Analyzing the Contenders Drafts + Cowboys Since 2013

[Fade]

2013 - No Pick
2014 - No Pick
2015 - No Pick
2016 - Germain Ifedi
2017 - No Pick
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2019 - LJ Collier
2020 - Jordyn Brooks
2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.

Holy Crap!

https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
*UPDATE*
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I'm doing a deep dive on the top 8 teams or thereabouts over the last 8 years + the Cowboys.
Looking at 1st round asset allocation firstly, the rest of their draft secondarily, and overall retention thirdly.

* If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as an "L."

* If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as an "L."

* If a team re-signed a guy (multi-year) and they succeed it will be classified as a "W."

* If a team moved on from a guy (multi-year) and they flopped it will be classified as a "W."

* The Bust label is applicable to 1st selection only, and ignored afterwards to avoid semantics. Unless the team in question has multiple 1st round picks, then all 1st rounders will be counted.

* 1st selections will be classified as busts who do not get big multi-year 2nd contracts with few exceptions, if any.

* 2nd selection and beyond, I am focusing on just the "Hits" (bigger multi-year contracts).

* 5 Designations in total: Hit, W, Retained, Bust, and L.

* SCORING SYSTEM:
+3 points for a Hit;
+2 points for Retained;
+1 point for a W;
Negative 1 point for an L;
Negative 3 points for a 1st Selection Bust;
Negative 3 points for Poor 1st rd Asset usage (Bad Trade).


First up is the 2013 NFL Draft.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 2013
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1st / 32 - Matt Elam (S) [BUST]
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Other Notable Selections:

094 - NT - Brandon Williams [W] 5 yrs $54M w/Baltimore - One of the best NTs in football.
130 - FB - Kyle Juszczyk [L] / 4 yrs $21M w/ SF + 5yrs $27M w/SF - Best FB in football.
168 - OT - Ricky Wagner [W] / 5 yrs $47.5M w/Detroit
203 - C - Ryan Jensen [L] / 4 yrs $42M w/Tampa Bay
UDFA - S - Brynden Trawick [L] Became a Pro-Bowl Special Teams Gunner with the Titans.
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Baltimore killed this draft, hitting on 5 players, but let 4 of them walk, smartly didn't pay Wagner, though.
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5 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 3 L's; 1 Bust = 13 points.


DALLAS COWBOYS 2013
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1st / 31 - Travis Frederick (C ) [HIT][W] - 5x Pro Bowl - 6 yrs 56.6M w/Dallas

*Dallas traded down from 18 to acquire the 74th pick which turned into:
Terrance Williams [L] 4 yrs $17M w/Dallas - Injuries and Substance abuse.
------
Other Notable Selections: None
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Dallas hit on Frederick, Williams was an okay starter until he got paid, the rest of their draft was career backups and busts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Hit; 1 W; 1 Retained; 1 L = 5 points.


GREEN BAY PACKERS 2013
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1st / 26 - Datone Jones (DL) [BUST]
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Other Notable Selections:

061 - RB - Eddie Lacey - All Rookie Team and Pro Bowler
109 - LT - David Bakhtiari [W] - 4 yrs 48M + 4 yrs $105.5M w/Packers - 2x All-Pro - 3x 2nd Team All-Pro.
122 - C - JC Tretter [L] - 3 yrs $16.75M + 3yrs $32.5M w/Cleveland - Current NFLPA President.
159 - FS - Micah Hyde [L] - 5 yrs $30.5M w/Buffalo - 2nd Team All-Pro w/Buffalo.
UDFA - G - Lane Taylor [W] - 2 yrs $4.15M w/Packers + 3 yrs $16.5M w/Packers. Starter.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Green Bay killed it, hitting on 5 players, Retaining Bakhtiari, losing Tretter because their O-Line was loaded. Let Lacey walk, but they won't get a W for it due to Lacey not getting a massive pay day when he fell off a cliff in SEA signing a 1 yr prove it deal (which he didn't).
--------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained; 2 L's; 1 Bust = 16 points.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2013
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1st / 1 - Eric Fisher (OT) [HIT][W] - 2x Pro Bowl - 4 yrs $48M extension w/Chiefs.
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Other Notable Selections:

