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This probably won't be an exact science, and as always I'll be presenting what I consider to be an "ideal" offseason, one where the breaks generally roll our way without becoming deliriously unrealistic. Seattle has averaged in excess of 250 player personnel moves per season since PC/JS took over, and in this post I might cover 30 of them. This isn't a completist plan, it's just a way of looking at this offseason and presenting a course of action that I think will probably (in portions) resemble what might actually happen, while also having things my way from time to time.
Section I: Cap Space
Current available cap space: $2,201,197
Seattle's cap space is the 9th lowest in the NFL. It is so low that just to re-sign their own free agents they'd have to free up several million dollars from existing contracts. Pete Carroll had his end of season presser today, and you couldn't help but notice how uncharacteristically vague he was. The reason? Even he doesn't know what the team needs will be, because it hasn't yet been decided which areas on the team will fall on the sword to make cap room.
Releasing Sidney Rice will save $7.3 million.
Zach Miller has a base salary of $5.8 million, none of which is guaranteed except for $1 million if he remains on the roster after his roster bonus comes due (probably in March). It's likely he'd be released before that point. He also has $1 million of his signing bonus due in 2015 that would roll into this year's number if he's cut, so for all intents and purposes cutting Zach Miller tomorrow would save $4.8 million.
Red Bryant also has a roster bonus deadline ($3 million). If he's released before that deadline, Seattle would save $5.5 million ($7.5 million - $2 million in signing bonus dead money). Red Bryant turns 30 in April.
Chris Clemons is in the final year of his deal and as a result he wouldn't have any signing bonus money escalate. Releasing Clemons would save $7.5 million.
Releasing Brandon Mebane would save $5.3 million ($5.5m base salary minus 200k accelerated signing bonus from 2015). Brandon Mebane turns 30 a couple of weeks before SB XLIX.
There are other players Seattle might consider releasing too of course, perhaps even some players on rookie contracts. For example, James Carpenter is slated to earn $1.3 million next season. If Seattle decides they want to go a different direction at guard through the draft and they are desperate to free up cash, Carp could end up a casualty, though I wouldn't expect this to happen until the 53 man cutdown date, if ever. My version of this plan keeps Carpenter, but if he does end up being let go it shouldn't blow anyone's mind given the potential changes we should all expect on the OL over the next year or so.
Seattle has no choice, at least a few players must be released or restructured this offseason. Even if they let ALL of their free agents walk, they wouldn't even have enough money right now to sign their 2014 draft class as things currently stand. Yep, money is pretty tight. So with that said, let the purge begin:
Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and Chris Clemons are outright released.
Seattle successfully restructures Red Bryant's deal from $7.5 million to $4 million. If he refuses, it is very likely that he will command trade value. I had thought of just trading Bryant straight up as the savings would be enormous and we might get a shiny pick coming back, but the fact is that guys like Bryant are not as easy to find in the offseason as we might have once believed, and their attempt at replacing Bryant last year- ThaMonsta- might never play a meaningful snap in the NFL because of various issues, particularly his degenerative knee.
Seattle successfully restructures Brandon Mebane's base salary from $5.5 million to $3.5 million. That number is just a little bit more than what Alan Branch signed for in his two recent contracts, and way more than what Tony McDaniel accepted last season ($890k). Maybe Seattle also adjusts Mebane's 2015 salary too, but for the purposes of this post I'm only worrying about his 2014 salary.
These moves free up a total of $25.1 million, which when combined with their existing space gives them $27.3 million to spend. That sounds like a lot, but Seattle has a lot of players to sign back and they also want to give big extensions to players entering the final years of their deals.
Section II: In-House Free Agency
While it's been said that extending Earl Thomas beyond 2014 is Seattle's top priority, which I do not doubt is true, the same exact thing was said of Kam Chancellor last year during their celebratory contract extension press conference, and Kam wasn't extended until late April. Sometimes just because something is the most important doesn't mean it's the first thing you take care of. Seattle wants to extend Earl, but they have potentially over a year to make that move. They only have a month and change to make decisions about this year's free agent class. Seattle will make decisions about free agency first, and once the dust has settled, only then will they speak to Sherman and Thomas, unless Thomas agrees to a massively favorable deal very early in the process.
