Seattle Sounders 2016 season thread

[knownone]

"According to metrics that analyze how a team plays overall (what metrics are those?) the Sounders are predicted to have about 32 points thus far, which would put them in 6th place on the table. So we must ask, why are the Sounders sitting on just 24 points.

The metrics used are based on PDO and exGR, but modified with other parameters that also show statistically significant predictive measures on the outcome of games. I will go into this further in it's own separate post (since this one is huge) in the coming days, as the formula used later is my own.

"The answer is simple. The metrics don't accurately weigh (So they are useless) and account for penalties and errors that lead to goals (there are plenty of metrics that measure this by the way) , outside of the normal run of play. (actual important facets of a soccer game)

Every single mathematical formulation has it’s advantages and disadvantages. Quantum Mechanics is the reason we have computers and the internet, but it can’t accurately explain gravity, does that make it useless? Also the post you are responding to happens to use metrics that explain errors that lead to goals I was just trying to explain things in a simple, easy to follow manner.

So, metrics are good, but also inaccurate? Is that just for the Sounders?

Those metrics include all teams. So 6th place is relative to the league as a whole. Warren Buffet is a hell of an investor, but he’s not accurate 100% of the time. This is true for any form of metric as well, it's never going to be show the entire picture, that is why we make adjustments over time, and make educated guesses based on those adjustments.

Normal run of play is an ambiguous statement and cannot even be truly defined in a way that can be extrapolated for purposes of hypothesizing a future. (ie, what's normal run of play for Leicester is far different than Bayern, which is much different than Real Madrid). Soccer doesn't work that way.

Normal run of play is my own personal definition. I thought I explained it, but it accounts for everything that happens on the soccer field, except penalties that the league has come out and said shouldn’t have been called, and errors. So the normal run of play includes Bayern and Madrid, so long as they are playing soccer on a field for at least 90 minutes.

If you want to do a deep dive on metrics and soccer its important to understand what you're looking for. Barcelona held 69% possession and completed 300 more passes than Liverpool on Saturday. They lost 4-0. Barcelona outshot Liverpool 13-7. All 4 of Liverpool goals took a total of 10 passes (combined). Barcelona's keepers played the ball more than Suarez. Sadio Mane won more tackles on the day than the CM, Emre Can. Poor day by Can? Effective use of the high press by Liverpool? All depends on where the tackles are made. In this game, Mane made two tackles that led directly to goals. There are a number of factors to look into in that, to analyze and forge a move forward. However, none would allow either team to determine in advance the results of the next match (unless it was against each other).

This example is great analyses, but statistically it’s an outlier (one game), which is why it has zero predictive potential. You seem to be using “metrics” as a term for stats, when I’m using metrics as a system of measurement, there is no system behind what you are explaining, even though they are technically metrics. Make sense?

Comparing them to an NFL team is also a misunderstanding of how metrics are used in the sport. Football is played in 3 phases by 3 completely different teams (defense, offense, special teams). Soccer is not. It is a bit more intricate in its ebbs and flows, with players having to perform at multiple jobs to effect a positive day. Ibra had only received the ball in the attacking 3rd 8 times before he nodded home the winner against Leicester. Good game? I've seen that argued on here it would be. But I'm sure Mourinho will be making some adjustments to make sure that number triples by the Bournemouth game.

This explanation is a misunderstanding of what an analogy is. The comparison was to get people excited about Lodeiro, it wasn’t meant to be a comparison between the advanced metrics of both sports

I hope this isn't taken in a negative way, because I do enjoy debating some what of a niche topic like Soccer metrics. Sgt. Largent nailed it when he said "tough crowd" you are being incredibly harsh, I used available statistics and advanced metrics and modified them to create my own formulas to predict outcomes in MLS, because I enjoy being a fan and sharing my work with others. Sgt. Largent nailed it again when he said they are "theories" they are. I included a disclaimer because nothing is 100% predictive and even metrics are skewed by opinion, and at the end of the day my theory is still an opinion.

However...

My predictions have the Sounders averaging about 1.8 PPG since Lodeiro, if they keep trotting out the same line up, and 2.2 PPG if they use my super fan line up. Currently they are averaging 2.0 PPG since adding Lodeiro.

Your most recent prediction on the state of the Sounders?

Suggesting this dumpster fire of a roster is somehow filled with talent when you can clearly see by results they are not is a perception i also don't understand.

So basically, you are nit picking my work, which is proving far more accurate than your own assumptions, on the state of the Sounders.

It's easy to criticize...

