Pay Geno

[Maui12thman]

Regression to the means. Unicorns are not real.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

So far so good. Still a LOT to be determined on Geno. But overall, he has been damn good compared to what I expected.

 

[chrispy]

Pay him or don't pay him isn't a real question.... It's how much.

QB salaries/cap

Who is Geno relative to other QBs (outside of those on their rookie deals). He's only got 5 games in so I guess that discounts it... Is the comparison:
Stafford?
Wentz?
Cousins?
Tannehill?
Carr?

If you want Geno over any of those players, you've got to pay their contract. That's 25-35mm.

Assuming Geno doesn't fall off a cliff, I could see JS signing Geno to a short contract (1 or 2 years) with fully guaranteed money in or near that range. That gives Geno a shot at another big contract quickly and allows Seahawks a rookie competition. It also allows for a trade-and-sign if Seahawks have a rookie that comes along quickly. The kink is if a different team wants him more. It's unknown...the RCW drama may scare off suitors from Geno...??? So... it's in JSs best interest to get a deal done before Geno's a FA. If there's no extension by game 15 or 16, he's going elsewhere. In that case, the three-way competition next off-season would be Lock, a new FA and a rookie.

 

[Rat]

Assuming Geno doesn't fall off a cliff, I could see JS signing Geno to a short contract (1 or 2 years) with fully guaranteed money in or near that range. That gives Geno a shot at another big contract quickly and allows Seahawks a rookie competition.

I can't see Geno being amenable to that. As a second round pick who has just signed backup deals with other teams in free agency, he has never gotten that payday. Being 32 and his stock likely being much higher than it has ever been, I'd be shocked if he'd be willing to sign a short-term contract. I'd like if he did, but frankly, he'd be pretty stupid to.

 

[Jegpeg]

I heard some "experts" talking about what Geno will be making next year. Trubisky's name was brought up as a reference point. They seem to think that Geno will cost in the $25 mil range. Thoughts?

Not sure why Trubisky's name was brought up, dumped by the Bears, taken on as a backu pfor the Bils and then signed by the Steelers in a 3 way fight for the starting roll on a salary of $7.5m APY. Geno is worth a lot more than that question is how much more.

More relevent examples:

Baker Mayfield had been the started for the Browns since drafted but the Browns decided he wasn't good enough and needed to part with three 1st rounders and change for Deshaun Watson. The panthers decided he was good enough for them as a starter and $15m APY

Jameis Winston, Axed by the Buccs after becoming a laughing stock for the number of interceptions he threw was taken by the Saints at Brees back-up. When Brees retired they decided tpo promote him to starter and did well for the first 7 games become getting injured for the rest of the season. He did OK in those games and the Saints offered him a new contract of $14m APY.

Jimmy Garapolo (2018) a back-up who played well in 2 starts for the Pats and 5 for the 49ers. The 49ers trusted that was enough to determine he was a franchise QB and paid him $28.5m APY, the largest contract in NFL history. (As a % of cap this is likely to be the equivalent of about $35m next year)


I think Jameis Winston is closest to where Geno is now, Winston had more experiance as a starter but Geno's recent play is better than Winston's games for the Saints. The Jimmy G example shows just how crazy pay can get. If Geno is continues to be ranked as a top 10 QB for the season as a whole I would expect someone to pay him at least $25m. (Whether it is us or someone else) Obviously if the rest of the season is more like Justin Fields he will get a lot less.

 

[Jegpeg]

Sorry, but if you think 32 yo Geno Smith leading a .500 campaign is gonna command 30-50 million a year, your wrong. Please do not forget that this IS a rebuild year, the Strategy going forward is (see circa 2010-15) build roster, then plug in QB on a rookie deal.

the three QBs you name are literally the 3 exceptions. And to make any Geno comparison the likes of Brady or Rogers is beyond insane. also, Geno has played 50 games, has been sacked over 100 times and his miles are hard miles. Geno, should he continue his pace is literally a unicorn. If you think the Hawks brass wanna hitch their wagon to the Journeyman Geno Smith. I disagree.
however, he could be the perfect bridge QB for the next 2-3 years. But the model the Brass will not waver from is first putting the machine together, and then giving the wheel to a youngster on a rookie deal. Please, no more wind-ups.