I think Michael Bennett will be the first player Seattle takes care of. And I would be stunned if he's allowed to hit open free agency.
The more interesting question is this, just what exactly is the market like for pass rushers? Bennett, Avril, Umenyiora, and Abraham were all strong options last year. Avril ended up getting the biggest deal, and he signed for just 2 years $13 million. (Actually, 3-4 OLB Paul Kruger signed for 5/40.5 last offseason, but he was signed by The Three Stooges in Cleveland, so I'm not sure if he counts). That's an extremely soft market. If the Giants and Panthers are smart enough to lock up Greg Hardy and Justin Tuck before FA, then it's likely that 2014's free agent pass rusher class will once again be headlined by 2nd tier players, the same kind that left GMs feeling indifferent a year ago.
So maybe this is a bit optimistic, but I don't really feel too nervous about Michael Bennett getting any 6/60 type offers from other GMs. I think 5/35 with a high amount of guaranteed money probably gets it done. That said, the lack of certainty over the pass rusher market could lead to Seattle having Bennett test the market after negotiations begin too far apart, and if that happens his price tag is impossible to predict.
The next most essential re-signee is a guy nobody is talking about but really should be. Clinton McDonald. Not only were Clinton McDonald's 5.5 sacks last season among the league leaders for defensive tackles, but he became the defacto 1-tech in Seattle's situational pass rush defense last season, which was especially evident in the Super Bowl where his ability to collapse the pocket was a major factor in Seattle's now legendary beatdown of G.O.A.T. QB Peyton Manning.
Of course, sacks are misleading and to that point, McDonald only had 3 sacks in his final 16 games. But the pressure he created was very real all the same, and his anchoring ability against the run is not far behind Brandon Mebane or Tony McDaniel. McDonald has developed into a very nice, well rounded interior player, and he's just entering his prime at 27 years of age. It will be interesting if he slips under the radar with those sack numbers, or if teams will think "one year wonder." Either way, I'd gladly have Seattle throw an Alan Branch type deal at McDonald. Specifically, that would be 4 years, $11 million.
I know that McDaniel has a bit of an injury prone history and he's not the youngest player (nearly identical age to Brandon Mebane), but he was a terrific addition this season and would be very difficult to replace if let go. I don't see him commanding much money, either. Though he'd certainly be worth quite a bit more than he was last offseason coming off an injury plagued stint with Miami. I think Seattle could keep him for 2 years, $5 million. I'd be willing to go higher but I don't think it would likely be necessary.
Seattle could put a 2nd round RFA tender on Doug Baldwin for roughly $2 million, and I think that's probably what they will do. I think Baldwin deserves a contract extension sooner rather than later, but such a move would probably occur after the draft when the rest of the offseason has played out. Seattle may possibly go with a 1st round tender if they fear a late picking team with big WR needs like the 49ers or Patriots making a move. I think Seattle would rather have Doug Baldwin than a late 2nd round pick.
Steven Hauschka. This guy has been great every single season he's been with Seattle, and yet every year he sits in FA and gets zero attention. Does that change a year after he nearly goes perfect and leads the NFL in scoring? I think it does, as much as it pains me to say it. I think somebody else pays the Hausch just a little bit more than Pete likes, and Pete remembers Hauschka balking at a crucial 53 yard attempt in the NFCCG. That was actually the smart thing for Hauschka to do and we should all thank him for it, but employers hate hearing "I can't" from employees, and I wouldn't be surprised if that episode sticks in Pete's memory.
That said, I'm playing the role of GM in this post and to me, paying Steven Hauschka like a top 10 kicker in this league is money well spent. 3 years, $6 million. There you go.
