Smith is due $22.5M in 2024. That's how much he adds to the cap bill. Teams can manipulate cap hits to a degree so that probably won't be what he adds to the 2024 cap if he stays. I think his current contract value is about right. Potentially another team might value him a bit higher and be prepared to trade a 4th round pick for his contract. Equally his value might only be $19M and at $22.5M he'd have 0 or negative trade value.
I would retain him for now. If the Seahawks get a 1st round QB and want to trade Smith to reduce costs it's not a problem. The worst case scenario is they have to give up a low pick to a team that will take Smith off their hands.
Nobody is going to trade for Geno with all the available/younger/cheaper QB's, and 22.5 mil is his cash number this year. Which for our interest is irrelevant.
You're right in that he doesn't add 22.5 because you're not adding the 9.6 million roster bonus he gets 3/17.
Draft a qb and want to trade geno? DEFINITELY a problem. So along with the 9.6 roster bonus on 3/17, his 12.7 mil base salary becomes fully guaranteed 2/16.
So, the salary being guaranteed doesn't matter if we keep him for the year or trade him, his salary stays guaranteed at that date for the year regardless of what team he's on. But after 2/16 those are the only two options left because cutting him at that point would be stupid instead of doing it before the 16th, and in fact literally worthless after the roster bonus on 3/17. We'd save zero dollars.
If we cut geno before 2/16 we save 13.8 mil on the cap this year, and free an additional 8.7 the year after since next years signing bonus would move up. Same if we trade geno before 3/17. If we trade geno after 3/17 and before kickoff we'd save 4.2 then 8.7 the next year, and less each week into the season. So these are very important dates, for practical purposes 2/16 is the deadline to cut him and 3/17 is the deadline to trade him.
So literally everything you said is wrong lol, but it's a weird contract. 9.6 is a MASSIVE roster bonus, and the 12.7 base becoming guaranteed makes it more confusing as well.
From geno's standpoint, it ensures we can't just hold on to him to see if we get the qb we want in the draft, and if he looks week one ready in camp or not, while other teams are signing the other free agent QB's. You can see why that'd be an issue from his perspective if we find out our new qb is set, and cut geno when teams are all set at qb.
Likewise, it gives the team the opportunity to where, if geno doesn't fit our plans for the future (keep in mind this was signed before this past season) *wink wink*, they have some extra fat to trim off opposed to for example the 9.6 roster bonus being added onto the amount guaranteed at signing where we pay it no matter what.
The roster bonus only applies to the seahawks, and only if he's still on the team on 3/17, it doesn't carry over in a trade. So it makes him more appealing to other teams who may want to trade for him opposed to the roster bonus being spread through the base salary where whoever trading for him is stuck with the bill.
Makes a bit more sense why geno signed such a seemingly team friendly deal, seems pretty fair all around tbh.
Again, if we're going to cut geno it will be done before 2/16, and if we're going to trade him it will be before 3/17. I doubt anyone is going to give us picks for Geno, so it might end up a situation where we give geno and a 6th for a 7th kind of deal,similar to how the nba moves contracts occasionally.
After 3/17 the only way literally any money (4.2 mil) can be saved is by trading geno, but at that point might as well keep him lol.
I did a LOT of reading to wrap my head around this and learn the specifics on some of the terms so hopefully at least somebody got something out of it.
Worth noting that next year is almost a carbon copy regarding his contract, except there's no salary guarantee date.
So anyone who has mentioned cutting geno, it's happening by 2/16 if at all .