$50 isn't going to happen on a 0.500, that would require him carrying our defence to the NFC championship game and that is extremely unlikely.

$25m to $30m is more likely that puts him still below Stafford, Wentz, Carr, Goff, Tannahill and the likes.

OK I agree Geno isn't in the class of Brady, and Rogers, I was just pointing out unless they are axed as not being good enough or get too injured t continue QBs can go into their late 30s. Maybe you prefer Chase Daniel as an example

 

[BASF]

It is so interesting seeing how many victims Hero-ball Syndrome (my new term for what has become more and more prevalent around here, what do you all think?) has claimed here. So many Russell Wilson marks have seen him dog it in the first three quarters (while blaming Carroll) only to uncork it in the fourth for so long that it is now their expectations. The problem with that is it is not sustainable and doesn't happen against winning football teams. The Hero-ball Syndrome initiator only has one game winning drive against a team that finished over .500 in the past five seasons. All the while dogging it early so he could be the hero at the end. I am not counting the game with the Cardinals last season because we were tied going into the fourth quarter and Wilson ran in for a score only two minutes into the fourth. We never trailed again. We were never tied again. How the hell is that a fourth quarter comeback?

As far as paying Geno, I would like to see him signed for two seasons. That way our QB from this draft can sit behind him and learn for a season or two.

 

[Maui12thman]

The revelation that is Geno Smith, provided it sustains itself for the duration of the year has led me to change my opinion slightly- signing Geno to a two-year contract instead of a one-year contract. And also instead of looking for the quarterback at the top end of our draft next year feeling comfortable getting our quarterback in the second third or fourth round. Especially given the number and the types of quarterbacks available. It’s rather obvious that we would be best served by committing three of our first four picks to the defensive side of the ball.

 

[Seahawker]

The revelation that is Geno Smith, provided it sustains itself for the duration of the year has led me to change my opinion slightly- signing Geno to a two-year contract instead of a one-year contract. And also instead of looking for the quarterback at the top end of our draft next year feeling comfortable getting our quarterback in the second third or fourth round. Especially given the number and the types of quarterbacks available. It’s rather obvious that we would be best served by committing three of our first four picks to the defensive side of the ball.

Much agreed.
Geno will make 7M this year which is the low end for starters, if he continues his current level of play I would offer him a 3 year deal when the time comes, roughly.

Yr 1>17M base + 5M incentives, 17M guaranteed, 22M total.
Yr 2>17.5M base + 5M incentives, 13M guaranteed, 22.5 total.
Yr 3> 22.5M base + 5M incentives, 2M guaranteed, 27.5 total.

3 year, 72M total, 32M guaranteed. incentives top 10- passing yards, TD's, completion %... reach two of three.
Puts him right in the middle of the pack for league starters. That is all I would be willing to pay a veteran starter with the very attractive option of drafting & paying a rookie for far less on the board.

 

[Fade]

Much agreed.
Geno will make 7M this year which is the low end for starters, if he continues his current level of play I would offer him a 3 year deal when the time comes, roughly.

Yr 1>17M base + 5M incentives, 17M guaranteed, 22M total.
Yr 2>17.5M base + 5M incentives, 13M guaranteed, 22.5 total.
Yr 3> 22.5M base + 5M incentives, 2M guaranteed, 27.5 total.

3 year, 72M total, 32M guaranteed. incentives top 10 passing yards, TD's, completion %... reach two of three.
Puts him right in the middle of the pack for league starters. That is all I would be willing to pay a veteran starter with the very attractive option of drafting & paying a rookie for far less on the board.

Under the context he somewhat maintains this level of play throughout the season...

If you draft his replacement early, and lowball him, he isn't signing with the Seahawks.

People must understand what tier 2 QBs make and realize that is the floor due to the cap going up.

- Matt Ryan $30M APY

- Carson Wentz $32M APY

- Jared Goff $33.5M APY

- Kirk Cousins $35M APY

If you're running the Seahawks and Geno's agent is arguing he is worth just as much as these guys and should be compensated accordingly.

What is your counter argument he isn't, and whytake way less and stay with the Seahawks, when several teams around the league will gladly pay him his market value?

 

[LeveeBreak]

I need to see him sustain it through the end of the season before I go there, but as of now I'd rather do this than stake it all on a rookie (that they'll have to trade up for to get a guy worth staking it on anyway).

