Geno Isn't the Guy. Sad to Say (Main)

[LTH]

I agree totally... I think people are unfair to Geno. I mean, it's true that Geno needs to be better. But why do people think that players don't struggle? I mean this is the NFL everybody works through adversity. I mean name a QB that isn't working through some sort of adversity? It doesn't exist.

LTH

 

[Lagartixa]

Russ is $35m. They are probably going to cut him if I was a betting man though, in which case it's much more. They can be free of his contract this offseason and I expect them to take that out.

The Broncos are completely screwed by Wilson's contract, and I love that.

Despite Fade trying to put Wilson in the second tier of QBs and "clearly outperforming" Smith in what's been a relatively bad season for Smith so far and a good-for-him season for Wilson, Smith has actually been somewhere around the edge between the top third and the middle third, while Wilson has been somewhere around the edge between the middle third and the bottom third. That is, Smith has been anywhere from the eighth-best to 13th- or 14th-best QB this season, while Wilson has been around 18th-24th. That's indeed a huge improvement from Wilson over last season, when he was bottom-three in the league, and it's indeed negative movement for Smith, who was somewhere in the 5th-best-to-8th-best range last season, but Fade is exaggerating the movement for both. I'm still not sure if that's intentional. I actually suspect Fade genuinely believes much of what he writes when he writes it. I think he just overreacts to both positive and negative news and extrapolates.

Anyway, the Broncos have two choices after this season: cut Wilson and put $85M in dead money on their cap, basically forcing a complete rebuild, or keep Wilson on the roster past St. Patrick's Day of 2024 (the fifth day of the league year) and fully guarantee him another $37M on top of the gross overpay Wilson's contract already is. If they're smart, they'll cut him, and after he's been given over $40M per season to suck, I don't think he's going to be willing to take what teams will be willing to give him (an inexpensive "prove-it" contract) to either be a backup to a superior QB or an emergency replacement for an injured QB on a team like this year's Jets and Vikings.

 

[Lagartixa]

and yet Wilson has played much better than Geno on the year with a worst supporting cast. I said it when they signed Geno I wasn’t a fan because I was worried second half Geno is the real Geno and the first half was fluky. I got killed on here for that yet it’s played out exactly like that. But Geno is frustrating because I think he’s talented enough to prove me wrong and I hope he does!

In what sense has Wilson played better than Smith?

You and "Fallen R" love to cherry-pick passer rating, because Wilson's play looks good by passer rating, and that happens because passer rating ignores things like sacks and fumbles, and a ton of other things like game situation (score, down and distance, field position) and the quality of the defenses the QB has faced. Every stat has its flaws, but other one-number QB stats like QBR, DVOA, and DYAR do take those things into account, and that's why Wilson is really bad by those metrics, and why what those metrics say jibes with how Wilson's team is performing despite his empty passer rating.

Y'know the baseball player who hits for a batting average that looks good, but he's a slap hitter with almost no power and never takes a walk? People see a batting average of, say, .295 or .301 or something, and think "oh, that guy's not why our team is losing". Never mind that he's hitting .301/.312/.350 (BA/OBA/SLG) and is way below replacement level at his position. Yeah, that's Wilson with his high passer rating.

Smith has so far been worse than Wilson at passer rating. But Smith has been better in completion percentage (Smith all the way down to 13th now, Wilson all the way up to 17th), QBR (Smith 12th, Wilson 21st), DVOA (Smith 9th, Wilson 20th), DYAR (Smith 10th, Wilson 20th), and PFF grades (don't know their current rankings because I don't subscribe to PFF, but Smith was well ahead before this last weekend).

Wilson has been better than he himself was last season, but that's a really low bar. He was bottom-three in the league last season. This season, he's hovering around the top of the bottom third and the bottom of the middle third. Meanwhile, Smith is hanging around the bottom of the top third and the top of the middle third. Smith has been around the edges of the top ten (I'd say just outside, like 11th-13th or so) while Wilson has been around the edges of the bottom ten (I think just outside, around 20th-best in the league or so).

So the gap between Smith's performance and Wilson's performance has indeed narrowed since last year, when Smith was in the lower half of the top ten, while Wilson was in the bottom three, but Wilson hasn't been better than Smith this year.

 

[Recon_Hawk]

I'm 99% sure this video creator came to .net for research and found this thread. Seahawks are at 2:40 mark.

 

[strohmin]

and yet Wilson has played much better than Geno on the year with a worst supporting cast. I said it when they signed Geno I wasn’t a fan because I was worried second half Geno is the real Geno and the first half was fluky. I got killed on here for that yet it’s played out exactly like that. But Geno is frustrating because I think he’s talented enough to prove me wrong and I hope he does!

Wilson has stat padded better than Geno but hasnt played any better. He played some crappy teams and barely won. Wilson played better this past week but the Chiefs look over rated. Lets see how he does against the bills, browns amd lions in the upcoming schedule.