063 - TE - Travis Kelce [W] 5 yrs $46M w/KC - 3x 1st Team All-Pro, 2x 2nd Team All-Pro.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Fisher barely qualifies as a hit. He was good enough to get a 4 yr extension and make a couple of Pro Bowls, Kelce is a HoF TE.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Hits; 2 W's; 2 Retained = 12 points


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2013
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2nd / 52 - Jamie Collins (LB) (1st Draft Selection) [HIT][W] - 1x Pro Bowl - Traded to Cleveland, avoided paying big money; 4 yrs $50M w/Cleveland.

*New England Traded down from 29 acquiring the 83rd, 102nd, and 229th from Minnesota.

083 - CB - Logan Ryan [L] 3 yrs $30M w/Titans + 1 yr $7.5M w/Giants + 3 yrs $31M w/Giants.
He pick six'd TB on his last throw in Foxborough w/the Titans in the Playoffs, has 18 career INTs. 2x Super Bowl Champion.

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Other Notable Selections:

091 - S - Duron Harmon [W] 4 yrs $20M w/NE - 19 Career INTs, 3x Super Bowl Champion.

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NE got incredible value with the 29th pick, then wisely traded Jamie Collins when he was asking for crazy money, shouldn't have let Logan Ryan walk, finally they extended Duran Harmon at a great rate.
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3 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 L = 12 points


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 2013
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1st / 15 - Kenny Vaccaro (S) [BUST]

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Other Notable Selections:

075 - LT - Terron Armstead [W] 5 yrs $65M w/NO - 3x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro.
144 - WR - Kenny Stills [W] 4 yrs $32M w/MIA. Fell off after getting paid.

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NO found a gem of a LT in the 3rd round, knew Stills wasn't worth paying so they traded him.
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2 Hits; 2 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 7 points


PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2013
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1st / 17 - Jarvis Jones (EDGE) [BUST]

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Other Notable Selections:

048 - RB - Le'Veon Bell [W] 2x 1st Team All-Pro - 4 yrs $52M w/NYJ.
206 - ILB - Vince Williams [W] 3 yrs $18.6M w/Pittsburgh.
UDFA - OL - Chris Hubbard [W] 5 yrs $37.5M w/Cleveland.
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Pittsburgh found the best young Runningback in football, then wisely didn't pay him as he floundered with the Jets. Big W. Found a starting LB in the 6th round and gave him a multi-year 2nd contract. Chis Hubbard was massively overpaid by Cleveland and was eventually benched.
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3 Hits; 3 W's; 1 Retained; 1 Bust = 11 points


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2013
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1st / 25 - Percy Harvin (WR) [Bad Trade][L] 6 yrs $66M w/Seattle

*Also traded a 2013 7th rounder, and a 2014 3rd rounder for Harvin.

2nd / 62 - Christine Michael (RB) (1st Draft Selection) [BUST]

* Seattle traded down from 56 for picks 165 and 199, did nothing with them.

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Other Notable Selections: None

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Seattle had 3 legendary drafts previously that put them in dynasty in the making territory. But this one might go down as the worst draft of the decade in the entire league. They selected 11 players, 12 if you want to include Harvin. They were all busts and backups. The Harvin trade did immense damage costing them multiple players down the road (can't keep everyone), and a future 3rd rd draft pick to boot. To add insult to injury Seattle spent their 1st selection on Chistine Michael as the heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch, passing up tons of O-Lineman in one of the great O-Line drafts of the century.
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0 Hits; 1 L; 1 Bust; 1 Bad Trade = Negative 7 points


THE RAMS (LA/ST. LOUIS) 2013
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1st / 8 - Tavon Austin (WR) [BUST][L] 4 yrs $42M w/The Rams.

* Leftovers from the RG III trade:
1st / 30 - Alec Ogletree (LB) [HIT][L] 2nd Team All-Pro - 4 yrs $42.75M w/The Rams.