Agree with wanting to see more before extending to a starting QB contract...but waiting to EOY brings big risk. Back when I used to negotiate NFL QB contracts, I would wait until the mid year to begin talks of a fair-but-friendly 3 year contract. Good signing bonus & last year salary. Assuming the level of play does not fall off, deal is signed by week 12-13. Risk of injury might get it done.

 

[IndyHawk]

Under the context he somewhat maintains this level of play throughout the season...

If you draft his replacement early, and lowball him, he isn't signing with the Seahawks.

People must understand what tier 2 QBs make and realize that is the floor due to the cap going up.

- Matt Ryan $30M APY

- Carson Wentz $32M APY

- Jared Goff $33.5M APY

- Kirk Cousins $35M APY

If you're running the Seahawks and Geno's agent is arguing he is worth just as much as these guys and should be compensated accordingly.

What is your counter argument he isn't, and whytake way less and stay with the Seahawks, when several teams around the league will gladly pay him his market value?

I like it..Fade has put Russ in the trunk.
Hard to argue that Geno isn't as good/better at this point to those QB's listed.
Geno is ours we won't be drafting a high pick QB this year..2/3 yrs maybe.

 

[Seahawker]

3 year, 72M/32M guaranteed is a fair offer for a 32 y/o career journeyman backup who has currently thrown for 43 TD's in nine years.
It would be very interesting to see how many offers Geno would get on the open market if he continues to play at a top 10 level.
The 23' draft will hold plenty of choices for QB needy teams and most if not all will snag one before day 3. Most GM's looking to draft a franchise quarterback will not be willing to simultaneously pay a vet a significant contract. Geno's best fit would be more a playoff caliber team ready to win now, if he gets that payday you shake his hand and wish him the best of luck.
I don't think franchise tagging GS (even non exclusive) would be a good option considering the cap room we'll need to improve this team. I would love to see Geno continue on as our starter but this is about what situation is best for him. If he leaves maybe we can re-sign Lock to a cheap deal while our rookie QB develops. BTW, after the RW fiasco, I don't think many teams will be dumping wheel barrows of cash at a Seahawk QB's feet. I could be wrong though.

 

[Maui12thman]

Under the context he somewhat maintains this level of play throughout the season...

If you draft his replacement early, and lowball him, he isn't signing with the Seahawks.

People must understand what tier 2 QBs make and realize that is the floor due to the cap going up.

- Matt Ryan $30M APY

- Carson Wentz $32M APY

- Jared Goff $33.5M APY

- Kirk Cousins $35M APY

If you're running the Seahawks and Geno's agent is arguing he is worth just as much as these guys and should be compensated accordingly.

What is your counter argument he isn't, and whytake way less and stay with the Seahawks, when several teams around the league will gladly pay him his market value?

3 of the 4 above have been to the Super Bowl and have a much larger body of work. But if Geno was to miraculously continue this torrid pace for the full season, well then, all bets are off. It only takes one GM to think he can uproot Geno and place him in a completely different situation, different coach, coordinator, different team and get the same results. Many have done this and failed. I’d think there be regression to the means.

 

[chris98251]

I like it..Fade has put Russ in the trunk.
Hard to argue that Geno isn't as good/better at this point to those QB's listed.
Geno is ours we won't be drafting a high pick QB this year..2/3 yrs maybe.

When was the last time we had success drafting a high pick as a QB, Ric Mirer? Dan McGwire ? Or did you count Kelly Stouffer from the cards also ? Steve Myer was the best we have got I think as a 2nd rounder and he was injured almost right away once he played with a broken neck.

 

[Appyhawk]

I still think there is a probability that Geno does not make it through the rest of the season healthy, elevating Lock to starter to end the year. As for signing Geno...2 yr max and heavily incentive laden. I think Geno is a different duck and wants to remain a Seahawk.
A draft QB will not start the first year no matter who it is.

 

[ryank24]

Under the context he somewhat maintains this level of play throughout the season...

If you draft his replacement early, and lowball him, he isn't signing with the Seahawks.

People must understand what tier 2 QBs make and realize that is the floor due to the cap going up.

- Matt Ryan $30M APY

- Carson Wentz $32M APY

- Jared Goff $33.5M APY

- Kirk Cousins $35M APY

If you're running the Seahawks and Geno's agent is arguing he is worth just as much as these guys and should be compensated accordingly.

