With the huge unknowns in terms of coaching and scheme, the floor/ceiling gap is larger than in most years. It's just so hard for me to look at this team and feel good about nailing a prediction within a win or two. I guess I wouldn't be shocked at 5-6 wins, but I equally wouldn't be shocked with 11-12.
Why 5-6 seems plausible: New schemes, but especially ones on offense with complicated motion and, probably, cadences. Not only could I see lots more false starts and delay of games, but with this hugely inexperienced OL I can see lots more assignment mistakes. So I could see a world in which we can count off 5 drives as lost causes before the kickoff, just because there might be 5 times where a false start is followed up by a pressured throw/sack from a missed assignment, and then they're in 3rd and 15. On defense, we're an injury at LB away from some real problems, we don't have a game-wrecking pass rusher, and I'm not convinced that our safeties can cope with extra time in the pocket. That's lots of question marks on both sides of the ball. I'm not saying I think any of this will happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did.
Why 11-12 seems plausible: These new schemes confuse defenses that haven't seen them, and even if MM's defensive schemes aren't new, they're so creative that knowing what the Ravens did last year or even what the Hawks did last week doesn't mean opposing offenses will have great ways to beat those schemes. So if they can keep mistakes down, we could see meaningful scheme advantages on each side of the ball. As long as Geno keeps getting the ball out quickly, that mitigates the blocking problems and there might not be a better receiving corps than the Hawks (and they're top 3 regardless). In a passing league, there is a believable world in which the Hawks are top-5 in points. On defense, I'm of the belief that a pocket-collapsing DT is the most important player other than QB, and with Williams and Murphy...holy s***, that could be absolutely deadly to other teams. That opens up Mafe and MM's creative rush schemes (which he can pull off without lots of blitzers), and with one of the best CB tandems in the league, I can see the Hawks being top-5 in pass defense. Top-5 points and top-5 pass defense is what we see on 13-win teams. Do I think this is likely? Probably not (mainly because of the OL), but I also don't think any of this is absurd homerism.
I suppose this lands me at a prediction of 8.5, so betting the over makes sense, but I honestly can't tell you if I think 6 or 12 are more likely. It's going to be an interesting year, at the very least. Which is so much better than we've been able to say for several years.
