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It's worth noting that until 2021, Russ was a juggernaut in most advanced metrics. At one point, he was one of the most efficient down-to-down QBs in the league. Now? He's one of the least efficient.
As Russ has aged, two significant things have happened: 1) His success rate, defined as the percentage of plays with an EPA greater than 0, has declined, and 2) his explosive play opportunities generated (for lack of a better term) have decreased. A reduction in explosive play opportunities leads to a greater reliance on converting the remaining chances.
Here’s a slight simplification: if you go from generating 10 opportunities to only generating 6, even if your conversion rate remains the same at 50%, it's still a 40% loss in production.
This is the Russell Wilson paradox. He’s still an elite downfield passer, and when he converts those few opportunities at a high rate as he did against the Jets, he can look like the same old Russ. However, when those moonballs start bouncing off fingertips or come up short, his performance can resemble Jacoby Brissett's efficiency. That’s not a recipe for consistent offensive success. Instead, it creates a highly volatile offense—one that may look terrible for three drives and then effortlessly score a touchdown before trending back down.
Luckily, the Steelers are the one team that has proven they can win that style of offense.
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Advanced metrics be damned.
Russ's calling card has been
1. His high comp % because he held the ball so long AND because he does have a gifted arm.
2. His ability to extend plays and THEN find the deep strike, which boosts YPC, explosives and TDs.
3. His ability to limit turnovers because he rarley throws the ball in the flow of the play, preferring to hold the ball and throw it to the WIDE open guy when coverage breaks down.
Thats not to say he CANT throwing timing routes, but throwing into tight windows in between defenders and to wr's transitioning between zone windows on the move was never and still isnt his game.
And thats ok, because he has managed to work around it.
But to pretend the work-around is a sure-fire ticket to winning football and sustainable offense is ludicrous.
It will ALWAYS produce the stats Russ has generated by shear fact that he's distributing the ball when HE wants to and not when the offense says he should or when a wr is open by a half step. He simply does not throw those routes. Payton saw it and told him that if he wasnt gonna throw it when it needed to be thrown, then he should just check it down. And he did. At a league leading rate.
But if you role with Russ, you can kiss half of your playbook goodbye and just , as Pete did, make the scramble drill a staple of practice, because thats where the majority of Russ's work is done.
You dont need advanced meteic to see who and what he has been, well before his fall in 21.
There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for...
www.seahawks.net
There is a reason he has AlWAYS been the only qb considered top tier who was average (sometimes better, sometimes worse) at sustaining drives. His positive stats point to him being stellar. The less galmorous, less discussed stats related to 3rd down passing success, passing success in known passing downs, average drive duration, average plays per drive tell a very different story.
And unfortunately at .net, his failures (because his successess were so otherworldly spectacular) were attributed to 'others' when in fact, they were always his. He was (and is) outstanding at certain aspects of the game, and is wooefully inadequate in others. He is both and has been from the beginning. The fall off he experienced when leaving here wasnt because he forgot how to play, was gunshy, got happy feet or was forced into a bad relationship with his coach. No, he faltered because he was FORCED to play through those aspects of QBing that elite qbs master as their staple and couldnt. He didnt have to do it in Seattle because Pete allowed him to just be Russ.
In Pittsburgh, he has as close to the Seattle sutuation as he will likely ever get - a system predicated on string defense, running the ball, and an offemse thats just creative enough to not lose the game. If the defensr and running game in Pitt can create the mulligan style flexibility for the offense to run in fits and starts because with Russ, it will never be methodical or predictable tbrough the air, and Me3 is allowed to affe t the game on 3 or 4 plays for the better when he is just being him, he can do well.
But he is who he is.
