Geno Is a Bridge, Nothing More

[WarHawks]

No qb exists in a vacuum. That is very true. But other qb's given similar obstacles are able to overcome them and score. That's what makes them elite. Geno simply is not. I don't see why you just can't acknowledge that. It's not a value judgement, it's simply an objective look at his overall body of work. Simply not good enough. He is what we have however, so it will have to do. For now.

 

[DarkVictory23]

No qb exists in a vacuum. That is very true. But other qb's given similar obstacles are able to overcome them and score. That's what makes them elite. Geno simply is not. I don't see why you just can't acknowledge that. It's not a value judgement, it's simply an objective look at his overall body of work. Simply not good enough. He is what we have however, so it will have to do. For now.

But who are these QBs? What are your examples?

I've put this challenge out on this board multiple times in threads extremely similar to this one and nobody has come back with any example: Find me ONE team in the last decade, who had a bottom 5 defense in both yards AND points, running backs who were both 20th or worse in success rate and yards per attempt, a WR corps who was bottom 10 in drop rate, an offensive line that is bottom 10 in pass blocking, and a schedule that was the 5th most difficult in the league and still had a winning record and almost made the playoffs.

You say someone else would do better so show me someone else who has done better.


In fact, different challenge: Drop the bottom of the league defense as a requirement. Ignore that and just find me one QB who led an offense that scored more efficiently than the 2023 Seahawks with the issues I just laid out on the offensive side of the ball, record be damned.

I've only found 1 team so far with those same issues (admittedly, I've only looked back 4 years). 2021 Giants. They went 4-13, were 30th in scoring percentage per drive and dead last in points per drive. The 2023 Seahawks were top half of the league in both metrics.

 

[DirectMessage]

Last 25 Superbowl Champs

Not sure if this is what you were looking for, it's from an reddit post. It's from 5 years ago? Don't know how accurate this, and I'm not checking that wall of numbers.




Offense Defense

1998 2 13

2006. 1 28

2009. 2 16

2011 9 24


2007. 15 16

2012 11 11

 

[xray]

It looks like about half the members like and defend Smith , and the other half thinks he's just a band aid that needs changing . If everybody is correct , than the Hawks can expect either an 8-9 or a 9-8 upcoming season again .

 

[DirectMessage]

It looks like about half the members like and defend Smith , and the other half thinks he's just a band aid that needs changing . If everybody is correct , than the Hawks can expect either an 8-9 or a 9-8 upcoming season again .

The crazy thing is that I see Geno Smith when I watch Penix. How's that explainable?

 

[WarHawks]

It looks like about half the members like and defend Smith , and the other half thinks he's just a band aid that needs changing . If everybody is correct , than the Hawks can expect either an 8-9 or a 9-8 upcoming season again .

Yep. More purgatory.

 

[xray]

The crazy thing is that I see Geno Smith when I watch Penix. How's that explainable?

Is Geno hurt ?

 

[xray]

Here's the FA QB alternatives to Smith , and assuming the Hawks don't draft a plug and play rookie in April .
Kirk Cousins
Ryan Tannehill
Baker Mayfield
Gardner Minshew
Jacoby Brissett
Jameis Winston

Some on that list are no better than Smith , and some , the Hawks can't afford anyway . That's why Smith is the guy for now . imo

 

[flv2]

It looks like about half the members like and defend Smith , and the other half thinks he's just a band aid that needs changing . If everybody is correct , than the Hawks can expect either an 8-9 or a 9-8 upcoming season again .

I don't think many members like Smith or will defend him. However, most members are unwilling to take a leap of faith by releasing him when there isn't a clear better-value alternative. The Seahawks can't afford a $40M+ QB and they may have to trade into the top 10 to get the #5 QB in the Draft, (who might not be worth the #50 overall pick). Smith is just an insurance policy, and people don't like paying for insurance.

9-8 won't be easy to improve upon. The only strength of the 2023 Seahawks was their offensive skill player unit. That unit is probably going to be weakened this offseason.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Last 25 Superbowl Champs

Not sure if this is what you were looking for, it's from an reddit post. It's from 5 years ago? Don't know how accurate this, and I'm not checking that wall of numbers.




