Russell Wilson is Elite | I'm Putting the Nail in the Coffin

[Fade]

The out of touch Russell Wilson is not elite posts here on .NET are through. I am going to put the nail in the coffin on this one.

I am not saying he is definitely better than any of these QBs, just pointing out statistically he hangs with them, and belongs in the group. Despite terrible O-Line play. I mixed in some of the more mid-tier QBs for better context, along with some notes on how O-Line play can affect a QBs performance. I left play caller and coaching out of it mostly, but do keep in mind that also has a great affect on a QBs numbers as well.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO DIRECT PEOPLE TO THIS POST ANYTIME SOMEONE SAYS SOMETHING ASININE ABOUT RUSSELL WILSON NOT BEING ELITE.

The Pro-Football-Reference highlight feature makes this really easy to do btw.


All statistics come from Pro-Football-Reference.com & O-Line Rankings via PFF.


TOM BRADY 2015 -> 2018

54 G | 43-11

65.7%
113 TD
24 INT
7.8 YPA
103.1 Passer Rating

Rushing

1.6 YPC
106 Yards
5 TD

2 Receptions for 42 yards.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 25,10,11,3 ]]

Brady is the real deal he deserves all the praise he gets. Though being with Belichick & McDaniels definitely helps. Look at Jimmy G's & Jacoby Brissett's starts when they filled in for the suspended Brady. They are well coached, and well schemed.


AARON RODGERS 2015 -> 2018

49 G | 28-20=1

63.2%
106 TD
22 INT
7.2 YPA
99.2 Passer Rating

Rushing

5.5 YPC
987 Yards
5 TD

0 Receptions

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 7,5,13,5 ]]

On odd segment of Rodgers career where his YPA is really low. Full body of work it is very high. Still no excuses he consistently has had had more time to throw than anyone outside of Big Ben.


DREW BREES 2015 -> 2018

56 G | 33-23

71%
113 TD
35 INT
8.0 YPA
105.2 Passer Rating

Rushing

0.7 YPC
74 Yards
8 TD

1 Reception for 1 Yard.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 3,12,9,11 ]]

Sean Payton, and great O-Line play elevate his numbers no doubt, but make no mistake Brees is amazing.


RUSSELL WILSON 2015-2018

58 G | 34-23-1

64.8%
112 TD
35 INT
7.8 YPA
100.6 Rating

Rushing

5.3 YPC
1625 Yards
5 TD

3 Receptions for 3 Yards and a TD.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 30,32,27,19 ]]

Factor in the OC & the O-Lines he has played behind, an injured 2016 season which was the worst statistically of his career mixed into this sample. I have no idea how you cannot come away impressed. Getting the O-Line play up to a measly 19th has people doing cartwheels. Think long and hard what Wilson's numbers would look like playing behind the Pittsburgh O-Line, or having Andy Reed as a playcaller. It is insane what he is pulling off.


PHILIP RIVERS 2015-2018

57 G | 25-32 (Losing Record)

63.7%
111 TD
48 INT
7.7 YPA
95.6 Passer Rating

Rushing

0.8 YPC
33 Yards
0 TD

0 Receptions

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 32 , 31 ,23 ,26 ]]

Similar comp in terms of O-Line play, and the only elite QB I could find who has had to consistently play behind bad O-Lines. Which isn't a coincidence it his hard to be productive behind trash O-Lines. Similar passing statistics as well, but Russell destroys him as a rusher, and has a significantly better career INT% 2.0 to Rivers career 2.5%. Only Brady & Rodgers have lower career INT% than Russell Wilson FYI.


BIG BEN 2015-2018

50 G | 35-13-1

65.6%
99 TD
50 INT
7.8 YPA
95.6 Passer Rating

Rushing

2.1 YPC
165 Yards
3 TD

1 Reception for negative 4 yards.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 10 , 3 ,12 ,1 ]]

Playing behind those O-Lines w/Antonio Brown? Don't make me laugh.


