Would you be mad drafting this guy at 16?

Bear-Hawk

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We really need to address qb first as its very possible Penix, Nix and McCarthy go by the first or early second. Both Bo and Mike are players that we have waited for A year for.

This years class I see as better than 2025, in which Shedeur Sanders is being forecasted as a top prospect; if true, that’d make the class of 2025 look Like 2022 whereas your top picks were Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder.
Bears, commanders,Pats,Giants,Titans,Falcons,Vikings, Broncos, Raiders could all be looking to draft a QB.

What makes you think you can sit at #16 and get the guy you want? Trade for #9 with the Bears.
 

Bear-Hawk

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This is the way to go.
There is plenty of OL/DL to be had this coming Draft.
And with all that, you’re probably drafting even lower than #16 in 2025 and still needing a successor to Geno. This is the draft to address the problem.
 

DarkVictory23

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Bears, commanders,Pats,Giants,Titans,Falcons,Vikings, Broncos, Raiders could all be looking to draft a QB.

What makes you think you can sit at #16 and get the guy you want? Trade for #9 with the Bears.
But then the Bears won't be able to get Odunze.

Additionally, I'm not sure getting #9 gets us a guy we want to give up what we'd have to give up to get. Top 3 are probably still gone by #9.

For QBs this year, it seems like there is a clear #1, a pretty distinct top 3, and then a bunch of guys various college football fandoms are trying to will into that upper class of QB but are probably all projects of varying degrees.

If not one of McCarthy, Nix, or Penix are available at #16, I would be somewhat surprised. I would be ok with taking one of those guys that early (even though lots of people seem to think that's nuts) because I'll assume the Front Office is fairly confident what their plan is for those dudes but if we're actively trading away players (like DK) or giving up picks we need for the O-Line or LB corps for guys who are the #4-6 at their respective positions?

Not sure that makes sense for guys who are rated in the 20s, 30s, and worse on most big boards.
 

Bear-Hawk

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But then the Bears won't be able to get Odunze.

Additionally, I'm not sure getting #9 gets us a guy we want to give up what we'd have to give up to get. Top 3 are probably still gone by #9.

For QBs this year, it seems like there is a clear #1, a pretty distinct top 3, and then a bunch of guys various college football fandoms are trying to will into that upper class of QB but are probably all projects of varying degrees.

If not one of McCarthy, Nix, or Penix are available at #16, I would be somewhat surprised. I would be ok with taking one of those guys that early (even though lots of people seem to think that's nuts) because I'll assume the Front Office is fairly confident what their plan is for those dudes but if we're actively trading away players (like DK) or giving up picks we need for the O-Line or LB corps for guys who are the #4-6 at their respective positions?

Not sure that makes sense for guys who are rated in the 20s, 30s, and worse on most big boards.
No deal if Odunze is there at #9. No guarantee of anything, but you’ve got a hell of a lot better chance at QB with this trade.
 

CactusJack

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No deal if Odunze is there at #9. No guarantee of anything, but you’ve got a hell of a lot better chance at QB with this trade.
It's only worth it if Daniels or Maye falls to 9. Otherwise, there's no point in reaching for a QB.

You can trade back from 16 & grab either Nix or Penix.
 

DarkVictory23

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It's only worth it if Daniels or Maye falls to 9. Otherwise, there's no point in reaching for a QB.

You can trade back from 16 & grab either Nix or Penix.
Yeah, and I just can't imagine a world where Maye and Daniels make it past Washington, New England, Atlanta, and New York. It just makes no sense to trade up for who's going to be left over at #9.

I mean, even trading for the 4 or 5 seems like a long shot to get one of them. I feel like passing by Maye and Daniels will be the quickest way to get the new coaching regimes in DC and NE run out of town.
 

Bear-Hawk

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It's only worth it if Daniels or Maye falls to 9. Otherwise, there's no point in reaching for a QB.

You can trade back from 16 & grab either Nix or Penix.
Oh really? Nix looked good at combine, and if he’s your guy, it’s a gamble waiting at #16. For various reasons, Penix may drop to second round, but are you rolling with him as your next QB?

Looking ahead to 2025, the Hawks will probably be drafting even lower than #16, so you’ll be REALLY “reaching” or else sell the farm to move up to top-5. Is that the plan if trading down from #16 doesn’t work?
 

CactusJack

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Oh really? Nix looked good at combine, and if he’s your guy, it’s a gamble waiting at #16. For various reasons, Penix may drop to second round, but are you rolling with him as your next QB?

Looking ahead to 2025, the Hawks will probably be drafting even lower than #16, so you’ll be REALLY “reaching” or else sell the farm to move up to top-5. Is that the plan if trading down from #16 doesn’t work?
My guy, no one is giving up that kind of capital to move up & take Bo or Penix. Both will still be available at Pick 16.
 

Fade

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View attachment 65351


Guy is an absolute strength beast and sounds very smart as well. Work ethic is crazy.
Running mock drafts, I trade down several times, acquiring additional 2nd and 3rd round picks, and take him before the 9ers draft at the end of rd 1.

16 is too high for a Center. Trading down is 90% of the time the best option at 16 in this draft as the blue chippers are all off the board, and the value just isn't there. 10% of the time a blue chipper is there, but mockdrafts are very unrealistic, so in real life that number will drop to .1%.

The Hawks are also down a 2nd rounder, and I'm sure the are looking to add more picks for day 2. I'd be cool with trading out of the 1st entirely if the QBs they want are gone at 16.

I really love the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rds of this draft.

You can get a future starting DT, LB, QB, G, and C, with proper trade downs.
 

Chukarhawk

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late 1st round early 2nd round, you could trade back and take him at 28.
 

Bear-Hawk

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My guy, no one is giving up that kind of capital to move up & take Bo or Penix. Both will still be available at Pick 16.
You might be right about Penix. Not so sure about Nix. But if you are wrong, how do you propose to get a QB in 2025?
If we land a legit franchise QB, nobody will care where he was drafted.
 

DarkVictory23

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You might be right about Penix. Not so sure about Nix. But if you are wrong, how do you propose to get a QB in 2025?
If we land a legit franchise QB, nobody will care where he was drafted.
Yeah, but if he's bad, people might care that you traded away DK Metcalf and your next two first round picks for a bust. (People like Jody Allen, perhaps?)

It's like if I sold my car and spent all the money on Powerball tickets. Sure, if I've got a $100,000,000 winner when I tell my wife about it, it becomes a funny story we'll tell at parties at our new mansion. If I don't...
 

JGreen79

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Ah. Right. He was multi-positional coming out but settled at center in rookie year. Guess that drives his absence on most of the Center draft history lists.

Guess that makes sense, but for the general point to those who endorse going IOL at 16 (not you, JGreen).... was Pouncey really that good of a pick at 15? He was sandwiched between two significantly more valuable players at more valuable positions on the field in Quinn and Kerrigan.

I mean, he's about as good as you can hope for when drafting an IOL, and it was STILL a suboptimal choice.

The upside is so, so, so limited with an IOL in that range.

I would argue that the only way a center would be worth a top 16 pick is if he becomes a Hall of Famer, and even then you still probably picked him to early.
 

Bear-Hawk

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You are making my point. It wouldn’t cost nearly that much to move up to #9. A second round pick plus #16 should do it. It would cost a lot more than that to move from some spot lower than #16 in 2025 into the top-5 to get your QB.
 

DirectMessage

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Aren't there higher rated OL players on the draft board besides this center? I mean if we stayed and drafted OL at 16?
 
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