Offense Defense

1998 2 13

2006. 1 28

2009. 2 16

2011 9 24


2007. 15 16

2012 11 11

It's an interesting ranking (and just eyeballing it, seems to mostly line up with what I remember about most of those teams), but no, not quite what I was looking for.

WarHawks made the assertion that "No qb exists in a vacuum. That is very true. But other qb's given similar obstacles are able to overcome them and score." He asserts that Geno is not capable of doing this thing that other QBs have--supposedly--done.

I'm asking for examples of QBs that have actually had offenses that are scoring efficiently with bottom tier OL, WRs who are dropping a lot of balls, RBs who are not efficiently producing yards on the ground, and facing a top-5 difficult schedule. If Geno is so darn mediocre and it's the standard for 'elite' QBs to do this then it shouldn't be (seemingly) impossible to cite an actual example of a QB doing this and yet... here we are.


Now, I'll admit. This is somewhat difficult. There hasn't been solid 'OL' stats for more than about 5 years and even drop rate hasn't been tracked that far back. But that's still a possible 160ish squads to look at a pluck and example out of.

I mean, it's not like all-time great QBs never lead mediocre offenses.

2023 Seahawks were 11th in Scoring Success Rate and 12th in Points Per Drive. Some notable QBs whose offenses were similar or much, much worse:

2003 Patriots - Brady (18th Scoring %, 19th PPD)
2014 Lions - Stafford (20th Scoring %!, 18th PPD)
2015 Packers - Rodgers (12th Scoring %, 10th PPD)
2018 Lions - Stafford (21st Scoring %!, 21st PPD!)
2019 Packers - Rodgers (20th Scoring %!, 19th PPD)

Even the great Patrick Mahomes led an offense that was 10th in Scoring % and 10th in PPD this past season. You notice how that doesn't look much better than the Seahawks? It's because it wasn't.

QBs get lots of credit for being on the same squad as elite defenses and special teams and get too much blame for not being on teams with the same.

Geno has been an above average or better starting QB the past 2 seasons. Planning for his replacement because he's heading into his mid-30s makes sense, thinking he's the 'reason' we can't get past 9-8 doesn't.

 

[DirectMessage]

It's an interesting ranking (and just eyeballing it, seems to mostly line up with what I remember about most of those teams), but no, not quite what I was looking for.

WarHawks made the assertion that "No qb exists in a vacuum. That is very true. But other qb's given similar obstacles are able to overcome them and score." He asserts that Geno is not capable of doing this thing that other QBs have--supposedly--done.

I'm asking for examples of QBs that have actually had offenses that are scoring efficiently with bottom tier OL, WRs who are dropping a lot of balls, RBs who are not efficiently producing yards on the ground, and facing a top-5 difficult schedule. If Geno is so darn mediocre and it's the standard for 'elite' QBs to do this then it shouldn't be (seemingly) impossible to cite an actual example of a QB doing this and yet... here we are.


Now, I'll admit. This is somewhat difficult. There hasn't been solid 'OL' stats for more than about 5 years and even drop rate hasn't been tracked that far back. But that's still a possible 160ish squads to look at a pluck and example out of.

I mean, it's not like all-time great QBs never lead mediocre offenses.

2023 Seahawks were 11th in Scoring Success Rate and 12th in Points Per Drive. Some notable QBs whose offenses were similar or much, much worse:

2003 Patriots - Brady (18th Scoring %, 19th PPD)
2014 Lions - Stafford (20th Scoring %!, 18th PPD)
2015 Packers - Rodgers (12th Scoring %, 10th PPD)
2018 Lions - Stafford (21st Scoring %!, 21st PPD!)
2019 Packers - Rodgers (20th Scoring %!, 19th PPD)

Even the great Patrick Mahomes led an offense that was 10th in Scoring % and 10th in PPD this past season. You notice how that doesn't look much better than the Seahawks? It's because it wasn't.

QBs get lots of credit for being on the same squad as elite defenses and special teams and get too much blame for not being on teams with the same.

Geno has been an above average or better starting QB the past 2 seasons. Planning for his replacement because he's heading into his mid-30s makes sense, thinking he's the 'reason' we can't get past 9-8 doesn't.

