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Sacrificial Lambs …
Week 17: Seahawks vs. Rams Game Preview …
Thud. That was the sound of the lump of coal that this Seattle team got in their stocking this past Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals came in to Century Link Field and did the seemingly impossible, beating a Seahawks team that had not lost there since December 24, 2011. That’s the 2nd time in 3 years that the Grinch stole Christmas in Seahawk-ville. Now the Seahawks find themselves in a must win situation, as the NFC West and the #1 Seed in the Playoffs is still on the line. The formula for the Seahawks this week is simple -- win and the NFC West crown and the # 1 Seed is theirs … lose -- and they need San Francisco to also lose in order to achieve those goals. Seattle controls its own destiny, but it certainly won’t be easy. They face a Rams team that has won 4 of their last 6 games, including quality wins against the Colts (38-8) and the Saints (27-16). Though St. Louis will finish 4th in the division this year, a win for them means that they will finish with a .500 record (8-8) -- meaning that all 4 NFC West Teams will have a winning record. What a turnaround for a division that just 3 years ago was considered the laughingstock of the NFL. Who’s laughing now? The Seahawks hope that it will be them come Sunday. What do they have to do to make that happen? Let’s take a look at 4 Keys to Victory against a deceptively tough Rams team. Before we get into all of that though, here are most of the pertinent numbers for both teams …
[tdo=4]Rams vs. Seahawks Offense-Defense Comparison …[/tdo]
And now on to Key to Victory #1 …
Key #1: Derail the Rambling Ram …
As always, let’s start by looking at a quick breakdown of the Rams Run/Pass Ratio this season ...
408 Rushing Attempts …46.15% of Offense
476 Passing Attempts …53.84% of Offense
884 Total Attempts ...
So unlike a lot of teams out there, the Rams have a Run/Pass Ratio that has been fairly close to 50/50 this year. And the man that Seattle is going to really have to key on stopping this Sunday is the one they didn’t do a very good job of slowing down last time -- Zac Stacy. RB Zac Stacy (5’8” 224 Pounds), this year’s 5th Round Choice out of Vanderbilt, has proven to be a legitimate threat in this offense this year. Stacy has good speed (4.42 in the 40) and ended up posting back to back 1,000 yard rushing campaigns his Junior and Senior years.
This season, Stacy has been the main workhorse for the Rams running attack ...
[tdo=6]2013 Rams Rushing Offense[/tdo]
Though the Seahawks won 14-9 back in Week 8, Stacy is a guy who gave the Legion of Boom fits, as he rambled for 134 yards against them that day. To be completely fair though, Stacy has done that to a lot of teams this year. Here is a list of his rushing performances from Week 8 on ...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Zac Stacy has had some big performances this year … most of them (outside of the Seahawks) being against the lower echelon defenses of the NFL. One of the most concerning things for the Hawks that day … was that Stacy was able to break 5 tackles against the defense. In all, Seattle missed a season high 8 tackles against the Rams the first time around. The Rams defense, on the other hand, only missed 2 tackles on the day. That’s got to change if the Seahawks hope to avoid another repeat performance by Stacy.
Since allowing 200 yards on the ground to the Rams in Week 8 … and 205 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers at Century Link in Week 9 though … the Seahawks run defense has been fairly stout ...
Falcons (Week 10 -- 11/10/13)… 16 Carries … 64 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry)
Vikings (Week 11 -- 11/17/13) … 33 Carries … 132 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry) … BUT, 58 of the Vikings 132 Rushing Yards in that game came against the 2nd and 3rd String after the starters were pulled at the start of the 4th Quarter. The Vikings managed only 73 yards on 28 carries on the ground total (2.81 Yards/Carry) against the starters.
Saints (Week 13 -- 12/2/13) …17 Carries … 44 Yards Rushing (2.6 Yards/Carry)
49ers (Week 14 -- 12/8/13) … 33 Carries … 163 Yards Rushing (4.9 Yards/Carry). However, 51 of Frank Gore’s yards came on 1 play. Take away that 1 play and the Seahawks limited San Francisco to 32 Carries … 112 Yards Rushing (just 3.5 Yards/Carry).
Giants (Week 15 -- 12/15/13) … 14 Carries … 25 Yards Rushing (1.8 Yards/Carry).
Cardinals (Week 16 -- 12/22/13) … 43 Carries … 139 Yards Rushing (3.2 Yards/Carry)
The Rams received a heck of a blow to the jaw this week when it was revealed that starting Left Tackle Jake Long (6’7” 322 Pounds) suffered a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee last Sunday that will require season ending knee surgery. Part of the reason that Stacy went off against the Seahawks last time … was that Long was dominant against the Hawks defensive front. ProFootball Focus had Long graded out at a +3.1 in Run Blocking against Seattle back in Week 8. According to them, the Rams rushed 11 times off of the Left Side, gaining 81 of his 134 Yards (7.4 Yards/Carry) that way … 39 yards of which were gained after contact.
Rodger Saffold (6’5” 332 Pounds), who started the Buccaneers game at right guard, switched over the Long’s left tackle spot for the rest of the day after he went down with the injury. He’ll take over at LT now that Long is out. That may turn out to be a real blow to the Rams, as Saffold was playing extremely well at RG and St. Louis’s offense had been averaging 24.9 Points/Game in the 7 games since they last played the Seahawks. Shelley Smith (6’4” 312 Pounds) ended up coming off the bench to take over at right guard against the Bucs and will be the starting RG when they face the Seahawks this Sunday.
As of last Sunday, the Rams Offensive Line was ranked as the 8th best Run Blocking unit according to Football Outsiders. We’ll see just how much that Rams rushing attack will be affected by the loss of Long and the subsequent shifting around of personnel.
Key #2: Be Masters of the Skies …
When Seattle faced the Rams the first time this season, they squared off against Kellen Clemens, a 30 year old career backup out of Oregon, as starting QB Sam Bradford had been lost for the year with a torn ACL in the Carolina Panthers game the previous week.
Seattle ended up doing well against Clemens, allowing him to complete just 15 of 13 passes (48% Completion Rate) for 158 yards and intercepting him twice.
Clemens has started 7 game since that time. Here is how he’s done ...
[tdo=10]Kellen Clemens’s 2013 Statistics (Weeks 8-16)[/tdo]Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-16-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, though Clemens has struggled against some of the top teams out there, he has also had some decent games against some of the better defenses in the league as well.
