What if Denver craps the bed

[keasley45]

Let's turn this thread in a slightly different direction.

Last year, Denver went 7-10, last in the AFCW. They went 3-9 in conference, 1-5 in their division, and 4-1 against the NFC. They were 0-4 against the AFCN.

The only games they won were against Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff.

Within their division, they were outscored by 37 total points. Against the NFC (the NFCE + DET) they dominated to the tune of +46 points.

Their defense is for real... it was Top 10... #8 in yards allowed and #3 in points allowed.

The key question is... how much better will Russ be than Teddy Bridgewater was? Certainly, he will be but by what measure?

I predict that Denver will go 10-7 this year and will be in the running for a WC berth, provided Russ and his young WR corps doesn't suffer season-ending injuries.

Something to factor. Teddy Bridgewater completed 67% of his passes on 3rd down last year. Over his career (didn't think it was fair to just use last year) Russ is at 59% completion percentage on 3rd down - his conversion rate was 32/32 last year. So is Russ a better statistical qb overall? Sure. But in the one key category that has plagued the Seahawks since Russ has been qb, he's worse than the guy he's replacing.

Also, statistically, Denver faced the highest pressure rate on 2nd and 3rd down in the league last year, or close to it. Teddy's conversion rate was impacted by the fact that as a result, a significant proportion of third down plays were dump offs to beat pressure. The formula will not change with Russ under center. Defenses know and have shown for years now that the way to beat Russ is to bring pressure, upset his timing and short / medium reads, and force longer looks down field... sit and wait fornhim to toss it up. Russ has been great at the long ball on running downs, not as great on known passing downs.

Finally, Denvers rushing attack was ranked near the bottom of the league on 1st and 2nd downs, leading to a proportionally high 3rd and long situations. 3rd and long equals pressure from the defense.

As much as Denver is being seen as the chariot upon which Russell will ride into a glorious future, free of the issues he was 'forced' to deal with in Seattle, on paper, by a few critical statistical measures, he's stepping into a situation that is actually his cryptonite. High pressure rates, low efficiency running the ball in early downs, leading ton3rd and longs, and his own historically poor performance in 3rd and long situations.


And the argument that Denver will build an offense around Russ... the offense in Seattle last year and the year before was Russell's. And in those 2 seasons (even before his injury), his performance on third down was below average, and near the bottom of the league. Has his new team shown the ability to set a better table for him than he had here?

I dont know what improvements the team made to fortify pass pro to improve on their abysmal 3rd down pass rate, or to their rushing game to pull them out of the dumps on 1st and 2nd downs, but unless I'm missing something, it's looking to me like that bed is gonna smell like sh!t pretty quickly.

 

[BASF]

Let's turn this thread in a slightly different direction.

Last year, Denver went 7-10, last in the AFCW. They went 3-9 in conference, 1-5 in their division, and 4-1 against the NFC. They were 0-4 against the AFCN.

The only games they won were against Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff.

Within their division, they were outscored by 37 total points. Against the NFC (the NFCE + DET) they dominated to the tune of +46 points.

Their defense is for real... it was Top 10... #8 in yards allowed and #3 in points allowed.

The key question is... how much better will Russ be than Teddy Bridgewater was? Certainly, he will be but by what measure?

I predict that Denver will go 10-7 this year and will be in the running for a WC berth, provided Russ and his young WR corps doesn't suffer season-ending injuries.

The departure of Fangio may be a negative for them. The drop off for the Bears was not as dramatic as the Niners, but each time Fangio leaves the defense drops in their effectiveness. They are also switching defensive schemes and, even by their writers admission, Shelby Harris was their best playmaker on the line. They threw a lot of money and are banking on Randy Gregory (who has substance abuse problems) whose best season was never better than Benson Mayowa's. There are a lot of question marks for their defense this coming season.