Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

[Palmegranite]

I came across this interesting 2023 season stat compilation regarding QB accuracy, or lack thereof.

Look at the company that Geno and Russ were keeping near the bottom:

Highest rate of incompletions due to inaccurate passes:

43.9% - Deshaun Watson
40.6% - Tyrod Taylor
38.8% - Trevor Siemian
37.7% - Bryce Young
36.7% - Lamar Jackson
36.2% - Jordan Love
36.1% - Trevor Lawrence
35.6% - C.J. Stroud
35.4% - Aidan O'Connell
35.0% - Kenny Pickett
34.9% - Easton Stick
34.9% - Matthew Stafford
34.8% - Joshua Dobbs
34.6% - Daniel Jones
34.3% - Tua Tagovailoa
33.1% - Mac Jones
33.0% - Sam Howell
32.9% - Bailey Zappe
32.2% - Jimmy Garoppolo
32.1% - Ryan Tannehill
30.9% - Joe Flacco
30.8% - Gardner Minshew
30.8% - Justin Fields
30.1% - Derek Carr
29.5% - Desmond Ridder
29.2% - Baker Mayfield
29.0% - Jalen Hurts
28.9% - Joe Burrow
28.7% - Brock Purdy
28.6% - Zach Wilson
28.3% - Kyler Murray
27.8% - Josh Allen
27.4% - Will Levis
27.2% - Dak Prescott
26.4% - Justin Herbert
26.3% - Jared Goff
25.3% - Russell Wilson
24.5% - Patrick Mahomes
23.2% - Kirk Cousins
22.2% - Jake Browning
21.6% - Geno Smith

*2023 regular season, min 175 att

 

[McGruff]

Jake Browning is the man!

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

Way to go, Geno.

Deshaun Watson trade being worst NFL trade of all time. Not if but when?

 

[Maelstrom787]

Geno was born to sling it. His release and form is about as smooth as it gets.

Fundamentally, he's a nearly flawless passer. He's as natural of a passer as it gets, and that's been true since WVU. The sky is the limit for the twilight of his career as long as he can be kept on the right track mentally - he's had one hell of a road to get to where he is.

Last year was an aberration where the box score stats didn't accurately tell the story of what was happening on the field. He kept this team in games.

 

[toffee]

In other words, the LOWEST rate of incompletions due to accurate passes, aka poise throws under pressure:

21.6% - Geno Smith
22.2% - Jake Browning
23.2% - Kirk Cousins
24.5% - Patrick Mahomes
25.3% - Russell Wilson
26.3% - Jared Goff
26.4% - Justin Herbert
27.2% - Dak Prescott
27.4% - Will Levis
27.8% - Josh Allen
28.3% - Kyler Murray
28.6% - Zach Wilson
28.7% - Brock Purdy
28.9% - Joe Burrow
29.0% - Jalen Hurts
29.2% - Baker Mayfield
29.5% - Desmond Ridder
30.1% - Derek Carr
30.8% - Gardner Minshew
30.8% - Justin Fields
30.9% - Joe Flacco
32.1% - Ryan Tannehill
32.2% - Jimmy Garoppolo
32.9% - Bailey Zappe
33.0% - Sam Howell
33.1% - Mac Jones
34.3% - Tua Tagovailoa
34.6% - Daniel Jones
34.8% - Joshua Dobbs
34.9% - Easton Stick
34.9% - Matthew Stafford
35.0% - Kenny Pickett
35.4% - Aidan O'Connell
35.6% - C.J. Stroud
36.1% - Trevor Lawrence
36.2% - Jordan Love
36.7% - Lamar Jackson
37.7% - Bryce Young
38.8% - Trevor Siemian
40.6% - Tyrod Taylor
43.9% - Deshaun Watson

 

[McGruff]

Geno was born to sling it. His release and form is about as smooth as it gets.

Fundamentally, he's a nearly flawless passer. He's as natural of a passer as it gets, and that's been true since WVU. The sky is the limit for the twilight of his career as long as he can be kept on the right track mentally - he's had one hell of a road to get to where he is.

Last year was an aberration where the box score stats didn't accurately tell the story of what was happening on the field. He kept this team in games.

The box score tells the story of Geno overcoming horrendous playcalling by his pathetic OC.

 

[RiverDog]

Interesting, yes, but not all that revealing. How do they define an "inaccurate pass"? And is there a difference between an inaccurate pass from the pocket with zero pressure and an inaccurate pass when they're on the move running opposite of their throwing arm? Is there a difference between an inaccurate pass on a 60-yard bomb and a 5-yard swing pass? There's too many "what if's" to put a whole lot of weight in that stat.

 

[keasley45]

Interesting, yes, but not all that revealing. How do they define an "inaccurate pass"? And is there a difference between an inaccurate pass from the pocket with zero pressure and an inaccurate pass when they're on the move running opposite of their throwing arm? Is there a difference between an inaccurate pass on a 60-yard bomb and a 5-yard swing pass? There's too many "what if's" to put a whole lot of weight in that stat.

I think youre making it too complicated. The stat basically says that whenever Geno throws the ball, whether under pressure, on the run, in the pocket, or out, deep, short, flat, crossing... he's more accurate than everyone else at his position.

And he threw it a lot. And a good percentage of those throws were under pressure.

 

[keasley45]

QBs Under Pressure in 2023

Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.

ftnfantasy.com

Another link that shows just how good Geno is. Not only did he lead the league in accurate passing, but he was the 10th most pressured qb.

And ... he has one of the lowest drops in DVOA when pressured. In other words... pressure doesnt get to him. And theres a short list of qbs who performed better than he did when the rush was coming and he had to be decisive...

