Kearly's offseason plan: 2014 edition

[DavidSeven]

I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

If they find a way to lock up Earl and Sherm (w/ room for Russell next year) and then draft well, then I think that's a win for the off-season. If they extend those guys AND somehow retain Bennett and Tate, then it's a home run -- just not sure if it's realistic.

Look, I know what you're saying. Your minimalist/conservationist approach is the most likely because it embodies the worst case scenario when it comes to FA signings. However, I highly, highly, highly doubt that PC/JS's Plan A is to let Golden Tate walk. I am certain their Plan A is to re-sign all of Bennett, Tate and Baldwin.

I think there were alot of doubts about signing a legit pass rusher last season. 12s would have been thrilled with a John Abrahams signing, yet we were treated to insanely friendly deals with BOTH Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.

I trust that PC/JS can work similar magic this offseason so don't be such a pessimist.

I pretty much agree. I just like to keep my expectations in check to avoid heartbreak.

Baldwin is basically guaranteed to return because of his RFA status. I would love to see Tate/Bennett back. Just emphasizing that I think extending Sherm/Earl with an eye toward Wilson (or at least having that plan in place) has to be primary focus this off-season. I'll consider it a successful off-season if they can accomplish that much (assuming they continue to hit in the draft). That being said, Bennett and Tate would be the tastiest icing ever and definitely have faith that PC/JS already know what they're doing.

 

[SDHawk]

I pretty much agree. I just like to keep my expectations in check to avoid heartbreak.

Baldwin is basically guaranteed to return because of his RFA status. I would love to see Tate/Bennett back. Just emphasizing that I think extending Sherm/Earl with an eye toward Wilson (or at least having that plan in place) has to be primary focus this off-season. I'll consider it a successful off-season if they can accomplish that much (assuming they continue to hit in the draft). That being said, Bennett and Tate would be the tastiest icing ever and definitely have faith that PC/JS already know what they're doing.

:229031_cheers:

 

[Blitzer88]

Good stuff Kearly, I would love to keep everyone from this team, but I just know that nowadays you can't do that. Hopefully they lock up most of our own FAs and than go on form there.

 

[themunn]

I got as far as Doug Baldwin 2nd round and the 49ers making a move.

Doug Baldwin moving to SF is as likely as Jacksonville winning the superbowl. I will continue to read. Interesting so far

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the idea. I've even read some Niner fans posting to the effect that they'd like to see it happen.

Baldwin is not a fan of Harbaugh

to put it mildly

 

[SDHawk]

I got as far as Doug Baldwin 2nd round and the 49ers making a move.

Doug Baldwin moving to SF is as likely as Jacksonville winning the superbowl. I will continue to read. Interesting so far

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the idea. I've even read some Niner fans posting to the effect that they'd like to see it happen.

Baldwin is not a fan of Harbaugh

to put it mildly

No way Baldwin wants to play against the Seahawks twice a year.

If there were a team that would be willing to surrender a 2nd rounder for Baldwin, it is the Colts.

 

[mikeak]

I am just going to discuss Sherman but in a way this ties into RW as just about everything is true for both.

Sherman is massively underpaid for what he has done and what is expected next year.
Sherman has one year left on his contract next year which is where you traditionally extend players
Sherman is now eligible.

Sure theroetically you don't have to extend him, sure you can franchise him after that.

HOW DO YOU THINK THAT WILL MAKE HIM FEEL?????

It would PISS me off. It would make me so mad - it would make me turn on the team 110%. I helped them to a Superbowl and now they are doing this to me? What happened.

There is simply no way ever that I believe that we don't add money and years to Sherman's contract this year. It is not about dollars on paper but about what we have to do to keep him in the long term.

We add an extension which keeps the base salary this year the same. The extension will be in the $10-$15million / year salary range. It will come with a signing bonus that gives him millions now. We probably but a nice chunk of guaranteed money to make it acceptable to both parties. We get a small discount doing this now as Sherman stays happy.