It's hard to quantify since there isn't a WAR like in baseball. Apparently PFF does one? Peyton Manning kind of embodies what Warhawk is talking about. He took some bad talent teams and made them highly competitive. Geno can put up some big numbers, and then crumble in the crunch time, IMHO. You can literally watch it in real time. He's going to get a pick, fumble, or throw short of the stick, etc. A entire team that embodies that is the Bills with Jim Kelley.

 

[DirectMessage]

Since Geno isnt the long term answer hopefully Grubb will force him to run more next year. It might open up his game more. Even those quick slants, TE sitting down in the middle like Pats use to do was devasting and almost impossible to guard. Those run, run, and then shot down the middle offenses really do need a good OL.

 

[DarkVictory23]

It's hard to quantify since there isn't a WAR like in baseball. Apparently PFF does one? Peyton Manning kind of embodies what Warhawk is talking about. He took some bad talented teams and made them highly competitive. Geno can put up some big numbers, and then crumble in the crunch time, IMHO. You can literally watch it in real time. He's going to get a pick, fumble, or throw short of the stick, etc. A entire team that embodies that is the Bills with Jim Kelley.

Yeah, but this isn't true. Every time Geno fails in crunch time, since it's what people think he does, it becomes 'proof' of that pre-existing belief. Every time he succeeds, it gets chalked up as an 'exception' to the rule.

But in reality, Geno led the league in game-winning drives and set the NFL record for go-ahead TDs in 4th quarter/OT and he did this despite missing two games due to injury. He was a top half QB in success rate. His numbers went through the roof when he's trailing with 4 mins or less left.

I mean, it's true there is no WAR because it's almost impossible to separate QB performance completely from the surrounding parts. That's my point. Even Peyton Manning had the 2002 Colts (16th in Scoring % and 15th in PPD, both worse than 2023 Seahawks).

 

[DirectMessage]

Intriguing. So in your heart of hearts, Geno is your guy going forward? Superbowl or bust, we ride the Geno bus? Would you ride him for the next 3-5 years and not worry about finding his replacement? I'm genuinely curious.

 

[Fade]

Whelp, JS tried shopping Geno at the combine and no one wanted him. He is not a desired commodity. So he is all but guaranteed to be the starter for '24.

Penix's arm is just too darn good to last to 16. Unless his medical is bad, but then would you want damaged goods?

Rattler looks like a future starter with upside, if he can some how last to the 3rd.

It's so crazy to think they moved Wilson for all of those picks, which really only made up for the Jamal Adam's trade, and failed to position themselves for a QB in the deepest QB draft in 40 years.

JS needs to work his magic, and pull the rabbit out of the hat on this one. As 5 QBs will be off the board before pick 16.

Rattler at 16 seems high, so trade down and snag him in the 2nd, as him lasting 'til the 3rd just doesn't seem likely to me.

Punting on QB another year is unimaginable given the circumstances, but it is looking like a reality.

 

[Chukarhawk]

The crazy thing is that I see Geno Smith when I watch Penix. How's that explainable?

I have no Idea, they are nothing alike.

 

[Chukarhawk]

we could easily win 10 games with Geno if they get the defense to between 10-15th place and improve the o-line.

 

[Chukarhawk]

We aren’t ready to not have a bridge, and I have no problem with Geno being it.

Agreed but if your guy is there at 16 by some miracle (east coast bias) you take him and let him sit and watch.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Off topic, Russell was released by the Broncos.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Intriguing. So in your heart of hearts, Geno is your guy going forward? Superbowl or bust, we ride the Geno bus? Would you ride him for the next 3-5 years and not worry about finding his replacement? I'm genuinely curious.

Honestly, no. I don't trust his body not to fall off a cliff in the next 2-3 years.

My point wasn't that Geno is the future (outside of this coming season, obviously) because how much can you count on any QB after they hit 35? (Hello New York Jets.) But if Geno was 25 or 28, we aren't even having this conversation. You'd absolutely be happy to have the Geno Smith we've seen in Seattle the last 3 years at 28.

But Geno did not do well when he first came into the league and here in Seattle, he replaced the most successful QB in franchise history whose departure was--let's say--controversial. So, people are stuck on a narrative that doesn't actually relate to his actual performance for us.