Pay Geno now? I think.......

sutz

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Guys, the team may not be able to afford signing Geno now. We only have around $3.8 mill in cap space. Geno would get no immediate signing bonus now. It wouldn't take effect until next spring anyway. ;)
 

Spin Doctor

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There is a lot of wishful thinking here. You guys are delusional if you think Geno is going to take a discount or that he's going to get any less than 40 per year at his current pace.

Geno is going to take money from whoever offers him the highest contract. This is likely going to be his last and ONLY big contract. He's going to get whatever he can, he's not going to take a hometown discount out of the goodness of his heart.

I'm also seeing posters talk about Geno Smith taking all he's worth as being a negative reflection of his character, or that he's grown so he'll take less. That talk is nonsense -- at the end of the day the player is entitled and they almost always follow the mighty dollar, and there isn't anything wrong with that. Only a very few players do take a discount, Geno is not going to be that guy.
 

Chukarhawk

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LOL $40MM a year. Yeah, that's not going to happen
 

Mick063

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His consistency and high level of play will command the going rate and the going rate is the franchise tag value at a minimum. There are about a dozen teams that will believe that he would make the difference for putting them over the top. Similar to how Denver perceived Wilson in the preseason. The Jets, Colts, Commanders, and Patriots are examples of teams that may feel that they are just a quarterback away.

I GUARANTEE you that someone, somewhere will pay Geno 40 mil plus per season over four years with half of the money guaranteed because Geno is not going away. The halfway point is much too far into the season to realistically believe that Geno will "come back down to earth". Teams may game plan better for him, but he is surrounded by WEAPONS. As long as the wide receivers, tight ends, and K9 remain healthy, it is going to be damned tough to come up with effective counter measures for Geno. I personally believe that he has already played his way into the money. He would have to completely bomb over several games to lower his stock significantly.

Geno worked diligently hard for his payday. He put in the time. He EARNED it and because his career is only going to enjoy one big contract, someone is going to pay it. His agent negotiates from a position of strength.
 
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Hockey Guy

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Wait until after the season. I think a 3 year 65-70M with 40M guaranteed gets it done.

We have the inside track to sign him & I think he wants to return because this is the proverbial perfect situation for him & I think he knows it & appreciates the confidence shown in him & the opportunity he's been given here.

I just don't see there being a full out bidding war getting him 40M in FA. I just don't.
 

Spin Doctor

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LOL $40MM a year. Yeah, that's not going to happen
The franchise tag alone is 43 million dollars.... I don't know what you're expecting, but right now Geno is playing like a top 3 QB. Not only that, Geno comes from a system that roughly a third of the NFL teams using right now in some way, shape or form. If he continues this pace, he's getting at least 40 million. Even Keenum got 36 million dollars a year and Geno is far out performing anything he ever did.

There is nothing lolable here. Geno is getting paid, and he's going to get a lot of money. That's just how the NFL works these days. The best we could try to do is attach a lot of incentives, but either way I fully expect his going rate to be around 40mil a year. That is the current QB market.
 

olyfan63

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Pete's winning model is: Elite D, cheap game manager QB, cheap O-Line, smash-mouth run game, AND a large number of players MASSIVELY outperforming their contracts. We have it all this year, except the elite D part isn't there yet. But, we will have most of the essential pieces for at least 3 more years. Specifically, the quality of this year's rookie class is UNBELIEVABLE.

If we pay Geno too much, we wipe out Pete's winning formula. 2013 and 2014 SB appearances were largely made possible by getting good QB play from Russell for dirt cheap, while hitting on the prior couple years' drafts, and getting BeastMode for relatively cheap, and having enough cap room to sign high-impact FA's like Cliff Avril.

That said, Geno is playing so well, we have to extend him for a respectable payday; I like the 3 years with 40M guaranteed, while signing Lock and developing him, as well as drafting a promising rookie to develop, this year or next. Next year's draft, with a few hits on D, could get us to having an Elite D again.

I love how Geno is playing, but how much of that is Shane Waldron, and could Waldron get nearly as good a performance from Lock for peanuts for a couple years while we trade Geno in a couple years for players and picks, like what we got for Russell? Or maybe it WOULD be worthwhile and still within Pete's "winning model" to pay a QB who CAN carry a team?

Well, that's why John Schneider gets the big bucks, to figure out how to maximize the roster talent and stay under the salary cap.
 

