I know some of you don't like metrics, but since I'm a massive nerd, I'm gonna indulge a bit.
According to metrics that analyze how a team plays overall the Sounders are predicted to have about 32 points thus far, which would put them in 6th place on the table. So we must ask, why are the Sounders sitting on just 24 points.
The answer is simple. The metrics don't accurately weigh and account for penalties and errors that lead to goals, outside of the normal run of play.
Why is this important? Well, the Sounders are a playoff team if you take out things that are relatively unpredictable, such as Brad Evan's miscommunication leading to goals, Tyler Miller's fluky error that lead to a goal, and the complete bullshit penalties / red cards through out the season.
You might be thinking "well that sh*t happened" and you are right, which is why I'm not going to argue that. However, what this does prove is that before Lodeiro came into play, the Sounders were roughly an average team, that because of misfortune were performing like a bad team.
In 2012 the Seahawks went through something similar. In week 8 they fell to 4-4, but the metrics showed them as one of the top 5 teams in the NFL, mostly because of stellar defense. Everyone knew the team was talented, the metrics showed that, but a struggling offense stifled their ability to win. So what changed? Seattle started implementing the read option, defenses were unprepared, and didn't have enough information to adequately slow down the Hawks offense. This lead to one of the best teams in NFL history. If I remember correctly those Seahawk's had one of the 3 best weighted DVOA scores in NFL history, from week 8 on.
How does that relate to the Sounders? Lodeiro coming in is already having a similar affect as the read option. We saw Orlando try a multitude of things to stop Lodeiro and it killed them. They tried suffocating Lodeiro centrally which gave Dempsey space, and opened up the wings, which lead to Mears assist and Dempsey's goal. They tried marking Lodeiro out of the game, and played a high line to deal with the space and speed, that that gives to Morris (which is what LA did) and it worked, until Morris started passing to Dempsey who sat in the pockets opened up by the marking of Lodeiro and the line now chasing Morris.
As it stands teams don't have enough information to adequately defend against Lodeiro, that doesn't mean they won't figure him out, but right now Seattle is in a bit of an updraft.
This gets even better for the Sounders optimists, like myself.
Seattle is currently middle of the pack in terms of goals allowed (29). Most of those goals come from through balls and aerial duels, almost half of those goals come from the left side, and most of the aerial goals are scored against Mears / Jones. Mears is actually a net positive defensively, because of his one v one skills (this is contrary to what I thought, based on film). Jones is actually pretty good in the air, but he struggles in tracking and decision making (which is why most of the goals come from his side).
This all circles back to one man... Roman Torres. Roman Torres was the best defender in the 2015 Gold Cup at winning aerial duels, and intercepting. It's hard to find data from the 2015 Gold Cup, but doing a decent amount of digging, Roman averaged 4 interceptions per 90 (that's overestimated and it is more than likely around 3.5-3.8, but I can't find data for every game) For perspective Chad Marshall and Brad Evans are top 10 in MLS with 3.4 interceptions per 90. If Roman Torres can live up to 80% of what he's been in the past he'll be right in line with Marshall as one of the top 10 CBs in the league.
Because of Jones weakness defensively, If Seattle moves Brad Evans to LB, and plays him in someways as CB in a 3 man line to limit his weakness going forward in an unnatural position. Seattle's defense at least analytically speaking would be #1 in the league. It would also be flexible, that in a situation where you need utility, you can go to a 3 man back line, move Evans to the right and put Jones in as a league average winger, with defensive tendencies.
WHAT DOES ALL THE BS MEAN!
If Lodeiro can keep up his pace, and teams continue to struggle to contain him. If Roman Torres can come in from injury and contribute to close to what he's been most of his career, and you flex Evans to LB to cover the deficiencies of Jones. The Sounders adjusted PPG average for the remainder of the Season would be 2.2 PPG, which would put Seattle at 50 points for the year. It would also make the Sounders the DVOA equivalent of the 2012 Seahawks. They'd sit around 1.64 goals per game, and .89 goals allowed, which would be second only to the LA Galaxy who currently sit at around 1.68 goals per game, and 1.0 goals allowed.
I know numbers very rarely play out how they do on paper in professional sports, but if the Sounders can even remotely live up to their projections... we may be in for one of the wildest rides in Seattle sports history.
or the team will fall off a cliff lol, who really knows.