ANDY DALTON 2015-2018

54 G | 28-25-1

63.3%
86 TD
37 INT
7.4 YPA
93.3 Passer Rating

Rushing

3.1 YPC
474 Yards
7 TD

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 8 ,13 ,28 ,23 ]]

Andy Dalton isn't elite obviously, but it highlights how O-Line play is so important for QBs to produce. Once his O-Line fell off so did his production. If Russell Wilson wasn't elite his numbers would look similar to Dalton's as he has consistently played behind worse O-lines. And since supposedly Wilson isn't elite, he needs to be supported and propped up by the scheme and great O-Line play. Whelp there goes that theory.

ALEX SMITH 2015-2018

55 G | 37-18

66.2%
71 TD
23 INT
7.4 YPA
96.1 Passer Rating

Rushing

4.9 YPC
1122 Yards
9 TD

1 Reception for 3 yds.

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 22 ,14 ,18 ,20 ]]

The best game manager of all-time. He doesn't take risks, and can't win the big game no matter how much talent you surround him with. His numbers look decent, but playing for Andy Reed will do that. This sample comes predominately from his time with Andy Reed, the best numbers of his career. Full body of work the comparison is laughable. Also a measly 80 total TD, during the best run of his career still isn't really comparable, or impressive.

CASE KEENUM 2015-2018

G 37 | 21-16

64.1%
46 TD
29 INT
87.9 Passer Rating (Higher than Newton LOL)

Rushing

3.1 YPC
251 Yards
3 TD

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 28 , 27 ,28 ,21 ]]

This is what $20M APY will buy you in 2020 if you let Wilson walk to save 7% on the salary cap. Mediocre journeyman game manager. I highly advise Seahawks fans to re-think the idea of moving on from Wilson to save a little Salary Cap Space.

a few more...


CAM NEWTON 2015-2018

55 G | 38-17

59% (Gross)
93 TD
45 INT (Lame)
7.1 YPA (Bad)
87.8 Passer Rating (Yuck!)

Rushing

4.8 YPC
2101 Yards
25 TD (Beast)

0 Receptions

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 2 , 17 ,10 ,15 ]]

Cam's best year came when he had the 2nd rated O-Line. Surprise, surprise, proving once again O-Line play is super important in terms of a QBs production and consistency. Cam Newton is a different animal though entirely running the football. He is the only QB that is a better runner than Wilson production wise. Wilson far surpasses Cam though as a passer. In his defense Norv Turner has been a huge upgrade for him, so his passing numbers are going to continue to uptick.


MATT RYAN 2015-2018

G 57 | 33-24
67.6%
100 TD
38 INT
8.2 YPA
101.2 Passer Rating

Rushing

3.3 YPC
403 Yards
2 TD

0 Receptions

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 26 ,6 ,2 ,12 ]]

He has pretty good passing numbers overall. Wilson still has managed to throw more TDs behind a wretched O-Line through this stretch with no Julio Jones. As a runner... no point going there. He was also pedestrian when he played behind a 26th ranked O-Line with 21 TDs & 16 INTs. Welcome to Wilson's world. Now do it for 6 straight season's and try to come out of it alive, let alone maintain elite numbers.


ANDREW LUCK 2015-2018

31 G | 14-17

62.4%
72 TD (That is a lot of TDs for 31 games.)
34 INT (That is a lot of INTs for 31 games.)
7.1 YPA
91.6 Passer Rating

Rushing

5.1 YPC
598 Yards
2 TD

PFF O-Line Rankings 2015-2018 [[ 15 ,25 ,N/A , 5 ]]

Like Cam, Luck is having his most productive season with a top O-Line. He is asked to do more yes, but it took getting a top 5 Line in front of Luck to get him to start producing like a franchise QB this year. Still have more games to play, but the difference is obvious. O-Line matters.

*EDITED* To Add Luck.

 

[oldhawkfan]

Nice job. I’ll take your nail in the coffin and hammer it down every day of the week.

 

[LTH]

Well... there it is... he must be elite!

LTH

 

[warden]

Good post

 

[West TX Hawk]

Thank you Fade for the good research and detailed analysis. The numbers certainly support he's amongst the top shelf level and his career 4th qtr success speaks for itself.

