Geno Is a Bridge, Nothing More

[rigelian]

It worked for KC. The hit rate for qb's after the top half of the 1st is abysmal. We got extremely lucky with Russ, although I do agree that JS knew what he was doing there. You can count the number of qb's drafted in the 3rd that have succeeded on one hand with fingers left over. If JS can pull that kind of magic in the later rounds again, great. But I wouldn't bank on it.

Do you want me to go down list of the teams it didn't work for? It's like the economist that has a can a beans on an island without a can opener. The solution? Assume a can opener.

I'm your case...assume a Patrick Mahomes.

 

[Maelstrom787]

It seems pretty clear that the bust rates for first round QBs is pretty extraordinary. Here are some numbers...since 2011 there have been 38 QBs picked in the first round, the collective record is 1034-1035-7. Sounds like purgatory to me. (Business Insider - If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace yourself). Also first round picks from 2010 to 2017, only 31 percent signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

I'm not saying give up on picking QBs, I'm saying that it is a risky proposition, especially if your team suffers from fundamental flaws like a bad OL.

Oh and I'll tell you what, just to show I wasn't anti-QB draft picks, if Anthony Richardson was available in the last draft I would have definitely pushed for him.

To expand upon this statistic, the reason for this isn't that these players are bad on the whole.

The reason is that quarterbacks are a product of their environment, and none succeed alone.

Dysfunctional teams with losing cultures get themselves into a spot where they can select a premier talent. They proceed to ruin them. Rinse and repeat.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider built the opposite here, which is why the trash of dysfunctional organizations became real players for us. Between Russell being available in the third and then becoming Russell, TJack doing a decent job with no talent around him and a torn pectoral, Geno's redemption, and Lock's clutch W - we see that the individual talent isn't the only factor. All of those dudes atop the draft are generally talented. What matters most is how you build them up from there.

John knows this. He comes from Green Bay, man. They're the poster-child for not rushing the next guy up, and ain't it weird how it keeps on working for them for what'll be MULTIPLE GENERATIONS if Love continues to pan out?

There's a right way to do this. Emulating the absolute shitter organizations who keep ruining expensive, prized prospects like clockwork isn't one of 'em, unlike what some like to suggest.

 

[rigelian]

To expand upon this statistic, the reason for this isn't that these players are bad on the whole.

The reason is that quarterbacks are a product of their environment, and none succeed alone.

Dysfunctional teams with losing cultures get themselves into a spot where they can select a premier talent. They proceed to ruin them. Rinse and repeat.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider built the opposite here, which is why the trash of dysfunctional organizations became real players for us.

John knows this. He comes from Green Bay, man. They're the poster-child for not rushing the next guy up, and ain't it weird how it keeps on working for them for what'll be MULTIPLE GENERATIONS if Love continues to pan out?

I agree quite a bit with what you post, but there is a however and some caveats. Pete had an ability to get the most out of some difficult dudes and a different approach to defensive backs. The legion of boom was unique. It caught offenses off guard and dominated. We picked defensive backs that looked different, played with a different technique and it took offensive adjustments and NFL rule changes by the league to slow it down.

Also, I have a similar faith with John. He's not likely to throw a rookie QB to the wolves with an offense with a weak OL, and a consistent reliable running game. It's why I don't think we will gamble and trade for a higher position to pick a QB. It's why I think Geno is the best option now.

 

[bigcc]

Here are the quarterback draft picks in the top ten picks from the NFL Draft 2015 to 2023:

2023
* Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (1st, 1) Incomplete
* C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (1st, 2) Hit
* Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1st, 4) Incomplete


2022
* Malik Willis, Pittsburgh Steelers (1st, 1) M
* Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (1st, 2) M
* Sam Howell, Washington M Commanders (1st, 7)

2021
* Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (1st, 1) H
* Zach Wilson, New York Jets (1st, 2) M
* Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (1st, 3) M
* Mac Jones, New England Patriots (1st, 6) M

2020
* Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (1st, 2) Hit
* Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (1st, 5) Hit
* Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (1st, 6) Hit