Patrick Mahomes
Kirk Cousins
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy
Josh Allen
Dak Prescott

And non of them had the 29th best rushing attack and 28th best O line.

And people want to say hes a 16 to 20th ranked player at his position?

To recap:

One of the worst rushing games in the league behind him.

One of the worst offensive lines in front of him.

And hes tops in accurate throws.

And was elite in terms of his ability to pass under pressure.

Oh. And his offensive coordinator was invited to pack his bags.

 

[RiverDog]

I think youre making it too complicated. The stat basically says that whenever Geno throws the ball, whether under pressure, on the run, in the pocket, or out, deep, short, flat, crossing... he's more accurate than everyone else at his position.

And he threw it a lot. And a good percentage of those throws were under pressure.

I'm not convinced. If a receiver goes the wrong way resulting in an inaccurate pass, was it his fault or the QB's? Does it make a difference if a QB throws an accurate ball into tight coverage that should have never been thrown? Does down and distance make a difference? An inaccurate pass on 3rd down should carry more negative weight than an inaccurate pass on 1st down, should it not?

There's a lot of people out there trying to make a name for themselves by inventing some new way to quantify the sport.

 

[McGruff]

I agree that a stat like this can mean next to nothing as an isolated stat.

But comparatively it has value. There will be variances in schemes that may favor some passers over others, but with large enough sample sizes those tend to balance out.

And given that Pete/Waldron greatly favored a down field passing attack, Geno’s consistent level of accuracy is remarkable.

Add to that praise around the league given to his abilities as a passer (ex: Dave Canales recent comments) and it all kind of adds up to a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

[RiverDog]

I think youre making it too complicated. The stat basically says that whenever Geno throws the ball, whether under pressure, on the run, in the pocket, or out, deep, short, flat, crossing... he's more accurate than everyone else at his position.

And he threw it a lot. And a good percentage of those throws were under pressure.

On the other hand, Geno's red zone completion percentage was one of the worst in the league at just 43%, way under his season average of 64.7%.

2024 NFL Red Zone Stats | Quarterbacks | FantasyPros

View 2024 NFL Red Zone Stats. We break down the Red Zone performance inside the 20 yard line of all Quarterbacks in one convenient report. Import your fantasy team to find out whos available in your league.

www.fantasypros.com

Geno's 3rd down completion percentage, although not as bad as in the red zone, was a lackluster 56.9%. As a team, we ranked just 23rd on 3rd down, a performance that says as much about the quarterback as it does the team. Josh Allen's Bills were #1 in that department, and Allen just happened to be PFF's highest rated QB. Purdy's Niners were 4th, Mahomes Chiefs 6th.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2023

I'm not trying to disrespect Geno, but let's not start falling in love with someone's oddball stat because it happens to show him in a good light.

 

[Palmegranite]

I don't see this as an oddball stat. He's in really good company. My logical conclusion is that if the team around Geno improves a fair bit, it stands to reason that this should translate into substantially more completions, more yards, more points, more wins.

Same goes for the Steelers and even (gasp), the Broncos. Maybe Zach Wilson can redeem himself from those dumpster fire Jets years.

 

[Ozzy]

Hmm Russ is right there too, the haters are going to have a hard time with that lol.

Geno is ultra accurate. When he’s struggling it’s more about what he’s seeing and his decision making. He’s one of the most accurate dudes in the league. Hoping Grubb can tweak some things and Geno really takes off.

 

[Hollandhawk]

I think youre making it too complicated. The stat basically says that whenever Geno throws the ball, whether under pressure, on the run, in the pocket, or out, deep, short, flat, crossing... he's more accurate than everyone else at his position.

And he threw it a lot. And a good percentage of those throws were under pressure.

The question is how many times did Russ or Geno not throw the ball (to a target) and took a sack instead under pressure.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Hmm Russ is right there too, the haters are going to have a hard time with that lol.

Geno is ultra accurate. When he’s struggling it’s more about what he’s seeing and his decision making. He’s one of the most accurate dudes in the league. Hoping Grubb can tweak some things and Geno really takes off.

The haters, yes. But the realistic Russ detractors like me would've expected him to be top-10 here. My whole issue with Russ was him not pulling the trigger on short/mid stuff. He's always put the ball on the money, though, especially deep.

 

[keasley45]

Hmm Russ is right there too, the haters are going to have a hard time with that lol.

Geno is ultra accurate. When he’s struggling it’s more about what he’s seeing and his decision making. He’s one of the most accurate dudes in the league. Hoping Grubb can tweak some things and Geno really takes off.

Russ has always been an accurate passer.

 

[keasley45]

The question is how many times did Russ or Geno not throw the ball (to a target) and took a sack instead under pressure.

Russ's own o-lineman said that he was responsible for 30% to 40% of the sacks he took.

There was an article about either Geno last year or the year prior that highlighted the fact that he was one of the better qbs in the league at not holding the ball and getting it out quickly.

 

[Jville]

We've enjoyed a couple of great quarterback stories in recent times ..................

 

[Ozzy]

Russ's own o-lineman said that he was responsible for 30% to 40% of the sacks he took.

There was an article about either Geno last year or the year prior that highlighted the fact that he was one of the better qbs in the league at not holding the ball and getting it out quickly.

But we can verify that. Multiple times we were at or near the top in instant pressures. Of course they’re going to put blame on someone else. Wilson’s style caused a lot of sacks but also extended dead plays. The line was also terrible for multiple years under Cable and Pete being cheap there. Both can and are true.

I do agree that Geno is much better at getting the ball out quickly. When he does struggle it’s because he doesn’t trust what he sees and hesitates but my hope is Grubb can help in this area too. Excited to see what the offense looks like this year.