For improvement, I do hope he makes strides to get rid of the ball a tad sooner and modify the spin move under pressure-I think teams can predict his spins now.

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

Nice job. I’ll take your nail in the coffin and hammer it down every day of the week.

+1

Hammer Time. Cue up 'You Can't Touch This'.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

Nice work Fade!


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[Fade]

Thank you Fade for the good research and detailed analysis. The numbers certainly support he's amongst the top shelf level and his career 4th qtr success speaks for itself.

For improvement, I do hope he makes strides to get rid of the ball a tad sooner and modify the spin move under pressure-I think teams can predict his spins now.

Absolutely. I have pointed that out in other threads as an adjustment he needs to make as well.

He is by no means faultless, or can do no wrong, but over a 50-ish game stretch, behind bad O-Lines he is hanging with the guys that everyone considers elite.

His 2016 injury plagued year also skews the numbers against Wilson. If I threw that year out, and pro-rated a healthy Wilson for 2016. (The average of his other 3 seasons divided by 3.)

Wilson 2015, Healthy Wilson in 2016, 2017, 2018

64.8%
120 TD
32 INT
7.8 YPA
103.93 Passer Rating

Rushing
5.8 YPC
1821 Yards
6 TD

Suffice it to say, I have never seen such a great player be so underappreciated by their own fanbase. There are Hawk fans out there that legit think they can replace him, with a game manager, and there would be little to no difference in the performance of the team. They are delusional, and they need to be buried.

 

[Seahawks Guy]

I knew Russ was elite watching his rookie season. To put it simply, he makes elite throws...tough throws into tight windows.

But of course, 'elite' is just an abstract concept and thus I am not particularly fond of these discussions..
but I do like to rep our QB every now and then because I think he's great and we are lucky to have him.

 

[hox]

Good stats and analysis. For sure Russ is among tops in the league, given that sample size, and his circumstances.

That being said, he could still improve in these areas this year to date, where our pass pro has actually been pretty decent.

1) Getting rid of the ball instead of taking negative yards - is there a QB metric for negative yards? If so, it should be included in the analysis.
2) Pocket presence and timing. Understanding where the pressure is coming from and making a quick decision.
3) Short range accuracy - a lot of overthrows and underthrows for what should be easy completions.
4) Designed runs - this is not necessarily a critique on Wilson, but if he ran more, the offense would be so much more dangerous.

As far as this year to date, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes are definitely in the "elite" category. Wilson is in the next tier at "very good, but could still be better" category. And I think he would agree with me.

 

[Fade]

Good stats and analysis. For sure Russ is among tops in the league, given that sample size, and his circumstances.

That being said, he could still improve in these areas this year to date, where our pass pro has actually been pretty decent.

1) Getting rid of the ball instead of taking negative yards - is there a QB metric for negative yards? If so, it should be included in the analysis.
2) Pocket presence and timing. Understanding where the pressure is coming from and making a quick decision.
3) Short range accuracy - a lot of overthrows and underthrows for what should be easy completions.
4) Designed runs - this is not necessarily a critique on Wilson, but if he ran more, the offense would be so much more dangerous.

As far as this year to date, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes are definitely in the "elite" category. Wilson is in the next tier at "very good, but could still be better" category. And I think he would agree with me.

Yes, you are hitting on the things he definitely needs to work on. Despite that he is still producing at a high level.

Can you tell me what Aaron Rodgers needs to work on? What Big Ben needs to work on?

Put Mahomes behind Cable O-Lines in a run first system without all of those weapons for 6 seasons. Put Russell Wilson with Andy Reed for 6 seasons What happens?

Would Wilson's numbers go up? I would say absolutely given Andy Reed's history. Would Mahomes' numbers go down? I would say absolutely give Cabevell's history.

*EDIT* The PFF O-Line Metric factors out the QB. So if Wilson holds the ball and takes an unnecessary sack they don't penalize the O-Line for it.

DVOA can show the QB factoring in to Protection. I didn't want to use that because I wanted to see who had the worst O-Lines factoring the QB out of it. To see which QBs have the advantage, and which ones didn't.

