Geno, or no Geno?

[James in PA]

It's the age old question. A lot of 12's want change, but who do you replace him with? Another vet who may or may not be better (likely not)? A rookie who is not one of the top 3 prospects?

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I predict they keep Geno one more year and draft JJ McCarthy at #16 or maybe Bo Nix.

 

[flv2]

It's important to remember that owners, GMs, and HCs aren't just trying to win championships. They're running a business. That business is build on selling game tickets, concessions, replica shirts, and most importantly tv packages...every year...not just in the years when they're contending for championships. Smith isn't just a championship contender decision.

 

[bigcc]

That’s certainly the cleanest, but I’ve seen the argument that trading him results in the same savings if done early enough.

Not without risk if the market for a mid-tier, aging QB doesn’t manifest.

He would have to be traded by the end of either 3/16 or 3/17. That's when his roster bonus hits. Trade loses a lot of value for us at that point. Can't make trades until 3/13, but I'm not sure if you can negotiate before then or not.

 

[bigcc]

It's important to remember that owners, GMs, and HCs aren't just trying to win championships. They're running a business. That business is build on selling game tickets, concessions, replica shirts, and most importantly tv packages...every year...not just in the years when they're contending for championships. Smith isn't just a championship contender decision.

HCs don't give a flying **** about ticket sales, and neither do GMs. Wins bring sales as a secondary factor.

They signed Macdonald for 6 years, he can go 0-34 next two seasons and he still probably wouldn't be released, his entire contract is guaranteed.

From his perspective, it quite literally makes more sense to build for years 3-4+

 

[toffee]

For all the talk of his regression last year, there isnt much chatter about how well he finished down the stretch this year.

I think he gives us the best chance to maximize our potential right now. Sure, you could draft Penix or whoever else, but is that guy going to take you further than Geno could this year? And what other realistically available free agent QB is going to take you further than him and cost the same or less?

Bringing in a K Cousins might be an upgrade, but at a cost.

Trading him... ? Yeah. You could trade him for a 3rd. And then the guy you take with that 3rd pick is on a team that's pretty certain to again, not get much further than thr one last year of it doesn't have a qb capable of maximizing the potential of the offense.

We are on the same page, I doubt that we can trade or sign any QB that could be a clear upgrade to Geno. As for rookie, for every Stroud, at least 9 not so Stroud?

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Can't answer this until the draft. People are trying to decide whether to replace him or not without knowing whether the best option for replacing him (drafting a QB in the 1st) is even a good option this year. This is like polling us on whether or not to wear a rain coat two months from now.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Honestly, I’m kind of hoping for big time trade by 2/16. Geno is more than solid but I think it’s better in the long term to start cycling through younger guys through competition.

I’ve wondered if Geno, Walker, Dissly, Dre Jones, Woolen, and Dickson would be enough for the Bears to give us #9 and Fields.

If hypothetically the Bears like both Williams and Maye the same. But the Commanders want their choice to pick their top guy I can see them trading up for #1 and Woolen giving the Bears #2 and their top 2nd round pick. Woolen being expendable for the Bears as they have a quality defensive backfield with decent depth. Comms in return get another CB with play-making ability to pair with the guy they took last year.

Seahawks lose 6 solid to good players. But they get #9, which puts them ahead of Jets or Broncos who might be looking at QBs.

I just can imagine the Seahawks coming out with Penix at #9 (if the feeling is he won’t make it to 16) and you can grab a solid IOL or DL, trade down, or perhaps add Bowers at #16.

It makes since to Chicago as Geno, Walker, Dissly can help install Waldron’s offense. Geno would help bring up their young QB, Walker could be a creative option in thier backfield with Herbert and RoJo or a future trade chip, Dissly would pair nicely with Kmet and help solidify depth where they had to rely on Marcaedes Lewis and Jon Tonyon (sp?). I think Jones would help solidify their DLine and if remember correctly they were looking into him last season and were right there with the Seahawks in negotiations and Dickson with Santos looks a potentially great combo on paper. Imo, they wouldn’t be too far off in terms of being able to compete.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Think about Geno in terms of that SB game we just watched vs. SF compared to Patrick Mahomes (granted tough to compare to the greatest first few seasons ever but bear with me). Geno was horrible against 3-4 defenses with disguised blitzes (SF/BAL).

Both of them have rifle arms and can make all throws.

However, Mahomes is so good at diagnosing blitzes and getting the ball out quick... running for 1st downs. Geno turns so many plays into negative plays by holding the ball or picking the wrong receiver. He's excellent in a clean pocket, and when he picks the right target, but I don't think he comes off targets very quickly and he cannot make anything happen with his legs. So, the passing stats look pretty good for Geno but I'm not sure those are perfectly indicative of a QB who tilts the field.

