Once you pay a QB you are out of a Superbowl. From the radio

[Shanegotyou11]

Qbs once they become the highest paid on the team they no longer win superbowls. So they said the seahawks are becoming the Packers and Saints with russ.

Here is a snippet from SI.

"A quarterback on a deal worth $20 million per year or more has never won the Super Bowl."

 

[Cyrus12]

Guess we will see with Mahomes.

 

[emurri]

Guess we will see with Mahomes.

Yeah, I think that statistic will be over soon. I think you need to have a great qb to win the sb. If we could learn to play a little defense we would win a number of them with Russ.

 

[Jerhawk]

Well, we're not afforded the luxury of having Wilson on a rookie deal.

I shutter to think what this team would look like without a Superstar QB.
Wilson's contract will be dwarfed by other contracts here very soon.

 

[Zap90]

What about Brady? Manning?

 

[TwistedHusky]

Replace 'pay a QB' with 'hire an incompetent DC' and the statement is correct.

 

[bmorepunk]

Sure, and you can be like the Bears, who haven't had a legit franchise quarterback since Sid Luckman and win one Super Bowl when you have a really insane defense.

It's not like this team is missing one or two pieces on defense right now they could have signed with Wilson's money. It's just a disaster.

 

[TreeRon]

Wait a minute. What's Mahomes making? How are the Chiefs doing? What is their projection?

 

[sdog1981]

What about Brady? Manning?

Manning would win 12 games a year and lose in the first round.

Brady went from 2003 to 2014 without winning one. Then won 3 on cheap deals.

 

[getnasty]

There's definitely something to this. Brady and Mannings contrats were all super team friendly. Somehow the Chiefs kept the band together with signing Mahomes but my guess is this year is cheap after that there in trouble.

 

[Elemas]

I think you could swap QB with a number of different positions and that statement run true. I don't like paying such a high contract but, I don't think we'd do much better with a subpar QB and say...2-3 more pro bowlers on the defensive side.

Not that I wouldn't like to have them...just saying that this team without a great QB with holes filled in on defense wouldn't fair better.

 

[Appyhawk]

It will be very interesting to see how the league adjusts to a reduced cap limit.

 

[TwistedHusky]

This is one of those stats that will vanish over time.

Much like the 'A team that primarily shoots 3 pointers cannot win an NBA title' was a false truism.

I posted something on this at the start of the season, how large QB contracts immediately have a balancing effect. Because finding a star QB is so difficult, there needed to be a way to assure that teams with star QBs do not just run roughshod over the rest of the league removing all hope for the fans of other teams or assuring that losing teams could never be competitive.

Large contracts do strip the roster in other areas. So the easiest pathway to the SB is indeed a great young QB on a rookie deal with the rest of the roster filled out (usually in Year 2 or Year 3 after a couple of key FA signings to fill holes).

Not really relevant here because our roster is not the problem.

Arguing that our QB cost makes us uncompetitive misses that reasonably well-populated roster we have, and ignores the fact that this team has not really been a factor in the playoffs since our SB loss. Our only accomplishments in the playoffs since the SB loss have been wildcard wins, with the exception last year of a win against a hapless, injured Eagles team that limped into the playoffs.

The QB contract was not the reason we haven't been viable in the playoffs. And it is possible to be a competitive viable playoff team without reaching the SB. That would not be this team though.

 

[bigskydoc]

Kind of a dumb argument if it doesn't take into account the rising salary cap, the year of the contract in which the bowl was won, and the actual cap hit in the year of the win.

2015 - Peyton Manning had a cap hit of $17.5 million. That was 12.2% of the $143.28 million cap. That translates into $24.2 million in today's dollars.

That was in the final year of his contract. The first year of that contract paid 14.9% of the cap, or almost $30 million in today's dollars.

In 2013, the year he lost to the Seahawks, he accounted for 14.2% of the cap, the equivalent of $28 million in 2020.

In 2014, Brady's cap hit was $14.8 million, 11.1% of the cap and $22 million in today's dollars.

In 2018, Brady had a cap hit of $22 million, 12.4%, and 24.6 million in today's dollars. If you play the sleight of hand game, and average out his contract, then he made closer to $15 million that year.

But that was just the Patriots way of spreading out the cap hit. It is why he earned over $230 million with the Pats, despite a base salary that never exceeded $4 million.

Probably the most honest number to look at would be percent of the cap, but one also needs to consider the year of the contract, and the overall cost of the contract relative to the cap at the time.

 

[ZagHawk]

Yup this is a stat that has been proven right year after year after year. I think Mahomes may be the first QB to break it though because much of his team is still intact this year...where as RW got paid after SB 49 and the team internally fell apart despite the talent being there for his first year with the new contract.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

It will be very interesting to see how the league adjusts to a reduced cap limit.

Interesting indeed. The teams with cap space will have an absolute smorgasbord of talent available with very little in the way of competing buyers.

The absolute best positioned teams are:

Jags
Patriots
Dolphins
Broncos

They have north of 24M in effective space (Jags at 74M, Pats at 61M). All teams have more than 40 players signed through 2021 -- so they can command the market easily.

Browns
Ravens
Cowboys
Giants

All have less space, but still have 40+ players signed. So they are in great shape.

Seattle is in a pretty poor position. With only 7M in expected effective space, with 19 roster spots to fill, they will very likely have to cut players. Contracts that will provide relief ordered by highest to lowest:

Carlos Dunlap - 14M
Duane Brown - 11M
Tyler Lockett - 10.3M
Jamal Adams - 9.86M
Bobby Wagner - 9.6M
Jarran Reed - 8.475M
Quandre Diggs - 5.5M
Brandon Shell - 3.5M

Green highlighted deals show < 10% dead money hits. Seattle should want to be roughly 30M in available cap room for this offseason. They'll be out of the running for alpha UFAs. But they should be able to be in the running for a whole host of tier 2/3 UFAs at pretty low values.

We're kind of in the 'not horrible, but not great' standing. We need some cap space and have to sign a LOT of players to fill the roster. The Cards and Niners are in the same boat as us. There are teams that are in worse shape.

Titans
Packers
Bills
Vikings
Raiders

That still have to sign 13-15 UFAs but have virtually zero or less than zero cap space. They'll be shedding a lot of contracts just to sign vet minimum replacements.

Then there are the purgatory teams:

Texans
Chiefs
Rams
Steelers

Who are going to have to shed upwards of 50M in cap space to both get under the cap and have enough to fill their rosters.

Finally the in absolute hell teams:

Falcons
Eagles
Saints

Who are almost going to have to blow up their teams completely. Eagles have to shed ~70M in salary just to get to zero. The Saints have to shed 96M to get to zero. Neither team has many big contracts with minimal dead money hits. They all will be cutting players that otherwise one would never see on the open market.