I think we need to count $2-$4million to Sherman against the cap now.

Same thing applies to RW next year.

There is a HUGE risk playing in the NFL on a one year deal. It is a violent sport and putting two of the biggest names and faces in that situation is not something this organization will or should do. It is not what they are about or at least it is not in line with what they say they are about. How we handle Sherman will send a message. If Sherman takes slightly less that will also send a message.

To me you deal with him early - even if you don't ink the paper (so you can change things to fit your other deals)

 

[seatownlowdown]

I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

good point, some guys are "must haves". i just think we need to add to that "must have" list just a bit.

*we need an adequate passblocking LT more than people want to believe. as far as you pointed out, "unique, necessary, or gamechanger types" on offense, id add okung to that list. when our starting OT's went out with injuries this year, we were a completely different offense. remember weeks 2-10 vs colts, texans, cards, rams etc? also, you have to protect your investment in wilson

*in runstopping, big red and mebane "types" are necessary so we dont have to try to stop the run with 8-9 in the box. and in passrushing, avril and bennett "types" are essential because we can typically get pressure with 4. all these guys are somewhat situational but still essential to our brand of defense. i think cutting any of these players are a mistake unless we actually have adequate backups.

i think pete/john will find a way to keep

tate
baldwin
bennett
breno

while still resigning both earl and sherm

... so goodbye to

rice
clem (and hello to benson mayowa)
miller (jermichael finley or asj, anyone?)
browner
thurmond
mcq
jean-pierre (sadly a much better blocker than unger)
mike rob

 

[Lynch Mob]

1) I would cut Miller,Clemons,T.Jack,Rice,McQuistan and let Giacomini walk.
2)try to restructure Bryant and Mebane if not cut Bryant keep Mebane.
3) try to sign Jarred Allen to the 1 to 2 yrs team friendly deal.
4) put a 2nd round tender on Doug Baldwin. 2nd best Slot WR but we got Percy and need picks to fill out roster with cheap talent.
5) Draft 3 big pass catchers in 1,2,and 5 rounds for R. Wilson to develop with.
6) extend Earl Thomas, Hauschka and re-sign Michael Bennett.
7) Sign Tate to team friendly deal.
8) let McDonald walk got Hill behind him and try to resign McDaniel to team friendly deal if not let him walk.

 

[drdiags]

You cannot cut someone whose contract has expired, so TJack and McQ don't require any action if you want them gone.

Put me in the group that doesn't see the need/desire to sign Allen, though the scuttlebutt was prior to the trade deadline there was interest. At least if you believe that Rappoport (sp?) fellow.

 

[kearly]

Even money Schofield ends up on the Titans. I think Pete is high on Mayowa, his Clemons clone. They protected him all year for a reason.

Why the Titans? Just curious.

Regarding Mayowa, I personally think he's more of a Schofield Clone than a Clemons clone. He's interesting enough that they'd be crazy not to hold onto him for a few years to see what happens, but his physical tools are much more like a 3-4 OLB than a true 4-3 DE, so I think at best he'll be another Schofield type. If Schofield is cheap I'd really like to see Seattle hold on, though Mayowa might develop enough next year to count as quality depth, and Bennett can play LEO if needed. Those points are true.

Miller is gone. McCoy will be back, Willson is developing as a better target, but I could definitely see us getting a cheap FA or rookie blocking tight end. I don't share your high opinion of Kellen Davis.

I should have clarified that Davis is one of those guys like Tjack who will get a contract but won't be assured a spot on the team. My offseason plan has the following TE group: ASJ, Willson, McCoy, Davis. Seattle probably wouldn't keep Davis as a 4th TE, he'd only make the team in event of injury.

Breno did develop, but I could see Bowie replacing him purely for the money. I am extremely curious to see how much of the line shuffling late in the year was tied to seeing who they want to keep.

I don't think Bowie is an NFL tackle. Too stiff... too many good pass rushers in our division. I think replacing Breno for Bowie would be a big mistake. Bailey could probably handle it, but Bailey hasn't seen much time at tackle.