Rodgers & Wilson make it harder on their O-Lines because they like to hold the ball and extend plays. Rodgers can be worse than Wilson in this area. as the Packers DVOA protection drops to 28 in 2017, and Wilson was at 25 in 2017. A lot of the things Hawks fans criticize Wilson for, Rodgers is notorious for the same thing.

They just don't watch him enough, just his highlights. Rodgers has had better O-Lines, I don't think anyone would question that.

Brady & Brees help their O-Lines by getting rid of the ball quickly, it is a style of play choice. And yes Wilson needs to get better in this area no doubt. I am not absolving him of it, but Rodgers is doing the same thing. Where is the criticism for him?

 

[BlueThunder]

What a steal with a 3rd round pick. Every team had multiple shots at him before we picked him. John Schneider and Pete Carroll at their finest.

 

[Scorpion05]

The gap between Brady, Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers compared to the mid-tier. Just wow, what a difference.

Russ definitely has a lot to improve on, which is scary. If he does, he’ll pretty much be arguably the best. Which is impressive given his height, the obstacles he’s overcome, etc. Also, people need to realize that if Brady, Rodgers, and Brees were perfect, they’d throw for 50 TDs every year and have a record of 13-3 or better every time. Like I’ve said in another thread, elite QBs give you several B performances throughout the year, mixed in with some A+ games and a couple of bad ones. Then occasionally they’ll have one of those career years where they’re virtually unstoppable.

I’m also amazed that Wilson has all of those passing TDs given his rushing yards. He is arguably the only QB in the league to be the threat on the ground that he is while being able to make elite throws. He can definitely be much better, but the bashing of him was always over the top

 

[seahawkfreak]

Here's the thing. This is a rational argument. The asses that come here once or twice a week to bash RW is knee jerk and extremely irrational. They wait just for their moment to pounce the second Russ is playing bad to jump all over his balls.

They totally ruined the Game Day forum on Thursday. Most of us were pissed how Wilson played in the first quarter but many of the fans with half a brain know there are 4 quarters in the game.

 

[BlueThunder]

Reading the opposing forums, like I seem to do... lol. You always see respect for Russell. Usually something like "man, I hate him, but he sure throws a "pretty" or "Awesome" pass. And he does. Dude has a special arm to go with that running ability. That whole package is why he's so special. Along with his awareness and football IQ. And he's all ours.

 

[Fade]

Here's the thing. This is a rational argument. The asses that come here once or twice a week to bash RW is knee jerk and extremely irrational. They wait just for their moment to pounce the second Russ is playing bad to jump all over his balls.

They totally ruined the Game Day forum on Thursday. Most of us were pissed how Wilson played in the first quarter but many of the fans with half a brain know there are 4 quarters in the game.

That is what I was trying to achieve. Mission accomplished.

The gap between Brady, Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers compared to the mid-tier. Just wow, what a difference.

Russ definitely has a lot to improve on, which is scary. If he does, he’ll pretty much be arguably the best. Which is impressive given his height, the obstacles he’s overcome, etc. Also, people need to realize that if Brady, Rodgers, and Brees were perfect, they’d throw for 50 TDs every year and have a record of 13-3 or better every time. Like I’ve said in another thread, elite QBs give you several B performances throughout the year, mixed in with some A+ games and a couple of bad ones. Then occasionally they’ll have one of those career years where they’re virtually unstoppable.

I’m also amazed that Wilson has all of those passing TDs given his rushing yards. He is arguably the only QB in the league to be the threat on the ground that he is while being able to make elite throws. He can definitely be much better, but the bashing of him was always over the top

It is pretty amazing.

Look at the O-Lines, and playcallers and systems they have/are played/playing in. It gets even more impressive.

I don't think anyone would argue Russell has had better play calling & O-Line play than the Steelers as an example, while getting to throw to Antonio Brown, and hand the ball to Bell. Big Ben is handed every thing and he can't get the Steelers back to the big game?

One of the most overrated QBs of all-time. Philip Rivers houses him, it's not even close. If Big Ben played for the Chargers he would of retired playing behind that putrid O-Line. Philip Rivers would of stole a couple championships away from Brady as well, no doubt in my mind.

