SonicHawk
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TLDRs: Geno is missing a superstar WR. Sign Chris Godwin in FA. Geno's TD numbers are "unlucky". Don't replace Geno with another middling QB and expect different results. Find a superstar QB or WR, one or the other or both.
I dove into a bit of data and had some interesting results.
This first list I'm going to compare 3 QBs and their top 4 receiving targets that aren't RBs. I'm going to look at all their targets when they have a separation of >3 yards. Baker and Darnold both have had really solid years while Geno's year have lagged behind in the TDs. They have similar INT%.
Geno Smith - 28% of Total Targets To Primary Targets with Separation.
Sam Darnold - 27%
Baker Mayfield - 21%
Conclusion
Geno is targeting both his primary receiving targets and in general all targets at or higher rates than the other QBs with drastically different results. His % of TDs is the exact same as the other QBs for this group. Even though he is connecting with these targets at a higher percentage than the other QBs, he lacks TDs.
So, let's look at those contested balls. Maybe it's such bad decision making.
Receiver Name (total targets) - Receiver Separation on Targets < 1 yard (% of total targets) / Receptions / Completion %
Geno Smith - 12.1% of All Attempts
Sam Darnold - 13.3%
Baker Mayfield - 10.8%
Ok, so Geno is NOT targeting receivers at a higher rate with low separation and once again while his counterparts have equal or greater INTs, he doesn't have the complimentary touchdowns.
Let's breakout these win % on these likely 50/50 balls or tight windows.
Win Rate Ordered On Contested
Mike Evans <-- Baker Top Target
--50%--
Chris Godwin
Jalen Nailor
TJ Hockenson
--40%--
Justin Jefferson <-- Darnold Top Target
Tyler Lockett
Jordan Addison
--30%--
JSN
DK <-- Geno Top Target
--20%--
Cade Otton
--10%--
Noah Fant / Jalen McMillan
--------------------------------------------------------------
These two sets of data only account for about 40% of attempts. 50% of INTs and 50% of TDs for Geno. They account for 72% of Baker's TDs and 33% of his INTs. And for Darnold? 69% of TDs and 33% of his INTs.
It just doesn't make much sense how Geno's completion rates can be so high on these uncontested and have almost nothing to show for it besides yards.
Oh, I know -- Redzone! Let's compare RZ numbers where the receiver has 3 yards+ of separation.
Ok, that was a bit more interesting than expected. I'm going to dive into redzone on 50/50 balls.
I think it's important to not understate the importance of Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson who absolutely DOMINATED these plays.
Both Darnold and Baker have relied (correctly) on their SUPERSTAR WRs. They don't have tendencies that are unique from Geno, in fact Geno has shown some better performance (or better to state margin of error of the other QBs).
A new superstar QB can lead this team to great things, but replacing Geno with a Darnold/Baker level QB will yield the same results with the same supporting cast and crew.
I dove into a bit of data and had some interesting results.
This first list I'm going to compare 3 QBs and their top 4 receiving targets that aren't RBs. I'm going to look at all their targets when they have a separation of >3 yards. Baker and Darnold both have had really solid years while Geno's year have lagged behind in the TDs. They have similar INT%.
Geno Smith - 28% of Total Targets To Primary Targets with Separation.
Name | Season Targets | Separation Targets | % of Total Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DK Metcalf | 103 | 34 | 33% | 33 | 97% |
JSN | 132 | 59 | 45% | 53 | 90% |
Lockett | 70 | 28 | 40% | 24 | 86% |
Fant | 58 | 33 | 57% | 28 | 85% |
Primary Targets | 363 | 154 (3 INT) | 42.4% | 138 (5 TD) | 89.6% |
All Targets | 551 | 282 (4 INT) | 51.1% | 248 (9 TD) | 88% |
Sam Darnold - 27%
Name | Season Targets | Separation Targets | % of Total Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Jefferson | 145 | 57 | 39% | 49 | 86% |
Jalen Nailor | 38 | 18 | 47% | 16 | 89% |
TJ Hockenson | 54 | 23 | 43% | 20 | 87% |
Jordan Addison | 93 | 39 | 42% | 32 | 82% |
Primary Targets | 330 | 137 (0 INT) | 41.5% | 117 (11 TD) | 85.4% |
All Targets | 504 | 238 (1 INT) | 47.2% | 207 (19 TD) | 87% |
Baker Mayfield - 21%
Name | Season Targets | Separation Targets | % of Total Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Evans | 96 | 29 | 30% | 24 | 83% |
Cade Otton | 87 | 34 | 39% | 27 | 79% |
Chris Godwin | 62 | 26 | 42% | 26 | 100% |
Jalen McMillan | 52 | 24 | 46% | 20 | 83% |
Primary Targets | 297 | 113 (1 INT) | 38% | 97 (11 TD) | 85.8% |
All Targets | 538 | 256 (1 INT) | 47.5% | 224 (21 TD) | 87.5% |
Conclusion
Geno is targeting both his primary receiving targets and in general all targets at or higher rates than the other QBs with drastically different results. His % of TDs is the exact same as the other QBs for this group. Even though he is connecting with these targets at a higher percentage than the other QBs, he lacks TDs.
