What is Belichick going to take away?

[Tical21]

Belichick is known for taking the strongest facet of a team's offense away from them and make the team find other ways to beat them. What do you think he's going to try to take away?

My guess is that he is going to plan heavily for Marshawn, taking away the read-option in particular. My guess is they drop a safety down to close quickly on Wilson in any read-option look, and have Wilson and Marshawn accounted for at all times. I think they're going to say that they are absolutely not going to let the read option beat them. They may even commit the DE exclusively to Wilson, telling him to ignore Lynch. This will also take away the bootleg action we like to use to free Luke Willson on the crossing route. We typically eat this philosophy up, as Lynch hits a cutback to get into that vacated hole, that nobody else really hits that runs the read option. I think the Pats will have a plan for that though.

The whole week I've been thinking that this is going to be the major emphasis of the Pats. But today I got to thinking about what would happen if they instead committed to stopping the pass and Russell's feet. They could probably really shut down our passing game if they put emphasis on it. Would we have the patience to just keep pounding and pounding if they tried this? I think so. I just can't see the Pats coming into this game with any philosophy besides loading the box, playing man on the outside, and making Russell beat them from the pocket. Is that the same way you guys see it?

 

[Hawks46]

Their biggest strength is their CBs vs. our WRs. They can man up and erase our guys.

I don't know enough about them to know how good their LBers are in coverage, but our TE's are average at best, so that's not a strength to take away. With Willson's propensity to drop passes at key times, I can see Bellichik letting Willson do his thing until he proves he can beat us.

I read somewhere that the Pats are going to force the ball to Lynch inside the Tackles and make sure Wilson will not beat them on the outside. The basic flaw to this plan is that to do this they basically lose a defender in the box staying at home to make sure Wilson hands off the ball at the mesh point. The TE to that side can also wall that DE off as he's already behind the play and it's easy money. The Pats don't have the personnel to stop the run with 7 in the box. It also creates major issues if we line up in I formation and then go play action. Lynch out of the backfield would murder them, or Wilson rolls out and runs for a mile.

Basically, I got the impression that Bellichik thinks if he can limit Wilson's rushing and force Lynch inside, they have a plan (I'm guessing drop Chung in the box) to be able to contain Lynch if he's consistently getting the ball between the Tackles. The other problem with this is that Wilson typically won't run the RO keeper until the second half. At that point, we can adjust our RO plays, adjust our conventional offense, and get a better feel for what NE is doing on defense. Then we can completely change up and let Wilson keep it when guys relax. There's been plenty of teams that were vigilant in the 1st half about Wilson's keeper, but that DE/LB gets lax when he sees Lynch blowing by him for an entire half.

I also see us blowing huge holes with our run blocking OL and Tukuafu in the backfield. That's something that Patriots just can't match physically.

 

[Bprez3]

They have to deal with us

 

[BC-Hawk]

I've thought of them doing that as well which is what leads me to believe that we might see some of Lynch in the slot in this game. It's unconventional but everybody knows that we need Beast to touch the ball for this game to go our way and if they sellout to stop the run early on we're going to need to come up with creative ways for him to get the football and get his touches. Beast is an underrated receiver in my opinion and putting him in the slot and feeding him short passes that get him in space he'll be able to do what he does and once they finally adjust to take that away it should make it easier for us to line him in a more traditional role in the backfield allowing us to stay one step ahead of them and zig when they zag.

 

[mikeak]

Doesn't matter. RW short slants going to eat them up then beat them with a deep ball and when they respect that smash them in the mouth with running.

Or the other way around doesn't matter

 

[kearly]

The way I see it, there are four aspects of this matchup between Seattle's offense and the Patriots defense:

1. Lynch
2. Wilson as a runner
3. WRs
4. TEs and RBs as receivers

A truly dominant defense can stop all four at once at times during the game, but the Pats with their athletic limitations will probably only be able to stop two or three of them at a time. Something is always going to be wide open, and Seattle's effectiveness on offense especially the past couple months has been built around attacking the area that the defense leaves open.

My guess is that Seattle kills them with 1 and 4, and will do just enough in areas 2 and 3 to keep New England honest.

 

[Seahwkgal]

I think #4 is the key. In fact, TE's are NE's biggest weakness. I say our TEs will have a HUGE game. Just my 2cents.

 

[brimsalabim]

Their corners can shut down our receivers but who takes beast mode on wheel routes? He has proved an excellent receiver.

 

[bigskydoc]

What Kearly said.