*The Rams traded down from 22 picking up the 92nd and 198th picks, did nothing with them.
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Other Notable Selections: None

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The Rams overall had a terrible draft, but at least they were able to get quality play out of Alec Ogletree for 4 seasons. He fell off a cliff once he got paid though. Austin was foolishly given a big money extension as well despite doing really nothing of note for it. Never compiling 1,000 total yards in a single season as a runner/receiver. The Rams quickly regretted it.
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1 Hit; 2 Retained; 2 L's; 1 Bust = 2 points


TOTALS:
1st GB = 16 pts
2nd BAL = 13 pts
3rd KC = 12 pts
3rd NE = 12 pts
5th PIT = 11 pts
6th NO = 7 pts
7th DAL = 5 pts
8th RAM = 2 pts
9th SEA = -7 pts

I will post 2014 NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Cyrus12]

and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.

 

[jamescasey1124]

and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.

Let other teams develop them? Hmmm. Seems we dont have a choice if we arent using first rounders. You act like Adam's was the first time we did that. Let them develop. It's a better strategy then just drafting said analyst top 50 prospects. Which are always hit or miss. More miss than anything. Why not wait a year or two to see if that player pans out and then when you have a position of need bam take your shot to get em. Get over the whole Adam's thing. Since we dont draft 1st rounders...we trade for em. Proven ones and Adam's is that. It amazes me how some of you think 1st rounders equal great teams, when it takes a period of time to see if a 1st rounder is in fact a first rounder. By the way...you can be upset about picks as much as you want....but end of the day....jets had how many wins last year....how many will they have this year? Bet no more than last year. With our draft picks for the first round. We will easily be at least 10 and 6. Stop crying.

 

[pittpnthrs]

2013 - No Pick
2014 - No Pick
2015 - No Pick
2016 - Germain Ifedi
2017 - No Pick
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2019 - LJ Collier
2020 - Jordyn Brooks
2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.



Holy Crap!

https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

And some are still under the impression that the FO is awesome and can do no wrong. Its mind boggling.

 

[seabowl]

This is on par with the reporting that has been going on that Wilson is leaving for the Bears, Fins, Raiders and you make it.

Nothing like a half story.

How about putting who they got for giving up those picks like...

Jamal Adams etc...

 

[massari]

So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

rd 2 Frank Clark
rd 3 Tyler Lockett
rd 2 DK Metcalf
rd 7 Chris Carson
rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
rd 2 Justin Britt
rd 2 Jarran Reed
rd 4 Ugo Amadi
rd 5 Michael Dickson
rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
rd 4 Will Dissly
rd 5 Luke Willson
rd 7 David Moore
rd 6 Jacob Martin

Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.

 

[West TX Hawk]

So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

rd 2 Frank Clark
rd 3 Tyler Lockett
rd 2 DK Metcalf
rd 7 Chris Carson
rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
rd 2 Justin Britt
rd 2 Jarran Reed
rd 4 Ugo Amadi
rd 5 Michael Dickson
rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
rd 4 Will Dissly
rd 5 Luke Willson
rd 7 David Moore
rd 6 Jacob Martin

Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.

That's a pretty fair assessment-about an average of 2 quality picks per draft.

You have to take in account the various trades to fully evaluate but it appears 4 high quality players selected during that time (Clark, DK, Lockett, Carson) and several other starters/contributors. I'd be curious how this ranks against other teams as well.

 

[oldhawkfan]

So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

rd 2 Frank Clark
rd 3 Tyler Lockett
rd 2 DK Metcalf
rd 7 Chris Carson
rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
rd 2 Justin Britt
rd 2 Jarran Reed
rd 4 Ugo Amadi
rd 5 Michael Dickson
rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
rd 4 Will Dissly
rd 5 Luke Willson
rd 7 David Moore
rd 6 Jacob Martin

Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.

That’s a 20% hit rate in draft picks. I would bet it’s not far off the league average for a 7 years span.