What is your counter argument he isn't, and whytake way less and stay with the Seahawks, when several teams around the league will gladly pay him his market value?

The argument is that none of those quarterbacks are worth the money they're making, and if they were free agents right now none of them would get paid that much. Those contracts were signed under very different circumstances.

Wentz was phenomenal in his second season, got some MVP votes, led his team to the post season (missed the post season because he was injured) and was looking like a future superstar at 25 years old. He followed that up with a down year where he dealt with some injuries, and then cashed in on a huge deal when everybody thought he would bounce back. He was never the same after that, and I can't imagine the Eagles were satisfied paying him that much money because they ended up getting rid of him.

Matt Ryan won MVP in 2016 and had a long track record of being at least solid when he signed that extension at 33 years old in 2018. But he's 37 now as that contract is coming to an end, and he's not worth that kind of money anymore. The first 3 years of that contract where he was throwing 4,500+ yards and 25+ TDs, sure he was worth that much.

Goff was the starter for several years and had just been to a super bowl. Cousins had been a starter the previous 3 seasons throwing over 4,000 yards and playing really solid for the WFT.

Geno is only 5 games into the year as a starter, coming off 6 consecutive seasons as a back up, and is 32 years old. I think the only way anybody is paying him $30m+ per year, is if he continues this blistering pace he's on AND some team thinks he's a long term solution at QB. If he's signed to be a 2-3 year bridge for us or anybody else, that number will probably be a lot less.

 

[Spin Doctor]

3 year, 72M/32M guaranteed is a fair offer for a 32 y/o career journeyman backup who has currently thrown for 43 TD's in nine years.
It would be very interesting to see how many offers Geno would get on the open market if he continues to play at a top 10 level.
The 23' draft will hold plenty of choices for QB needy teams and most if not all will snag one before day 3. Most GM's looking to draft a franchise quarterback will not be willing to simultaneously pay a vet a significant contract. Geno's best fit would be more a playoff caliber team ready to win now, if he gets that payday you shake his hand and wish him the best of luck.
I don't think franchise tagging GS (even non exclusive) would be a good option considering the cap room we'll need to improve this team. I would love to see Geno continue on as our starter but this is about what situation is best for him. If he leaves maybe we can re-sign Lock to a cheap deal while our rookie QB develops. BTW, after the RW fiasco, I don't think many teams will be dumping wheel barrows of cash at a Seahawk QB's feet. I could be wrong though.

Geno Smith is not going to take a 72/32M contract is he continues playing like this. It's going to be in line with what all of the big time QB's are getting right now.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Seat

Under the context he somewhat maintains this level of play throughout the season...

If you draft his replacement early, and lowball him, he isn't signing with the Seahawks.

People must understand what tier 2 QBs make and realize that is the floor due to the cap going up.

- Matt Ryan $30M APY

- Carson Wentz $32M APY

- Jared Goff $33.5M APY

- Kirk Cousins $35M APY

If you're running the Seahawks and Geno's agent is arguing he is worth just as much as these guys and should be compensated accordingly.

What is your counter argument he isn't, and whytake way less and stay with the Seahawks, when several teams around the league will gladly pay him his market value?

The Hawks will extend Geno no doubt about that. Pete Carroll would never take a quarterback in the first round …it makes more sense to draft all defense with next year’s top 4 picks. We need guys on D that schematically fit what we’re trying to do. Solid, athletic D linemen and maybe a stud P5 linebacker. We already have a quarterback with the skill set needed to execute the offense. Dude has been throwing dots with precision and accuracy. He really did a superb job against the Saints especially stretching the field with Lockett. People need to get off his nutts regarding his abilities as an elite quarterback when in fact his arm talent has never been in question.

 

[CallMeADawg]

I still think there is a probability that Geno does not make it through the rest of the season healthy, elevating Lock to starter to end the year. As for signing Geno...2 yr max and heavily incentive laden. I think Geno is a different duck and wants to remain a Seahawk.
A draft QB will not start the first year no matter who it is.

I am trying to figure out what Geno has shown that leads you to believe he will not make it through the season healthy. Is there some objective data that supports this theory, or is this a needle in a voodoo doll?