PFF ranks Geno in NFC...

[Jac]

I am happy for Lock as back up but I think top 3 might be going a bit far, there are a lot of "possibly good enough to be a starter if a team is desperate". I would put the likes of Dalton (assuming Young starts), Darnold, Brissett, Minshaw, Heinicke, Winston, Marriota and Huntly above what I have seen of Lock (Huntly even made the pro bowl!). If Lock has imploved behind the scenes as much as Geno has then yest he will be a top 3 back up but we haven't seen that yet.

Lock hasn't shown anything in the NFL that suggests he can be an effective starter, which is what you'd ideally want out of your backup. He's yet to throw for 5,000 career yards and has nearly as many career INTs as he does TDs.

 

[IndyHawk]

For me, elite is a special word. Mahomes and Burrow. That's it. No one else. I don't care what they did five years ago or what they might do five years from now. I only see elite play from two quarterbacks for the past two seasons.

I agree people abuse the term "elite" but there are so many rules protecting the QBs
today it makes it easier than ever for them.
The rules are also favoring offense so much in the name of safety it also helps the QB's
put up numbers that seem elite.

 

[Jac]

I agree people abuse the term "elite" but there are so many rules protecting the QBs
today it makes it easier than ever for them.
The rules are also favoring offense so much in the name of safety it also helps the QB's
put up numbers that seem elite.

If a QB is putting up numbers that are at (or very near) the top of the league, that would be a measure of being elite. How do you define elite?

 

[pittpnthrs]

Sam Monson with everyone's favorite site, Pro Football Focus, ranks his top 5 NFC QBs. Look at where Geno lands.

Oh, that's right, we can't see him. He's out of the top 5.

I'm flabbergasted that this guy has Derek freaking Carr over Geno. Derek Carr?? No. I put my foot down there. No way is Carr better than Smith.

And Stafford? No. Geno is better than Stafford. Heck, he's better than Dak. And he's better than Cousins. And Hurts? Overrated!

Geno should be #1 in the NFC. Who's with me??

Easy there Jerhawk. No, Geno is not better than those QB's listed. Lol. He's purely a systematic QB and nothing more.

 

[pittpnthrs]

All this list tells me is how weak the NFC QB's are.

Outside of Hurts, I can't really differentiate between the rest of the top 5-6, so yeah sure, put Geno in there. I honestly think they're all mediocre to above average.

Only difference is the other QB's on this list have a longer track record of being slightly above average. So maybe that's why they're ranked higher than Geno.

100% correct. The NFC isnt exactly lighting the world on fire with their QB talent.

 

[WarHawks]

Currently biting my tongue. Will wait and see...

 

[Appyhawk]

The only way Lock matters is if Geno gets hurt. Geno surprised me last year by surviving without injury. I think Geno's replacement will be drafted next year and will come out of...Kansas! Jalen Daniels can already do what Geno does, and MORE. Jalen checks EVERY Seahawk box, and is currently ranked about 10th by the draft "experts", which IMO proves what they aren't.

 

[Lagartixa]

For me, elite is a special word. Mahomes and Burrow. That's it. No one else. I don't care what they did five years ago or what they might do five years from now. I only see elite play from two quarterbacks for the past two seasons.

Mahomes…Burrow…those are my “elite” QBs.

How do you two end up with Burrow in your top two?
By most statistical measures, whether of efficiency or total production (essentially, efficiency times number of plays), Burrow was in the 6-10 range in 2022.

By DVOA (per-play efficiency stat from Football Outsiders), Burrow was ninth in 2022.
By FO's DYAR (their total-production stat), he was sixth.
By ANY/A, Burrow was seventh.
By total QBR, Burrow was tenth in 2022.
By passer rating, Burrow was sixth.

The one efficiency stat I could find in which Burrow was in the top five was completion percentage, where he was second.

 

[Lagartixa]

How do you two end up with Burrow in your top two?
By most statistical measures, whether of efficiency or total production (essentially, efficiency times number of plays), Burrow was in the 6-10 range in 2022.

By DVOA (per-play efficiency stat from Football Outsiders), Burrow was ninth in 2022.
By FO's DYAR (their total-production stat), he was sixth.
By ANY/A, Burrow was seventh.
By total QBR, Burrow was tenth in 2022.
By passer rating, Burrow was sixth.

The one efficiency stat I could find in which Burrow was in the top five was completion percentage, where he was second.

ObSeahawks: Let's see where Geno Smith finished in those stats in 2022.

DVOA: Smith was 12th.
DYAR: Smith was ninth.
ANY/A: Smith was ninth.
QBR: Smith was sixth.
Passer rating: Smith was fifth.

And of course, Smith was the one guy in the league with a higher completion percentage than Burrow. The difference between Smith and Burrow was 1.5 percentage points (Smith was at 69.8%, Burrow at 68.3%). The difference between Burrow and the next guy down was 0.1 percentage point. 1.5 percentage points down from Burrow was Tom Brady (66.8%), in ninth place. That is, the difference between Smith and second-place Burrow was the same as the difference between second place and ninth place in completion percentage.

Burrow was roughly as good as Smith in 2022. I'd say better than Smith, but by surprisingly little. Burrow was better in DVOA, DYAR, and ANY/A. Smith was better in QBR, passer rating, and completion percentage.

So why do I say Burrow was better than Smith? Because DVOA and DYAR, in both of which Burrow was better than Smith in 2022, take into account the quality of the defenses each was facing.