 

[Maelstrom787]

So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

rd 2 Frank Clark
rd 3 Tyler Lockett
rd 2 DK Metcalf
rd 7 Chris Carson
rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
rd 2 Justin Britt
rd 2 Jarran Reed
rd 4 Ugo Amadi
rd 5 Michael Dickson
rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
rd 4 Will Dissly
rd 5 Luke Willson
rd 7 David Moore
rd 6 Jacob Martin

Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.

That's a pretty fair assessment-about an average of 2 quality picks per draft.

You have to take in account the various trades to fully evaluate but it appears 4 high quality players selected during that time (Clark, DK, Lockett, Carson) and several other starters/contributors. I'd be curious how this ranks against other teams as well.

Pretty good, and 2020 looks to be pretty successful as well, overall. There have been some bad whiffs, but Seattle overall gets better-than-average return on worse-than-average draft capital.

Here's a great write-up about it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -2010-2019

You'll be surprised to see that Seattle ranks above average on expected value returned from amount of draft capital they have, even if you sort by just the past 5 years to take out the insane LOB/Wilson drafts.

I'm disappointed to see more draft analysis based on arbitrary ideas about acceptable draft hit rates that simply don't match up with the reality of the situation. Rounds 2-7 have actually been well beyond what can consistently be expected league-wide as far as acquiring contributors goes. Can't wait to see this future breakdown, though.

 

[CostaRicaHawk]

So in Rounds 2-7 hasn't been that great either.

In 70 total picks from 2013-2019, I'd only consider these guys successful picks considering their production with the Seahawks for where they were selected in the draft:

rd 2 Frank Clark
rd 3 Tyler Lockett
rd 2 DK Metcalf
rd 7 Chris Carson
rd 3 Shaquill Griffin
rd 2 Justin Britt
rd 2 Jarran Reed
rd 4 Ugo Amadi
rd 5 Michael Dickson
rd 5 Quinton Jefferson
rd 4 Will Dissly
rd 5 Luke Willson
rd 7 David Moore
rd 6 Jacob Martin

Not sure about Marquise Blair yet.

Don't know if this is good or bad in comparison to other teams.

 

[Cyrus12]

and people wonder why we have to let other teams develop players so they can trade a ton for them. A very telling tale of what is going on.

Let other teams develop them? Hmmm. Seems we dont have a choice if we arent using first rounders. You act like Adam's was the first time we did that. Let them develop. It's a better strategy then just drafting said analyst top 50 prospects. Which are always hit or miss. More miss than anything. Why not wait a year or two to see if that player pans out and then when you have a position of need bam take your shot to get em. Get over the whole Adam's thing. Since we dont draft 1st rounders...we trade for em. Proven ones and Adam's is that. It amazes me how some of you think 1st rounders equal great teams, when it takes a period of time to see if a 1st rounder is in fact a first rounder. By the way...you can be upset about picks as much as you want....but end of the day....jets had how many wins last year....how many will they have this year? Bet no more than last year. With our draft picks for the first round. We will easily be at least 10 and 6. Stop crying.

Yep trade for them when they want insane contracts or leave after one year, then have nothing left in either cap or picks and fill holes with bums. Aka the oline and dline. Yes I know they've done this before and it mostly has backfired. Take the blue goggles off...superman.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Anyway, these late firsts Fade's trying to rile people up about? They're not worthless, but a team sure can get on without them. They're basically a lottery ticket with a 48% chance you'll get an above average starter out of it, and less than a 15% chance of getting a pro bowler. How I got those percentages is quoted below:

]For a more complete data set, we'll evaluate drafts from 2015 through 2019. Seattle (at least, their native pick) has been solidly in the back half of the first round in each draft being evaluated, so let's analyze picks 17 through 32 to see what your true likelihood of drafting a pro bowler is from those slots, based on the players that were actually selected in said slots.

From 2015 through 2019, there have been 79 selections made in the back half (Picks 17 through 32) of round 1. One of those selections was vacated by Belicheat for deflating balls.