So, let's look at those contested balls. Maybe it's such bad decision making.
Receiver Name (total targets) - Receiver Separation on Targets < 1 yard (% of total targets) / Receptions / Completion %
Geno Smith - 12.1% of All Attempts
Name | Low Separation Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|
DK Metcalf | 26 | 6 | 23% |
JSN | 20 | 5 | 25% |
Lockett | 14 | 5 | 36% |
Fant | 4 | 0 | 0% |
Primary Targets | 64 (3 INT) | 16 (0 TD) | 25% |
All Targets | 67 (4 INT) | 17 (0 TD) | 25.3% |
Sam Darnold - 13.3%
Name | Low Separation Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|
Justin Jefferson | 30 | 11 | 36% |
Jalen Nailor | 5 | 2 | 40% |
TJ Hockenson | 5 | 2 | 40% |
Jordan Addison | 15 | 5 | 33% |
Primary Targets | 55 (3 INT) | 20 (5 TD) | 36.3% |
All Targets | 67 (3 INT) | 25 (5 TD) | 37.3% |
Baker Mayfield - 10.8%
Name | Low Separation Targets | Receptions | Completion % |
---|---|---|---|
Mike Evans | 17 | 9 | 53% |
Cade Otton | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
Chris Godwin | 7 | 3 | 43% |
Jalen McMillan | 5 | 0 | 0% |
Primary Targets | 37 (4 INT) | 13 (6 TD) | 35.1% |
All Targets | 58 (4 INT) | 23 (7 TD) | 39.6% |
Ok, so Geno is NOT targeting receivers at a higher rate with low separation and once again while his counterparts have equal or greater INTs, he doesn't have the complimentary touchdowns.
Let's breakout these win % on these likely 50/50 balls or tight windows.
Win Rate Ordered On Contested
Mike Evans <-- Baker Top Target
--50%--
Chris Godwin
Jalen Nailor
TJ Hockenson
--40%--
Justin Jefferson <-- Darnold Top Target
Tyler Lockett
Jordan Addison
--30%--
JSN
DK <-- Geno Top Target
--20%--
Cade Otton
--10%--
Noah Fant / Jalen McMillan
--------------------------------------------------------------
These two sets of data only account for about 40% of attempts. 50% of INTs and 50% of TDs for Geno. They account for 72% of Baker's TDs and 33% of his INTs. And for Darnold? 69% of TDs and 33% of his INTs.
It just doesn't make much sense how Geno's completion rates can be so high on these uncontested and have almost nothing to show for it besides yards.
Oh, I know -- Redzone! Let's compare RZ numbers where the receiver has 3 yards+ of separation.
QB | Redzone Attempts | Completions | Completion % | TDs | INT | TD% | % of All TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Geno Smith | 24 | 19 | 79.16% | 4 | 1 | 16.6% | 23.5% |
Baker Mayfield | 38 | 37 | 97.4% | 11 | 0 | 29% | 28.2% |
Sam Darnold | 43 | 40 | 93% | 15 | 0 | 34.9% | 42.8% |
Ok, that was a bit more interesting than expected. I'm going to dive into redzone on 50/50 balls.
QB | Redzone Attempts | Completions | Completion % | TDs | INT | TD% | % of All TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Geno Smith | 15 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0% |
Baker Mayfield | 16 | 7 | 43.75% | 7 | 0 | 43.75% | 18% |
Sam Darnold | 10 | 5 | 50% | 5 | 0 | 100% | 14.2% |
I think it's important to not understate the importance of Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson who absolutely DOMINATED these plays.
Both Darnold and Baker have relied (correctly) on their SUPERSTAR WRs. They don't have tendencies that are unique from Geno, in fact Geno has shown some better performance (or better to state margin of error of the other QBs).
A new superstar QB can lead this team to great things, but replacing Geno with a Darnold/Baker level QB will yield the same results with the same supporting cast and crew.