I agree, there was a lot of intrigue with the OL at the end of the season. Bowie at guard, Bailey at TE in those jumbo packages. Bailey kicked some serious ass at times run blocking in XLVIII btw, though you might expect that lining up at TE.

As far as the draft, I think we know by now they will take a CB at some point, an athletic linebacker, and a versatile line player. Will they go after a big body WR and TE early is really my big question. With Percy, I have to wonder if there will be a change in philosophy.

Even with Percy Seattle still has a size deficit at WR. If Rice goes, I don't see how Seattle can sidestep the issue. TE could be an area they skimp on though if they want.

Most of all, I wonder if there is going to be a big surprise cut or lack of interest in signing one of our own that will shock us all. I think there will be a couple of those. There were a handful of guys red shirted this year that we really have no idea how they are medically or what the real opinion of them is in Pete's mind, and that will have a major impact on who stays and who goes.

Agreed. Good points.

 

[kearly]

Very interesting read. I like the choices you made with our existing players.

With that said, I hate almost everything about your Section III: Free Agency.

I like Jared Allen. I don't like adding his age to the Seahawks, and I don't think that at this stage of his career that he offers anything we can't find younger and cheaper.

Polamalu has been playing poorly the last couple of years.

The Alexander idea is the only one I can remotely get behind.

I admit I haven't watched a ton of Polamalu lately, but he still makes "holy shit" big plays and he still has enough speed. I think for one season, he'd make an incredible 3rd safety who might see the field on 50-60% of the snaps. This assumes he'd come cheap. Otherwise, no dice. Seattle has a history of pursuing old DBs with HoF credentials.

If you got Allen on a John Abraham type deal there is no foreseeable way you'd find a better pass rusher for less money in 2014. I believe Schefter when he said Seattle was kicking the tires on an Allen trade. I think he could be on our radar this offseason, just not sure if they money will work out.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Very interesting read. I like the choices you made with our existing players.

With that said, I hate almost everything about your Section III: Free Agency.

I like Jared Allen. I don't like adding his age to the Seahawks, and I don't think that at this stage of his career that he offers anything we can't find younger and cheaper.

Polamalu has been playing poorly the last couple of years.

The Alexander idea is the only one I can remotely get behind.

I admit I haven't watched a ton of Polamalu lately, but he still makes "holy shit" big plays and he still has enough speed. I think for one season, he'd make an incredible 3rd safety who might see the field on 50-60% of the snaps. This assumes he'd come cheap. Otherwise, no dice. Seattle has a history of pursuing old DBs with HoF credentials.

If you got Allen on a John Abraham type deal there is no foreseeable way you'd find a better pass rusher for less money in 2014. I believe Schefter when he said Seattle was kicking the tires on an Allen trade. I think he could be on our radar this offseason, just not sure if they money will work out.

I like Allen for his pass rush, but he *can* be a major liability when it comes to the run when he doesn't hold his gap, so I assume if Seattle got him, they're putting him in the Nascar package.

 

[Scottemojo]

Ray Horton is on the Titans, and Schofield was heart and soul one of Ray's guys down in AZ. If Tennessee has room and coin for him, I think he gives them a shot first.

 

[kearly]

I disagree on McDaniel and Hauschka.
Kickers are a dime a dozen we can find one easily.
As for McDaniel, I think he walks, we have Williams and Hill waiting in the wings to take his spot, let's stay young and cheap at that position. And we should sign mcdonald

Kickers ARE a dime a dozen which has really helped keep Hauschka's price down. I definitely think Hauschka will test free agency, and if any team steps up to claim him Seattle will probably wave goodbye. One team that I think might step up is the Saints. I do think Hauschka's value on special teams merits the cost, but I agree in the sense that it is at best 50/50 that he actually returns.