 

[hawkfan68]

ObSeahawks: Let's see where Geno Smith finished in those stats in 2022.

DVOA: Smith was 12th.
DYAR: Smith was ninth.
ANY/A: Smith was ninth.
QBR: Smith was sixth.
Passer rating: Smith was fifth.

And of course, Smith was the one guy in the league with a higher completion percentage than Burrow. The difference between Smith and Burrow was 1.5 percentage points (Smith was at 69.8%, Burrow at 68.3%). The difference between Burrow and the next guy down was 0.1 percentage point. 1.5 percentage points down from Burrow was Tom Brady (66.8%), in ninth place. That is, the difference between Smith and second-place Burrow was the same as the difference between second place and ninth place in completion percentage.

Burrow was roughly as good as Smith in 2022. I'd say better than Smith, but by surprisingly little. Burrow was better in DVOA, DYAR, and ANY/A. Smith was better in QBR, passer rating, and completion percentage.

So why do I say Burrow was better than Smith? Because DVOA and DYAR, in both of which Burrow was better than Smith in 2022, take into account the quality of the defenses each was facing.

Interesting. I hope you don't mind if I add Jalen Hurts to this as many are talking about him being the class of the NFC at the QB position (Which I don't put him in that category). Here's an article discussing his new contract - https://underdognetwork.com/footbal...-race-for-the-first-usd55-million-quarterback. The following paragraph caught my eye -

"Hurts has never finished higher than 10th in passing DYAR or DVOA, and he’s never had a passing grade above 83.8 from Pro Football Focus. They’re also paying for Hurts coming off of his best season – his previous passing highs were a -0.3% DVOA and a 69.2 PFF grade. He’s improved in every year he’s been in the NFL and there’s every reason to believe he’ll take that next step forward, but the Eagles are paying him as if he already has. It’s a risk worth taking, but that means it’s still a risk."

 

[Jac]

The only way Lock matters is if Geno gets hurt. Geno surprised me last year by surviving without injury. I think Geno's replacement will be drafted next year and will come out of...Kansas! Jalen Daniels can already do what Geno does, and MORE. Jalen checks EVERY Seahawk box, and is currently ranked about 10th by the draft "experts", which IMO proves what they aren't.

In that event, the only way Lock matters is with respect to draft position. He isn't taking this team anywhere, and he's not the future.

How do you two end up with Burrow in your top two?
By most statistical measures, whether of efficiency or total production (essentially, efficiency times number of plays), Burrow was in the 6-10 range in 2022.

By DVOA (per-play efficiency stat from Football Outsiders), Burrow was ninth in 2022.
By FO's DYAR (their total-production stat), he was sixth.
By ANY/A, Burrow was seventh.
By total QBR, Burrow was tenth in 2022.
By passer rating, Burrow was sixth.

The one efficiency stat I could find in which Burrow was in the top five was completion percentage, where he was second.

The insistence on Burrow being the sole QB worthy of sharing that rarified 'elite' air with Mahomes is a bit dubious to say the least.

 

[IndyHawk]

If a QB is putting up numbers that are at (or very near) the top of the league, that would be a measure of being elite. How do you define elite?

Top QBs of said year isn't elite to me,however if they
are near or at top every year then I would consider them elite
for their era and I can't state that part enough.

 

[Jac]

Top QBs of said year isn't elite to me,however if they
are near or at top every year then I would consider them elite
for their era and I can't state that part enough.

That's fair. So that'd clearly disqualify Burrow for now.

 

[IndyHawk]

That's fair. So that'd clearly disqualify Burrow for now.

I guess but Burrow does look very elite at times but he's not there yet for sure.

 

[Jac]

I guess but Burrow does look very elite at times but he's not there yet for sure.

As does Allen and Herbert. But like you said, give it time.

 

[scutterhawk]

In '22' Geno came out of obscurity and from the Dog-Damned NATIONALALY Renowned & recognized shadows of Me 3 of '20' and '21', had an Offensive Line that was FAR from being a Cohesive & Finished unit, he still managed to ADVANCE from the Bottom of The Barrel by the KNOW-IT-ALL Prognosticators AND the Russell Wilson Excuse-Makers here on .NET, #32 Quarterback last Off-Season to winning the COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR...Hey, any of Y'all KNOW of any other 2022 NFC Quarterbacks to lead their team from a BOTTOM DWELLING, possible FIVE WINS M-A-X!, to taking that Also-Ran team into the Playoffs? Hell To The No!

 

[GemCity]

Can’t reply to everyone but, thanks for pulling the statistics up.

When I said I consider Mahomes and Burrow to be the elite QBs, perhaps it was a mistake to throw Burrow in that category.

Stats aside, there are some QBs that give off the impression that when the game is on the line, they’re going to pull something off. Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Russ (back in the day), etc…

That’s certainly not the metric to determine who is “elite”. But, it is something that I think Geno may be missing…or we just haven’t seen it enough yet.

Pardon the analogy but to me, it’s similar to basketball when people start to debate Jordan vs LeBron. LeBron makes a strong argument for being the GOAT (longevity wise…there’s no doubt). But, if the game is on the line, MJ had that killer instinct. It’s MJ all day for me.

Now that I’ve dumbed this thread down by a wide margin , I’ll reiterate that Geno appears to be a perfect fit and I don’t think I’d take any NFC QB over him.