 

[knownone]

I won't litter the thread with another analysis on how to use metrics and statistics in soccer. You're choosing to use a small metric and are applying it incorrectly. I also suggested that if you want a deeper dive into the use of statistics and this sport you could, as you were only scratching the surface. I'll say this, in working with these types of statistics for a few years now, they are never used to predict outcome of games. If you think they should you're not applying them correctly. Statistical analysis in soccer is used for very specific reasons (as stated in the many parts of my post you ignored). It's not worth another very long post that you'll only extract small portions to comment on. It's essentially what you're doing with statistical analysis anyways.

My last prediction was that Lodeiro was a revelation. Your "analysis" is more true since the one game that was played since your post? That logic seems familiar.

Criticism isn't easy when it's constructive. Trying to push the discussion into where it could go was probably not worth the trouble. We would assume critique on the main forum for a post like yours. Soccer thread shouldn't be any different. Not trying to be harsh at all. I coach soccer for a pretty good living. This isn't a debate. It's a conversation. View it as such and maybe you get something out of it. I feel like you skipped over slot just to get to points you could debate. That's boring..

I work as researcher for an investment firm, one of my jobs is to create advanced analytics to find value in companies that appear to have none. You telling me I am using and applying things incorrectly tells me absolutely nothing, especially when you don't know the ins and outs of the formulas and process I am using.

(Goals For / Shots For) + ( 1 – (Goals Against / Shots Against) ) * 1000
Is widely accepted in the soccer analytics world as a great indicator of how teams historically perform, and is the bedrock of the formula I used to judge MLS as a whole. On top of that, I created a model that was adjustable, so I could input different parameters to affect multiple aspects of what takes place in a game. The derivation is based on Poisson distribution, which gives us the probability of multiple events occurring in a fixed time (a game). This applied with statistics that you deem (non predictive) are used to form a model, that can some what accurately predict league tables using historical data. Once you can reliably predict what has already happened using historical data, you can then adjust different parameters to make future projections.

So you telling me "your only scratching the surface" means very little to me, and your analysis of the situation, strikes me more as an internet know it all, than someone who actually understands the process of using statistics in analytic models.

My "analysis" dates back to June, where I was one of the few who stayed positive insisting that this team had talent, while you insisted during that same time they did not. Go back and read some of those posts, I've been consistent, and open to being wrong, and admitted when I was (see Nelson Valdez). I mean no disrespect, but I don't see you owning your own words from just 3 weeks ago.

I can respect the fact that you coach the sport, but that has very little baring on the world I live and work in. I played the sport for 9 years, but I am aware of the fact that I don't know everything, perhaps you should consider that you do not know everything as well.

I work 60 hours a week, and don't have time to explain everything. So no I did not skip over anything, if you want a response, tell me which topic you want a response to, and I'll gladly write one.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Buzzing for Sundays game. A win would have us right back in it mostly.

A loss is unthinkable and horrible, especially against them and completely throws a spanner in our efforts to revive the season.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Buzzing for Sundays game. A win would have us right back in it mostly.

A loss is unthinkable and horrible, especially against them and completely throws a spanner in our efforts to revive the season.

Yeah this is not a must win, but it's close. Got the hated rival who's above you in the standings at home........a point is not the end of the world, but IMO we need all three to keep the momentum going and jump right back in the mix with a little room for a hiccup match down the stretch.

 

[knownone]

Buzzing for Sundays game. A win would have us right back in it mostly.

A loss is unthinkable and horrible, especially against them and completely throws a spanner in our efforts to revive the season.

Yeah this is not a must win, but it's close. Got the hated rival who's above you in the standings at home........a point is not the end of the world, but IMO we need all three to keep the momentum going and jump right back in the mix with a little room for a hiccup match down the stretch.

100% with you guys on this. Portland hasn't won a game on the road all year, they've lost 3 of 4, and they are coming into our house, against a team with momentum. If Seattle is for real, they should win this decisively, a draw will feel like a loss, but as you said it's not the end of the world.

One thing that concerns me is San Jose, we don't have any games in hand on them, and they are 4 points up on the table, and unbeaten in their last 4 games.
Luckily we have a game coming up, but it's in San Jose, where we always seem to struggle.

 

[knownone]

Sounder at Heart posted a really cool, in depth article yesterday, using a similar model to what I used (we used the same source). Along with some pretty cool use of the Pythagorean Method. They actually have the Sounders doing better than I do at 38.8 points (35 for me), Cool stuff if you're a numbers nerd

More reasons to get hyped for Sunday!

