Wilson

[Lagartixa]

I'm not going to do it but, I betcha if you look at the stats you will see that when the Hawks run the ball 25-30 times a game there record is better than when they run it say 15-20 times a game..
[snip]
LTH

Well of course you'd see that. But I think you might be getting the cause and the effect mixed up. One of the things the guys at FootballOutsiders figured out is that "you don't win because you're running a lot; you run a lot because you're winning." When a team is ahead, starting some time in the second half of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter (depending on the size of the lead), that team should be running as much as is feasible in order to burn up the clock. Every incomplete pass is a great gift to the team that's behind.

Let's see if Russell Wilson and the vaunted Shane Waldron can remember that after the spanking they got by trying more deep passes when the Titans were basically begging them to take the available short and medium-length passes, and not taking the gifts the Titans were offering led to the 'Hawks going three-and-out when a few first downs and a bunch of running plays could have iced the victory.

No, I'm not a "Wilson hater." But I do recognize that the huge number of sacks he takes is at least as much on him as on the OL, and it frustrates the crap out of me that he frequently ignores (or just doesn't see) the opportunities for short and intermediate stuff where he's got guys wide open because he's looking to make the SportsCenter highlights with "home runs." Don't get me wrong - I love his rainbow "moon shots" for monster gains. I still feel a certain exhilaration whenever I just think about that one to Lockett in the game against KC in 2018. I just wish he'd keep defenses honest by taking more of the opportunities they give him for less-spectacular but better-for-the-team shorter passes.

Trevor Moawad told Wilson in 2012 that what would set Wilson apart was Wilson's mind. I believe Wilson can get this and I'm hoping he will.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

Russ is our best QB ever, but he doesn't seem to have the patience to work the short passing game to any effect.

If I was to guess, Russ has had more interceptions with the 8-12 yard passes than the 40+ yard passes. Hence, if given the choice, he'd rather heave those long passes.

 

[LTH]

I'm not going to do it but, I betcha if you look at the stats you will see that when the Hawks run the ball 25-30 times a game there record is better than when they run it say 15-20 times a game..
[snip]
LTH

Well of course you'd see that. But I think you might be getting the cause and the effect mixed up. One of the things the guys at FootballOutsiders figured out is that "you don't win because you're running a lot; you run a lot because you're winning." When a team is ahead, starting some time in the second half of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter (depending on the size of the lead), that team should be running as much as is feasible in order to burn up the clock. Every incomplete pass is a great gift to the team that's behind.

Let's see if Russell Wilson and the vaunted Shane Waldron can remember that after the spanking they got by trying more deep passes when the Titans were basically begging them to take the available short and medium-length passes, and not taking the gifts the Titans were offering led to the 'Hawks going three-and-out when a few first downs and a bunch of running plays could have iced the victory.

No, I'm not a "Wilson hater." But I do recognize that the huge number of sacks he takes is at least as much on him as on the OL, and it frustrates the crap out of me that he frequently ignores (or just doesn't see) the opportunities for short and intermediate stuff where he's got guys wide open because he's looking to make the SportsCenter highlights with "home runs." Don't get me wrong - I love his rainbow "moon shots" for monster gains. I still feel a certain exhilaration whenever I just think about that one to Lockett in the game against KC in 2018. I just wish he'd keep defenses honest by taking more of the opportunities they give him for less-spectacular but better-for-the-team shorter passes.

Trevor Moawad told Wilson in 2012 that what would set Wilson apart was Wilson's mind. I believe Wilson can get this and I'm hoping he will.

I'm certainly not a Russ hater either I like Russ a lot. I think he will get it I just think he try's to hard some times he really wants to be great and he is great most of the time...


LTH

 

[John63]

Okay let's look at this whole short-throw thing. Below is every pass play in regulation. The ones that say short were short passes all this is from ESPN play-by-play.