Mick063

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Pete's winning model is: Elite D, cheap game manager QB, cheap O-Line, smash-mouth run game, AND a large number of players MASSIVELY outperforming their contracts. We have it all this year, except the elite D part isn't there yet. But, we will have most of the essential pieces for at least 3 more years. Specifically, the quality of this year's rookie class is UNBELIEVABLE.

If we pay Geno too much, we wipe out Pete's winning formula. 2013 and 2014 SB appearances were largely made possible by getting good QB play from Russell for dirt cheap, while hitting on the prior couple years' drafts, and getting BeastMode for relatively cheap, and having enough cap room to sign high-impact FA's like Cliff Avril.

That said, Geno is playing so well, we have to extend him for a respectable payday; I like the 3 years with 40M guaranteed, while signing Lock and developing him, as well as drafting a promising rookie to develop, this year or next. Next year's draft, with a few hits on D, could get us to having an Elite D again.

I love how Geno is playing, but how much of that is Shane Waldron, and could Waldron get nearly as good a performance from Lock for peanuts for a couple years while we trade Geno in a couple years for players and picks, like what we got for Russell? Or maybe it WOULD be worthwhile and still within Pete's "winning model" to pay a QB who CAN carry a team?

Well, that's why John Schneider gets the big bucks, to figure out how to maximize the roster talent and stay under the salary cap.
The answer to your question lies in his post season success. A Super Bowl appearance would drive the bidding war to crazy level. Seattle would be smart to get a deal wrapped up before it potentially gets that far. Schnieder knows this. Regardless, if Geno was showing in camp as well as Pete says he was, it is kind of a mistake by Schnieder to not get a deal done back then. Geno's sticker price is going up weekly. But maybe Geno was the smart one here. Maybe he was so cocksure confident that his season would play out like this that he was asking for a big payday even back then. Regardless, Schnieder balked...and it is going to cost him.

Wilson hasn't been to the Super Bowl in a decade. What compensation did Denver give up for Wilson with respect to draft picks? After answering that for yourself, imagine if Wilson cost zero draft picks to acquire. Do you think his desirability might have moved up a notch? Think a team would be willing to pay a bit more considering there is no acquisition fee relative to the cost of draft picks? Think more teams than Denver would be showing serious interest? That is the position that Geno is in. Further, Schnieder doesn't have to give up draft picks to acquire Geno either (hello Jamaal Adams). That hidden value certainly has to factor into the equation.

Seattle must already be talking details with Geno's agent. They have to be. They don't want him hitting the open market without getting their pitch in first. They are lucky there are tampering rules or other teams would be talking to his agent right now.
 
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BlueTalon

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I'd prefer that we finish the year before those discussions even start, mainly because of the distraction potential and the fact that we need a cohesive plan on re-signing our FAs.
There's plenty of time after Munich for a few distractions. And I doubt entering into talks with Geno's agent will prevent Schneider & Co from having a cohesive plan for re-signing our FAs.
 

BlueTalon

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There is a lot of wishful thinking here. You guys are delusional if you think Geno is going to take a discount or that he's going to get any less than 40 per year at his current pace.

Geno is going to take money from whoever offers him the highest contract. This is likely going to be his last and ONLY big contract. He's going to get whatever he can, he's not going to take a hometown discount out of the goodness of his heart.
The thing that makes an early contract possible, in my view, is if the guaranteed money is significant. It would basically be injury insurance. In this thread, people are speculating about what will happen to Geno's value if he wins the Super Bowl. But what if his value goes the other direction with a shoulder injury or a knee injury? If you're Geno, signing a contract now that's not a full market value contract, but one that would set him up for life even if he's injured this year, would be something worth considering.
 

olyfan63

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The answer to your question lies in his post season success. A Super Bowl appearance would drive the bidding war to crazy level. Seattle would be smart to get a deal wrapped up before it potentially gets that far. Schnieder knows this.

Wilson hasn't been to the Super Bowl in a decade. What compensation did Denver give up for Wilson with respect to draft picks? After answering that for yourself, imagine if Wilson cost zero draft picks to acquire. Do you think his desirability might have moved up a notch? Think a team would be willing to pay a bit more considering there is no acquisition fee relative to the cost of draft picks? Think more teams than Denver would be showing serious interest? That is the position that Geno is in. Further, Schnieder doesn't have to give up picks to acquire Geno either. That hidden value certainly has to factor into the equation.

