The Athletic's Dugar Projects 8.2 Wins

[keasley45]

11 wins. Thats the floor. No way with better coaching, better o-line, better weapons, we have the same number of wins, or just 1 better than the crap show we fielded last year.

If crap-show equals 9 wins, all around improvement nets minimum 2 more.

Thats not homerism. Its pretty logical.

 

[knownone]

They also factor in the future. Kyler Murray is healthy, the rams get a healthy Kupp and stafford, Niners are always loaded etc. I think it’s fair. I don’t think it was a lock we win 10 games with Pete or with the new staff this year. I just think the NFW West was trending up and might be the best division in football. Tough to win 10 games in this division.

Let's examine the counterpoint, though. The Cardinals have one winning season in five years with Kyler. The Rams lost one of the most dominant defensive players ever, and their core offensive players are aging and injury-prone. The Niners are reshuffling the deck on defense with prominent losses and holdouts up and down their roster. They look like the 2015 Seahawks—good enough to win it all but with enough drama and off-field distractions to slow them down.

I don't think these Elo-style projections are unfair, but they are kind of silly. For example, most projections essentially assume our 30th-ranked defense doesn't improve. Imagine the outrage if that projection became a reality. Hurtt = Macdonald.

This team won nine games last year, playing the fourth toughest schedule with a quarterback who battled injuries for three-quarters of the season and missed two games. On paper, they've improved at nearly every level of the team besides tight end. Their schedule looks significantly easier. And their coaching staff should be improved.

Ten wins should be the mean. Eight would be just short of a disaster.

 

[evergreen]

How the hell do you get 0.2 of a win?

Mind blown.

You get an early lead then lose late?

 

[keasley45]

Let's examine the counterpoint, though. The Cardinals have one winning season in five years with Kyler. The Rams lost one of the most dominant defensive players ever, and their core offensive players are aging and injury-prone. The Niners are reshuffling the deck on defense with prominent losses and holdouts up and down their roster. They look like the 2015 Seahawks—good enough to win it all but with enough drama and off-field distractions to slow them down.

I don't think these Elo-style projections are unfair, but they are kind of silly. For example, most projections essentially assume our 30th-ranked defense doesn't improve. Imagine the outrage if that projection became a reality. Hurtt = Macdonald.

This team won nine games last year, playing the fourth toughest schedule with a quarterback who battled injuries for three-quarters of the season and missed two games. On paper, they've improved at nearly every level of the team besides tight end. Their schedule looks significantly easier. And their coaching staff should be improved.

Ten wins should be the mean. Eight would be just short of a disaster.

Well stated.

 

[flv2]

Every team makes changes to address their weaknesses. Every fan base thinks their team is going to be 2+ games better. Looking from the outside there are solid reasons to think this team will take a step back, but it's not what people want to read.

 

[Ozzy]

I hope you guys are right it just feels like we’re evaluating our team in a vacuum and leaving out any changes other teams have made. AZ was without their starting QB for multiple games and they add a generational talent as a weapon for him. They should be better

Let's examine the counterpoint, though. The Cardinals have one winning season in five years with Kyler. The Rams lost one of the most dominant defensive players ever, and their core offensive players are aging and injury-prone. The Niners are reshuffling the deck on defense with prominent losses and holdouts up and down their roster. They look like the 2015 Seahawks—good enough to win it all but with enough drama and off-field distractions to slow them down.

I don't think these Elo-style projections are unfair, but they are kind of silly. For example, most projections essentially assume our 30th-ranked defense doesn't improve. Imagine the outrage if that projection became a reality. Hurtt = Macdonald.

This team won nine games last year, playing the fourth toughest schedule with a quarterback who battled injuries for three-quarters of the season and missed two games. On paper, they've improved at nearly every level of the team besides tight end. Their schedule looks significantly easier. And their coaching staff should be improved.

Ten wins should be the mean. Eight would be just short of a disaster.

It's not a bad take but it seems a little off. So AZ doesn't get a boost for their QB missing time and playing hurt but Seattle does when its used as an example of why they should be better this year?

The NFL changes so much year to year. Seattle also put itself in the hole a little bit draft capitol wise, roster wise etc that they had to overcome this off season. AZ also gets a healthy QB back and added a generational weapon for him so that offense should be better. Rams best player was hurt all year too and now he appears to be healthy etc. The point is a ton changes happen year to year so past success isn't the best indicator of future success.

But to be fair you make some good points and I hope you're right and they are a 10 win team. On paper its possible for sure. I feel good about the future but worried it may take a couple of years to get the roster you need to run a completely different system.

 

[hawks85]

New coach, so they’ll regress from last season? Whatever???

Are these guys paying attention?

Are we just drinking the Kool - Aid?

Just not buying what they’re selling. 8.2 Ws, this is a serious?

Stongly of the belief the record will be 11-6. The D will be solid and special, the O will be steady and at times explosive. The team will make and then advance in the playoffs

We're gonna sweep the entire division and no one else will convince me otherwise. I'm not sold on the 9ers, Rams or Cardinals. This D is gonna open a lot of eyes come week 9 and everyone will be jumping on the bandwagon except us way up here in the PNW.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I appreciate your positive vibe, but there's little to no chance they sweep this division.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

There's flaw in the logic that saying they went 9-8 based on miraculous wins in their last game. The last game of the season didn't occur in a vacuum. There were multiple games played earlier in the year that could have gone either way. Barring multiple key injuries on the o-line, I expect our O to be better in the new scheme and JSN emerging.