2019
* Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (1st, 1) ?
* Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins (1st, 2) M
* Daniel Jones, New York Giants (1st, 3) M

2018
* Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (1st, 1) M
* Sam Darnold, New York Jets (1st, 2) M
* Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (1st, 3) H

2017
* Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (1st, 2) M
* Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (1st, 10) H

2016
* Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (1st, 1) M
* Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (1st, 2) M


2015
* Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st, 1) M
* Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (1st, 2) M

My assessment of their success on their original teams.
M = Missed
I = Incomplete
H = Hit

My question is which of these guys would you call a QBotf? What would be your hit rate?

My brother in christ, I really hope you don't handle the finances at home

 

[rigelian]

My brother in christ, I really hope you don't handle the finances at home

And yet you've failed to offer a reasoned rebuttal.

 

[bigcc]

And yet you've failed to offer a reasoned rebuttal.

Reasoned?

You started off well

2023
* Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (1st, 1) Incomplete
* C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (1st, 2) Hit
* Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1st, 4) Incomplete

I agree.....

But then


2022
* Malik Willis, Pittsburgh Steelers (1st, 1) M
* Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (1st, 2) M
* Sam Howell, Washington M Commanders (1st, 7)

Malik Willis went in the late 3.86 to the TITANS
Ridder went 3.74 (before malik)
Corral went 3.94
Zappe 4.137
FINALLY Howell 5.144
Also Pickett 1.20

You're getting teams, rounds, picks, nearly everything wrong immediately.


2021
* Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (1st, 1) H
* Zach Wilson, New York Jets (1st, 2) M
* Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (1st, 3) M
* Mac Jones, New England Patriots (1st, 6) M

Trey lance went 3rd, not fields who went 11, but he'd still be above jones who went 15

I mean i can keep going but there's no rhyme nor reason to those listings

 

[rigelian]

list was AI generated. My mistake was assuming it got it correct.

 

[bigcc]

list was AI generated. My mistake was assuming it got it correct.

That makes sense lol, it started off on point which confused me, wonder what it pulled the rest from

 

[BlueTalon]

list was AI generated. My mistake was assuming it got it correct.

Better to learn from that mistake on a message board, and not in court or someplace important.

 

[rigelian]

Never in a court. I would never use a shortcut. I've tried a few cases.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

The other thing is are the quarterbacks system qbs, or are they adaptable to conditions? That would also when they are taken in the draft. Also if the team looking for a stop gap or a system player. Are all the other ducks in a row before the draft?

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

We aren’t ready to not have a bridge, and I have no problem with Geno being it.

 

[DirectMessage]

The other thing is are the quarterbacks system qbs, or are they adaptable to conditions? That would also when they are taken in the draft. Also if the team looking for a stop gap or a system player. Are all the other ducks in a row before the draft?

Hasn't the NFL turned into the college game with with system QB's? Outside of Josh Allen and Lamar Smith is there any QB in the league truly unique? You can literally just draft the best guy to run your system and be highly successful in the NFL. I know people are going to call me dumb. . I think Shanahan, McVay, Reid could draft the next guy up and with their system still continue to roll on the offense. Hopefully the Seahawks don't spend to much draft capital trading up, tbh.

 

[DarkVictory23]

list was AI generated. My mistake was assuming it got it correct.

Ok, so let's take a look with a non-AI list. (Note: I am assuming ALL QBs from 2023 top 10 are too early to call because, well... one season, even one as good as Stroud had, isn't enough.)

So...