As I posted in another thread; I see Lynch carrying the bulk of the offensive attack, but I think the game is won or lost on the hands of Willson. If he holds on to the ball when it is thrown to him, he has a big game and we win. If he has the dropsies, it may be a long day.

When we bring out the read option, I hope for the triple option variety as I think we can burn them with that pass. I am sure that even if BB has them focused on taking away the passing lanes, they will still have to key in on RW on the RO. If our O-line can stay disciplined and not go downfield, then we can pull this off for nice gains. I can see some nice passing lanes opening up when Russ sucks in the defense on the RO keep.

If I were NE, I would show a lot of blitz pressure packages and pull out of them at the snap. Russ still struggles with post-snap adjustment in this situation and he will go to his hot route. Show blitz, pull out, and hammer the receivers off the line. Russ has gotten a lot better about dealing with the delayed/ disguised and stunt blitzes over the course of the year, but you can still get him by showing blitz and pulling out of it.

I think BB is smart enough to look back over the last two years and realize trying to match strength for strength by stacking the box is the failed tactic used by most of our opponents. I would then ask myself, what can I do different?

Stopping Lynch has almost as much to do with luck as stacking the box. I can show a soft interior by not stacking the box, and let Lynch get his yards, but keep those runs in front of me and those gains short. Have the secondary crash in to stop the run after eliminating any passing attack. This keeps Seattle one dimensional. Make them beat me with the run. Let them grind it out with long drives, but stiffen up inside the 30. This keeps Wilson's passing attack out of rhythm, and Wilson needs to establish a rhythm to have a successful passing game. It's a tactic no one has really tried that I can remember.

This would be very much like what we did to Denver last year. Let Manning have his record setting day, but frustrate him with short gains. Those record setting stats don't get you the trophy.

It is so crazy, that it just might work.

- bsd

 

[Hass2Carlson]

They will try but they won't take away anything



I really need to change this username

 

[brimsalabim]

Belichick will take away 2 psi from each football....

 

[homerun1970]

A loss would be the appropriate answer. I don't see their defense being able to contain all the elements of our offense. I do see Browner getting baited into a large mistake before the game is over. The Pats fans seem to overlook the offense due to the wicked defense in the spotlight it's a mistake.

 

[hawksfanohio]

With Wilson's ability to extend plays, it will be very difficult for the Patriots to totally shut down the passing game. Wilson knows where Baldwin, Kearse and co. are going to be and they will bail them out. I think NE picks their poison but it won't matter. It's a bad matchup for their defense. This offense is perfectly set up to knock around NE's defense. If the gameplan is decent and Bevell is patient with the running game like he was in the 4th quarter against GB then the offense will be very effective.

 

[seedhawk]

I could be wrong but, I think we see more of the ML RT split back formation. We have only used it like 5 or 6 times all year, yet it could fit perfectly to stretch NE out as both our guys are good runners and perhaps even better receivers.

 

[Anonymous]

Belichick will take away second place in the tournament.

 

[CPHawk]

Why is everyone conceeding that Browner is a shut down corner? He's not! He was getting destroyed last year, and I'm sure our WR and coaches know his weakness. He's also a PI machine, and we'll be able to get 2 PI on him.

 

[Mick063]

The Patriots would create too many other vulnerabilities if they sold out 100% on stopping Lynch. The problem for them is they don't have enough horses to consistently stop Lynch using a base defense.

Belichick is no dummy and knows this. This is why I think Belichick really mixes things up in an attempt to not be predictable. Force Wilson and Unger to work on their pre snap reads.

It is up to Wilson to quickly recognize and take advantage of the opportunities that will be given.

 

[Tical21]

For some reason I can't put a finger on, relying on a TE with suspect hands to win a Super Bowl scares me a little bit.

 

[Scottemojo]

I was thinking something very similar to this, Tical. How does Bill take away Lynch without opening the defense to a lot of other evils? Taking away Lynch isn't the same as taking away the other team's best receiving threat, it requires 7 or 8 defenders and opens them up to play action.

As far as Willson, yeah, he has stone hands, but he is part of the plan. Last year in the SB on successive plays he had a drop and a nice first down, they are going to use him. Passes to tight ends is one of the things the Pats give away, we have to use that tool.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

For some reason I can't put a finger on, relying on a TE with suspect hands to win a Super Bowl scares me a little bit.

I agree with you but it will only take 1-2 long catches to completely tilt the game into the Seahawks favor.