What if Denver craps the bed

[pittpnthrs]

Russ was good enough to win games with a head coach that constantly interfered, had pathetic game plans, and swore by an antiquated philosophy. Carrolls coaching record is below .500 without Wilson. It will be below .500 again until he retires. Russ was not the problem. He'll do just fine in Denver.

 

[John63]

Russ was good enough to win games with a head coach that constantly interfered, had pathetic game plans, and swore by an antiquated philosophy. Carrolls coaching record is below .500 without Wilson. It will be below .500 again until he retires. Russ was not the problem. He'll do just fine in Denver.

THIS^^^

 

[toffee]

There's a reason that quarterbacks are taught not to pirouette backwards out of the pocket like drunk ballerinas?

Go figure.

When it worked, it was magic! I enjoy and appreciated it. I could imagine the linemen could be having a difficult time, since whatever Russ was doing would be behind the linemen, out of their line of sight.

 

[Chapow]

I think it's pretty unlikely that the Broncos will be bad enough for a top 10 pick (in other words, crap the bed) unless Russ misses a significant amount of time. However, I do think it's very realistic that they might not even make the playoffs, even if Russ stays healthy and plays every snap.

This is what the Broncos are dealing with in the AFC.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
Jared Allen and the Bills
Joe Burrow and the Bengals
Ryan Tannehill and the Titans (laugh at Tannehill all you want, but the Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens
Mac Jones, Bill Belichick, and the Patriots
Justin Herbert and the Chargers
Derrick Carr and the Raiders
And then there's the 9-8 Dolphins and the 9-8 Colts

That's a lot of good teams and good QB's. Gonna be tough. 8-9 or 9-8 seems quite possible to me.

 

[AgentDib]

The Broncos have a moderate schedule. Obviously by now we all know that the AFC West plays the NFC West this year, but that's mitigated by them also playing the AFC South.

Their home games:
Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts, Cardinals, 49ers, Jets

Their road games:
Jaguars, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Rams, Titans, Hawks, Ravens, Panthers

10-7 looks like a reasonable expected value.

 

[IndyHawk]

The Broncos have a moderate schedule. Obviously by now we all know that the AFC West plays the NFC West this year, but that's mitigated by them also playing the AFC South.

Their home games:
Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Texans, Colts, Cardinals, 49ers, Jets

Their road games:
Jaguars, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Rams, Titans, Hawks, Ravens, Panthers

10-7 looks like a reasonable expected value.

I see 10 losses

 

[Throwdown]

I see 10 losses

Hope for 17, I want them to give us a top 10 pick and we can laugh at em more cuz they gave us a boatload for Fatty Mcbutterpants

 

[Scorpion05]

I
There is no "I hate Russ" crowd.

That said, remember in 2017 when Russ led the team in passing and rushing and we finished 9-7? If that didn't bring home that it's a team game, then I don't know if he'll ever learn. I'm glad that's Denver's problem to solve now.

Oh, there's definitely a I hate Russ crowd. It's about 45% of the fan base at least.

2017 is actually the season that proved how great actually was for this team. Not only did he lead the team in passing and rushing, he scored all but ONE of our touchdowns.

With Blair Walsh as our kicker.

That 2017 team would have been 2-14 at best without Russ that year specifically. That is more a reflection of poor team building and coaching. For that year at least. I'm pretty sure Denver is going to be happy with him. So far they don't seem to complain about the same things we do as a fan base.

 

[Scorpion05]

Russ will continue to get sacked on average 2.7 times/game... that's his career average thus far. That's a projection of 46 sacks over a 17-game season. Denver's Oline is not that much better than Seattle's. Last year, Seattle yielded 46 sacks and Denver gave up 40.

Now let's look at the pass rushers in the AFC West. There's Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby with the Raiders. There's Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery with the Chargers. And there's Chris Jones, Frank Clark and rookie George Karlaftis with the Chiefs.

I believe that the Broncos will finish 9-8 or 8-9 next year if Russ stays healthy.

He will continue to get sacked at least 30-35 times a year. But with a better offensive line his sack number will in fact go down. His QB hits will definitely go down, and that is really the only number that matters. When Wilson gets protection, his passing touchdown numbers increase even if that comes with some sacks. But the pounding he takes on QB hits won't be as much.

 

[keasley45]

Russ has been solved. NFC, AFC, doesn't matter. He will have flashes of brilliance, but it will be obvious that the feast or famine (and lately more the latter) offense we saw trot out onto the field over the last several years wasn't a product of a meddling head coach.
Denver won't make the playoffs. They finish 9-8 and we snag the 17th overall to match with our 21st overall. Then we package one or both of those to move up and get our future franchise qb.