Despite the fact that Seattle won the last time they faced St. Louis, the Seahawks defense was actually kept in check most of the day. Though Seattle did end up sacking Clemens 3 times, they weren’t able to get consistent pressure on him throughout the game. That’s because their offensive line did a good job against the Seattle pass rush. Football Outsiders noted that LT Jake Long gave up no QB pressures in that game. The same was true on the right side as well, as neither Joe Barksdale (6’5” 326 Pounds) [59 snaps] and nor Rodger Saffold (6’5” 322 Pounds) (21 snaps) surrendered any QB pressures at right tackle either. This Rams team has had a very good offensive line all season long, as they come in to this contest on Sunday with the 13th Best Pass Blocking unit in all of football according to Football Outsiders. Now that Jake Long is out however, that could conceivably change. Rodger Saffold has been moved back to LT and although he has years of experience at the position, there is a reason the coaching staff moved him from LT in the first place. Saffold simply doesn’t have the mobility to be able to effectively deal with some of the better pass rushers out there (like Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril, or Michael Bennett). After struggling at the RT position, Saffold had been doing very well at RG. Now he’s being moved back to LT and being asked to face some of the best pass rushers in the league. Shades of Robert Quinn vs. Paul McQuistan start to come to mind -- against the Rams this time though. Kellen Clemens may need to be honing his track skills for Sunday.
Kellen Clemens is what he is -- he isn’t the type of quarterback that is an innovator and can make plays when things with the offense break down. He has a decent arm, can be fairly accurate with his passes, and has enough mobility to get himself out of trouble if provided with an escape route. However, there is a reason he’s been a career backup. If you pressure him consistently, he’s not all that effective at adapting to what the defense is doing to him and his ability to connect with his receivers is severely affected.
Speaking of receivers, here are the Rams top receiving targets this year ...
[tdo=9](2013) Rams Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]
Tight End Jared Cook and rookie wideout Tavon Austin have been the leading receivers on this team thus far this year. Tavon Austin is a fast (timed at 4.25 in the 40), dynamic player whom the Rams envisioned as a poor man’s Percy Harvin (someone who would change the way teams defended their entire receiving corps) when they took him in the 1st Round this year. But Austin has been out the past couple of games with an ankle injury however and did not practice either Wednesday or Thursday. He was a limited participant in practice on Friday and is officially listed as Questionable, so his status for this game appears to be very much in doubt.
Austin didn’t exactly burn the Seahawks last time though, as he managed just 9 yards on 2 catches. The leading receivers against the Legion of Boom back in Week 8 were …
WR Chris Givens … 4 Catches for 59 Yards (14.8 Yards Avg.)
TE Jared Cook … 3 Catches for 31 Yards (10.3 Yards Avg.)
WR Austin Pettis … 2 Catches for 22 Yards (16.5 Yards Avg.)
TE Lance Kenricks … 2 Catches for 23 Yards (11.5 Yards Avg.)
WR Tavon Austin … 2 Catches for 9 Yards (4.5 Yards Avg.)
FB Daryl Richardson … 1 Catch for 8 Yards
RB Zac Stacy … 1 Catch for -5 Yards
None of the Rams WR’s ended up burning the Legion of Boom at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis the last time these 2 teams met. To me, that shows the true ineptitude of this St. Louis Offense and is a sign that this team is probably going to be in real trouble come Sunday. You see, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Chris Clemons were held in check for the most part due to the play of Jake Long at LT ... Rodger Saffold and Joe Barksdale at RT … and the Rams tight ends who were kept in to block. So, Kellen Clemens experienced very little to NO pressure most of the day. How did Clemens do?
Kellen Clemens ended up completing only 11 of 21 passes for 129 yards and 2 interceptions against the Legion of Boom. He had a passer rating of just 31.7 … managed just 6.1 yards/pass … and a grand total of 9 points -- in situations in which he was under NO pressure.
And all of that was at home sweet home. Now Clemens is being asked to face the league’s best defense … without his starting left tackle ... in the earthquake producing ear-splitting cacophony of False Start Central that is Century Link Field.
Although the Seahawks lost last week 17-10, they also intercepted a superior quarterback in Carson Palmer 4 times and limited a far better receiving corps to just 13 of 25 passing (52% Completion Rate) … and 1 lone touchdown that Byron Maxwell got his hand on … and was within a hair of being an incomplete pass.
Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times posted some eye-popping stats this week on Richard Sherman. Sherman now sports the lowest QB Rating Against of any CB in the league (52.2). What’s really impressive is when you realize that no CB in the league has been targeted LESS by opposing QB’s than Sherman (a total of just 57 times this year). Opposing QB’s have gone his way on average just 1 time in 9.2 snaps. And yet, he leads the league with 8 interceptions -- meaning, that he intercepts a pass 14% of the time it comes his way.
With Walter Thumond back this week from his 4 game suspension and a lightning fast Malcolm Smith now in for the injured K.J. Wright, it’s possible that the pass defense’s numbers could actually improve. Though the Rams Offense is scoring more points on average than they have since 2002 ... I wouldn’t expect them to suddenly morph into the Denver Broncos against a Seahawks team that has held opponents to an average of just 14.4 Points/Game at home this season.
Key #3: Be Beastly …
As everyone knows, the Seahawks Offense is predicated on the running the football. It is not merely the primary means by which they move the ball … it is their identity, as the rest of the offense flows from the running game. Seattle utilizes play action pass 34.3% of the time -- more than any other team in the NFL. Prior to the San Francisco game, ProFootball Focus noted that when using play action pass effectively, Russell Wilson averages 10.0 yards/pass attempt … and has thrown 11 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions and has a passer rating of 120.9. So in many ways, getting the run game going is absolutely essential to everything that Seattle does on offense. The problem lately though has been that the run game and Beast Mode has been anything but Beastly …
Marshawn Lynch’s Rushing Totals …
Week 11 (11/17/2013) vs. Vikings … 17 Carries … 54 Yards … 3.18 Yards/Carry … 2 TD
Week 12 BYE
Week 13 (12/2/2013) vs. Saints … 16 Carries … 45 Yards … 2.8 Yards/Carry … 0 TD
Week 14 (12/8/2013) at 49ers … 20 Carries … 72 Yards … 3.6 Yards/Carry … 1 TD
Week 15 (12/15/2013) at Giants …16 Carries … 47 Yards … 2.9 Yards/Carry … 1 TD
Week 16 (12/22/2013) vs. Cardinals …18 Carries … 71 Yards … 3.9 Yards/Carry … 0 TD
When the Seahawks last saw these Rams back in Week 8, they were giving up an average of 126.4 Rushing Yards/Game (3rd Most in the League). The week after facing the Seahawks, the Rams defense ended up allowing the Titans to rumble for 198 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Now just 8 weeks later, the Rams are allowing just 102.3 Yards/Game and an average of just 3.8 Yards/Carry (7th Best Rush Defense in the league).
And lest we forget, the Seahawks didn’t do squat against the Rams Defensive Front 7 on the ground last time either. With Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini both out with injuries, the Rams absolutely had their way with the Hawks Offensive Line, holding Marshawn Lynch to just 23 yards rushing on 8 carries (2.9 yards/rush) on the day.
The Hawks were able to muster just 38 yards of total offense in the 1st half -- their lowest total for a half since the Chiefs in 1998.
