Question for the Geno apologists

[pittpnthrs]

Panthers yes
Giants yes
Raiders yes
Titans yes
Browns would, but not sure if they have room
Steelers yes (unless Fields is superman rest of the year)

I think that's actually quite a decent potential market for a free agent QB

I disagree with some of this, not all.

Panthers - No (If Bryce Young doesn't improve in a year or so after sitting and learning the system, they'll just draft another QB again as they'll have a top 5 pick. They will just roll with a veteran backup on the cheap until then)

Giants - No (Jones just beat Geno and is younger. The trade off doesn't make sense)

Raiders - Sure, they're in QB purgatory so why not.

Titans - No (Levis is getting paid nothing and they are so far away from competing that it wouldn't make sense)

Browns - No (Not saying they wouldn't like to, but they are screwed right now with Watson)

Steelers - No (They are either in a draft a young QB soon or give a FA big money that will be there for awhile if they think they can compete. Geno doesnt fit the bill)

Nothing against Geno, but I think the FA market is going to be tough for him because of his age. Maybe he'll get lucky and get that last big payday, but I doubt it.

 

[NoGain]

Panthers yes
Giants yes
Raiders yes
Titans yes
Browns would, but not sure if they have room
Steelers yes (unless Fields is superman rest of the year)

I think that's actually quite a decent potential market for a free agent QB

You're pretty much in agreement with me about the teams that might be looking for a QB and could make it possible (Panthers, Giants Raiders, Titans) with the addition of the Steelers. The Browns aren't on the list because they aren't paying 90 million dollars on a 35 year old QB whose never won a playoff game, and what looks like to be a washed up QB. It's just financially unfeasible and ludicrous.

I'm not a CAP/contract expert, but any team that trades for Geno next offseason is going to be faced with what the Hawks are faced with now, having to extend his contact, or have a disgruntled QB on their hands who feels he's underpaid. So they'd be paying up and extending his contract when he'll be a 36 year old QB in 2026.

But let's look at these teams. Sure, the Giants would like a QB upgrade, but they just signed Daniel Jones to a mega extension. I just don't see how they justify extending Geno beyond 2025 for big bucks when they're on the hook for Jones' contract. Besides, bringing in Geno to solve their QB issues is not going to be a pleasant experience with Giant fans or the NY media.

Panthers? They're awful, which means they will probably take another swing at a QB in the draft. If they do take another shot in the draft (good guess they will), they're not going to want this new QB to sit on the bench for more than a year, are they? So extending Geno with a big contract doesn't make much sense to me. Why not just stick with a cheaper Dalton or get some other castoff like Flacco to hold the fort?

Raiders? I suppose anything's possible, but I just don't see it. They'll be looking in the draft for a QBOTF on a rookie contract, it seems to me.

Titans? Might make the most sense if they give up on Levis. I don't know.

Steelers? Again, anything's possible, but I just don't see it unless Geno's extension is a team friendly one given that he'll be 36 years old when his extension kicks in. Why not just stay with the Hawks on a team friendly deal?

I just don't see the market for a QB who will turn 36 years old when his extension kicks in, unless it's a team friendly deal. I could be wrong, but just don't see it. I think there's a good reason why the Hawks aren't rushing to give him a big extension.

 

[Rat]

Jordan Love is a lot better than Geno, if that wasn't obvious already. Hope we can find ours soon.

 

[DarkVictory23]

I disagree with some of this, not all.

Panthers - No (If Bryce Young doesn't improve in a year or so after sitting and learning the system, they'll just draft another QB again as they'll have a top 5 pick. They will just roll with a veteran backup on the cheap until then)

Giants - No (Jones just beat Geno and is younger. The trade off doesn't make sense)

Raiders - Sure, they're in QB purgatory so why not.