 

[Lagartixa]

He will continue to get sacked at least 30-35 times a year. But with a better offensive line his sack number will in fact go down. His QB hits will definitely go down, and that is really the only number that matters. When Wilson gets protection, his passing touchdown numbers increase even if that comes with some sacks. But the pounding he takes on QB hits won't be as much.

So... what's the over-under on the number of times RW3-and-out will be sacked in 2022?

If it's 40, I'm taking the "over."

 

[Palmegranite]

Russ has been solved.....

Interesting take, but let me put this canard out of its misery.

A creative, think on your feet, spontaneous, "free-lancing" QB of the once-in-a-generation make-up of Russell Wilson, cannot, by definition, be solved. Ever.

He can be handicapped by a stubborn coaching staff, but not solved.

 

[Lagartixa]

So... what's the over-under on the number of times RW3-and-out will be sacked in 2022?

If it's 40, I'm taking the "over."

It'll be interesting to see how the Donkeys do on time of possession and number of three-and-outs too.

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

Interesting take, but let me put this canard out of its misery.

A creative, think on your feet, spontaneous, "free-lancing" QB of the once-in-a-generation make-up of Russell Wilson, cannot, by definition, be solved. Ever.

He can be handicapped by a stubborn coaching staff, but not solved.

Unfortunately, RW's feet no longer move at their previous pace and he's slower and not as slippery as his first few years. Still unorthodox but now more catchable.

I love your use of "canard" btw as I'm always appreciative of writing skill!

 

[keasley45]

Interesting take, but let me put this canard out of its misery.

A creative, think on your feet, spontaneous, "free-lancing" QB of the once-in-a-generation make-up of Russell Wilson, cannot, by definition, be solved. Ever.

He can be handicapped by a stubborn coaching staff, but not solved.

The last few years say otherwise. His handicap isn't a stubborn coaching staff. Its not being able to quickly diagnose defenses and make the right read quickly, consistently. He's also handicapped in that he has to take deep drops to get an accurate survey of the field.
And finally, he's handicapped because the spontaneous, creative, free lancing aspect of his play has been slowed by father time. That style of play is also counter to sustaining drives and being able to consistently game plan an opponent / make adjustments on the fly - you can't fine tune an offense or evaluate a game plan if said game plan isn't executed because every other play is improvised.

Denver's problem. But we'll get a decent mid round 1st from them.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Denver wins the AFC west. Book it.

 

[onanygivensunday]

He will continue to get sacked at least 30-35 times a year. But with a better offensive line his sack number will in fact go down.

Make that more like 40 times a year. Your 30-35 sacks/year projection has no defensible historical basis imo.

Except for his rookie season (33 sacks), Russ has always taken more than 40 sacks every year. One year he topped out at 51, and then 48, and then 47, all in consecutive years.

You can't include last year (33 sacks) because he played in only 76% of the team's 17-game total QB snaps due to his hand injury.

Had he not gotten injured, his 2021 projected sack total was 43 (33/0.76 = 43).

I'd put the O/U of Russ' 2022 sack total at 40.

 

[misfit]

Make that more like 40 times a year. Your 30-35 sacks/year projection has no defensible historical basis imo.

Except for his rookie season (33 sacks), Russ has always taken more than 40 sacks every year. One year he topped out at 51, and then 48, and then 47, all in consecutive years.

You can't include last year (33 sacks) because he played in only 76% of the team's 17-game total QB snaps due to his hand injury.

Had he not gotten injured, his 2021 projected sack total was 43 (33/0.76 = 43).

I'd put the O/U of Russ' 2022 sack total at 40.

Funny thing is that Pete Carroll qbs are some of the most sacked qbs in the league, going back to Matt Hass and TJack. This is not exclusive to being a Russ problem. This is a function of Pete's offense.

 

[Natethegreat]

Funny thing is that Pete Carroll qbs are some of the most sacked qbs in the league, going back to Matt Hass and TJack. This is not exclusive to being a Russ problem. This is a function of Pete's offense.

Yeah, Pete likes deep shots and so did Russ. It ends up giving you more sacks. It also gave us many great plays and also wins.
The people crapping on Russ for sacks are being ridiculous. Part of it was a poor o line, part was philosophy, and part of it was Russ trying to make something out of nothing.
You know what though. Russ won and was great at football.
He will do the same at Denver.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Funny thing is that Pete Carroll qbs are some of the most sacked qbs in the league, going back to Matt Hass and TJack. This is not exclusive to being a Russ problem. This is a function of Pete's offense.

The data doesn't support your opinion.

Under Holmgren for 8 seasons, Matt Hasselbeck was sacked an average of 33 times per year.

Under Carroll for one year, Matt was sacked 29 times in 14 games, which projects to 33 sacks had he played in all 16 games that season.