DE Robert Quinn (6’4” 264 Pounds) [10 Tackles for Loss]
DE Chris Long (6’3 268 Pounds) [6 Tackles for Loss]
DT Kendall Langford (6’6” 295 pounds) [6 Tackles for Loss]
MLB James Laurinaitis (6’2” 248 Pounds) [106 Tackles, 6 Tackles for Loss]
and WLB Alec Ogletree (6’2” 245 Pounds) [109 Tackles, 10 Tackles for Loss] ...
… make this group a difficult one to run against. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams now rank #4 (-17.8%) against the run.
We know that Pete Carroll and company plan to run the ball and to get the running game cranked up for the playoff stretch. Against that defensive front though, it’s not going to be easy. Seattle has the benefit of its starting tackles this time, but how effective they’ll be in opening up holes on Sunday remains to be seen. Center Max Unger has been dealing with a pectoral issue for awhile now … and Russell Okung was bothered yet again by a sore toe (the same one that sidelined him for several weeks) after the Cardinals game. Okung left in the 2nd Half of the Cardinals game with what coaches were describing as soreness in his big toe. Alvin Bailey ended up seeing time at LT and Michael Bowie saw time at RG, in for the injured J.R. Sweezy. Bowie, Okung, and Giacomini all played extremely well, Bowie even earning the praise of the coaching staff -- Unger and James Carpenter both struggled, particularly in run blocking. We’ll see if the Hawks come out firing on all cylinders this weekend -- they’re certainly going to need all pistons firing against this group.
Key #4: Take These Broken Wings …And Learn to Fly Again ...
Coming in to the San Francisco game just 3 weeks ago, Russell Wilson was ProFootball Focus’s 2nd Rated QB (+24.6). Most impressively, he was completing 60% of all his deep passes (by far the best in the league).
But Wilson struggled against the 49ers, forcing some passes … making some questionable decisions … and looking decidedly mortal against Novorro Bowman and a very good San Francisco Defense. He was inaccurate on several throws and came within a hair’s width of an interception by CB Eric Wright.
And though Seattle won the game against Giants 2 weeks ago, Wilson wasn’t exactly stellar, making a very un-Wilson-like What in the World Were You Thinking throw that got picked off by Antrel Rolle, finishing with a QB Rating of just 86.3 that day.
This past week, ProFootball Focus had Wilson with the lowest Accuracy Percentage of any QB in the league [45.8] … and finished with a QB Rating of just 49.6 -- the lowest of his professional career. Wilson made a number of bad throws against the Cardinals, including one in which he threw in to triple coverage that should have been picked off. Wilson had misfires all day long … and for all the grief we Seahawks fans gave the officials for that last “interception” on the pass to Baldwin … the fact is that the pass was underthrown.
Wilson responded as he typically does, beating coach Pete Carroll to the VMAC the next morning. Carroll said Wilson was already there in the film room when he arrived at 4:30am, trying to dissect exactly what went wrong and what he can do to fix things.
Did anybody out there get the number of that truck? I believe I did. Here is how I saw the accident scene: Arizona knew that Seattle likes the throw the ball deep -- maybe more than any other team in football. So, they simply focused on taking away the deep routes, knowing that Seattle’s receivers aren’t speedsters who can generally burn a secondary deep. That meant Russell Wilson (if he was going to complete any passes) would have to look to the short routes, which is unfortunate because many times receivers were open in those areas. Whether it was a result of Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell’s playcalling … Russell Wilson’s “look deep first” mentality … or a combination of both, Seattle kept looking for the long ball … which was conspicuously absent most of the day. This team has got to learn (especially going in to the playoffs) that there are times when you’ve simply got to take what the defense is giving you. Whether its 4 quarters … or 20 nickels -- both equal a dollar.
And Seattle’s wide receiver situation became that much more compromised this week, as Jermaine Kearse (6’1” 209 Pounds) missed practice all this week with an ankle injury he suffered against the Cardinals. Because the Hawks are already thin due to the fact that Percy Harvin is still recovering from hip surgery, John Clayton suggested today (and I completely concur) that we may very well see a lot more 2 Tight End sets and that Luke Willson (6’5” 252 Pounds) might even line up at receiver. Willson ran a 4.51 40 yard dash on his Pro Day -- a blistering speed for a guy his size and he has had some big catches of late, so I could very much see him being a factor and a potential matchup problem. The Seahawks are certainly going to need someone to step up against this very tough Rams defense.
At Custer State Park in South Dakota, the Bighorn Sheep of the high mountain country have become a very dangerous animal for unsuspecting backpackers. After years of having been fed salty snacks by well meaning visitors, the Sheep have developed an insatiable desire for salt. They’ve learned one of the best sources for salt … is off of the bodies of sweaty backpackers. In the park, the Bighorn Sheep will now head-butt mountain climbers off of cliffs … and then scurry down the rocks to lick their dead sweaty corpses dry. This Rams team has most certainly done a lot of that this year, as they come in to this game 3rd in the league in Sacks (49) … and Number 1 in the league in Forced Fumbles (24). Let’s hope Seattle finds some answers for what happened this last weekend … because this Rams crew was an absolute nightmare when the Seahawks faced them 2 months ago.
At the risk of giving some of you flashbacks that’ll have you visiting your therapists again, let me remind you of what happened last time the Seahawks faced these guys. Russell Wilson was under siege all day long, getting sacked 7 times and basically being held in check all day long. Outside of that 80 yard TD pass to Golden Tate … Wilson had just 59 yards passing to the remainder of Seattle’s receivers.
With Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini out … it was the Robert Quinn and Chris Long show, as each of those guys beat the Hawks Offensive line like a group of African Drums, collecting 3 sacks apiece and tearing McQuistan and company to shreds.
And lest we forget, this Rams Front 4 did the exact same thing the last time they visited Century Link Field against a completely healthy Seahawks Offensive Line, sacking Russell Wilson 6 times in Week 17 last year.
Robert Quinn comes in to this game as the leading sack master in the NFL, sporting a jaw dropping 18 Sacks. Even with Okung and Giacomin back in the fold, Seattle has got to come up with some answers for Quinn and Chris Long (who has 7.5 Sacks) this time. Screen passes, quick trap plays, and all manner of quick hitting plays (something we’ve not seen a lot of this year) are time tested ways of taking advantage of an aggressive defensive front.
Coming in to that Week 8 Matchup, Russell Wilson was the most pressured QB in the league (nearly 50% of his drop back passes) according to Pro Football Focus. If Seattle can find a way to give Wilson time in the pocket to throw, then they have a real shot to rack up some numbers because that Rams secondary has been their Achilles Heel this year.
Teams have tested the Rams secondary at nearly the exact same rate as they have the Seahawks Legion of Boom ...