Could you win a SB with Geno? Maybe. If you had a coach like McVay where the progressions are easy and guys are open.. he'd be great.

When you look at big games, I feel like QBs extending plays with their legs is such an imperative quality.. Russ was never an incredible passer, but when he was so good at scrambling in the pocket, extending drives on 3rd down with his legs..etc We were soo much more difficult to beat in big games.

Patrick Mahomes JUST became the first QB ever to win a championship being paid near the top in the league.. At $50MM, you need Geno to do more than make good passes in a clean pocket. Geno does make the occasional good play where he feels the pocket and steps up, but it's not a normal occurrence.

First and foremost, let's get this out of the way: Patrick Mahomes is on his way to becoming one of the top 3 QBs of all-time. Some might argue he's already in that conversation, but I'm more circumspect. Regardless, that is his career trajectory.

Geno Smith is not. It's not even an option for him at this point of his career, I don't even really care what he looks like next year or any year after that one.

But like... none of this analysis seems to be based on Geno's actual play.

For one, Geno doesn't 'turn so many plays into negative plays'. During his time as a starter here, Geno has been the 10th* best QB in the league for success rate. So literally only 9 QBs over the past two seasons have more consistently produced positive plays when they drop back. (Yes, one of them is Mahomes.)

Can't do anything with his legs? Geno was top 10 in yards per scramble this year. (#9... Mahomes was #8.)

Over the past two years, Geno is #10 in success rate, #8 in passer rating, #11 in QBR, and #10 in ANY/A. He did this despite being the 12th most (2022) and 6th most (2023) pressured QB, with an offensive line that was rated 25th in PBWR this season (Mahomes OL was #1) and you think he only makes an 'occasional' good play reacting to pressure?


My takeaway from the Super Bowl has been different than most, because here is the truth: Patrick Mahomes was not great this year. Oh, he was good, don't get me wrong and he still did things all year that only Patrick Mahomes could do. But his overall performance as a QB was top 15, not top 5. And you know what? He still won a Super Bowl.


SIDE NOTE: Russ was never an incredible passer? I mean, perhaps this isn't what you meant, but Russ was (maybe even still is) one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL.

EDIT: Fixed some numbers that I got wrong. Geno has actually been #10 over the past two seasons in success rate, not #8. However, one of the two who was better than Geno in that stat was some guy named Thomas Brady Jr. Never heard of him, but apparently he was a pretty good QB?

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

We are on the same page, I doubt that we can trade or sign any QB that could be a clear upgrade to Geno. As for rookie, for every Stroud, at least 9 not so Stroud?

True about Stroud but you can't just keep rolling with a mid tier quarterback that will never get you anywhere unless you are willing to tank or be terrible for a few years to get very high draft picks to either get a top quarterback or do what San Francisco did and take years to build an entire team loaded with high draft picks.

 

[12AngryHawks]

I predict they keep Geno one more year and draft JJ McCarthy at #16 or maybe Bo Nix.

I have a feeling this is their plan.

 

[Maulbert]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Geno is not, and was never, our future. But I want us to draft a guy and let him sit and learn, like Mahomes, like Love, like Rodgers. And I am content and quite happy to have Geno as the starter next year while a new guy learns the ropes. Drew Lock is not the guy. He's got a stronger arm and is younger than Geno, but that's it. He is not our future, either. Keep Geno.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Unless his contract is completely reworked I just don't think they can keep him even if they wanted to. I quite literally don't understand this aversion to being bad for a year or two with the goal of being true contenders in 2026 similar to Detroit etc.

 

[lukerguy]

First and foremost, let's get this out of the way: Patrick Mahomes is on his way to becoming one of the top 3 QBs of all-time. Some might argue he's already in that conversation, but I'm more circumspect. Regardless, that is his career trajectory.

Geno Smith is not. It's not even an option for him at this point of his career, I don't even really care what he looks like next year or any year after that one.

But like... none of this analysis seems to be based on Geno's actual play.

For one, Geno doesn't 'turn so many plays into negative plays'. During his time as a starter here, Geno has been the 8th best QB in the league for success rate. So literally only 7 QBs over the past two seasons have more consistently produced positive plays when they drop back. (Yes, one of them is Mahomes.)

Can't do anything with his legs? Geno was top 10 in yards per scramble this year. (#9... Mahomes was #8.)

Over the past two years, Geno is #8 in success rate, #8 in passer rating, #10 in QBR, and #10 in ANY/A. He did this despite being the 12th most (2022) and 6th most (2023) pressured QB, with an offensive line that was rated 25th in PBWR this season (Mahomes OL was #1) and you think he only makes an 'occasional' good play reacting to pressure?


