How many actual games were they in those situations? And what were their records? There's no mention of how much these teams are trailing by on average. Not every trailing situation requires the same strategy and urgency. Why was four minutes chosen? Are teams down two scores with five minutes to go like, "eh we got plenty of time"?
Saying "minimum 20 games" and then using a bunch of volume stats makes it seem like there's an agenda.
I'd say spamming this with a bunch of 'whatabouts' and then inaccurately referring to the stats I posted as a 'bunch of volume stats' (most of those stats are NOT volume stats, so I guess 2 out of 5 counts as 'a bunch'?) makes it seem like there's an agenda, but to try and engage this in good faith...
These stats come from Pro-Football-Reference. Their passing splits allows you to pick between trailing with 2 minutes left or 4 minutes left because the concepts of 4-minute offense and 2-minute offense are longstanding football concepts, not because of some conspiracy.
In fact, I picked 4-minute instead of 2-minute specifically because I was trying to capture gameplay that would be late game, when your team is desperate to score, but not just 2-minute drill only. You can also look at 4th quarter splits (no score differential), trailing (at any point in the game) or 2-minute drill trailing.
Geno ranks significantly higher in all 3 of those phases. When it's late game, Geno's been better. When his team is trailing, Geno's been better. When it's late game AND his team is trailing, Geno's been much better. I picked 4-minutes left while trailing because it best represented the point, but I could have picked any of these others and gotten similar results.
I picked minimum of 20 games for 2 reasons:
First, to try and get the number of QBs included to approximately 32, which I think helps people understand these rankings better. Being 19th out of 60ish is hard to parse. We are trying to rate Geno and Carr as two starting QBs, so let's put them in a ranking that approximates that.
Second, I was trying to remove QBs with a season or less of gameplay who may have only been in one or two of these situations. This helps
Carr more than Geno. Geno's sitting at 3rd in passer rating. If I lower the required number of games down to like 9--a half season--Geno's still going to be top 10. But Derek Carr gets dropped to the 50's. Do we really care, in this comparison, that CJ Beathard has a better passer rating in this situation than Derek Carr? No.
In terms of the number of games they were in these situations, team records, average score differential, Pro-Football-Reference doesn't make it easy to link those 2 things, but to the best I can tell (without diving through each individual game), the Seahawks went 5-6 with Geno in those situations while down by an average of about 8.5 points, the Raiders and Saints went 2-14 while down by an average of 9.5 with Carr.
But my main point (before it got turned into yet another 'Geno vs. Insert Other QB' debate), was to comment on Kubiak's offense. One of the criticisms of what he did in New Orleans was that he couldn't engineer wins when teams fell behind. All I was trying to do was point out that, to the degree that was based on personnel, he'd be coming into a better situation here in Seattle. The numbers back this point up unambiguously, but because it requires us to say something positive about Geno, we end up with this.
Be interested in hearing how the fans of the teams he was on feel about him.
Is it true that he was on five teams in five years?
If so, that is a GLARING red flag.
He's here, so we have to hope it works out.
This is a tough place for an OC to succeed. Our strengths are the passing game, but our weakness is a godawful OL and trash tier RB room. Our OL struggles in pass pro AND run blocking.
I don't agree about the 'trash tier' RB room stuff, but yes, this will be his 5th team in 5 years, but that's already been somewhat addressed.
He finished in Minny as the OC, which was an internal promotion from the same team. After the HC got fired, he went to Denver and had an in-season promotion to play caller--but that entire season was doomed and his HC was fired, so he took a lateral position in SF. He left SF for a promotion to be OC again and now will be keeping that status here.
He only had to take 1 unambiguous step back (leaving Minny for Denver) but had 3 promotions across the same timeframe. He was never himself fired by a Head Coach across these time frames. He either left for a promotion (SF to NO) or because his head coach was fired (Minny, Denver, New Orleans).