Seahawks … 494 Pass Attempts Against (7th Fewest)
Rams … 498 Pass Attempts Against (8th Fewest)
But unlike the Seahawks, their secondary has gleaned only 14 interceptions (tied for 17th) and has been fairly generous in many categories…
247.7 Pass Yds/Game Allowed (20th)
8.1 Yds/Pass Allowed (Tied 29th)
50 Passes of 20 Yards or More Allowed (Tied 17th)
68.3% Pass Comp. Allowed (32nd)
94.4 QB Rating Allowed (23rd)
The Rams secondary was affected early in the season by the loss of Free Safety T.J. McDonald (6’2” 217 Pounds), who was on IR. CB Cortland Finnegan (5’10” 179 Pounds), LB Will Witherspoon (6’1” 242 Pounds), and others were all slowed by injuries to one degree or another this year, so that affected the offense as a whole early on in the season. However, guys like McDonald and RCB Janoris Jenkins (5’10” 179 Pounds) [61 Tackles … 1 Sack … 1 TFL … 14 PD … 1 INT] have been playing much better of late. Jenkins ended up allowing Drew Brees to complete less than 50% of his passes against him when the Rams played the Saints 2 weeks ago. But at this point, it looks like McDonald may miss this game as well, as he missed Thursday and Friday’s practice with an illness and is listed as Questionable. Last time, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks receivers took advantage of some confusion on the part of the Rams secondary in order to complete some timely plays that were ultimately the difference in the game. If the Hawks are going to beat this team come Sunday, the Offensive Line has simply got to give Wilson time to find those gaps in the Rams secondary that have been there most of the season. If they allow Quinn, Long, and those guys to have another encore performance though, then this one likely becomes another nail-biter.
Bold Prediction …
It’s hard to get a real read on the psychology of this Rams team, as their season is officially over after Sunday’s game. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a lot for them to play for outside of things like personal pride, the fact that this is a division rival, that the team has a chance to finish at .500, and that jobs are potentially on the line for next season. That said, this is a Jeff Fisher team. Fisher has always been a real aggressive, fiery coach and his teams always emulate that same kind of grit and blood and guts tenacity. Because of that, I expect these guys to give the Seahawks a real run for their money on Sunday. In a nutshell, I see this game coming down to a battle of offensive lines. As discussed extensively above, I envision Jake Long’s absence looming large in this game, which will make it a real struggle for the Rams to get any kind of offense going. The only reason that the Rams were at all in it last time was that Zac Stacy had a big day because the Rams Offensive line was able to open up holes for him. This time with Long out and going in to a hostile environment, it’s quite conceivable that the Seahawks Front 7 does to Kellen Clemens what the Rams Front 7 did to Russell Wilson and the Hawks last time. On the other side, if Seahawks O-Line finds a way to give Wilson time and to neutralize Quinn’s effectiveness (particularly in the run game) … then this one has a chance to become ugly. Against this defense, I just don’t see that happening though. I’d look for this game to be close early and be a real battle between 2 good defenses. In the end however, I see the Hawks pulling away late in the 3rd and 4th quarters, as the Rams defense tires due to the struggles of the offense. The Rams haven’t won a game in Seattle since October 10, 2004 and I certainly don’t see this group being anywhere close to on par with the Greatest Show on Turf. The Seahawks finally win the NFC West and the #1 Seed in the playoffs in a hard fought and well earned victory.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 24
Rams 6
Week 17: Seahawks vs. Rams Game Preview …
Thud. That was the sound of the lump of coal that this Seattle team got in their stocking this past Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals came in to Century Link Field and did the seemingly impossible, beating a Seahawks team that had not lost there since December 24, 2011. That’s the 2nd time in 3 years that the Grinch stole Christmas in Seahawk-ville. Now the Seahawks find themselves in a must win situation, as the NFC West and the #1 Seed in the Playoffs is still on the line. The formula for the Seahawks this week is simple -- win and the NFC West crown and the # 1 Seed is theirs … lose -- and they need San Francisco to also lose in order to achieve those goals. Seattle controls its own destiny, but it certainly won’t be easy. They face a Rams team that has won 4 of their last 6 games, including quality wins against the Colts (38-8) and the Saints (27-16). Though St. Louis will finish 4th in the division this year, a win for them means that they will finish with a .500 record (8-8) -- meaning that all 4 NFC West Teams will have a winning record. What a turnaround for a division that just 3 years ago was considered the laughingstock of the NFL. Who’s laughing now? The Seahawks hope that it will be them come Sunday. What do they have to do to make that happen? Let’s take a look at 4 Keys to Victory against a deceptively tough Rams team. Before we get into all of that though, here are most of the pertinent numbers for both teams …
| Rams Off. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Def. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Off. Category/NFL Rank | Rams Def. Category/NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 314.6 Yards/Game (26th) | 281.3 Yards/Game Allwd (1st) | 343.7 Yards/Game (14th) | 350.1 Yards/Game Allwd (17th Fewest) |
| 22.6 Points Scored/Game (20th) | 14.8 Points/Game Allwd (2nd) | 26.0 Points Scored/Game (8th) | 22.5 Points/Game Allwd (13th) |
| 35% on 3rd Downs (Tied 24th) | 36% of 3rd Down Allwd (Tied 10th) | 38% on 3rd Downs (Tied 16th) | 39% of 3rd Downs Allwd (Tied 19th) |
| 19 Fumbles (Tied 13th) | 25 Fumbles Caused (Tied 4th) | 26 Fumbles (5th Most) | 27 Fumbles Caused (Tied 1st) |
| 408 Rushing Attempts (17th) | 404 Rush Attempts Against (Tied 12th Fewest) | 473 Rushing Attempts (3rd) | 404 Rush Att Against (Tied 12th Fewest) |
| 1,739 Rushing Yds (16th) | 1,613 Rush Yds Allwd (13th Fewest) | 2,077 Rushing Yards (4th) | 1,535 Yards/Game Allwd (7th Fewest) |
| 115.9 Rushing Yds/Game (16th) | 107.5 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (12th Fewest) | 138.5 Rushing Yds/Game (4th) | 102.3 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (7th Fewest) |
| 11 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 9th) | 6 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (Tied 6th Fewest) | 11 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 9th) | 12 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (20th) |
| 10 Rushing TD’s (Tied 21st) | 4 Rushing TD’s Allwd (Tied Fewest) | 13 Rushing TD’s (Tied 14th) | 17 Rushing TD’s Allwd (27th) |
| 81 First Downs (Tied 21st) | 82 First Downs Allwd (12th Fewest) | 109 First Downs (5th) | 80 First Downs Allwd (Tied 10th Fewest) |