2022:
No QBs drafted Top 10

2021:
(1) Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars - Hit
(2) Zach Wilson - Jets - Miss
(3) Trey Lance - 49ers (via trade) - Miss

2020:
(1) Joe Burrow - Bengals - Hit
(5) Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins - Hit

2019:
(1) Kyler Murray - Cardinals - Mixed
(6) Daniel Jones - Giants - Miss

2018:
(1) Baker Mayfield - Browns - Miss
(3) Sam Darnold - Jets (via trade) - Miss
(7) Josh Allen - Buffalo (via trade) - Hit
(10) Josh Rosen - Cardinals (via trade) - Miss

2017:
(2) Mitch Trubisky - Bears - Miss
(10) Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (via trade) - Hit

2016:
(1) Jared Goff - Rams (via trade) - Hit
(2) Carson Wentz - Eagles (via trade) - Miss

2015:
(1) Jameis Winston - Buccaneers - Miss
(2) Marcus Mariota - Titans - Miss

2014:
(3) Blake Bortles - Jaguars - Miss

2013:
No QBs drafted Top 10

-

So, what are my take aways from this? My first thought is, drafting in the top 10 doesn't seem like a magic ticket to getting a great QB. Way more misses than hits. And the more concerning thing is, if you look into this, a number of the 'hits' were guys who did not go to top 10 drafting teams.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff all ended up on teams that traded INTO the top 10. That's half of the hits right there. If the idea is to suck so you can draft a guy who's going to go in the top 10, odds are you are going to suck so bad that you'll kill that dude's career anyway.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Ok, so let's take a look with a non-AI list. (Note: I am assuming ALL QBs from 2023 top 10 are too early to call because, well... one season, even one as good as Stroud had, isn't enough.)

So...

2022:
No QBs drafted Top 10

2021:
(1) Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars - Hit
(2) Zach Wilson - Jets - Miss
(3) Trey Lance - 49ers (via trade) - Miss

2020:
(1) Joe Burrow - Bengals - Hit
(5) Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins - Hit

2019:
(1) Kyler Murray - Cardinals - Mixed
(6) Daniel Jones - Giants - Miss

2018:
(1) Baker Mayfield - Browns - Miss
(3) Sam Darnold - Jets (via trade) - Miss
(7) Josh Allen - Buffalo (via trade) - Hit
(10) Josh Rosen - Cardinals (via trade) - Miss

2017:
(2) Mitch Trubisky - Bears - Miss
(10) Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (via trade) - Hit

2016:
(1) Jared Goff - Rams (via trade) - Hit
(2) Carson Wentz - Eagles (via trade) - Miss

2015:
(1) Jameis Winston - Buccaneers - Miss
(2) Marcus Mariota - Titans - Miss

2014:
(3) Blake Bortles - Jaguars - Miss

2013:
No QBs drafted Top 10

-

So, what are my take aways from this? My first thought is, drafting in the top 10 doesn't seem like a magic ticket to getting a great QB. Way more misses than hits. And the more concerning thing is, if you look into this, a number of the 'hits' were guys who did not go to top 10 drafting teams.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff all ended up on teams that traded INTO the top 10. That's half of the hits right there. If the idea is to suck so you can draft a guy who's going to go in the top 10, odds are you are going to suck so bad that you'll kill that dude's career anyway.

Exactly this. And them look at Trey Lance.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Bad Takes.............nothing more.

Fire Pete!!
Rams are Tanking it, BOOK IT!!!

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Bad Takes.............nothing more.

Fire Pete!!
Rams are Tanking it, BOOK IT!!!

They did but the Rams have an elite quarterback and DT you disagree? And got the DT because they were shit and traded away years of draft capital for Stafford and in return they won a Superbowl and pretty much ready to be a serious contender again for at least the nrext 3-5 years? And let's just ignore Purdy and the 49ers.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I'm feeling much better about Penix each day I know Mahomes is next level but his OL is top tier and Penix with Kansas City's OL would give us a real chance to beat the 49ers and Rams and see how we fare against Pat and Travis. I'm a Swiftie but my team are the Seahawks

 

[BlueTalon]

Never in a court. I would never use a shortcut. I've tried a few cases.

I haven't, but I've heard of at least once instance where lawyers decided to try. It didn't turn out well.

 

[chrispy]

Every QB is a bridge QB. They're QB until they're not...until the team gets someone better.

JS might get who he wants...he might not too. I guarantee he won't get the guy most people on this board wants. It's such a an advantage to have a good QB during a rebuild.