 

[Wheetie]

For me this is 41 pages of making my head spin, analysis and overanalysis trying to draw conclusions for the future based and the past. Can Geno do it or not? I say who cares...The Hawks are 5 and 2 so for me it's easy to scrub the past and look forward and hope for the best. All it takes is 1 game for Geno to really ball out and the whole narrative changes from Geno's not the guy to Geno is the guy, at least for this year anyways. As for looking past this year, again who cares, one season at a time. As someone once told me, "find contentment in the present, if you're always chasing contentment by looking for something better, you'll never find it". I personally am going to enjoy this team and hope for the best from Geno this week and the following weeks after and see where it gets me this season. That is all.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I don't buy that one bit. Denver supposedly had all the talent already in place and just needed a QB. Absolutely zero chance Wilson's contract had any significant impact on Denver's roster since he

He is cut. Will go to another team at a cheaper price than Geno's current contract and outperform him like he is doing now.

That's the rub. Geno needs to be cut, too. He is not worth the money, either.

2 Wrong's don't make a right.

If he's not worth the money, then they'll restructure him again this off season.

But so far he's playing like a top 10 QB in the NFC, so not sure how that equates to your subjective opinion on what a top 10 conference QB is "worth."

Going rate of top 10 QB's is what he'll be making, so my guess is if we get slightly above mid Geno the rest of the season, he probably will see his big contract jump next year.

Not sure what we're arguing about anyway. The Russ vs Geno debate is over, Russ lost...........and the ONLY reason this Hawks team is trending upwards is due to the insane amount of picks and cap space relief from him being gone.

 

[Fade]

In what sense has Wilson played better than Smith?

You and "Fallen R" love to cherry-pick passer rating, because Wilson's play looks good by passer rating, and that happens because passer rating ignores things like sacks and fumbles, and a ton of other things like game situation (score, down and distance, field position) and the quality of the defenses the QB has faced. Every stat has its flaws, but other one-number QB stats like QBR, DVOA, and DYAR do take those things into account, and that's why Wilson is really bad by those metrics, and why what those metrics say jibes with how Wilson's team is performing despite his empty passer rating.

Y'know the baseball player who hits for a batting average that looks good, but he's a slap hitter with almost no power and never takes a walk? People see a batting average of, say, .295 or .301 or something, and think "oh, that guy's not why our team is losing". Never mind that he's hitting .301/.312/.350 (BA/OBA/SLG) and is way below replacement level at his position. Yeah, that's Wilson with his high passer rating.

Smith has so far been worse than Wilson at passer rating. But Smith has been better in completion percentage (Smith all the way down to 13th now, Wilson all the way up to 17th), QBR (Smith 12th, Wilson 21st), DVOA (Smith 9th, Wilson 20th), DYAR (Smith 10th, Wilson 20th), and PFF grades (don't know their current rankings because I don't subscribe to PFF, but Smith was well ahead before this last weekend).

Wilson has been better than he himself was last season, but that's a really low bar. He was bottom-three in the league last season. This season, he's hovering around the top of the bottom third and the bottom of the middle third. Meanwhile, Smith is hanging around the bottom of the top third and the top of the middle third. Smith has been around the edges of the top ten (I'd say just outside, like 11th-13th or so) while Wilson has been around the edges of the bottom ten (I think just outside, around 20th-best in the league or so).

So the gap between Smith's performance and Wilson's performance has indeed narrowed since last year, when Smith was in the lower half of the top ten, while Wilson was in the bottom three, but Wilson hasn't been better than Smith this year.

Smith needs to play better. Wilson has double the production with a lesser team around him, and throws 50% fewer interceptions.

Geno Smith got outplayed by PJ Walker for 3 quarters.

 

[Optimus25]

I agree totally... I think people are unfair to Geno. I mean, it's true that Geno needs to be better. But why do people think that players don't struggle? I mean this is the NFL everybody works through adversity. I mean name a QB that isn't working through some sort of adversity? It doesn't exist.

LTH

It's not "adversity". it's throwing interceptions at completely, utterly idiotic times. or just turnovers in general. take for instance, last year, on the road, wild card game, tied 17-17, 3rd and infinity, deep in the 9ers territory. Geno can't feel the pressure, can't just get down and take the 3 points, instead gets stripped and a turnover and the game turns on a dime.

against the Cards, deep in their territory, when 3 points would almost seal the game, throws an idiotic pick intended for Bobo. We spend like what? the next quarter of football just precariously ahead by 7 against a feisty division rival. It's too close for comfort and it's not winning football.

So it's not 'working through adversity'. it's more like 'does this guy even remotely understand situational football?' Let alone let's not forget, in our close win this week, even the announcers couldn't understand why Geno threw a pass, with the game on the line, into coverage in the end zone, where a pick ends the game.

even the announcers said WTF Geno. in plainspeak.

 

[SonicHawk]

PJ Walker was trash the whole game and didn't outplay anyone.

 

[Fade]

If he's not worth the money, then they'll restructure him again this off season.

But so far he's playing like a top 10 QB in the NFC, so not sure how that equates to your subjective opinion on what a top 10 conference QB is "worth."