Again, we can also use the Pythagorean method to analyze this. Using the Sounders xGD - penalties, the formula expects them to be at 38.8 points instead of their current 27 points.

The Seattle Sounders are trending up, both the points and xG are showing it. No matter how we separate the data, it's showing that Seattle should have earned 16 points in their past 7. With the newly instilled confidence under coach Schmetzer and the aggressive attacking since his appointment, the playoffs are in reach. The Sounders were never a bad team, merely an average team on the wrong side of fortune. But now they're a good team creating plenty of chances and scoring goals. As the players continue to grow together and trust in the abilities of their teammates, who knows what these next few months have in store.

http://www.sounderatheart.com/2016/...ed-goals-mls-playoffs-banana-cream-pie-recipe

 

[knownone]

Portland is crowding the middle and hacking Lodeiro. They are forcing us to play wide and banking on their ability to beat us in the air. We need pace on the wings... I'd like to see us swap Valdez for Ivanschitz, move Valdez up top and Morris out wide, we need to stretch them out, moving Morris wide will create space for Jones on the overlap.

 

[SeatownJay]

The match went from a nailbiter to a blowout in the last 10 minutes.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Yeeessss!

We severely rode our luck between jones and evans making poor decisions, frei bailing us out and the portland striker having an awful night.

Guessing jones gets suspended for the dive. Looking forward to torres next week.

On the flip side Morris and Dempsey both missed sitters and Portland should have had 10 men.

Was nervy till the 3rd went in. Roldan is ao i.proved under Schmetzer. Though ivanschitz had a poor game.

Take care of business against houston and we are back in business. Beat portland next week for security and pride.

Also our tifo was super lame.

 

[knownone]

Great win! Roldan MoTM.

Allen Kelly, the referee was awful. He almost gave Portland 2 goals. He was inconsistent, he didn't punish players for repeat offenses, even after giving warnings. He gave Ivanschitz a yellow for an accidental elbow, but didn't give Andriuskevicius a yellow for a similar blow to the face (which by rule it should have been). He still called 14 fouls on Portland, but that number should have been closer to 25, yet some how Portland only had 1 yellow on the game. Embarrassing performance for a man who helps teach at PRO, the USA referee organization, and a guy who won MLS Ref of the year last year.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Pretty sure that ref cost us a game with a mistake earlier in the season. As I said we rode our luck tonight at points but there were a number of games earlier in the year where we were really unlucky.

Still maintain that if we make the play offs and torres comes back as the player he was and maybe beaker can contribute then we will win the whole thing. The team feels together and inspired now and on our game we are better than most teams. Plus Sigi isnt coach so hopefully no choke jobs.

Still think we are suspect at the back which needs fixed.

 

[hawkfan68]

Great game yesterday. Nice to get 3pts at home against a rival. Since Lodeiro joined the Sounders are 4-0. The Sounders have played a couple of games less than many of the teams they are competing with for a playoff spot so that may come into play. Things were very dim a few weeks back now they are looking quite a bit brighter - Lodeiro effect.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Great game yesterday. Nice to get 3pts at home against a rival. Since Lodeiro joined the Sounders are 4-0. The Sounders have played a couple of games less than many of the teams they are competing with for a playoff spot so that may come into play. Things were very dim a few weeks back now they are looking quite a bit brighter - Lodeiro effect.

Good part is Lodeiro didn't even have a very good match........................this season just got interesting in a hurry.

Bad part is our backline is still a mess, too many poor clears, whiffs and mistakes. Roman Torres where are you!

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Great game yesterday. Nice to get 3pts at home against a rival. Since Lodeiro joined the Sounders are 4-0. The Sounders have played a couple of games less than many of the teams they are competing with for a playoff spot so that may come into play. Things were very dim a few weeks back now they are looking quite a bit brighter - Lodeiro effect.

It's not just Lodeiro though who wasn't as influential yesterday. Guys like Roldan have really stepped up (something I would never have predicted earlier in the year), Ozzy and Dempsey look better as well. That's got to be credited on Schmetzer playing Roldan deeper and i'm guessing there may have been something on Dempsey and Sigi butting heads a lot. It also felt Sigi was forcing in guys like Kovar who looked like he wasn't quite ready for this level.

If Morris can improve his left foot in the off season (and I guess his finishing) he could be a great player with experience. His pace is frightening and puts him in great positions but right now his left foot is awful.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Great game yesterday. Nice to get 3pts at home against a rival. Since Lodeiro joined the Sounders are 4-0. The Sounders have played a couple of games less than many of the teams they are competing with for a playoff spot so that may come into play. Things were very dim a few weeks back now they are looking quite a bit brighter - Lodeiro effect.