| 6 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 14th) | 7 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 8th Most) | 6 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 14th) | 8 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 5th) |
| 476 Pass Attempts (27th) | 494 Pass Att Against (7th Fewest) | 397 Pass Attempts (31st) | 498 Pass Att Against (8th Fewest) |
| 2,980 Passing Yds (27th) | 2,607 Pass Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 3,078 Passing Yards (26th) | 3,716 Pass Yds Allwd (20th) |
| 198.7 Passing Yds/Game (27th) | 173.8 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (Fewest) | 205.2 Passing Yds/Game (26th) | 247.7 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (20th) |
| 6.7 Average Yds/Pass (Tied 22nd) | 5.9 Yds/Pass Att Allwd (Fewest) | 8.4 Average Yds/Pass (2nd) | 8.1 Yds/Pass Allwd (Tied 29th) |
| 11.4 Avg. Yds/Reception (Tied 19th) | 10.0 Yds/Reception Allwd (Fewest) | 13.2 Avg Yds/Reception (2nd) | 11.8 Yds/Reception Allwd (Tied 15th Fewest) |
| 58.8% Pass Completion (22nd) | 58.3% Pass Comp. Allwd (6th) | 63.5% Pass Completion (10th) | 68.3% Pass Comp. Allwd (32nd) |
| 21 Passing TD’s (21st) | 15 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied Fewest) | 26 Passing TD’s (10th) | 20 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied 7th Fewest) |
| 40 Passes of 20+ Yds (29th) | 29 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 51 Passes of 20+ Yds (Tied 11th) | 50 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (Tied 17th) |
| 86.0 QB Rating (16th) | 63.3 QB Rating Allwd (1st) | 102.4 QB Rating (3rd) | 94.4 QB Rating Allwd (23rd) |
| 9 Interceptions Thrown (Tied 2nd Least) | 26 Interceptions (Most) | 9 Interceptions Thrown (Tied 2nd Least) | 14 Interceptions (Tied 17th) |
| 34 Sacks Allowed (7th Fewest) | 42 Sacks (Tied 9th) | 40 Sacks Allowed (Tied 16th) | 49 Sacks (3rd) |
| 70 QB Hits Allowed (22nd) | NA | 85 QB Hits Allowed (11th) | NA |
| NA | 106 Passes Defensed (7th) | NA | 85 Passes Defensed (Tied 16th) |
And now on to Key to Victory #1 …
Key #1: Derail the Rambling Ram …
As always, let’s start by looking at a quick breakdown of the Rams Run/Pass Ratio this season ...
408 Rushing Attempts …46.15% of Offense
476 Passing Attempts …53.84% of Offense
884 Total Attempts ...
So unlike a lot of teams out there, the Rams have a Run/Pass Ratio that has been fairly close to 50/50 this year. And the man that Seattle is going to really have to key on stopping this Sunday is the one they didn’t do a very good job of slowing down last time -- Zac Stacy. RB Zac Stacy (5’8” 224 Pounds), this year’s 5th Round Choice out of Vanderbilt, has proven to be a legitimate threat in this offense this year. Stacy has good speed (4.42 in the 40) and ended up posting back to back 1,000 yard rushing campaigns his Junior and Senior years.
This season, Stacy has been the main workhorse for the Rams running attack ...
| Player | Rush Attempts | Rushing Yards | Yards/Carry | Runs of 20 Yards+ | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Zac Stacy | 235 | 958 | 4.1 | 5 | 7 |
| FB Daryl Richardson | 69 | 215 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 |
| RB Benny Cunningham | 47 | 261 | 5.6 | 2 | 1 |
Though the Seahawks won 14-9 back in Week 8, Stacy is a guy who gave the Legion of Boom fits, as he rambled for 134 yards against them that day. To be completely fair though, Stacy has done that to a lot of teams this year. Here is a list of his rushing performances from Week 8 on ...
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Zac Stacy has had some big performances this year … most of them (outside of the Seahawks) being against the lower echelon defenses of the NFL. One of the most concerning things for the Hawks that day … was that Stacy was able to break 5 tackles against the defense. In all, Seattle missed a season high 8 tackles against the Rams the first time around. The Rams defense, on the other hand, only missed 2 tackles on the day. That’s got to change if the Seahawks hope to avoid another repeat performance by Stacy.
Since allowing 200 yards on the ground to the Rams in Week 8 … and 205 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers at Century Link in Week 9 though … the Seahawks run defense has been fairly stout ...
Falcons (Week 10 -- 11/10/13)… 16 Carries … 64 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry)
Vikings (Week 11 -- 11/17/13) … 33 Carries … 132 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry) … BUT, 58 of the Vikings 132 Rushing Yards in that game came against the 2nd and 3rd String after the starters were pulled at the start of the 4th Quarter. The Vikings managed only 73 yards on 28 carries on the ground total (2.81 Yards/Carry) against the starters.
Saints (Week 13 -- 12/2/13) …17 Carries … 44 Yards Rushing (2.6 Yards/Carry)
49ers (Week 14 -- 12/8/13) … 33 Carries … 163 Yards Rushing (4.9 Yards/Carry). However, 51 of Frank Gore’s yards came on 1 play. Take away that 1 play and the Seahawks limited San Francisco to 32 Carries … 112 Yards Rushing (just 3.5 Yards/Carry).
Giants (Week 15 -- 12/15/13) … 14 Carries … 25 Yards Rushing (1.8 Yards/Carry).
Cardinals (Week 16 -- 12/22/13) … 43 Carries … 139 Yards Rushing (3.2 Yards/Carry)
The Rams received a heck of a blow to the jaw this week when it was revealed that starting Left Tackle Jake Long (6’7” 322 Pounds) suffered a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee last Sunday that will require season ending knee surgery. Part of the reason that Stacy went off against the Seahawks last time … was that Long was dominant against the Hawks defensive front. ProFootball Focus had Long graded out at a +3.1 in Run Blocking against Seattle back in Week 8. According to them, the Rams rushed 11 times off of the Left Side, gaining 81 of his 134 Yards (7.4 Yards/Carry) that way … 39 yards of which were gained after contact.
Rodger Saffold (6’5” 332 Pounds), who started the Buccaneers game at right guard, switched over the Long’s left tackle spot for the rest of the day after he went down with the injury. He’ll take over at LT now that Long is out. That may turn out to be a real blow to the Rams, as Saffold was playing extremely well at RG and St. Louis’s offense had been averaging 24.9 Points/Game in the 7 games since they last played the Seahawks. Shelley Smith (6’4” 312 Pounds) ended up coming off the bench to take over at right guard against the Bucs and will be the starting RG when they face the Seahawks this Sunday.
As of last Sunday, the Rams Offensive Line was ranked as the 8th best Run Blocking unit according to Football Outsiders. We’ll see just how much that Rams rushing attack will be affected by the loss of Long and the subsequent shifting around of personnel.
Key #2: Be Masters of the Skies …
When Seattle faced the Rams the first time this season, they squared off against Kellen Clemens, a 30 year old career backup out of Oregon, as starting QB Sam Bradford had been lost for the year with a torn ACL in the Carolina Panthers game the previous week.