Going rate of top 10 QB's is what he'll be making, so my guess is if we get slightly above mid Geno the rest of the season, he probably will see his big contract jump next year.

Not sure what we're arguing about anyway. The Russ vs Geno debate is over, Russ lost...........and the ONLY reason this Hawks team is trending upwards is due to the insane amount of picks and cap space relief from him being gone.

I don't think you know what that means. Do you mean pay cut?

Restructure would put them on the hook for even more money down the line.

It's not a debate, just pointing out how bad Geno has played for going on for nearly a season. And they are going to need some cap relief by doing something with Geno after this season as well.

His current contract was structred by the Seahawks in a way, that they can easily get out of it, if he doesn't perform this year. So far he hasn't, so…

 

[Ozzy]

Smith needs to play better. Wilson has double the production with a lesser team around him, and throws 50% fewer interceptions.

Geno Smith got outplayed by PJ Walker for 3 quarters.

By almost any metric you can come up with Wilson has been better than Geno this year with a worst cast. I don't even think that is debatable. Last year it was the oppisite and Geno was better. Really hoping Geno does that again the rest of the way

 

[renofox]

Geno has highs where he is Top-3.

Geno has lows where he is Bottom-3.

It's 100% based on his decision making.

If he can get his head straight, he can take the Seahawks to a Bowl.

I'm hopeful, but not confident.

 

[Fade]

PJ Walker was trash the whole game and didn't outplay anyone.

PJ Walker and the Browns moved up and down the field all game. While Geno Struggled for 3 quarters.

.NET disagrees with you.
https://www.seahawks.net/threads/why-does-pj-walker-look-better-than-geno-smith.191259/

 

[Fade]

Geno has highs where he is Top-3.

Geno has lows where he is Bottom-3.

It's 100% based on his decision making.

If he can get his head straight, he can take the Seahawks to a Bowl.

I'm hopeful, but not confident.

Correct.

He has the the physical arm talent to be a top 10 QB.

But unfortunately, he's a bad decision maker, and can't process fast enough which leads to those bad decisions.

 

[Ozzy]

Geno has highs where he is Top-3.

Geno has lows where he is Bottom-3.

It's 100% based on his decision making.

If he can get his head straight, he can take the Seahawks to a Bowl.

I'm hopeful, but not confident.

That's where I'm at and I think its why people can feel so strongly about him one way or the other because he has enough moments where he's both. If you want to like Geno its easy to find examples where he was really, really good. If you don't like Geno you can find many moments to prove that as well. I think that's why he's so polarizing.

 

[renofox]

Correct.

He has the the physical arm talent to be a top 10 QB.

But unfortunately, he's a bad decision maker, and can't process fast enough which leads to those bad decisions.

But there is a chance he can get his head straight. A lot of the disagreement probably comes from the difference in perceived likelihood of that actually happening.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I don't think you know what that means. Do you mean pay cut?

Restructure would put them on the hook for even more money down the line.

It's not a debate, just pointing out how bad Geno has played for going on for nearly a season. And they are going to need some cap relief by doing something with Geno after this season as well.

His current contract was structred by the Seahawks in a way, that they can easily get out of it, if he doesn't perform this year. So far he hasn't, so…

Then I guess we disagree on "Geno's playing bad."

He's not playing great, but great enough to make enough plays to have helped his team go 5-2, and last year great enough to help his very young turned over roster to make the playoffs.

Is that worth a 31M cap hit next year? You obviously think no, but I'm saying I don't think Pete, John and the organization agree with you. I think if Geno plays this well the rest of the season resulting in another playoff berth then they will keep him with the larger salary and cap hit.

Especially if the D continues to get better, of which they're already very good.

 

[Fade]

By almost any metric you can come up with Wilson has been better than Geno this year with a worst cast. I don't even think that is debatable. Last year it was the oppisite and Geno was better. Really hoping Geno does that again the rest of the way

They really get in a tizzy, if you point this out though, don't they.

 

[Fade]

Then I guess we disagree on "Geno's playing bad."

He's not playing great, but great enough to make enough plays to have helped his team go 5-2, and last year great enough to help his very young turned over roster to make the playoffs.

Is that worth a 31M cap hit next year? You obviously think no, but I'm saying I don't think Pete, John and the organization agree with you. I think if Geno plays this well the rest of the season resulting in another playoff berth then they will keep him with the larger salary and cap hit.

Especially if the D continues to get better, of which they're already very good.

He's playing bad.

It's gonna be at least $33M as he has a $2M incentive if the team wins 9 games. That is more than Wilson ever counted against the Seahawks cap.

The D will have to be broken up if they keep Geno. They are capped out already in 2024.

Brooks, Wagner, Leo Williams are all upcoming Free Agents. Then the guys on offense, too.

They are going to have to cut some guys. Geno is the most likely candidate at this juncure. The Seahawks structured his contract in a way, to quickly move on from him if he is not the guy.

Geno must play better if he wants to be here in 2024.