Out of those 79 selections, 11 have gone to a Pro Bowl. I was even generous and added on Landon Collins, who went pick #33. Using your Pro Bowl qualifier for hitting on a first rounder (in back half of first, where Seattle picks), that gives us a league wide hit rate of.... 13.92%. For a positional breakdown of the aforementioned pro bowlers, plus Collins:

3 CB (B. Jones, T. White, M. Peters)
3 S (K. Neal, D. James, L. Collins*)
1 C (Ryan Kelly)
1 DT (Kenny Clark)
1 LB (LVE)
1 Edge rusher (Watt)
1 QB (Jackson)

Now, let's look at how many of these players were available at Seattle's native pick, meaning no trade up required, again, including Collins, not including Jackson because quarterback would be idiotic position for Seattle to pick early:

2015 - Collins (pick traded away for Graham)
2016 - Kenny Clark
2017 - T. White, Watt
2018 - LVE
2019 - None. No Pro Bowlers yet from 17 until the literal end of the draft, except Mecole Hardman. This'll change, obviously... with DK Metcalf, the Seahawks pick at 64.

That's 6. So 6 out of the 10 (technically 9, but again... adding Landon Collins) non-QB Pro Bowlers in the back half of the first round were available to Seattle without a trade up. Over 5 drafts.

Now, to make sure I'm being very thorough regarding the first round, let's analyze every single pick made from 17-32 in the 2015 through 2018 drafts to see how many of these guys end up being good starters, even if they haven't made a Pro Bowl. We'll chalk the non-good starters up in a bust column. I'm not including 2019 or 2020 because it's simply too soon to tell, and it'd be way too much of a projection to assign a label to them just yet.



2015:

17. Arik Armstead. Very good.
18. Marcus Peters. Good, Pro Bowler.
19. Cameron Erving. Bust.
20. Nelson Agholor. Career negative DYAR per Football Outsiders. Replacement level. Bust.
21. Cedric Ogbuehi. Has been terrible, is now a Seahawks backup. Bust.
22. Bud Dupree. Hit.
23. Shane Ray. 1 alright year, currently unemployed. Bust.
24. DJ Humphries. We're gonna call him a hit. His play has been bad at times, but quite good at others, including currently.
25. Shaq Thompson. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter. His best ball is behind him, but I'll be generous.
26. Breshad Perriman. Bust.
27. Bryon Jones. Good, Pro Bowler.
28. Laken Tomlinson. Bust.
29. Phillip Dorsett. Bust, on Seahawks.
30. Damarious Randall. Bust, on Seahawks.
31. Stephone Anthony. Bust. Unemployed.
32. Malcom Brown. We'll call him a hit. Decent starter.

Out of these 16, 9 were busts. Bust rate of 56.25%.


2016:

17. Keanu Neal. Hit. Probowl.
18. Ryan Kelly. Hit. Probowl.
19. Shaq Lawson. Average. Not a full bust, but not a good starter, so bust column.
20. Darron Lee. Holy bust.
21. Will Fuller. I'll very generously include him, considering he's been injured for nearly half his games. Career +DYAR.
22. Josh Doctson. B-b-b-BUST.
23. Laquon Treadwell. Bust city.
24. William Jackson. Hit.
25. Artie Burns. Bust.
26. Paxton Lynch. Bust.
27. Kenny Clark. Probowl.
28. Joshua Garnett. Bust.
29. Voided due to Belicheat's flat balls.
30. Vernon Butler. Replacement level. Not including as a good starter. Bust.
31. Germain Ifedi. We were definitely too hard on him, but we'll chalk him in the bust column. Bust.
32. Emmanuel Ogbah. We'll chalk him as a hit. Not a franchise rusher, but a decent enough starter.

Out of these 15, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 53.33% bust rate.