Seattle ended up doing well against Clemens, allowing him to complete just 15 of 13 passes (48% Completion Rate) for 158 yards and intercepting him twice.
Clemens has started 7 game since that time. Here is how he’s done ...
| Week | Opponent | Opp. Def DVOA (Football Outsiders) | Comp. | Att. | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 (10/28) | 9-14 LOSS vs. Seahawks | -24.7% (1st) | 15 | 31 | 48.4% | 158 | 0 | 2 | 36.8 |
| 9 (11/3) | 21-28 LOSS vs Titans | 3.3% (18th) | 20 | 35 | 57.1% | 210 | 1 | 0 | 84.2 |
| 10 (11/10) | 38-8 WIN at Colts | 0.7% (17th) | 9 | 16 | 56.3% | 247 | 2 | 0 | 140.6 |
| 12 (11/24) | 42-21 WIN vs Bears | 9.6% (26th) | 10 | 22 | 45.5% | 167 | 1 | 0 | 86.7 |
| 13 (12/1) | 13-23 LOSS at 49ers | -6.1% (10th) | 19 | 37 | 51.4% | 218 | 1 | 1 | 67.2 |
| 14 (12/8) | 10-30 LOSS at Cardinals | -17.8% (2nd) | 16 | 27 | 59.3% | 181 | 0 | 2 | 48.5 |
| 15 (12/15) | 27-16 WIN vs. Saints | -6.1% (11th) | 14 | 20 | 70.0% | 158 | 2 | 0 | 126.7 |
| 16 (12/22) | 23-13 WIN vs. Buccaneers | -10.7% 6th) | 16 | 20 | 80.0% | 158 | 0 | 0 | 99.6 |
| Season Totals | NA | NA | 121 | 212 | 57.1% | 1,516 | 7 | 5 | 80.6 |
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-16-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, though Clemens has struggled against some of the top teams out there, he has also had some decent games against some of the better defenses in the league as well.
Despite the fact that Seattle won the last time they faced St. Louis, the Seahawks defense was actually kept in check most of the day. Though Seattle did end up sacking Clemens 3 times, they weren’t able to get consistent pressure on him throughout the game. That’s because their offensive line did a good job against the Seattle pass rush. Football Outsiders noted that LT Jake Long gave up no QB pressures in that game. The same was true on the right side as well, as neither Joe Barksdale (6’5” 326 Pounds) [59 snaps] and nor Rodger Saffold (6’5” 322 Pounds) (21 snaps) surrendered any QB pressures at right tackle either. This Rams team has had a very good offensive line all season long, as they come in to this contest on Sunday with the 13th Best Pass Blocking unit in all of football according to Football Outsiders. Now that Jake Long is out however, that could conceivably change. Rodger Saffold has been moved back to LT and although he has years of experience at the position, there is a reason the coaching staff moved him from LT in the first place. Saffold simply doesn’t have the mobility to be able to effectively deal with some of the better pass rushers out there (like Chris Clemons, Cliff Avril, or Michael Bennett). After struggling at the RT position, Saffold had been doing very well at RG. Now he’s being moved back to LT and being asked to face some of the best pass rushers in the league. Shades of Robert Quinn vs. Paul McQuistan start to come to mind -- against the Rams this time though. Kellen Clemens may need to be honing his track skills for Sunday.
Kellen Clemens is what he is -- he isn’t the type of quarterback that is an innovator and can make plays when things with the offense break down. He has a decent arm, can be fairly accurate with his passes, and has enough mobility to get himself out of trouble if provided with an escape route. However, there is a reason he’s been a career backup. If you pressure him consistently, he’s not all that effective at adapting to what the defense is doing to him and his ability to connect with his receivers is severely affected.
Speaking of receivers, here are the Rams top receiving targets this year ...
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Targets | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE Jared Cook | 6’5” 254 Lbs | 46 | 76 | 641 | 13.9 | 4 | 9 |
| WR Tavon Austin | 5’8” 176 Lbs | 40 | 69 | 418 | 10.5 | 4 | 5 |
| WR Austin Pettis | 6’3” 203 Lbs | 36 | 61 | 384 | 10.7 | 4 | 4 |
| WR Chris Givens | 6’0” 203 Lbs | 34 | 79 | 569 | 16.7 | 0 | 13 |
| TE Lance Kendricks | 6'3” 250 Lbs | 27 | 40 | 204 | 7.6 | 4 | 0 |
| RB Zac Stacy | 5'8” 224 Lbs | 22 | 31 | 118 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 |
| WR Brian Quick | 6'3" 218 Lbs | 18 | 35 | 302 | 16.8 | 2 | 5 |
| RB Daryl Richardson | 5'10" 206 Lbs | 14 | 18 | 121 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 |
| WR Stedman Bailey | 5'10" 193 Lbs | 13 | 20 | 193 | 14.8 | 0 | 2 |
| TE Cory Harkey | 6'4" 259 Lbs | 13 | 18 | 113 | 8.7 | 2 | 1 |
| RB Isaiah Pead | 5'10" 197 Lbs | 11 | 15 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 |
Tight End Jared Cook and rookie wideout Tavon Austin have been the leading receivers on this team thus far this year. Tavon Austin is a fast (timed at 4.25 in the 40), dynamic player whom the Rams envisioned as a poor man’s Percy Harvin (someone who would change the way teams defended their entire receiving corps) when they took him in the 1st Round this year. But Austin has been out the past couple of games with an ankle injury however and did not practice either Wednesday or Thursday. He was a limited participant in practice on Friday and is officially listed as Questionable, so his status for this game appears to be very much in doubt.
Austin didn’t exactly burn the Seahawks last time though, as he managed just 9 yards on 2 catches. The leading receivers against the Legion of Boom back in Week 8 were …
WR Chris Givens … 4 Catches for 59 Yards (14.8 Yards Avg.)
TE Jared Cook … 3 Catches for 31 Yards (10.3 Yards Avg.)
WR Austin Pettis … 2 Catches for 22 Yards (16.5 Yards Avg.)
TE Lance Kenricks … 2 Catches for 23 Yards (11.5 Yards Avg.)
WR Tavon Austin … 2 Catches for 9 Yards (4.5 Yards Avg.)
FB Daryl Richardson … 1 Catch for 8 Yards
RB Zac Stacy … 1 Catch for -5 Yards
None of the Rams WR’s ended up burning the Legion of Boom at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis the last time these 2 teams met. To me, that shows the true ineptitude of this St. Louis Offense and is a sign that this team is probably going to be in real trouble come Sunday. You see, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Chris Clemons were held in check for the most part due to the play of Jake Long at LT ... Rodger Saffold and Joe Barksdale at RT … and the Rams tight ends who were kept in to block. So, Kellen Clemens experienced very little to NO pressure most of the day. How did Clemens do?
Kellen Clemens ended up completing only 11 of 21 passes for 129 yards and 2 interceptions against the Legion of Boom. He had a passer rating of just 31.7 … managed just 6.1 yards/pass … and a grand total of 9 points -- in situations in which he was under NO pressure.
