets64 (3 INT)16 (0 TD)25%
All Targets67 (4 INT)17 (0 TD)25.3%

Sam Darnold - 13.3%

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Justin Jefferson301136%
Jalen Nailor5240%
TJ Hockenson5240%
Jordan Addison15533%
Primary Targets55 (3 INT)20 (5 TD)36.3%
All Targets67 (3 INT)25 (5 TD)37.3%

Baker Mayfield - 10.8%

NameLow Separation TargetsReceptionsCompletion %
Mike Evans17953%
Cade Otton8112.5%
Chris Godwin7343%
Jalen McMillan500%
Primary Targets37 (4 INT)13 (6 TD)35.1%
All Targets58 (4 INT)23 (7 TD)39.6%


Ok, so Geno is NOT targeting receivers at a higher rate with low separation and once again while his counterparts have equal or greater INTs, he doesn't have the complimentary touchdowns.

Let's breakout these win % on these likely 50/50 balls or tight windows.


Win Rate Ordered On Contested
Mike Evans <-- Baker Top Target
--50%--
Chris Godwin
Jalen Nailor
TJ Hockenson
--40%--
Justin Jefferson <-- Darnold Top Target
Tyler Lockett
Jordan Addison
--30%--
JSN
DK <-- Geno Top Target

--20%--
Cade Otton
--10%--
Noah Fant / Jalen McMillan

--------------------------------------------------------------

These two sets of data only account for about 40% of attempts. 50% of INTs and 50% of TDs for Geno. They account for 72% of Baker's TDs and 33% of his INTs. And for Darnold? 69% of TDs and 33% of his INTs.

It just doesn't make much sense how Geno's completion rates can be so high on these uncontested and have almost nothing to show for it besides yards.

Oh, I know -- Redzone! Let's compare RZ numbers where the receiver has 3 yards+ of separation.

QBRedzone AttemptsCompletionsCompletion %TDsINTTD%% of All TDs
Geno Smith241979.16%4116.6%23.5%
Baker Mayfield383797.4%11029%28.2%
Sam Darnold434093%15034.9%42.8%

Ok, that was a bit more interesting than expected. I'm going to dive into redzone on 50/50 balls.

QBRedzone AttemptsCompletionsCompletion %TDsINTTD%% of All TDs
Geno Smith1500%040%0%
Baker Mayfield16743.75%7043.75%18%
Sam Darnold10550%50100%14.2%

I think it's important to not understate the importance of Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson who absolutely DOMINATED these plays.

Both Darnold and Baker have relied (correctly) on their SUPERSTAR WRs. They don't have tendencies that are unique from Geno, in fact Geno has shown some better performance (or better to state margin of error of the other QBs).

A new superstar QB can lead this team to great things, but replacing Geno with a Darnold/Baker level QB will yield the same results with the same supporting cast and crew.
Man that is putting in the work, much appreciated. I think this should point out the fact that we really dont have a true superstar at WR yet. If we were able to get a true #1 maybe Geno would have better TD/INT ratio, hopefully. I am not on the train that Geno is our savior but we could do a lot worse. Fix the OL and get a true #1, run the ball better and lets see where we go then. I think you have a true #1, or at least not a lazy #1, and Grubbs system may look a lot better.
 

Ozzy

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This is super cool so thanks for sharing!

Separation is tough because it can almost be viewed as a quarterback stat too at times. When does the QB throw it? Is a guy picky like Lamar? Does a team play against a lot of zone coverages? Is Geno not processing stuff fast enough and throws guys into contested or tighter windows? If he is would replacing him with Baker really lead to the same results if Baker doesn't do that? I'm not 100% sure.

Now some of that was answered at least a little bit by showing a guy like Evans who is a monster and can dominate a DB with his size. DK just doesn't do that unfortunately.

My contention with Geno is his decision making in crucial areas of the field. It doesn't surprise me he scores well overall because between the 20's he's really good. It's just hard to quantify how bad he is in the red zone or the magnitude of when he makes his mistakes. The ball that should've been another red zone pick that he threw against Chicago that he was lucky was dropped. Would a Darnold, Baker etc make as many of those mistakes each year as Geno? I would argue no.

But this was super cool and eye opening for sure. Seattle needs to reevaluate what they do moving forward with Geno to put him in a better position to succeed for sure. Good stuff Sonic.
 

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It's literally everyone else that's the problem for the Geno stans. So, I guess all we need is a new OL, new receivers, a better running game, a better coordinator, and better home fans and Geno will be awesome in three years for his age 38 season, where like three QBs ever have led a team to anything.
 

CouchLogic

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It's literally everyone else that's the problem for the Geno stans. So, I guess all we need is a new OL, new receivers, a better running game, a better coordinator, and better home fans and Geno will be awesome in three years for his age 38 season, where like three QBs ever have led a team to anything.
200
 
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SonicHawk

SonicHawk

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It's literally everyone else that's the problem for the Geno stans. So, I guess all we need is a new OL, new receivers, a better running game, a better coordinator, and better home fans and Geno will be awesome in three years for his age 38 season, where like three QBs ever have led a team to anything.
This team isn't missing the playoffs solely because of Geno and there are finite things you can do in the offseason. All I was attempting to do was compare some of Geno's stats in detail with some of his frequent comparisons. Especially as players like Darnold may hit FA and Seattle might look at him over Geno as a replacement.

The more stats we look at the better picture of "what went wrong" we can really identify as opposed to "GENO BAD". Geno may be bad, but how was he bad, and how much was it a symptom of the team around him, the scheme, luck, etc.

I can only assume Seattle doesn't extend Geno and may ship him off for pennies on the dollar to sign an extension somewhere else.

No matter who is QB next year and moving forward there is more to learn about where Seattle struggles and succeeds.
 

Wsumatt1982

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I am a big Chris Godwin fan but 2 problems. A lot of injuries and he is by far his best in the slot (we already have that for much younger and much cheaper)
 

OrangeGravy

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Man that is putting in the work, much appreciated. I think this should point out the fact that we really dont have a true superstar at WR yet. If we were able to get a true #1 maybe Geno would have better TD/INT ratio, hopefully. I am not on the train that Geno is our savior but we could do a lot worse. Fix the OL and get a true #1, run the ball better and lets see where we go then. I think you have a true #1, or at least not a lazy #1, and Grubbs system may look a lot better.
I think more than having a true #1, what we need is a WR and preferably a TE that excel at attacking the ball in the air in traffic. We just need pass catchers that can win at the catch point in high leverage situations, 3rd/4th down and the deep redzone.
Still that really only solves half of the problem on offense. We'd have more TDs and Geno's numbers would reflect his play better, but we'd still struggle against good teams with no running game
 

OrangeGravy

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I'll also add that our WR group is wildly overrated. It's above average, but there's a significant gap between ours and the top groups in the league. DK being really good at his good stuff and really bad at his bad stuff + Tyler is very limiting. Replacing Tyler with a legit WR, I think would put this group on pretty even footing with where most Seahawks fans "think" our WR group is
 

toffee

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I'll also add that our WR group is wildly overrated. It's above average, but there's a significant gap between ours and the top groups in the league. DK being really good at his good stuff and really bad at his bad stuff + Tyler is very limiting. Replacing Tyler with a legit WR, I think would put this group on pretty even footing with where most Seahawks fans "think" our WR group is
I was counting on Broncos calling for Lockett when Wilson was struggling there. That way we can trade away Lockett and move on.
 
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