Seattle must already be talking details with Geno's agent. They have to be. They don't want him hitting the open market without getting their pitch in first. They are lucky there are tampering rules or other teams would be talking to his agent right now.
So right about post-season success driving a QB's value up. I do think Geno is a QB who can have post-season success, like what Joe Burrow did last year. The other part of this is I see Waldron as an integral part of Geno's success, and we need to lock them up to new deals in tandem.

The great thing about Waldron is that it feels like it's rare to go "WTF??!!" about the OC's play-calling this year. It's sort of like offensive linemen, you know they're doing a good job if you don't notice them so much, not getting their number called for penalties, not seeing their guy consistent get sacks or pressures. I used to dread those 3rd-and-3, 3rd-and-4 situations with Russell. This year, in those situations, it's like, "Waldron will come up with something good, Geno will execute it, and the drive will continue".
 

QWERTY

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Geno Smith's entire carrer salary is

10 years at $13,946,078


Do you really think he would be satisfied less than 30mill a season? I think he will try to get at least 30mill a year from Seattle, if not there are other teams like Panthers, Giants that will pay 35-40mill per season.
 

Spin Doctor

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Geno Smith's entire carrer salary is

10 years at $13,946,078


Do you really think he would be satisfied less than 30mill a season? I think he will try to get at least 30mill a year from Seattle, if not there are other teams like Panthers, Giants that will pay 35-40mill per season.
He's getting much more than 30 mil a year at that. I really don't understand why such a large degree of posters here think he's going to play for pennies on the dollar. Despite being 32, Geno Smith is moving like a 24 year old dual threat QB. He's pulled a few escapes this year that made me second guess whether it was prime Russell Wilson out there or Geno. The arm is there too, not only does he have a live arm, he has one of the tightest spirals in the NFL.

In addition, how Geno is playing is a style that ages well. He's a pocket passer first, scrambling QB second. He makes a living at the LOS and directing everything. The dude is even making line calls and adjustments out there. Most QB's don't do that to his degree.

There is no way in hell that coaches and GM's are blind to what is going on with Geno right now. I was the biggest skeptic, when I pulled my head out of my ass I saw that Geno is no fluke. There is no way that professionals aren't seeing the same thing we all have seen with our own two eyes. Geno has put the league on notice. If he were playing in a more pass heavy offense, his numbers would look absolutely stupid right now.

Also, Geno is not going to be signing early. It's likely that both Carroll and his agent want to wait until the season is over.
 

StoneCold

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I want to see him keep up his current play. If it continues, signing him this year would be a good move. But if he does keep playing at this level, it's going to be his choice. There is never a home town discount for high quality players. Risk reward for Geno is he waits, gets injured or his performance falls off and he gets another small contract. If he signs in late December, he protects against injury and secures substantial guaranteed money.

I have no guess as to how it will go.

Go Geno!
 

Lagartixa

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Gang, Garoppolo got over $27M per year from the Gold Diggers in 2018. QB salaries have gone up since then, and Smith has played much better than Garoppolo ever did. Smith doesn't have many years left to make money, and some team will certainly give him well over $30M per year. As pointed out by @Spin Doctor above, the franchise tag is well over $40M (I saw that it would be over $45M next season in an article about Lamar Jackson, but Spin said $43M... in any case, well over $40M). If Smith has a competent agent, that's the starting point for negotiations. And since the franchise tag is fully guaranteed, any multi-year deal will have to guarantee Smith significantly more than the value of the one-year franchise tag.
I don't buy that the Seahawks could be even nearly as good with Lock, because Lock has never shown the kind of vision and decision-making ability that Smith has shown this season. Smith showed signs last year that he might be reasonably good. I don't think anyone, even Smith's mom, was expecting him to play as great as he has this season, but there were decent reasons to expect Smith to be better than Lock and win the starting job.
Smith will be expensive to keep, but when you consider that the Seahawks are using $31M of their cap space on the QB position this year, and when you consider just how good Smith has been in the system Carroll and Waldron want to run, it seems like a good idea for the Seahawks to at least see if there's a way to offer Smith something close to his market value.
 
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CalgaryFan05

CalgaryFan05

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The advantage Geno has in signing now is a guaranteed payday. If his play falters, or if he gets hurt, that would have a substantial hit against his income. So sign now please.
3yr, $54M, $35M guaranteed. Essentially a 2 year deal with an option.
I like this.
 
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