And all of that was at home sweet home. Now Clemens is being asked to face the league’s best defense … without his starting left tackle ... in the earthquake producing ear-splitting cacophony of False Start Central that is Century Link Field.
Although the Seahawks lost last week 17-10, they also intercepted a superior quarterback in Carson Palmer 4 times and limited a far better receiving corps to just 13 of 25 passing (52% Completion Rate) … and 1 lone touchdown that Byron Maxwell got his hand on … and was within a hair of being an incomplete pass.
Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times posted some eye-popping stats this week on Richard Sherman. Sherman now sports the lowest QB Rating Against of any CB in the league (52.2). What’s really impressive is when you realize that no CB in the league has been targeted LESS by opposing QB’s than Sherman (a total of just 57 times this year). Opposing QB’s have gone his way on average just 1 time in 9.2 snaps. And yet, he leads the league with 8 interceptions -- meaning, that he intercepts a pass 14% of the time it comes his way.
With Walter Thumond back this week from his 4 game suspension and a lightning fast Malcolm Smith now in for the injured K.J. Wright, it’s possible that the pass defense’s numbers could actually improve. Though the Rams Offense is scoring more points on average than they have since 2002 ... I wouldn’t expect them to suddenly morph into the Denver Broncos against a Seahawks team that has held opponents to an average of just 14.4 Points/Game at home this season.
Key #3: Be Beastly …
As everyone knows, the Seahawks Offense is predicated on the running the football. It is not merely the primary means by which they move the ball … it is their identity, as the rest of the offense flows from the running game. Seattle utilizes play action pass 34.3% of the time -- more than any other team in the NFL. Prior to the San Francisco game, ProFootball Focus noted that when using play action pass effectively, Russell Wilson averages 10.0 yards/pass attempt … and has thrown 11 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions and has a passer rating of 120.9. So in many ways, getting the run game going is absolutely essential to everything that Seattle does on offense. The problem lately though has been that the run game and Beast Mode has been anything but Beastly …
Marshawn Lynch’s Rushing Totals …
Week 11 (11/17/2013) vs. Vikings … 17 Carries … 54 Yards … 3.18 Yards/Carry … 2 TD
Week 12 BYE
Week 13 (12/2/2013) vs. Saints … 16 Carries … 45 Yards … 2.8 Yards/Carry … 0 TD
Week 14 (12/8/2013) at 49ers … 20 Carries … 72 Yards … 3.6 Yards/Carry … 1 TD
Week 15 (12/15/2013) at Giants …16 Carries … 47 Yards … 2.9 Yards/Carry … 1 TD
Week 16 (12/22/2013) vs. Cardinals …18 Carries … 71 Yards … 3.9 Yards/Carry … 0 TD
When the Seahawks last saw these Rams back in Week 8, they were giving up an average of 126.4 Rushing Yards/Game (3rd Most in the League). The week after facing the Seahawks, the Rams defense ended up allowing the Titans to rumble for 198 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Now just 8 weeks later, the Rams are allowing just 102.3 Yards/Game and an average of just 3.8 Yards/Carry (7th Best Rush Defense in the league).
And lest we forget, the Seahawks didn’t do squat against the Rams Defensive Front 7 on the ground last time either. With Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini both out with injuries, the Rams absolutely had their way with the Hawks Offensive Line, holding Marshawn Lynch to just 23 yards rushing on 8 carries (2.9 yards/rush) on the day.
The Hawks were able to muster just 38 yards of total offense in the 1st half -- their lowest total for a half since the Chiefs in 1998.
DE Robert Quinn (6’4” 264 Pounds) [10 Tackles for Loss]
DE Chris Long (6’3 268 Pounds) [6 Tackles for Loss]
DT Kendall Langford (6’6” 295 pounds) [6 Tackles for Loss]
MLB James Laurinaitis (6’2” 248 Pounds) [106 Tackles, 6 Tackles for Loss]
and WLB Alec Ogletree (6’2” 245 Pounds) [109 Tackles, 10 Tackles for Loss] ...
… make this group a difficult one to run against. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams now rank #4 (-17.8%) against the run.
We know that Pete Carroll and company plan to run the ball and to get the running game cranked up for the playoff stretch. Against that defensive front though, it’s not going to be easy. Seattle has the benefit of its starting tackles this time, but how effective they’ll be in opening up holes on Sunday remains to be seen. Center Max Unger has been dealing with a pectoral issue for awhile now … and Russell Okung was bothered yet again by a sore toe (the same one that sidelined him for several weeks) after the Cardinals game. Okung left in the 2nd Half of the Cardinals game with what coaches were describing as soreness in his big toe. Alvin Bailey ended up seeing time at LT and Michael Bowie saw time at RG, in for the injured J.R. Sweezy. Bowie, Okung, and Giacomini all played extremely well, Bowie even earning the praise of the coaching staff -- Unger and James Carpenter both struggled, particularly in run blocking. We’ll see if the Hawks come out firing on all cylinders this weekend -- they’re certainly going to need all pistons firing against this group.
Key #4: Take These Broken Wings …And Learn to Fly Again ...
Coming in to the San Francisco game just 3 weeks ago, Russell Wilson was ProFootball Focus’s 2nd Rated QB (+24.6). Most impressively, he was completing 60% of all his deep passes (by far the best in the league).
But Wilson struggled against the 49ers, forcing some passes … making some questionable decisions … and looking decidedly mortal against Novorro Bowman and a very good San Francisco Defense. He was inaccurate on several throws and came within a hair’s width of an interception by CB Eric Wright.
And though Seattle won the game against Giants 2 weeks ago, Wilson wasn’t exactly stellar, making a very un-Wilson-like What in the World Were You Thinking throw that got picked off by Antrel Rolle, finishing with a QB Rating of just 86.3 that day.
This past week, ProFootball Focus had Wilson with the lowest Accuracy Percentage of any QB in the league [45.8] … and finished with a QB Rating of just 49.6 -- the lowest of his professional career. Wilson made a number of bad throws against the Cardinals, including one in which he threw in to triple coverage that should have been picked off. Wilson had misfires all day long … and for all the grief we Seahawks fans gave the officials for that last “interception” on the pass to Baldwin … the fact is that the pass was underthrown.
Wilson responded as he typically does, beating coach Pete Carroll to the VMAC the next morning. Carroll said Wilson was already there in the film room when he arrived at 4:30am, trying to dissect exactly what went wrong and what he can do to fix things.