My takeaway from the Super Bowl has been different than most, because here is the truth: Patrick Mahomes was not great this year. Oh, he was good, don't get me wrong and he still did things all year that only Patrick Mahomes could do. But his overall performance as a QB was top 15, not top 5. And you know what? He still won a Super Bowl.


SIDE NOTE: Russ was never an incredible passer? I mean, perhaps this isn't what you meant, but Russ was (maybe even still is) one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL.

The reason I brought up Mahomes is because of the things he does so well, not necessarily because Geno should be compared to him. I covet a skill set where they process well, convert 3rd downs with their legs, and can make enough good throws to make a defense honest. You could just as easily compare Jordan Love.


Sack rate of Mahomes- 4%
Sack rate of Geno- 6%
Sack rate of Jordan Love- 4.5%

Geno may have been 8th in yards per scramble but Mahomes had 27 1st downs rushing, Prescott 21, Stroud 18, Jordan Love 16 and Geno had 10.. Mahomes and Allen both ramp those up in big situations.. All of those players are pocket passers.

This actually illustrates my point with Geno: I think he has the skills to be elite, but I'm not sure he processes in an elite way. Maybe he can develop this? Do you remember when he missed JSN vs Cinci on a wide open wheel? Then in another game he had an easy 1st down rushing with 10-15 yards on 3rd down and tried to squeeze a ball in passing 20+ yards downfield? I'm not sure his decision making is elite and that's the most important trait in a QB. I agree that he can make all the throws, and that he is an excellent passer.

My point is that I think you need a QB with an X factor and unless you're Tom Brady, most of the top QBs use their legs more effectively than Geno to buy time to throw or gain it running.

I'm hopeful they find a guy at 16 who they can put on an entry level contract with some running versatility and accuracy.

Russ was one of the best deep ball passers in the league which worked well until defenses found out he couldn't throw short or intermediate middle passes.

 

[Parallax]

When I watch Geno, I just don't see what some fans appear to see. Lately people say he has a great arm. I don't see it. It's alright. He's accurate. But not super strong. He doesn't have the moon ball like Russ. Lock's arm is considerably better and I don't buy the argument that Lock is less accurate. He mostly looked very accurate. Needs more time to build chemistry with the starters.

Geno's mobility is average. He was sometimes clutch but sometimes exactly the opposite. Super streaky. Against good defenses, he crumbled more often than not. Washington almost beat us at home. In the Chargers game, it was a lucky break that gave us the win. Adams didn't even see the ball that hit his helmet.

In my view, Lock looked like he offered way more upside. I'd have liked to roll with him this last year and the year before. I'd be happy if he got his chance now.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

When I watch Geno, I just don't see what some fans appear to see. Lately people say he has a great arm. I don't see it. It's alright. He's accurate. But not super strong. He doesn't have the moon ball like Russ. Lock's arm is considerably better and I don't buy the argument that Lock is less accurate. He mostly looked very accurate. Needs more time to build chemistry with the starters.

Geno's mobility is average. He was sometimes clutch but sometimes exactly the opposite. Super streaky. Against good defenses, he crumbled more often than not. Washington almost beat us at home. In the Chargers game, it was a lucky break that gave us the win. Adams didn't even see the ball that hit his helmet.

In my view, Lock looked like he offered way more upside. I'd have liked to roll with him this last year and the year before. I'd be happy if he got his chance now.

This is where I'm at because people need to get off this always comPETE crap and accept and understand that the NFL is literally setup to be cylindrical and sometimes you are going have periods where you have a couple bad years record wise regardless of what you do at some point.

 

[DJ_CJ]

Geno stays another year all while we draft one this year to sit and lean. Anyone thinking or arguing Geno was somehow viewed as our QB of the future is will out of touch. Transitional from the very moment of his contract breakdown. All while many are trashing on Geno even though playing at/or above any QB thats at his pay scale. Geno was by far not our glaring weakness by far.

 

[WarHawks]

Sometimes in life you need to he willing to take a step backwards to take a step forward. Hanging on to 8-9 wins in perpetuity doesn't allow us to move forward.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I'm not sure more than a couple on here would actually think Geno is the future. I honestly am fine with him one more year OR them moving on. This is going to take a couple years for the new coaching staff to build this thing up how THEY want it.

 

[CactusJack]

Cutting him only saves $13.8m on the cap. At that point you still don't have a QB under contract.

Do you bring back Lock for $7-8m on a one year deal? What's the plan? Other than drafting someone & having them start week one?