Titans - No (Levis is getting paid nothing and they are so far away from competing that it wouldn't make sense)

Browns - No (Not saying they wouldn't like to, but they are screwed right now with Watson)

Steelers - No (They are either in a draft a young QB soon or give a FA big money that will be there for awhile if they think they can compete. Geno doesnt fit the bill)

Nothing against Geno, but I think the FA market is going to be tough for him because of his age. Maybe he'll get lucky and get that last big payday, but I doubt it.

Agree on the bolded. It's not just about how good or not Geno is as a QB.

Steelers I do think would be interested, Raiders as well. Both teams are fringe teams that their weakest spots are the QB, so a guy like Geno makes sense for them. A lot of the other teams that fit that description either have a rookie they are committed to or a big contract they can't easily dump.

That said, it only takes 1 (or in this case 2) additional teams to give Geno's agent some leverage. The biggest thing for Geno to get a better contract now will be to 1) Not play like he did against the Niners and 2) Have the Seahawks prove they either are (or are close to being) contenders who want to hold onto their QB.

 

[knownone]

The market wasn’t crazy for him before and it wouldn’t be this time around either as he’s even older and less productiv(so far) but the teams Mael listed I think would have to be at least a little interested. Most of those aren’t win now teams so he would be a plan B to the draft.

How do you know the market wasn't crazy for him? He never hit the open market. He signed his extension two weeks before free agency.

If Geno keeps playing at this level, he won't have any issue getting a contract on the open market. The question is where his valuation will fall. He's currently worth between 35 and 45 million.

 

[Ozzy]

If continues putting up 1 pick and 1 touchdown numbers at his age there is zero chance he’s getting 45 million from anyone.

There was rumors from insiders saying he wasn’t going to get as much as he though hence the contract Seattle signed him to at a bargain.

A QB in his mid 30’s with 17/17 numbers isn’t getting 45 million. Now he’s capable of playing better and if I was betting he great improves and the offense as a whole settles in.

 

[JayhawkMike]

There will also be other QBs on the market. RW for instance. Right?

 

[Ozzy]

Here’s to hoping Geno lights it up the rest of the way and we keep him because he’s a playoff QB and we can focus on other areas.

 

[knownone]

If continues putting up 1 pick and 1 touchdown numbers at his age there is zero chance he’s getting 45 million from anyone.

There was rumors from insiders saying he wasn’t going to get as much as he though hence the contract Seattle signed him to at a bargain.

A QB in his mid 30’s with 17/17 numbers isn’t getting 45 million. Now he’s capable of playing better and if I was betting he great improves and the offense as a whole settles in.

Source on these insiders? I don't think that's accurate at all. Geno got roughly what was expected. He took a bit less in guarantees, but the contract valuation is pretty much spot on. (Also, there's a reply button)

Similarly, in the spirit of making silly projections. If Geno keeps averaging 300 yards per game and ends up with 5000, he'll probably get more than 45M.

 

[Ozzy]

Source on these insiders? I don't think that's accurate at all. Geno got roughly what was expected. He took a bit less in guarantees, but the contract valuation is pretty much spot on. (Also, there's a reply button)

Similarly, in the spirit of making silly projections. If Geno keeps averaging 300 yards per game and ends up with 5000, he'll probably get more than 45M.

Why is anyone who disagrees with you silly? Averaging 1 touchdown and 1 interception a game isn’t generally great. He’s avg 300 yards a game because they’re throwing so often, not stats that generate a payday. But maybe you’re right and he gets 50 million. If a guy had 17 picks, 17 touchdowns, 5,000 yards and is 18th in passer rating at this age he’s not getting north of 45 million. But again, I seriously doubt it though so let’s revisit this and if you’re right you can gloat all you want

I don’t understand the reply button comment as I’m tasking to everyone?

For the record I don’t think he finishes with that sort of stat line and will get much better but I still don’t think he gets 45 million.

 

[NoGain]

If someone pays Geno 45 million, it better not be us. We've got enough short term CAP problems. I think people are overrating the market for a QB who will be 36 when his extension kicks in who's never won a playoff game. I'm not a Geno hater at all. I just don't see the market out there for him that some seem to do for various different reasons.