With more established players like Michael Vick and Matt Cassel being on the backup QB market, I think a repeat of last year's contract is a real possibility for T-Jack. 1 year, $1.5 million. If a rookie contract player beats out Tjack for the job, it would save Seattle $1 million, so I would expect BJ Daniels and any 2014 draft process prospects to be given every opportunity to do so.
Anthony McCoy will probably sign for a 1 year, minimum type deal. 1 year, $730k.
Kellen Davis could be had for the minimum and was a solid TE this past season. 1 year, $855k.
Some have argued that Fed-ex field cost Seattle a ring in 2012 when Chris Clemons went down for the count and Seattle had no functional pass rushing depth. I'd like to avoid that scenario in future seasons, and O'Brien Schofield offers Seattle a quality regular for such a role. He's not a threat for 10 sacks, but he's a good athlete who plays the run very well for his size and attacks the edge against the run as well as anybody. He's a hustling type of pass rusher but even those guys can make a difference. He'll likely come very cheap, and he's just entering his prime at 27 years of age. 1 year, $1 million.
I'm more of a Breno-backer than ever, during a season when he seemed to be the only member of Seattle's OL to take a clear step forward. Though I like Bowie and Bailey, I think Bowie's future is inside, and Bailey is totally unproven at tackle. Giacomini's previous contract (2/4.5) basically paid him like a good backup, and in this case he'd be the established guy so I'm thinking a pay raise is in order. 2/7 is probably a fair deal for a player who's contributions are better than his rep.
The only thing sweeter than winning a championship was doing it without inflating Golden Tate's value. Tate was extremely quiet in the postseason, after being undeniably Seattle's most valuable receiver in the regular season, at least if measured by stats. A 3 year deal would give Tate a chance for a 3rd contract before turning 30. I think 3/10 probably gets it done. I don't think his value around the league is anywhere near where Tate's actual onfield value is.
Departing free agents:
Brandon Browner: Even though Browner figures to be a bargain, and even though Seattle might be the one team in the NFL that can wait as long as needed for Browner's indefinite suspension to end, the fact is that he was just average this past season in coverage, and didn't force the turnovers and big plays that he had in previous years. He also turns 30 before the season starts. If Seattle wasn't desperate for cash, I'd be fine with a low cost deal, when balancing the cost with the benefit, it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile expenditure for a team like Seattle that can turn late round picks and UDFAs into above average starting corners.
Walter Thurmond: This one hurts, but after showing flashes of greatness in 2011 and 2012, Thurmond looked just so-so in semi-extended action in 2013. Seattle is just a few months away from having maybe the most expensive secondary in NFL history. Given Seattle's reputation in the secondary I don't expect Thurmond to be a bargain basement player in free agency, and I just don't think he's worth paying $3-4 million to keep around when guys like DeShawn Shead are basically just as good.
Mike-Rob: This one is REALLY tough, but Coleman showed me just enough in that last game before getting hurt where I feel that moving on from Mike-Rob no longer feels like swallowing razors. Though Robinson was a minor star in 2012, he was closer to serviceable in 2013 and his projection for 2014 would be a replacement level player who's real value comes from his chemistry and his leadership. If Seattle had $50 million in space, keeping Mike-Rob on a low cost deal would be a no-brainer, but they don't.
Chris Maragos: We didn't see a whole lot of Chris Maragos the last few years. When he played in the preseason, he was okay. When he was on the field in real games, he made the single worst play of the season, maybe the worst play in franchise history when he botched a hold then flipped the ball to a Titans' defender for a stunning defensive touchdown on the first half's final play. Also known as the play the made me most want to strangle a small animal right after it happened. When Maragos subbed in for Earl Thomas late in the Saints playoff game, he was so nervous that his facial expression literally looked like he was passing a kidney stone. Not that I think Maragos is a joke or terrible, but I no longer think we can't do better with a late pick, especially since that pick would make about half of Maragos' salary, even if he signs for the minimum.
Paul McQuistan: Even though McQuistan's final season here was honestly pretty bad (a couple early preseason games aside), I'll remember this guy fondly. I hope he finds a job somewhere and gets to play a few more seasons. If Steve Vallos can see snaps in the Super Bowl protecting the likes of Peyton Manning, then surely there's a place somewhere for Paul McQuistan.