Good part is Lodeiro didn't even have a very good match........................this season just got interesting in a hurry.

Bad part is our backline is still a mess, too many poor clears, whiffs and mistakes. Roman Torres where are you!

Talk he'll be back for Sunday. Don't know if I want to throw him into such a big game on his return though.

Joevin Jones frustrates me. He is great going forward but he really gets caught out/exposed a lot with his defending. I think Mears has improved a bit in the last few weeks. Would maybe try Evans at LB and push Jones further forward in certain games once Torres is back.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Great game yesterday. Nice to get 3pts at home against a rival. Since Lodeiro joined the Sounders are 4-0. The Sounders have played a couple of games less than many of the teams they are competing with for a playoff spot so that may come into play. Things were very dim a few weeks back now they are looking quite a bit brighter - Lodeiro effect.

Good part is Lodeiro didn't even have a very good match........................this season just got interesting in a hurry.

Bad part is our backline is still a mess, too many poor clears, whiffs and mistakes. Roman Torres where are you!

Talk he'll be back for Sunday. Don't know if I want to throw him into such a big game on his return though.

Joevin Jones frustrates me. He is great going forward but he really gets caught out/exposed a lot with his defending. I think Mears has improved a bit in the last few weeks. Would maybe try Evans at LB and push Jones further forward in certain games once Torres is back.

It's obvious that they're trying to develop Jones into a Yedlin type back.........which is fine, he has the upside to be a very good MLS defender. Just going to have to live through the growing pains and inexperience, but I love Jone's upside and speed.

I get much more pissed off at Evans and even Ivanschitz, do they EVER make a good pass? Horrific vision and decision making.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

I've maintained all season that Evans is a RB/Midfielder playing CB and overall is a below average CB due to that. Not his fault but i'd only play him there in a crisis. He's arguably been better than Traore and Hurtado but that's not saying much.

Ivanshitz has been disappointing. He'll have the odd game where he is incredibly productive and his crossing can be great at times but then you get games like last night where he wasn't influential in the slightest. Him being subbed for Friberg last night was the rest decision. Friberg is squad player quality but suits physical games like last night.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Ivanshitz has been disappointing. He'll have the odd game where he is incredibly productive and his crossing can be great at times but then you get games like last night where he wasn't influential in the slightest. Him being subbed for Friberg last night was the rest decision. Friberg is squad player quality but suits physical games like last night.

Ivanschitz and Friberg are basically the same player to me, just high energy work rate guys that run around like a chicken with their head's cut off, never adding quality to either side of the pitch.

Hell, put Flaco in there, at least he has a high soccer IQ and has some quality to his touches..........or at least he did. I have no idea anymore because we've barely seen him on the pitch.

Either way Ivanshitz drives me crazy. I guess he's decent for a change up taking corners and set pieces. But that's about it.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

Ivanshitz has been disappointing. He'll have the odd game where he is incredibly productive and his crossing can be great at times but then you get games like last night where he wasn't influential in the slightest. Him being subbed for Friberg last night was the rest decision. Friberg is squad player quality but suits physical games like last night.

Ivanschitz and Friberg are basically the same player to me, just high energy work rate guys that run around like a chicken with their head's cut off, never adding quality to either side of the pitch.

Hell, put Flaco in there, at least he has a high soccer IQ and has some quality to his touches..........or at least he did. I have no idea anymore because we've barely seen him on the pitch.

Either way Ivanshitz drives me crazy. I guess he's decent for a change up taking corners and set pieces. But that's about it.

He was termed the 'Austrian Beckham' when we signed him and in some games he has had great crosses and free kicks but he isn't in the same league as Beckham.

I'm intrigued to see Flacco. He came on as a sub and almost scored in his first game back. If he could remotely be the same player he was in 2011 the Sounders have won a watch. I'm guessing they are trying to get him more match fit and throw him in for when we get injuries or have tired players...or he was a last gasp Sigi signing and Schmetzer doesn't rate him?

 

[knownone]

Woah! I've felt that Ivanschitz has been great! He's not flashy or the best defender, but his positioning is solid, his service is amazing, and he's great at making late runs into the box.

He leads the team in assists with 6, and he has 2 goals. For a guy who is making 250,000 a year, that's pretty damn good production.

Despite Brads occasional bone headedness, he grades out as an above average CB. I agree with Glasgow, he looks like a midfielder playing CB, but he's better than he gets credit for... despite how utterly frustrating it is to see him flailing one on one in the box ><