Some Concerning Geno Stats

massari

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From Seahawks Draft Blog:

Hugh Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

That’s staggering.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.

Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.

More and more hoping they let him walk if it takes close to $30M APY to bring him back.
 

nanomoz

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Geno deserves a ton of credit. He surprised pretty much everyone in 2022.

But Millen makes good points. Even if you aren't concerrned with hypotheticals like the ones Millen raises, Geno simply wasn't as good from the Tampa Bay game-on. Not statistically, and certainly not according to what my eyes saw.

They have to let him test the market, and I think they will. It's the only way he's going to come back on a reasonable deal.
 

SoulfishHawk

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Be careful. Scutter's head might start spining around. You have legit concern about the almighty Geno Smith getting paid too much and/or maybe not being as good as his "stats" might show. At least in several games.
 

Maelstrom787

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Be careful. Scutter's head might start spining around. You have legit concern about the almighty Geno Smith getting paid too much and/or maybe not being as good as his "stats" might show. At least in several games.
This post isn't any better. Do you ever talk football, or do you just talk about posters persecuting others?
 

scutterhawk

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Be careful. Scutter's head might start spining around. You have legit concern about the almighty Geno Smith getting paid too much and/or maybe not being as good as his "stats" might show. At least in several games.
In YOUR HEAD & LOVIN' IT HAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!
 

James in PA

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I like and appreciate what Geno did this year, but he is not the long term answer. I know everyone wants to draft D line help (as do I) but if the 2 big dawgs are gone by the time we pick at 5 (likely), Im not opposed at all to drafting a QB with that first pick. One of these dudes WILL be there at 5: Anderson, Carter, Young, Stroud, Levis. Taking Wilson or Murphy at 5 feels like a reach to me. Just my opinion, they are a drop off from Anderson and Carter.
 

GemCity

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I’m not for $30+ but, I see him getting it.

We’re in another great position draft wise.
I would like them to snatch a QB (if they love a guy ofc). If Geno is signed, they could take a “risk/project” if necessary along the lines of Richardson or Levis. They could sit behind Geno…who imo, would be one of the best guys to sit under. Geno’s been there before and would remember what helped him along when he was a backup. Geno absolutely plays within the system and typically doesn’t make that many mistakes. It would be a great opportunity for a rookie QB to learn from.


Then again, if we think we’re going to win it all in the next 2 years, I can see us paying Geno, re-signing Lock….and hopefully, drafting accordingly.

I don’t think we are 1-2 years out. Thus…I would definitely consider snatching a QB.

Geno’s contract and who we draft this year are going to tell us exactly what PC and JS think our potential is/will be.
 

BASF

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Two things never get brought up in these threads unless I interject the first point: Waldron calling too many of the same routes from the same formation led to a lot of those turnover worthy throws. You can only go to the well so many times before the predators know they can eat you on that path. This need to blame Geno for throwing where Waldron has dictated smacks of confirmation bias against Geno and giving Waldron a free pass.

The second point is something a few others have brought up, but seems to be glossed over by the I don't want Geno making this much money crowd. Thirty plus million aav is market value for what Geno accomplished last season. They each make their excuses for their perspective, but it boils down to "I don't want the Seahawks to pay market value to this quarterback that took us to the playoffs last season." Most of them were for paying our former QB what he wanted, which is way beyond market value.

In the end, I believe we pay him market value. I am pretty much neutral on the subject. Our front office and coaching staff have proven they can get the best out of a QB.
 

onanygivensunday

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Hawks have to sign either Geno or Lock before the draft... it's that simple.

If it's Geno, wait until after the draft to add Lock if the team doesn't draft a QB this year.

If Geno wants more that John and Pete think he's worth, sign Lock before the draft.
 

ElvisInBlue

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Waldron calling too many of the same routes from the same formation led to a lot of those turnover worthy throws. You can only go to the well so many times before the predators know they can eat you on that path. This need to blame Geno for throwing where Waldron has dictated smacks of confirmation bias against Geno and giving Waldron a free pass.
Doesn’t this argument speak to Geno being a limited, ‘system QB’ ? If the route is covered and he’s still throwing, he’s not operating at the highest level.

The second point is something a few others have brought up, but seems to be glossed over by the I don't want Geno making this much money crowd. Thirty plus million aav is market value for what Geno accomplished last season. They each make their excuses for their perspective, but it boils down to "I don't want the Seahawks to pay market value to this quarterback that took us to the playoffs last season."
I’m all for Geno maximizing what is likely his last shot at a big money contract. However, I don’t see the Hawks being in a position roster wise where that investment would produce the desired result of Super Bowl contender within his contract window.

Our front office and coaching staff have proven they can get the best out of a QB.
Then trust them to elevate another reclamation project and/or a rookie to produce a roster that promises better long term results at a fraction of the cap invested in QB.
 

scutterhawk

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Two things never get brought up in these threads unless I interject the first point: Waldron calling too many of the same routes from the same formation led to a lot of those turnover worthy throws. You can only go to the well so many times before the predators know they can eat you on that path. This need to blame Geno for throwing where Waldron has dictated smacks of confirmation bias against Geno and giving Waldron a free pass.

The second point is something a few others have brought up, but seems to be glossed over by the I don't want Geno making this much money crowd. Thirty plus million aav is market value for what Geno accomplished last season. They each make their excuses for their perspective, but it boils down to "I don't want the Seahawks to pay market value to this quarterback that took us to the playoffs last season." Most of them were for paying our former QB what he wanted, which is way beyond market value.

In the end, I believe we pay him market value. I am pretty much neutral on the subject. Our front office and coaching staff have proven they can get the best out of a QB.
But, but, but the majority of these complainers are talking like it's THEY who are going to be writing the checks LOL ; Seriously though I kind of get the concern about how the CAP money is going to get spread out, but when all's said and done, It's John Schneider who will have the final say, and I trust that he has a particular number that he's locked in on.
 
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