- Mar 13, 2014
- Reaction score
- Truth Ray
Show me a team who dumped their Franchise QB so they could save money to keep their existing roster mostly intact? You speak of fantasy.I don't buy the premise. It feels like Dr P did a bunch of research, found no correlation, so he had to draw a conclusion to make his video. The last 3 SB winners isn't statistically relevant to all data from the cap era. He completely ignored the Patriot dynasty that actually disproves his entire point. Belichick (and Chiefs) did the exact opposite of Bucs and Rams and (in my unqualified opinion) is the method JS is following. -trade overvalued assets, build through the draft, fill in holes with journeyman FAs (not splashy), create a team culture around winning. The Chiefs trading Hill didn't feel like an "all in" move to me either...not like the Rams or Bucs picking up huge FA contracts and mortgaging futute picks. It comes down to Pats, Chiefs (and hopefully Seahawks) trading over valued players while the Bucs, Rams (maybe Jets) bringing in high priced FA QBs for a one-year run. Following Dr Ps formula as presented, the Broncos would have won the SB last year. To me, the video shows young aggressive coaches go all in to win and then have to rebuild (Saleh?, Hackett, McVay...). Old coaches that survive rely on a winning culture and (when they're true to it) win consistently. RCW interrupted Seattle's dynasty but it's on its way back.
Dr P wasn't born until the cap era so much of this information seems intuitive to me, and I'd guess to the other old farts here on .net.
Also, "young teams" do exist in the NFL but (of course) the average age of every team is close because of the cap. A young team has young leaders and young players in central roles, regardless of average age, age/snap or vet QB. There's simply no question, in my mind, that the 22 Seahawks was a "Young Team" compared to the 21 Seahawks. My opinion, not trying to convince anyone. BWagz leaving and Geno being a rookie starter even though he's an old guy just changed the team. It's not worth arguing about so we could use a different term if that's the goal. ...say "youthful" or "inexperienced" ...
Relative to the Seahawks, I think everyone's in agreement that we have more talent than we've had in a while. That should lead to more wins.
I, personally, think franchise QBs are overvalued too. That's probably because I like the idea of a dynasty and not a one hit wonder. Best case scenario is a QB making less than he's worth. I think the Seahawks are headed in the right direction and am optimistic. No one's yet convinced me otherwise.
QB's don't account for 50% of the salary cap. They usually account around 15%. Moving off of him, his replacement is going to eat into that. Leaving you with about $20M in additional space to go get a really good player, but not a top flight player at the more valuable non-QB positions. As They go for $30M+.
Personal preferences are one thing, the actual data is another.
The data is clear, it's up to you if you choose to ignore it or not.
It's impossible to build a dynasty in the modern NFL, NFL rosters turnover 80% every 3 years. However, Franchise QBs are one of the few ways you can actually consistently win, as the most valuable piece on the chess board that can be a 15 yr mainstay, keeping that player intact, while moving the parts around him is the way to go. Not dumping him to save a measly 5-15% on the cap depending on the direction you go with his replacement.
According to your logic, the Chiefs were fools for paying Mahomes and should've moved off of him instead.
Belichick put out the blue-print with Brady, constantly remaking the team around him. And Brady's discounts over his career were highly exaggerated. Between Russell Wilson signing his first extension in 2015 through 2019. The Patriots won 2 more Super Bowls, while Brady counted $15M total cap dollars more ($3M avg.) against the cap in that span than Wilson. The real key to Belichick's team building success was never over paying the other guys, while continuing to redo Brady's contract to keep his cap hits as low as they could manage. (Still costed more than Wilson 2015-2019 on avg.)
The Chiefs are executing it right now as well, moving off other expensive pieces to keep their QB and it's working. They will extend Mahomes in the not too distant future, (probably next off-season) to lower his cap number, and keep pushing.