Geno Isn't the Guy. Sad to Say (Main)

[SoulfishHawk]

They really get in a tizzy, if you point this out though, don't they.

oh boy, I bet that hurts a lot people's feels

butthurt coming in 3.....2.....1........

I kid..........

 

[knownone]

By almost any metric you can come up with Wilson has been better than Geno this year with a worst cast. I don't even think that is debatable. Last year it was the oppisite and Geno was better. Really hoping Geno does that again the rest of the way

That's not even remotely true. Sure, Wilson has more TDs fewer INTs, and a higher traditional rating. However, look at more advanced metrics and you'll notice Wilson has a success rate of 42% (23rd in the league). In other words, he's one of the least efficient QBs when down and distance are taken into context. Meanwhile, Geno's ranked 4th at 52%. That's why Geno's grades are higher in more advanced metrics like QBR, PFF, and several others.

 

[Fade]

But there is a chance he can get his head straight. A lot of the disagreement probably comes from the difference in perceived likelihood of that actually happening.

It's been too large of a sample size at this point. Guys have their deficiencies. Teams get film, and it's over.

Geno has lived off of interception luck.

He has an incredible arm, very accurate, plus mobility, but is also 1st in bad throw % going back to last year, he throws the ball to the other team at a higher rate than any other QB in the NFL. He's just had incredible interception luck. It is not sustainable.

Teams are loading the box daring him to throw. The opponents want the ball in Geno's hands.

They have to run the ball, and utilize play action more. Geno is a really good playaction QB.

 

[Fade]

That's not even remotely true. Sure, Wilson has more TDs fewer INTs, and a higher traditional rating. However, look at more advanced metrics and you'll notice Wilson has a success rate of 42% (23rd in the league). In other words, he's one of the least efficient QBs when down and distance are taken into context. Meanwhile, Geno's ranked 4th at 52%. That's why Geno's grades are higher in more advanced metrics like QBR, PFF, and several others.

QBR is garbage.
PFF is garbage as it pertains to rating players in the passing game. It's more a grade of offensive systems than it is players.

Turnover worthy plays, and how guys are doing in the trenches is all PFF is good for.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Huge game Sunday. Enough of the comparisons. It's just a waste of time. Dude is gone, let....it.....go.....

 

[renofox]

It's been too large of a sample size at this point. Guys have their deficiencies. Teams get film, and it's over.

Geno has lived off of interception luck.

He has an incredible arm, very accurate, plus mobility, but is also 1st in bad throw % going back to last year, he throws the ball to the other team at a higher rate than any other QB in the NFL. He's just had incredible interception luck. It is not sustainable.

Teams are loading the box daring him to throw. The opponents want the ball in Geno's hands.

They have to run the ball, and utilize play action more. Geno is a really good playaction QB.

So I guess you're in the <1% chance camp. That's fair.

I'm more in the 10-15% chance camp. When I'm feeling irrationally hopeful I sometimes stray into to 40% range.

 

[hoxrox]

They really get in a tizzy, if you point this out though, don't they.

You can cherry pick passing stats to make any QB look good. These specific ones you posted are mostly meaningless.

Touchdown completion %. Justin Fields is #2. This stat is meaningless.

Tied for 1st in 4th quarter comebacks.. because he sucked in the other 3 quarters? What's the Broncos record right now?

4th in QB rating: really not that impressive as it doesn't take other factors into account.

2nd in TD/Int ratio: Ok, that's pretty good.

1st in Pass TD attempts: this stat is mostly meaningless.

Russ still has LESS total passing yards than Geno, with MORE passing attempts.

His completion percentage is LOWER than Geno.

His QBR is LOWER than Geno.

I'm not even saying Geno is playing that well this season. But let's not pretend like Russ is even close to living up to his contract right now.

 

[Lagartixa]

By almost any metric you can come up with Wilson has been better than Geno this year with a worst cast. I don't even think that is debatable. Last year it was the oppisite and Geno was better. Really hoping Geno does that again the rest of the way

Almost any metric?

Not completion percentage. Smith is all the way down to 13th in the league, and Wilson's all the way up to 17th, but Smith is still better. Not QBR. Smith's down to 12th, Wilson's at 21st in the league. Not DVOA (a measure of per-snap effectiveness). Smith's 9th, Wilson 20th. Not DYAR (a measure of total value produced in the season). Smith's 10th, Wilson's 20th. Not PFF's scout grades. I don't know the current ranks, because I don't subscribe, but Smith was way ahead as of last week.

Wilson has been less bad than last year, but he's still about the 20th-best QB in the league.
Sure, 20th-best is a huge improvement from 30th-best, which is where he was last season, but it's still pretty bad, especially for a QB with his contract.
Smith hasn't been as good as last year, but he's still hanging around the edge of the top ten. I'd put him just outside, around 11th-13th or so. That's definitely a step down from somewhere in the 5th-to-8th-best range, which is where he was last year.
The upward movement for Wilson is there, and the downward movement for Smith is real.
But even playing behind a badly injured offensive line, Smith has still been better.
And let's be honest. Outside the special environment Pete Carroll created for Wilson, "better than Wilson" is a pretty low bar. It's about the same as "outside the bottom third of starting QBs."