Reading the opposing forums, like I seem to do... lol. You always see respect for Russell. Usually something like "man, I hate him, but he sure throws a "pretty" or "Awesome" pass. And he does. Dude has a special arm to go with that running ability. That whole package is why he's so special. Along with his awareness and football IQ. And he's all ours.

Don't forget his will & determination. His best trait is he never gives up.

Nice job. I’ll take your nail in the coffin and hammer it down every day of the week.

+1

Hammer Time. Cue up 'You Can't Touch This'.

Good post

Well... there it is... he must be elite!

LATH

Nice work Fade!

 

[toffee]

I agree, but I suspect that some on dot net will take all stats as fake news and insist our Wilson as a too short game manager.

In my mind, Wilson carried and is still carrying the Hawks, we are lucky to have him.


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[Pandion Haliaetus]

I just think some of us are desensitized to Wilson and more or less brainwashed by the NFL’s directive of mandating as well as insuring high-scoring, high powered passing offenses. And it’s incredibly passive... I’d say probably 99% of Seahawks are NOT dissecting every QB, in every game, and every play. Most of us are just privy to game highlights and the often personal agendas and biases of NFL’s mainstream analysts, many who are just pure instigators or promoters instead of actual professors. So more often than not we only see the successes of the league’s best rather than the whole picture.

But I’d say a good majority of us fans, ill say a good 80-90% are watching every Seahawks games, and probably a good chunk I’d say 40-50% of those fans are dissecting every single thing Wilson does. I’d say half of those fans are of the highly critical variety... the whole thing about being highly critical... those types of fans tend to only focus on the negative. They only tend to nitpick every single thing Wilson does wrong, every mistake, every missed opportunity, every failure with or without context of why those things happened. Yet they seem to blur out all the extraordinary things Wilson does or better yet they think Russell Wilson, the Super Powered version should always be his standard each and every game. To a point because they want to believe he’s just not good.

I didn’t think Russell was Elite a few years ago like after 2014 and absolutely got blasted for it and I believe that thread ended up shacked.

This is an ongoing argument that’s not going to go away because there is some of who recognize Russell Wilson as who he is in the confines of his weaknesses, from that side to other and in between, those who are blurring his greatness into his standard where he should be passing like the 2nd half of 2015, running likes it’s 2014, while winning every game that’s there is an opportunity. And we he fails the expectations and he does because he’s human, not a god. He’s not the player they thought he was of thought he was going to be.

And so on and they sour on him. I’m sure you’ve been to bars, parties, tailgates, games, social media, forums, water coolers, there’s always that one freakin dude that will point out every single thing Russell does that has negative impact, and he’ll tell you about it religiously, you might even be that guy.

I’m not sure if Russ is best of the best, most elite, however those numbers in the OP put him in the conversation, no doubt, but if you’re a person who thinks Luck is better than Wilson. That’s dumb.

If you’re a fan that thinks 2018 Russell Wilson has regressed that’s even dumber.

I also think you can call him glorified game manager if you like but know if you do, you have to call him The Greatest Game Manager of All-Time or That Has Ever Existed because he’s on a career trajectory that will land him in Canton one day

 

[Scorpion05]

Hey Fade. Allow me to bolster your thread with video evidence, if you don't mind. None of this by the way takes away from the greatness of these QBs, just offering perspective:

Tom Brady examples of missing wide open receivers, making bad reads, etc. :

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1062400271484182529[/tweet]


[tweet]https://twitter.com/RyanHannable/status/1062147576735195136[/tweet]


[tweet]https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1042247932442030080[/tweet]

And then one example(among several) from last year:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PP_Rich_Hill/status/909848830136463360[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1062088843103494145[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TDennisSportTog/status/937487852623093761[/tweet]


The last one is my favorite. Imagine if Russ threw a tantrum like that after missing this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/937698299368308737[/tweet]

 

[Fade]

Damn. I left out Luck. I might have too add another one.



*UPDATE* Andrew Luck added to OP.