I think you will find 25* short passes

• 2nd & 8 at SEA 27
(14:32 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to D.Metcalf.
• 1st & 10 at SEA 30
(11:23 - 1st) R.Wilson pass deep left to T.Lockett to TEN 19 for 51 yards (B.McDougald).
• 3rd & 4 at TEN 13
(9:38 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to T.Lockett.
• 2nd & 10 at SEA 25
(2:16 - 1st) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to D.Metcalf to SEA 29 for 4 yards (H.Landry).
• 3rd & 6 at SEA 29
(1:30 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to F.Swain to SEA 38 for 9 yards (J.Jenkins; D.Cruikshank).
• 2nd & 8 at SEA 40
(0:10 - 1st) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to D.Metcalf to SEA 44 for 4 yards (J.Jenkins).
• 3rd & 4 at SEA 44
(15:00 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to D.Metcalf (J.Jenkins).
• 2nd & 19 at 50
(13:58 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to F.Swain pushed ob at TEN 45 for 5 yards (H.Landry; D.Long). Penalty on SEA-D.Metcalf, Offensive Holding, declined.
• 1st & 10 at SEA 17
(8:09 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle to D.Metcalf to SEA 33 for 16 yards (E.Molden; R.Evans).
• 2nd & 6 at SEA 37
(6:34 - 2nd) Tyler Lockett Pass From Russell Wilson for 63 Yrds J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-M.Dickson.
• 1st & 10 at SEA 25
(1:05 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to T.Homer ran ob at SEA 36 for 11 yards (C.Jackson).
• 1st & 10 at SEA 36
(0:59 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 44 for 8 yards (J.Jenkins).
• 2nd & 2 at SEA 44
(0:56 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to F.Swain ran ob at TEN 44 for 12 yards (C.Jackson).
• (0:51 - 2nd) Timeout #1 by TEN at 00:51.
• 1st & 10 at TEN 44
(0:51 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to D.Metcalf ran ob at TEN 36 for 8 yards.
• 1st & 10 at TEN 11
(0:29 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to D.Metcalf.
• 2nd & 10 at TEN 11
(0:25 - 2nd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to T.Lockett [O.Adeniyi]. PENALTY on TEN-C.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 11 - No Play.
• 2nd & 2 at SEA 19
(10:02 - 3rd) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 1 yard (C.Jackson).
• 1st & 10 at SEA 21
(8:59 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle to D.Metcalf to SEA 35 for 14 yards (J.Jenkins).
• 1st & 10 at SEA 35
(8:26 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 45 for 10 yards.
• 2nd & 13 at SEA 42
(7:03 - 3rd) R.Wilson pass short right to T.Lockett pushed ob at TEN 47 for 11 yards (J.Jenkins).
• (6:22 - 3rd) Timeout #1 by SEA at 06:22.
• 1st & 10 at SEA 34
(15:00 - 4th) R.Wilson pass short left to C.Carson pushed ob at SEA 36 for 2 yards (K.Byard). PENALTY on SEA-D.Metcalf, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34 - No Play. Penalty on SEA-D.Metcalf, Offensive Holding, declined.
• 1st & 20 at SEA 24
(14:31 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to F.Swain to SEA 25 for 1 yard (C.Jackson).
• 2nd & 19 at SEA 25
(13:55 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle to T.Lockett to SEA 32 for 7 yards (D.Long).
• 3rd & 12 at SEA 32
(13:06 - 4th) Freddie Swain 68 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Jason Myers PAT failed)
• 2nd & 5 at SEA 30
(11:47 - 4th) R.Wilson pass short left to G.Everett to SEA 33 for 3 yards (K.Byard, J.Jenkins).
• 3rd & 2 at SEA 33
(11:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to D.Metcalf (K.Fulton).
• 2nd & 8 at SEA 32
(5:12 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to T.Lockett.
• 3rd & 8 at SEA 32
(5:08 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to D.Metcalf to SEA 39 for 7 yards (H.Landry; K.Byard).
• 1st & 10 at SEA 28
(0:24 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to T.Homer to SEA 31 for 3 yards (K.Fulton).
• (0:17 - 4th) Timeout #2 by SEA at 00:17.
• 2nd & 7 at SEA 31
(0:17 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to G.Everett [B.Dupree]. SEA-B.Shell was injured during the play.
• (0:08 - 4th) Timeout #3 by SEA at 00:10. Required due to injury.
• 1st & 10 at SEA 43
(0:02 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to T.Lockett pushed ob at TEN 30 for 27 yards (C.Jackson).