(There are quite a few other departing Seahawks, but I didn't want to comment on every single one of them).
Bennett: 5/35 ($17 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $6 million)
McDonald: 4/11 ($5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $2.5 million)
McDaniel: 2/5 ($2 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $2 million)
Baldwin: 1/2 (2nd round RFA tender)
Hauschka: 3/6 (2014 cap hit $2 million)
Tjack: 1/1.5
McCoy: 1/0.73
Davis: 1/0.855
Schofield: 1/1
Giacomini: 2/7 ($2.5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $3 million)
Tate: 3/10 ($3.5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $3 million)
Total in-house 2014 FA cap hit: $24.585 million. That leaves just $2.715 million left over and we're just getting started here. Yee-ikes.
Section III: Free Agency
The Seahawks have the NFL's biggest free agency advantage and it isn't even close. Unfortunately, they just don't have the money to really take advantage of it, not unless Seattle bids farewell to some players who could be kept on contacts that exceed their on-field value.
For my plan, I have Seattle standing pat in free agency- the money just isn't there. Of the money that remains, nearly all of it will need to be allocated for Seattle's 2014 draft class and UDFA signings.
That said, there are three Free agency period options that I would be excited to see Seattle pursue. They aren't a part of this offseason plan, I just think it would be cool if these things somehow happened.
The first would be signing former Vikings DE Jared Allen to a similar kind of deal that John Abraham got last year (2/4.6). Allen is still playing at a high level and will likely hear MUCH better offers, but for a guy who's never been the big game and only came close once, a guy who's already got tens of millions in the bank, I think this is a pretty easy choice for him and he'd be ecstatic to sign for less money to play for Seattle. Especially since he'd be playing for a coach that encourages players to just be themselves, and Allen is one of the quirkier characters in the league.
The second would be to sign Troy Polumalu to a low cost contract in the event that he is released by the Steelers. The Steelers enter this offseason in a world of pain. Look at how tough this offseason plan is when starting with less than $3 million in space- the Steelers are starting their offseason with NEGATIVE $12.6 million in space. Polamalu turns 33 in April, is owed $8.25 million next season and is playing for a team that is very clearly on the precipice of rebuilding mode. He can still play on a high level, he was Pete's favorite all-time player at USC, and though he wouldn't be a long term fixture in Seattle he'd be the perfect player to man Seattle's 3rd safety in their big nickle defense, which is a remaining area of need as Jeron Johnson has struggled with injuries recently and has been essentially a replacement level player in real games.
The third would be to take a gamble on free agency's most explosive free agent: Danario Alexander. Alexander is one of the most injury prone players in the league, but he was also the NFL's most dominant receiver over the 2nd half of the 2012 season (he missed the entire 2013 season from injury). He's 6'5" with incredible speed, and ability after the catch. He has superstar potential at a bargain bin price, but he's also not the kind of guy you can count on. That said, even with Ricardo Lockette's terrific special teams contributions, I'd much rather have Alexander on our roster in the same role and it isn't even close.
I've also mulled the idea of trading some kind of pick for Justin Blackmon, who was put on the trade block a few times in the past year. Blackmon has substance abuse problems and just saw a very promising season cut short after yet another substance abuse suspension- this latest one of the "indefinite" variety. There's also the "problem" that Blackmon is just 6'1", and what Seattle truly needs is a tall WR who provides a certain "fear factor" for opposing DCs. Not sure that guy is Blackmon, even though I personally think he's a very good WR, almost like the AFC's version of Michael Crabtree.
Another guy who's one strike away from a scary suspension and is arguably the NFL's most impressive WR- Josh Gordon. Gordon was shopped earlier this year and a few of us didn't make it much of a secret that we wanted Seattle all over such a trade, and terrified that SF might beat us to the punch. I'd still happily pay a 1st for Gordon even with all his risk, in fact, I'd happily pay two since late 1st round picks are the most overvalued currency in the NFL. That's not a part of this offseason plan, but it is one of those things that I would certainly support if it were to go down.