Ask yourself this: how many teams in the league would want Wilson on his current contract? Not even his own team does!
Now, how many teams in the league would want Smith on his current contract? Several.

 

[knownone]

QBR is garbage.
PFF is garbage as it pertains to rating players in the passing game. It's more a grade of offensive systems than it is players.

Turnover worthy plays, and how guys are doing in the trenches is all PFF is good for.

So, everything that contradicts your opinion is garbage—got it.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

While I give the guy crap, Geno has played behind like 723 different O-Line combos this year. That's a lot to ask of any QB.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

He's playing bad.

It's gonna be at least $33M as he has a $2M incentive if the team wins 9 games. That is more than Wilson ever counted against the Seahawks cap.

The D will have to be broken up if they keep Geno. They are capped out already in 2024.

Brooks, Wagner, Leo Williams are all upcoming Free Agents. Then the guys on offense, too.

They are going to have to cut some guys. Geno is the most likely candidate at this juncure. The Seahawks structured his contract in a way, to quickly move on from him if he is not the guy.

Geno must play better if he wants to be here in 2024.

Adams is gone, probably Diggs and Dissly too

He's playing bad.

It's gonna be at least $33M as he has a $2M incentive if the team wins 9 games. That is more than Wilson ever counted against the Seahawks cap.

The D will have to be broken up if they keep Geno. They are capped out already in 2024.

Brooks, Wagner, Leo Williams are all upcoming Free Agents. Then the guys on offense, too.

They are going to have to cut some guys. Geno is the most likely candidate at this juncure. The Seahawks structured his contract in a way, to quickly move on from him if he is not the guy.

Geno must play better if he wants to be here in 2024.

Diggs and Adams are gone, probably Dissly too. Restructuring DK and Lockett.

Plenty of cap to afford Geno if they don't want to cut him and start over at QB.

It's not a foregone conclusion that he needs to play better to keep in 2024.

Pete and John love and covet continuity at the QB position. To jump into the loser organizational mentality of mediocre revolving door of one year retreatds at QB or taking another 2-3 years with a rookie project QB is not likely for a 75 year old coach and veteran GM.

 

[Fade]

You can cherry pick passing stats to make any QB look good. These specific ones you posted are mostly meaningless.

Touchdown completion %. Justin Fields is #2. This stat is meaningless.

Tied for 1st in 4th quarter comebacks.. because he sucked in the other 3 quarters? What's the Broncos record right now?

4th in QB rating: really not that impressive as it doesn't take other factors into account.

2nd in TD/Int ratio: Ok, that's pretty good.

1st in Pass TD attempts: this stat is mostly meaningless.

Russ still has LESS total passing yards than Geno, with MORE passing attempts.

His completion percentage is LOWER than Geno.

His QBR is LOWER than Geno.

I'm not even saying Geno is playing that well this season. But let's not pretend like Russ is even close to living up to his contract right now.

I'm not.

You guys are making that leap. He's just better than Geno Smith.

QBR is an offensive team stat. Not a QB stat, with EPA as it's claimed main component, with no actual formula available. Swap teams and Geno would get benched, with a lesser supporting cast, and his league leading bad throw %.

Passing yards are empty calories. And are a product of game flow and system. Brock Purdy threw for a career high in passing yards last game. It was also his worst game as a 49er.

Passing TDs... meaningless? ahahhahahahahah

I sure wish Geno threw those, instead of dropped pick 6's.

 

[Fade]

Adams is gone, probably Diggs and Dissly too


Diggs and Adams are gone, probably Dissly too. Restructuring DK and Lockett.

Plenty of cap to afford Geno if they don't want to cut him and start over at QB.

It's not a foregone conclusion that he needs to play better to keep in 2024.

Pete and John love and covet continuity at the QB position. To jump into the loser organizational mentality of mediocre revolving door of one year retreatds at QB or taking another 2-3 years with a rookie project QB is not likely for a 75 year old coach and veteran GM.

-They already restructured Lockett this year. That isn't happening.

-D.K. would need to be extended to have a restructure be worth it. (Tack on more years to spread the money out.) He just signed his deal 2 years ago, so that sound unlikely.

You're proposing the Seahawks break up their league best secondary, to keep a turnover machine at QB? Not a good plan.

Instead I propose: Get a cheaper bridge + draft a QB, while keeping the defense intact.

 

[hoxrox]

Passing TDs... meaningless? ahahhahahahahah

Passing TD attempts. It's mostly meaningless.

 

[warden]

While I give the guy crap, Geno has played behind like 723 different O-Line combos this year. That's a lot to ask of any QB.

Don’t destroy their hate with facts

 

[knownone]

QBR is an offensive team stat. Not a QB stat, with EPA as it's claimed main component, with no actual formula available. Swap teams and Geno would get benched, with a lesser supporting cast, and his league leading bad throw %.