There's some lesser amount I'd be willing to pay to retain him a bit longer until we get some kind of younger talent in the fold to potentially take his place, preferably on a rookie contract.

I could be wrong, but I'd have to see it.

 

[Seahawks48]

SF was def his worst game of the year but I’m still a Geno believer. He ain’t the problem. Funny enough, I’m more of a believer this year than 2022 & 2023.

He’s playing like an MVP candidate in Detroit game - but if you look at the stats - you just see 1 TD, 1 INT. Meh. But watching that game - you know how damn talented he is.

His 6 picks this year
__________
Denver - probably should have held onto the ball but also got hit in half a second, right as he threw it. Should have had more time.

Miami - Charb bobbled the ball into the air and it got picked off. Could have been a little better throw to make it an easier catch for Charb but if he had better hands, that doesn’t happen. And throwing it quick makes sense when you’re in your own end zone - especially given that we got two safeties just two weeks prior against Denver .

Miami - Defensive lineman bats ball at line of scrimmage and it goes flying 20 feet into the air, no fault to Geno there - just bad luck

Detroit - Pressing ball into double coverage when down two scores with a minute left. No fault to him here, was a throw away game at that point, he played amazing himself that night. I’m sure if it was a one-score game, he wouldn’t have thrown that.

SF - probably should have thrown the ball away instead of throwing to Lockett but he has pressure in .5 seconds. He has a little more time and I bet that’s complete.

SF - DK drifts up the field, totally surprising Geno. We would have taken lead if we scored on that drive, could’ve won the game. SF would’ve scored again but it could essentially be whoever has the ball last wins.
_______
His TD/INT ratio SUCKS this year - but watching him and not just the box score, I’m damn happy he’s our QB. I just don’t see those WTF picks outside of the Detroit one…but we were down two scores with a minute left, so I get it. I think it’s ***potentially*** one of the best QB seasons in Seahawks history if he had more time to throw. This is honestly one of the worst O-Lines I’ve seen the Seahawks put out there and that’s saying something.

 

[knownone]

Why is anyone who disagrees with you silly? Averaging 1 touchdown and 1 interception a game isn’t generally great. He’s avg 300 yards a game because they’re throwing so often, not stats that generate a payday. But maybe you’re right and he gets 50 million. If a guy had 17 picks, 17 touchdowns, 5,000 yards and is 18th in passer rating at this age he’s not getting north of 45 million. But again, I seriously doubt it though so let’s revisit this and if you’re right you can gloat all you want

I don’t understand the reply button comment as I’m tasking to everyone?

For the record I don’t think he finishes with that sort of stat line and will get much better but I still don’t think he gets 45 million.

I apologize. That comment came across as more condescending than I intended. I meant that projecting Geno's current TD/INT ratio over a season and using that projection to gauge his contract value was silly. Still, in the interest of fairness, you routinely call opinions you disagree with goofy. As for replies, you responded to a question I asked you. Wouldn't it make sense to answer that question in a reply?

I didn't say he'd get 45M. I said he's worth between 35M and 45M. The ceiling is set by Kirk Cousins, who is two years older and got 50M coming off an Achilles injury. He played on a team with the best receiver in football and a top-five O-line. The floor is Baker Mayfield's contract of 33M, a similar supporting cast of Cousins, but he's less proven, and his contract is more incentive-laden (It's closer to 38M with incentives). Unless Geno's performance craters or skyrockets, his market is between 35M and 45M.

If you want my bonafides, here's me roughly predicting Geno's last contract value seven months before he got it.

Brock's estimation is way off.

If Geno continues at his current pace, he's getting significantly more than 15m/year. The current value for a QB, in that scenario, is roughly 25m/year. His agent will likely use Tannehill's contract (29.5m/year) as a benchmark, and Geno's track record will likely drive the overall price down. The question is whether a market will develop for Geno and whether Seattle is willing to risk losing him.

Here's me predicting the structure and total valuation within five million, six months before Seattle extended him. The only thing I didn't foresee was Geno losing so much in guarantees in favor of incentives.