MacDonald isn't going to turn us into the 2023 Ravens D overnight but I expect improvement there.

And even without having seen MacDonald handle a sideline I am going to say our management of things like timeouts and challenges will be better, mostly cause that's a low bar to clear.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Every team makes changes to address their weaknesses. Every fan base thinks their team is going to be 2+ games better. Looking from the outside there are solid reasons to think this team will take a step back, but it's not what people want to read.

Outside of new coaching (which, based on the study posted earlier, doesn't actually appear to be as big of an issue as I previously assumed), what exactly are the solid reasons you are alluding to?

 

[King Dog]

We're winning the whole damn thing

 

[AROS]

We're winning the whole damn thing

That's my boy right there.

 

[jammerhawk]

At this point, I'd agree that it is unlikely the team will win every game against our divisional rivals but think the team could easily accomplish a split with the Digits and a split or better with the Rams.

For sure the things the Rams did against for the past several seasons over the short middle are going to be defended successfully. The Niners will not be able to run at will against us as easily as they have in the past.

Still don't have much of a belief that AZ is going to be that much of a divisional threat. If the team can grind out 4 divisional Ws think at least the playoffs are a lock as well at least being in the conversation about the division.

Suspect though that SF will prevail but this could be their last year as their wheels are starting to get squeaky. 8.2 wins though, that's just wrong.

 

[RiverDog]

Vegas has the over/under on our win total at 7.5, so 8.2 is only slightly more optimistic. It's a reasonable take, at least judging by conventional wisdom.

Personally, I'm predicting a 9-8 record plus/minus 2, or 11-6 as a ceiling and 7-10 as a floor. I don't see this team doing a complete face plant, nor do I see them hoisting a Lombardi. It will be a good beginning for a young head coach.

If I were a betting man, I'd take over on 7.5 wins.

 

[Threedee]

How the hell do you get 0.2 of a win?

Mind blown.

I'm quite looking forward to it. I will fill my beer glass and snack bowl 20% of the way.

 

[flv2]

Outside of new coaching (which, based on the study posted earlier, doesn't actually appear to be as big of an issue as I previously assumed), what exactly are the solid reasons you are alluding to?

The Seahawks gained future compensatory picks because they lost players who signed sizeable NFL contracts with other teams. The Seahawks replaced those players with cheaper players. That's a down grade.The Seahawks went into the Draft with less Draft capital than the team would normally have had because of a previous trade. That's a down grade.

 

[DarkVictory23]

The Seahawks gained future compensatory picks because they lost players who signed sizeable NFL contracts with other teams. The Seahawks replaced those players with cheaper players. That's a down grade.The Seahawks went into the Draft with less Draft capital than the team would normally have had because of a previous trade. That's a down grade.

This isn't particularly specific, though.

Our projected comp picks are both related to the two most underperforming units on our squad, and while I would've liked to see Brooks back (and apparently so would've Schneider), I'm not seeing serious analysis about our ILB or OL units as being downgraded. The mere fact that a couple of dudes went elsewhere isn't analysis on its own.

And yeah, we didn't have a round 2 pick, but that's not a direct 'downgrade'. We got a player out of that trade and all draft capital is good for is potential. Saying 'your draft could've gone better' is not the same as 'your draft was bad'.

These read less like 'solid' reasons that we're going to take a step back and more like speculative reasons. Could these points end up being true in the final estimation? Sure, but nothing stands out here that reads to me like anyone is ignoring some inconvenient truths.

 

[94Smith]

I'm sick and tired of this. Put the entire Seahawks coaching staff on KC, GB, SF etc...and the prediction would be Super Bowl with 15 wins. I'm not saying this will be Seattle, but I don't see us winning 8 or 9 games. This team WILL win at least 12 games. People are sleeping on this team because of the coaching staff and it's BS.

Are you implying that your coaching staff is on par with perhaps one of the all time greatest coach’s Andy Reid with the best DC in spagnolo ? I don’t agree. Your OC has never called an NFL play has he? No way that’s on par with Lafleur , Shanahan nor Reid. Wasn’t he only a college OC for two years?

 

[hawks85]

Are you implying that your coaching staff is on par with perhaps one of the all time greatest coach’s Andy Reid with the best DC in spagnolo ? I don’t agree. Your OC has never called an NFL play has he? No way that’s on par with Lafleur , Shanahan nor Reid. Wasn’t he only a college OC for two years?

There was a point in time when your stupid head coach didn't call any NFL level plays either. As much as this pains me to say, your stupid team turned into a dominant one because of good coaching. Grubb will be fine. Coach Mike will be dominate with his defensive scheme installed on our beloved Seahawks. We get shitted out here in the PNW because we are the PNW. It's all good tho. When we're 8-1 going into our bye week everyone will be talking about this team especially the defense. By the way, we will sweep the division this year so get ready for that.

 

[94Smith]

By the way, we will sweep the division this year so get ready for that.

Sure

There was a point in time when your stupid head coach didn't call any NFL level plays either. As much as this pains me to say, your stupid team turned into a dominant one because of good coaching. Grubb will be fine. Coach Mike will be dominate with his defensive scheme installed on our beloved Seahawks. We get shitted out here in the PNW because we are the PNW. It's all good tho. When we're 8-1 going into our bye week everyone will be talking about this team especially the defense.

He hasn’t even been in the nfl yet. (Grubb)He’s not going to be calling plays against PAC 12 DCs anymore . Media have reason to be skeptical