You can't possibly be serious.

First) We have the formula for RawQBR, so we know exactly what it measures and how it functions. Here, Raw simply means that it's unadjusted. ESPN's QBR adjusts for the strength of the defense and game situation. For example, Seattle played the #1 pass defense in EPA, so Geno's QBR is adjusted to account for that.

Here's the RawQBR formula: RawQBR=g(AdjustedEPA/ActionPlays). The function notation is only for scaling, so we know exactly what's being measured.

Second) QBR uses adjusted EPA, which is, by definition, a QB stat, as it accounts for the pass type and depth of pass and whether the QB is under pressure.

Third) Do you have a source for "bad throw %"? Geno's not leading the league in TWP%.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Geno Smith's Last 12 Games

65.68%
2758
6.43 AY/A
17 TDs
11 INTs
87.9 Passer Rating

172 yards rushing w/4.78 avg. 0 TDs

(Superior Unit Around Him)


"Washed Up" Wilson's Last 12 Games

64.53%
2579
7.29 AY/A
24 TDs
10 INTs
96.6 Passer Rating

329 yards rushing w/6.53 avg. 2 TDs

(Inferior Unit Around Him)


"GOAT" Mahomes Last 12 Games

69.84% (Andy Reed Screen Game)
3348 (Andy Reed Screen Game)
7.72 AY/A
23 TDs
9 INTs
100.8 Passer Rating

312 yards rushing w/6.24 avg. 2 TDs

(One of the Best O-Lines, HoF TE, Lacking at WR)

Fade. Facts have no place here. Come on, now.

 

[Ozzy]

Almost any metric?

Not completion percentage. Smith is all the way down to 13th in the league, and Wilson's all the way up to 17th, but Smith is still better. Not QBR. Smith's down to 12th, Wilson's at 21st in the league. Not DVOA (a measure of per-snap effectiveness). Smith's 9th, Wilson 20th. Not DYAR (a measure of total value produced in the season). Smith's 10th, Wilson's 20th. Not PFF's scout grades. I don't know the current ranks, because I don't subscribe, but Smith was way ahead as of last week.

Wilson has been less bad than last year, but he's still about the 20th-best QB in the league.
Sure, 20th-best is a huge improvement from 30th-best, which is where he was last season, but it's still pretty bad, especially for a QB with his contract.
Smith hasn't been as good as last year, but he's still hanging around the edge of the top ten. I'd put him just outside, around 11th-13th or so. That's definitely a step down from somewhere in the 5th-to-8th-best range, which is where he was last year.
The upward movement for Wilson is there, and the downward movement for Smith is real.
But even playing behind a badly injured offensive line, Smith has still been better.
And let's be honest. Outside the special environment Pete Carroll created for Wilson, "better than Wilson" is a pretty low bar. It's about the same as "outside the bottom third of starting QBs."

Ask yourself this: how many teams in the league would want Wilson on his current contract? Not even his own team does!
Now, how many teams in the league would want Smith on his current contract? Several.

I hate QBR but fair point you found a couple of metrics that favor smith. I’d still take half as many picks, more touchdowns and a higher passer rating with a bad supporting cast.

I don’t think several teams would be paying Geno what he’s making now considering his last stretch dating back to the middle of last year. But neither of us know that for sure so we’re all guessing. I feel pretty confident Wilson has been better but that’s ok. Maybe Smith goes on a tear and Wilson crumbles. I hope Geno fixes his turnover issue (he should’ve had 4 picks this week) because if he does he will have a monster year.

 

[Fade]

Fade said:
Geno Smith's Last 12 Games

65.68%
2758
6.43 AY/A
17 TDs
11 INTs
87.9 Passer Rating

172 yards rushing w/4.78 avg. 0 TDs

(Superior Unit Around Him)


"Washed Up" Wilson's Last 12 Games

64.53%
2579
7.29 AY/A
24 TDs
10 INTs
96.6 Passer Rating

329 yards rushing w/6.53 avg. 2 TDs

(Inferior Unit Around Him)


"GOAT" Mahomes Last 12 Games

69.84% (Andy Reed Screen Game)
3348 (Andy Reed Screen Game)
7.72 AY/A
23 TDs
9 INTs
100.8 Passer Rating

312 yards rushing w/6.24 avg. 2 TDs

(One of the Best O-Lines, HoF TE, Lacking at WR)

Fade. Facts have no place here. Come on, now.

Dude. They're flipping out. It's hilarious.

 

[CouchLogic]

While I give the guy crap, Geno has played behind like 723 different O-Line combos this year. That's a lot to ask of any QB.

I couldn't imagine having to knpw the tendencies of that many dudes, damn. I'm sure with the same Five dudes all the time, you can remember the little things they do in game. (This next statement goes for all teams) Having a constant rotation is adding that much more to remember and not get crossed wires about who-is-who, double damn. Oh yeah, you have to do this in the back of your mind because you're QBing an NFL team. I'd have a meltdown.

TLDR; Being the QB %$##ing blows, lol.