It's unlikely we'll get Geno for anything less than 30m per year, and it's unrealistic to expect him to entertain those offers. So the likely scenario is he gets a fully guaranteed first season with incentives that provide more guarantees based on games played/performance—something like a three-year deal at 110m with 65m fully guaranteed. Essentially, Geno gets top-10 QB money and some long-term security, and the team has a relatively cheap one-year out if he regresses.

The only caveat is that I'd want a two-year deal if I were Geno and his agent. If he genuinely believes he's one of the better QBs in the league, then the long-term play is a shorter prove-it contract.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Similarly, in the spirit of making silly projections. If Geno keeps averaging 300 yards per game and ends up with 5000, he'll probably get more than 45M.

If Geno averages those numbers, that's going to mean the team is awful and he'll have 150 or more passing attempts than any other NFL QB in the league. Many other categories will be looked at rather than yardage when thinking about signing a mid 30's QB to a contract. No way in hell he signs with another team for more than 45M in the future.

 

[Ozzy]

I apologize. That comment came across as more condescending than I intended. I meant that projecting Geno's current TD/INT ratio over a season and using that projection to gauge his contract value was silly. Still, in the interest of fairness, you routinely call opinions you disagree with goofy. As for replies, you responded to a question I asked you. Wouldn't it make sense to answer that question in a reply?

I didn't say he'd get 45M. I said he's worth between 35M and 45M. The ceiling is set by Kirk Cousins, who is two years older and got 50M coming off an Achilles injury. He played on a team with the best receiver in football and a top-five O-line. The floor is Baker Mayfield's contract of 33M, a similar supporting cast of Cousins, but he's less proven, and his contract is more incentive-laden (It's closer to 38M with incentives). Unless Geno's performance craters or skyrockets, his market is between 35M and 45M.

If you want my bonafides, here's me roughly predicting Geno's last contract value seven months before he got it.

Here's me predicting the structure and total valuation within five million, six months before Seattle extended him. The only thing I didn't foresee was Geno losing so much in guarantees in favor of incentives.

Now I wouldn’t say routinely. There are a couple of posters who post the same stuff routinely and it gets tiresome.And while I need to do better I’m not the only one, you’ve gotten into it with more than one poster as well for similar actions. We can all do a little better in this regard. Maybe we get bored in between games lol? Some people almost make this stuff personal. If you are even slightly critical of Geno you’re a Geno hater(and yes this works both ways of course) which is goofy, silly, ridiculous etc….the wording fits. I’m pretty fair of Geno and give him credit when deserved and I can also criticize him when needed too. He’s been a godsend for Seattle coming off of Wilson which almost no one saw coming. We were/are lucky to have him as a lot of teams don’t have that luxury.

On my way to work but when I settle in I want to revisit the Baker(who’s better than Geno) and Cousins situations. I hate mondays after a week of vacation but I’ll find some time

 

[Maelstrom787]

SF was def his worst game of the year but I’m still a Geno believer. He ain’t the problem. Funny enough, I’m more of a believer this year than 2022 & 2023.

He’s playing like an MVP candidate in Detroit game - but if you look at the stats - you just see 1 TD, 1 INT. Meh. But watching that game - you know how damn talented he is.

His 6 picks this year
__________
Denver - probably should have held onto the ball but also got hit in half a second, right as he threw it. Should have had more time.

Miami - Charb bobbled the ball into the air and it got picked off. Could have been a little better throw to make it an easier catch for Charb but if he had better hands, that doesn’t happen. And throwing it quick makes sense when you’re in your own end zone - especially given that we got two safeties just two weeks prior against Denver .

Miami - Defensive lineman bats ball at line of scrimmage and it goes flying 20 feet into the air, no fault to Geno there - just bad luck

Detroit - Pressing ball into double coverage when down two scores with a minute left. No fault to him here, was a throw away game at that point, he played amazing himself that night. I’m sure if it was a one-score game, he wouldn’t have thrown that.