Did anybody out there get the number of that truck? I believe I did. Here is how I saw the accident scene: Arizona knew that Seattle likes the throw the ball deep -- maybe more than any other team in football. So, they simply focused on taking away the deep routes, knowing that Seattle’s receivers aren’t speedsters who can generally burn a secondary deep. That meant Russell Wilson (if he was going to complete any passes) would have to look to the short routes, which is unfortunate because many times receivers were open in those areas. Whether it was a result of Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell’s playcalling … Russell Wilson’s “look deep first” mentality … or a combination of both, Seattle kept looking for the long ball … which was conspicuously absent most of the day. This team has got to learn (especially going in to the playoffs) that there are times when you’ve simply got to take what the defense is giving you. Whether its 4 quarters … or 20 nickels -- both equal a dollar.
And Seattle’s wide receiver situation became that much more compromised this week, as Jermaine Kearse (6’1” 209 Pounds) missed practice all this week with an ankle injury he suffered against the Cardinals. Because the Hawks are already thin due to the fact that Percy Harvin is still recovering from hip surgery, John Clayton suggested today (and I completely concur) that we may very well see a lot more 2 Tight End sets and that Luke Willson (6’5” 252 Pounds) might even line up at receiver. Willson ran a 4.51 40 yard dash on his Pro Day -- a blistering speed for a guy his size and he has had some big catches of late, so I could very much see him being a factor and a potential matchup problem. The Seahawks are certainly going to need someone to step up against this very tough Rams defense.
At Custer State Park in South Dakota, the Bighorn Sheep of the high mountain country have become a very dangerous animal for unsuspecting backpackers. After years of having been fed salty snacks by well meaning visitors, the Sheep have developed an insatiable desire for salt. They’ve learned one of the best sources for salt … is off of the bodies of sweaty backpackers. In the park, the Bighorn Sheep will now head-butt mountain climbers off of cliffs … and then scurry down the rocks to lick their dead sweaty corpses dry. This Rams team has most certainly done a lot of that this year, as they come in to this game 3rd in the league in Sacks (49) … and Number 1 in the league in Forced Fumbles (24). Let’s hope Seattle finds some answers for what happened this last weekend … because this Rams crew was an absolute nightmare when the Seahawks faced them 2 months ago.
At the risk of giving some of you flashbacks that’ll have you visiting your therapists again, let me remind you of what happened last time the Seahawks faced these guys. Russell Wilson was under siege all day long, getting sacked 7 times and basically being held in check all day long. Outside of that 80 yard TD pass to Golden Tate … Wilson had just 59 yards passing to the remainder of Seattle’s receivers.
With Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini out … it was the Robert Quinn and Chris Long show, as each of those guys beat the Hawks Offensive line like a group of African Drums, collecting 3 sacks apiece and tearing McQuistan and company to shreds.
And lest we forget, this Rams Front 4 did the exact same thing the last time they visited Century Link Field against a completely healthy Seahawks Offensive Line, sacking Russell Wilson 6 times in Week 17 last year.
Robert Quinn comes in to this game as the leading sack master in the NFL, sporting a jaw dropping 18 Sacks. Even with Okung and Giacomin back in the fold, Seattle has got to come up with some answers for Quinn and Chris Long (who has 7.5 Sacks) this time. Screen passes, quick trap plays, and all manner of quick hitting plays (something we’ve not seen a lot of this year) are time tested ways of taking advantage of an aggressive defensive front.
Coming in to that Week 8 Matchup, Russell Wilson was the most pressured QB in the league (nearly 50% of his drop back passes) according to Pro Football Focus. If Seattle can find a way to give Wilson time in the pocket to throw, then they have a real shot to rack up some numbers because that Rams secondary has been their Achilles Heel this year.
Teams have tested the Rams secondary at nearly the exact same rate as they have the Seahawks Legion of Boom ...
Seahawks … 494 Pass Attempts Against (7th Fewest)
Rams … 498 Pass Attempts Against (8th Fewest)
But unlike the Seahawks, their secondary has gleaned only 14 interceptions (tied for 17th) and has been fairly generous in many categories…
247.7 Pass Yds/Game Allowed (20th)
8.1 Yds/Pass Allowed (Tied 29th)
50 Passes of 20 Yards or More Allowed (Tied 17th)
68.3% Pass Comp. Allowed (32nd)
94.4 QB Rating Allowed (23rd)
The Rams secondary was affected early in the season by the loss of Free Safety T.J. McDonald (6’2” 217 Pounds), who was on IR. CB Cortland Finnegan (5’10” 179 Pounds), LB Will Witherspoon (6’1” 242 Pounds), and others were all slowed by injuries to one degree or another this year, so that affected the offense as a whole early on in the season. However, guys like McDonald and RCB Janoris Jenkins (5’10” 179 Pounds) [61 Tackles … 1 Sack … 1 TFL … 14 PD … 1 INT] have been playing much better of late. Jenkins ended up allowing Drew Brees to complete less than 50% of his passes against him when the Rams played the Saints 2 weeks ago. But at this point, it looks like McDonald may miss this game as well, as he missed Thursday and Friday’s practice with an illness and is listed as Questionable. Last time, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks receivers took advantage of some confusion on the part of the Rams secondary in order to complete some timely plays that were ultimately the difference in the game. If the Hawks are going to beat this team come Sunday, the Offensive Line has simply got to give Wilson time to find those gaps in the Rams secondary that have been there most of the season. If they allow Quinn, Long, and those guys to have another encore performance though, then this one likely becomes another nail-biter.
Bold Prediction …
It’s hard to get a real read on the psychology of this Rams team, as their season is officially over after Sunday’s game. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a lot for them to play for outside of things like personal pride, the fact that this is a division rival, that the team has a chance to finish at .500, and that jobs are potentially on the line for next season. That said, this is a Jeff Fisher team. Fisher has always been a real aggressive, fiery coach and his teams always emulate that same kind of grit and blood and guts tenacity. Because of that, I expect these guys to give the Seahawks a real run for their money on Sunday. In a nutshell, I see this game coming down to a battle of offensive lines. As discussed extensively above, I envision Jake Long’s absence looming large in this game, which will make it a real struggle for the Rams to get any kind of offense going. The only reason that the Rams were at all in it last time was that Zac Stacy had a big day because the Rams Offensive line was able to open up holes for him. This time with Long out and going in to a hostile environment, it’s quite conceivable that the Seahawks Front 7 does to Kellen Clemens what the Rams Front 7 did to Russell Wilson and the Hawks last time. On the other side, if Seahawks O-Line finds a way to give Wilson time and to neutralize Quinn’s effectiveness (particularly in the run game) … then this one has a chance to become ugly. Against this defense, I just don’t see that happening though. I’d look for this game to be close early and be a real battle between 2 good defenses. In the end however, I see the Hawks pulling away late in the 3rd and 4th quarters, as the Rams defense tires due to the struggles of the offense. The Rams haven’t won a game in Seattle since October 10, 2004 and I certainly don’t see this group being anywhere close to on par with the Greatest Show on Turf. The Seahawks finally win the NFC West and the #1 Seed in the playoffs in a hard fought and well earned victory.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 24
Rams 6