Might help to actually look at the facts and not just make them up

 

[hox]

I think most of us are talking about plays like this one.

• 3rd & 2 at SEA 33
(11:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to D.Metcalf (K.Fulton).

It's great when it hits, but you really only need two yards right here.

 

[John63]

I think most of us are talking about plays like this one.

• 3rd & 2 at SEA 33
(11:03 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to D.Metcalf (K.Fulton).

It's great when it hits, but you really only need two yards right here.

actually, most are saying he does not throw short which is untrue. now you might be talking about that but most are not.


example first post

"I think we must explore the possibility that Wilson just wants to be a gunslinger and throw the ball long all the time... That's really what he wants to be... I think he has proven that."


"He does seem to always be looking for the long ball when what is needed is a simple 1st down. "

as the plays above show, these narratives are not true.


Now perhaps on that one you are correct but are really going to say out of all those short passes that we are going to say we lost because of one missed opportunity when we don't even know if anyone was open short.

I mean every QB misses something in every game. Brady, Rodgers all of them.

 

[TreeRon]

"They've got great run blockers on the line"
Really?????? Could have fooled me last week.
Even an aged Iupati was a better run blocker than these guys.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

"They've got great run blockers on the line"
Really?????? Could have fooled me last week.
Even an aged Iupati was a better run blocker than these guys.

They specifically drafted a top pass blocking guard in Lewis, and traded for another top 10 PFF pass blocker in Jackson this off season in order to try to shore up Russell's pass pro.

The bottom line is as good as Russell is, and he is still an elite top 10 QB, he has ingrained football DNA habits and limitations.

Since high school he has been a rhythm/tempo run around and make plays downfield kind of QB, and that's hard to coach or rep out of a QB.

We've seen first hand when plays break down he's brilliant at escaping pressure and being clutch downfield.

Well that only works if you retain that escapability, and Russell isn't as quick as he used to be. So more and more of those explosive exciting Houdini escapes are turning into what we saw in overtime, almost safeties and reversions back to tunnel vision downfield when plays break down, and not the sensible check downs and intermediate calls and routes he needs to take advantage of Waldron's schemes and playcalls.

 

[OrangeGravy]

I've said before that it seems Russ's 'natural' read progression is long, medium, short rather than the opposite.

He does seem to always be looking for the long ball when what is needed is a simple 1st down. It's been noted many times that he will often go for the deep ball on 3d down when there is an acceptable checkdown that would net another set of downs. I know people like to blame the defense for Sunday's meltdown, but failute to get a 1st down when up by 2 TD's is a recipe for losing. They never established any semblance of a run game with Carson at any point in the game.

Russ is our best QB ever, but he doesn't seem to have the patience to work the short passing game to any effect.

As usual your right on point. lets hope Carroll gives Waldron and Russ an earful because in my opinion they need that run game and they need to be able to control the clock..

LTH

There's only so much Waldron can do though and to a lessor extent even Pete. Waldron can call all the right stuff, but if Russ decides hes taking the deep ball, what can Waldron do? Waldron can go to Pete. Pete's only real recourse is to give Waldron hard limits on play calls. You can't bench him. If Russ decides he's gonna do something, nobody can really stop him

 

[AgentDib]

Obviously this is a concern, but it feels like a bit much to be talking about Waldron needing to rework stuff considering this was just his second game and the first one went very well. If anything, this is the sort of loss that could be good for him down the road so we don't end up with a 28-3 fiasco in a playoff game.

In my view Pocic was clearly their real plan at center. He's a suspect run blocker but a good pass protector and they've been focusing on pass pro at the expense of the running game elsewhere. They weren't expecting his hamstring to take him out for practically the entire off-season and now he's on IR with a knee injury. At this point he may just not be able to stay healthy enough on to rely on, but if he does come back healthy then I wouldn't be surprised if he reclaims the starting job.