SF - probably should have thrown the ball away instead of throwing to Lockett but he has pressure in .5 seconds. He has a little more time and I bet that’s complete.

SF - DK drifts up the field, totally surprising Geno. We would have taken lead if we scored on that drive, could’ve won the game. SF would’ve scored again but it could essentially be whoever has the ball last wins.
_______
His TD/INT ratio SUCKS this year - but watching him and not just the box score, I’m damn happy he’s our QB. I just don’t see those WTF picks outside of the Detroit one…but we were down two scores with a minute left, so I get it. I think it’s ***potentially*** one of the best QB seasons in Seahawks history if he had more time to throw. This is honestly one of the worst O-Lines I’ve seen the Seahawks put out there and that’s saying something.

This is true. His picks this year are half bullshit.

I would say that his scoring production is a problem, but they seem insistent on rushing the ball for touchdowns. The only thing they've done well on the ground is score (Tied for 4th most in the league at 9 TDs). That's going to artificially lower his TD number, just like Jayden Daniels has his ratio lowered despite an offensive explosion in Washington due to their 13 rushing TDs (most in the league by 3!)

He had a game against SF that I would consider middling for an average QB and fairly bad for the standard he usually plays to. I still think that he's being held back moreso than the team is holding him back, just based on the cold hard tape.

 

[Ozzy]

If Geno averages those numbers, that's going to mean the team is awful and he'll have 150 or more passing attempts than any other NFL QB in the league. Many other categories will be looked at rather than yardage when thinking about signing a mid 30's QB to a contract. No way in hell he signs with another team for more than 45M in the future.

This is where I got the more than 45 million, you did say it knownone but maybe this was sarcasm and I missed it in this format.

 

[irfuben32]

Why did he play his worst game with the best pass protection he's been given all year if the O-Line is the problem?

312 yards 1 TD 2 INT

First interception it was still a bad throw but he had two free runners in his face.

Second interception was a miscommunication with DK, Geno expected him to stay flatter and DK leaked up the field looking for a bigger play.

Made a throw to DK in the corner of the endzone, DK catches that with his hands and gets his feet down and Geno's day looks a lot better


But more then that

52 yards rushing on 19 attempts

If you can't get the run game going cuz your blocking sucks it makes it a lot harder on the passing game.

 

[RiverDog]

IMO Geno's been forcing the ball, especially to Metcalf, throwing into very tight windows.

In our past 3 games, all of them losses, we’ve targeted DK Metcalf 30 times for 14 completions, 207 yards, 0 TD’s, and two lost fumbles. Take out the Detroit game and in the past two games, it’s 18 targets, 7 completions, 103 yards, 0 TD’s.

Last Thursday was the worst, with 11 targets to Metcalf for just 3 completions, 48 yards, and 0 TD’s.

IMO part of this tendency to force the ball is due to the lack of protection, that even when he has decent protection, like Pavlov's dog, Geno's been conditioned to expect to be hit at any given time. That's not an excuse, it's an explanation.

The other part of the equation is the lack of a running game. Our featured running back got a measly 32 yards on 14 carries vs. the Niners, and the game before that, we didn't even try to run, with just 7 rushing plays to our running backs. Every football novice knows that without a credible running threat that it makes the quarterback's job a lot tougher.

The point is that there is more than just one reason. It's not all Geno's fault, but he damn sure has to shoulder a lot of the blame.

 

[bigskydoc]

The only way I see us getting some sort of "haul" for Geno is if a "complete" team, who has not been to the big dance in recent memory, is showing signs of running away with the season, but has their established, vet, star QB go down for the season just before the trade deadline.

Think Buffalo, Minnesota, or Detroit if they maintain their current success into the trade deadline.

I don't think teams like the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, Niners, Packers, Buccaneers... would do it. They have enough recent success to keep the fans engaged.

I don't think teams with stud rookie QBs would do it, Washington, Houston. They don't need the post-season success to engage fans, nor do they need the headaches of QB controversy.