2017:

17. Jonathan Allen. Good starter. Hit.
18. Adoree Jackson. Sure, hit.
19. OJ Howard. I mean... he's plus DYAR, but injured a lot. We'll err on the side of hit.
20. Garrett Bolles. He gets a lot of hate, but I'm considering him a hit, even disregarding his improved 2020 play. But he's had a good few hiccups.
21. Jarrad Davis. He's playing better this year, but has been bad for every other year. Bust.
22. Charles Harris. Bust.
23. Evan Engram. He gets volume, but +8 DYAR for career? Nah, bust column. Not a "good" starter, just a starter.
24. Gareon Conley. Average. Bust column, not a good starter.
25. Jabrill Peppers. Let's call him a hit. Rough rookie season, good since.
26. Takk McKinley. He's right on the line. I'm gonna err bust. Fifth year decline, sacks numbers tailed off after 2 alright starting years in the league.
27. Tre'Davious White. Probowl.
28. Taco Charlton. Bust.
29. David Njoku. Bust. Injuries have hurt him, and he was no better than Engram to begin with.
30. TJ Watt. Hit. Probowl.
31. Reuben Foster. Obviously good, but bust due to off-field career sabotage and then injury. Bust.
32. Ryan Ramczyk. Hit.

Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or complete busts. 50% bust rate. Not as many outright busts this year.


2018:

17. Derwin James. Probowl.
18. Jaire Alexander. Hit.
19. Leighton Vander Esch. Probowl.
20. Frank Ragnow. Hit.
21. Billy Price. Bust.
22. Rashaan Evans. Replacement level bust.
23. Isaiah Wynn. Injured for most games. Bust.
24. DJ Moore. Hit.
25. Hayden Hurst. Bust.. but playing a bit better this year. Still not "good" starter.
26. Calvin Ridley. Hit.
27. Rashaad Penny. Talented, but bust.
28. Terrell Edmunds. Replacement level. Bust.
29. Taven Bryan. Bust.
30. Mike Hughes. On the bust side.
31. Sony Michel. We'll call him a hit.
32. Lamar Jackson. Probowl.

Out of these 16, 8 are replacement level or busts so far in their short careers. 50% bust rate.



Now, lets dig into this. We can see that the bust rate hovers around 50% at the backend of the first, fairly consistently, too.

So, let's start by editing the demonstrably inflated criteria for back-of-first-round success to just landing a good starter instead of a Pro Bowler. In these 4 drafts, the most recent drafts within which we can somewhat-comfortably assign a value/label to a player, 63 players were picked in the back end of the first round. 30 players were good enough to be assigned the label of being an above average starter.

That's a 47.6% chance of landing a good starter in the back of the first round. Less than a coin flips chance. With the pie-in-the-sky "SOP" of expecting a Pro Bowler from a first round pick, ignoring the context of these picks being LATE first rounders, you, the FANS are setting yourselves up for disappointment by misinforming yourself about the caliber of talent that's generally available. Stars do not grow on trees. The chances of getting a Pro Bowler, even with Seattle's HIGHEST pick, are very slim. Even expecting a GOOD starter from these late first rounders is slightly less than even odds.

 

[chrispy]

Really like the above article, but the comments afterward are also insightful. I think the Seahawks "swing for the fences" on every draft pick, every year. I think that negatively impacts high draft picks and positively impacts lower picks.

I think of it as follows: If a player expected to get picked in round 6 but gets picked in round 2 by the Seahawks, might they feel like they have "less to prove?" Alternately, if a player is picked in the lower rounds, perhaps they didn't expect to be picked at all or thought they'd go higher. Either way, that player was picked after the majority of players they'll face each week and might be more motivated. Of course, this is a generalization and there are lots of exceptions.

However, I think the above explanation tends to be accurate and aligns with what we all know about human nature. It also tends to explain the Seahawks' draft history. There tend to be more/good players coming from lower rounds than one might expect. There also tend to be more picks by this FO for Best Player Available as opposed to specific needs as well. That also means there tends to be positions where year-after-year there are needs.

In addition, draft analysis always focuses on a player's physical ability with "soft skills" as an afterthought. Coachability, Motivation, Teamwork, Attitude, Competition... tend to take a backseat to 40 time. Agreed, a 40 time is easier to quantitatively measure. Also agreed that the Wonderlic has been a dubious attempt to address this issue, albeit for one position. I don't think personality tests, like the Wonderlic, work consistently. People just answer questions how they think they should so they end up showing false results. They're really popular because it's very appealing to be able to quantify a person's soft-skills. But that can't be done by a test. However, I think there will come a time when NFL Teams invest more heavily in staff that specialize in interviewing and assessing a player's non-physical attributes. That as opposed to current scouting staff that primarily look at gametape. Teams have a dozen on their scouting staff and maybe one person they bring in as a consultant for draft interviews. Since the draft is almost random, if that investment is only slightly beneficial, over time it turns a team's draft from failure to success.