I think if more people had studied our DL depth they would not consider McDaniel/McDonald/Mebane/Bryant easily expendable. The first three guys are all multi-dimensional: they can anchor, they can shed blocks and they can generate pressures and TFLs. Hill is not multidimensional- his ability to anchor is a half-notch better than Craig Terrill's was. As much as I love Brooks, he hasn't proven anything in real games and this is too soon to count on him. Williams seems like a long-shot to make a 53 man roster at this point, and not just because of his knee issues either. The only backup who might work out as a multi-dimensional DT could be the bigger version of Greg Scruggs. He added a good amount of weight last offseason before getting hurt.

I think if Seattle does hemorrhage some DT talent in FA, they will need to address that area in the draft or in the lowest wrung of FA. When Seattle let Alan Branch go, they found McDaniel dirt cheap. Maybe there is another McDaniel out there flying under the radar in FA. Very well could be. But either way, this is an area that I would not put on the existing backups. Not yet. Some of them don't fit the role of the guys they'd be replacing, and the ones that do are still pretty green.

 

[kearly]

Polamalu? I just don't see him signing in Seattle to be a third safety behind 2 of the best in the game. He will want to start. I might actually see him in SF tho if the 49ers let Whitner walk.

From 2010 to 2012 Seattle played most snaps with a three safety defense. That changed in 2013 when personnel issues forced the team to stick with just Kam and Earl. I definitely think Seattle will be eyeballing a 3rd safety this offseason, preferably a downhill type guy. As far as his desire to play, I seriously doubt he'd rather play 100% of the snaps for an average NFL team than 60% of the snaps for the NFL's biggest contender, especially since it's run by his college coach. Money is the more likely issue, but he's already got a lot in the bank.

 

[kearly]

I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

When DC's stopped respecting our WRs, our offense imploded. It's not about production, it's about stretching a defense.

I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

If they find a way to lock up Earl and Sherm (w/ room for Russell next year) and then draft well, then I think that's a win for the off-season. If they extend those guys AND somehow retain Bennett and Tate, then it's a home run -- just not sure if it's realistic.

"Must haves" are one thing, but then there are the other 45-50 spots on the roster. Ultimately, all that really matters is that Seattle achieves bang for the buck. That can be accomplished in FA as well as the draft. The additions of Avril, Bennett, and especially McDaniel were huge bang for the buck moves that were a big reason why Seattle became NFL champions.

I personally believe that signing Tate for $3 million a season is a fantastic bang for the buck move.

 

[Natethegreat]

Kearly, I brought this up earlier in a thread but is there any chance in your opinion that BB could convert to safety? He can hit and has decent coverage skills not to mention good size. Seems to me if he was willing he could possibly be that third safety you are talking about.

 

[DavidSeven]

I personally believe that signing Tate for $3 million a season is a fantastic bang for the buck move.

I definitely agree with this and if he could be had for that amount, then it's a no-brainer. I just don't think that's realistic.

IMO, Tate's production puts him in line with Amendola/Hartline. Both make about $6 million/yr. Jordy Nelson signed for $3 million/yr coming off a 500 yard season. He's worth a lot more now. Burleson left Seattle (his hometown) for $5 million/yr, even though PC/JS said they wanted him back. $5-6 million seems to be the sweet spot for a proven WR2, which I think Tate is.

If signing Tate is the difference between extending and not-extending Sherman, then I think you extend Sherman. Using that $5-6 million allotment of cap wouldn't be worth entering a bidding war for the best CB in the NFL next year. You can roll with Percy, Doug, Kearse, 2nd/3rd round WR, Lockette and maybe Rice on a small "prove it" deal.

 

[WilsonMVP]

I bet we extend/restructure Avril. He played really cheap this year, and has about a 10M cap hit next year.

Ya I could see them doing that. He is only 27. A 4 year deal or something

 

[WilsonMVP]

I'm pretty sure Bryant is gone if J. Williams is healthy or if the draft yields results.

What Seattle really needs is a 10 million dollar lift in the salary cap.

I heard with the new deal for thursday night football it will raise the cap for next offseason. I might be wrong though but I swear I read that.