I point all that out from the perspective of being a headhunter for the past 25 years. You can talk to a person and their acquaintances/peers and gain the insight needed to predict how they'll react in the future. Again (and obviously) there are lots of exceptions. However, we're just talking about a difference of a few percentage points over decades making a huge difference.

 

[pinksheets]

Remember when we used to think we had the best FO in the league in those early PC/JS days?

Feels like an eternity ago.

 

[Jville]

Really like the above article, but the comments afterward are also insightful. I think the Seahawks "swing for the fences" on every draft pick, every year. I think that negatively impacts high draft picks and positively impacts lower picks.

I think of it as follows: If a player expected to get picked in round 6 but gets picked in round 2 by the Seahawks, might they feel like they have "less to prove?" Alternately, if a player is picked in the lower rounds, perhaps they didn't expect to be picked at all or thought they'd go higher. Either way, that player was picked after the majority of players they'll face each week and might be more motivated. Of course, this is a generalization and there are lots of exceptions.

However, I think the above explanation tends to be accurate and aligns with what we all know about human nature. It also tends to explain the Seahawks' draft history. There tend to be more/good players coming from lower rounds than one might expect. There also tend to be more picks by this FO for Best Player Available as opposed to specific needs as well. That also means there tends to be positions where year-after-year there are needs.

In addition, draft analysis always focuses on a player's physical ability with "soft skills" as an afterthought. Coachability, Motivation, Teamwork, Attitude, Competition... tend to take a backseat to 40 time. Agreed, a 40 time is easier to quantitatively measure. Also agreed that the Wonderlic has been a dubious attempt to address this issue, albeit for one position. I don't think personality tests, like the Wonderlic, work consistently. People just answer questions how they think they should so they end up showing false results. They're really popular because it's very appealing to be able to quantify a person's soft-skills. But that can't be done by a test. However, I think there will come a time when NFL Teams invest more heavily in staff that specialize in interviewing and assessing a player's non-physical attributes. That as opposed to current scouting staff that primarily look at gametape. Teams have a dozen on their scouting staff and maybe one person they bring in as a consultant for draft interviews. Since the draft is almost random, if that investment is only slightly beneficial, over time it turns a team's draft from failure to success.

I point all that out from the perspective of being a headhunter for the past 25 years. You can talk to a person and their acquaintances/peers and gain the insight needed to predict how they'll react in the future. Again (and obviously) there are lots of exceptions. However, we're just talking about a difference of a few percentage points over decades making a huge difference.

Thanks for sharing. I once considered life as a head hunter. I sometimes think it might have afforded me a better vantage point from which to understand human nature. I bet it's enriched your life.

Appreciated and enjoyed Maelstrom787's link to Benjamin Ellinger's work >>> [urltargetblank]https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019[/urltargetblank]

And, follow up post.

Thoughtful posts.

 

[TwistedHusky]

What would be interesting is to look back at drafts at what the order would be in a redraft vs other teams.

How many picks in other rounds would be 1st rounders vs other teams in the same circumstance?

Imagine we would have a bit of an advantage vs most teams.

Our draft strategy is sound for building talent. As pointed out with the failure rate, if you are drafting for upside then a 1st round pick with a 30-50% fail rate makes little sense. What makes more sense is more spins of the wheel. So maximize the # of picks with the tradeoff being loss of talent in the pool for each slot lost.

Even in lower rounds with a 70-80% fail rate, your chances of success rocket up with multiple picks.

This strategy maximizes the ability to bring in talent and hit on a pick. Problem? You don't get to pick where the hit comes from. So you cannot fill holes. And because you never build your process to get the best chance of success on the picks you need when you need them (ie when you do keep your first and use it), you probably hit at a lower rate.

That shows in our #s and the eye test.

We get the stud RB like Carson in the 7th or stud WR in the 2nd, almost reliably. But when we lose someone in FA or a trade, we are left with a gaping hole that takes years to patch...if we ever even succeed at it.

What we end up with are teams with tremendous potential that can never quite round themselves out. And then, because we don't need the 1sts and our process does not really depend on them, we trade them more often.

It isn't necessarily a bad strategy. It is great to get a team almost there. But to get to the next stage you have to be able to fill the holes and it is terrible for that.

 

[AgentDib]

I used to post a comparative analysis weighted by investment in the off-season with similar results as the linked article but have rethought the usefulness of that.

Judging by individual player misses the forest for the trees in the NFL where teams build rosters based on position groups. Consider if a team brings six players into camp to compete for three spots - are they guaranteeing themselves three hits and three misses? What really matters is how strong the position is that year and not where those players originally came from.

Positional strength weighted by investment is a better measurement of a front office than individual pick grades. Having the 15th best OL can be a good thing if we spent the 20th most resources on it, or a bad thing if we spent the 10th most resources on it. Resources spent include draft selections, draft picks in trade, contract dollars and even time invested in player development.

If we do have to judge based on player grades then it's also important to have reasonable expectations based on draft position. Fourth round picks KPL, Marsh and Glow each played in 80-90 games in the NFL. That's excellent for their draft position but you won't see them listed as a good pick in a casual analysis because they didn't become key starters here.

 

[chris98251]

When you are paying a QB and second contracts for starters you have to hit more on depth guys and UDFA's to keep up, we have our Poonas and Carsons and throw in DK and Lockett, but we do a lot of swing and miss for depth and trade picks for needs many times mid season which is saying desperation to teams that are not in contention and want picks or salary relief.

 

[Fade]

This is on par with the reporting that has been going on that Wilson is leaving for the Bears, Fins, Raiders and you make it.

Nothing like a half story.

How about putting who they got for giving up those picks like...

Jamal Adams etc...

It's actually worse if I add the players they traded for. I'm not trying to pile on here. :shock:

I'm going to do a deep dive on NE, GB, DAL, LAR, PIT, & BAL, and see what's what. I have no preconceived notions, I'm just curious what it looks like for other teams that win consistently with DAL thrown in.

 

[knownone]

2013 - No Pick
2014 - No Pick
2015 - No Pick
2016 - Germain Ifedi
2017 - No Pick
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2019 - LJ Collier
2020 - Jordyn Brooks
2021 - No Pick (Very Likely)
2022 - No Pick (Likely, unless they trade a blue chip player.)

WOW! Only 4 selections in the 1st round in a decade, bad picks to boot when they did pick. Brooks looks good but he is playing the RB position of the defense trapped behind Wagner.



Holy Crap!

https://old.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/m6odc4/til_poona_ford_will_become_only_the_seahawks/

Poona is only 4th player since 2013 to get a second contract from the Seahawks that they drafted/UDFA.

Britt, Lockett, & Reed being the others.

So in Rounds 2-7 & UDFA hasn't been that great either. I'm going to do a breakdown of other comparable teams when I have the time, but this is not good.

Normative analysis aside, this does not tell us what you are implying. Say what you want about Ifedi; he's been a starter for 5 straight years. That's a good pick, relatively speaking. Collier and Brooks are currently starters for us, leaving Penny as the one "bad" pick. Since all three of their careers are still in their relative infancy, it's hard to draw any meaningful conclusions about their value. Unless, of course, you rely exclusively on normative analysis. In which case you could make whatever case you want.

The contract extension thing is also a fairly meaningless indicator. We've had several guys, Shaq being the most recent, who've left the team for bigger paydays. So should we ignore all of the guys who've gone on to have success with other teams and assume they weren't good draft picks?

Furthermore, if you wanted to do a fair analysis, you'd have to compare Seattle with teams who've had a similar average draft position since 2013. Doing so narrows your list of teams down to KC and NE. Just taking a cursory glance, NE has been a disaster, and KC only has 2 1st round picks remaining since 2013.