Section IV: The draft
I think Seattle will trade down out of the first and try to work their way up to 9 or 10 total picks. I can't give a complete mock draft, but I can name a couple guys I think are more likely than most, while covering the positions I expect to be drafted on day 3.
I expect Seattle to draft with a bias towards adding weapons with size, and it just so happens there are a couple of guys early in this draft who really fit the bill for this need.
In the first round, I think Seattle will strongly consider Austin Seferian-Jenkins should he reach their pick, which most current projections are suggesting is likely. Seferian-Jenkins has been measured unofficially at 6'7" coming out of high school. He might measure at the combine at 6'6", but regardless, this is a guy who plays the game like he's the tallest man on the field. He also high points the ball very well and runs excellent routes while catching passes with strong, reliable hands.
He'd be drawing comparisons to guys like Tony Gonzalez if not for the fact that his final college season saw a dip in statistical production. There's also talk about his inability to threaten deep the way that Jimmy Graham can, but Gonzalez didn't build his HOF career off of 80 yard TD passes and neither will Seferian-Jenkins. He built it off of working his way open and consistently out-muscling defenses to the football, then holding on for tough catches on critical 3rd down targets.
Seferian-Jenkins may not be a game breaker, but he is a playmaker, especially in the redzone or on 3rd downs, which is really what a TE is supposed to be all about anyway. One of Seattle's problems last year was an inability to make defenses fear them over the middle. Seferian-Jenkins would change that. Seferian-Jenkins won't be a 1000 receiver with us, but he could create enough mismatches to not only improve our offense on 3rd downs (a problem area last season), but enough of a fear factor to make DC's think twice about vacating the middle of the field to auto-blitz.
In the second round, I would love to see Seattle snag Rutgers freak of nature Brandon Coleman. He's 6'6" with speed and long arms. Though he has his ugly moments and draft grades for him range anywhere from the first to the fourth round, there is no question that the "fear factor" with him is very high. His 19.2 yards per catch average in college will certainly not escape defensive coordinators attention, and it's not like a lot of defenses feel great about putting corners one on one with a 6'6" guy running a go route with 4.4 type speed. Seattle's big problem on offense this year stemmed from defenses cheating up to attack our QB because they knew they could get away with 1 on 1 coverages. Guys like Harvin and Coleman would close the book on that tendency real quick, whether they end up 1000 yard receivers or not.
As far as the rest of the draft (no third rounder, and extra fifth), I expect Seattle to draft OL. My plan doesn't mention Lemuel Jeanpierre, who is a restricted FA but won't be worth the $1.3 million minimum tag number. Whether or not Seattle signs him back on a minimum deal has everything to do with how the draft falls. Seattle should be looking at run blocking centers in this draft, and adding just a little depth to the guard/tackle swing backup spot wouldn't be a bad idea either. Seattle should also look for Red Bryant types, ideally this should be Red's last year in Seattle because they are going to be desperate for money next offseason. It would also behoove them to look for Clinton McDonald types that can pass rush from the 1-tech without getting killed (that's not Jordan Hill, IMO). They also need free safety depth and a viable 3rd safety for their big nickle packages. And with two corners leaving, it would make sense to add two more late rounders with potential at the corner spots. It's hard to find good pass rushers in the later rounds, but this should be on Seattle's to do list as well, unless they sign both Schofield and Allen.
Section V: Post Draft
Extend Earl Thomas to a new deal that pays him 5/40. This would need to be structured in such a way that his 2014 cap hit wouldn't change much, and the easiest way to do that would be to give Earl a big fat signing bonus. Thomas might ask for more money than this, but I'm guessing this is where the deal ends up. It's the same amount of money that then all-pro Dashon Goldson got in free agency last year, and it's quite a bit more than Kam Chancellor signed for last year (5/29).
As far as Sherman goes, I don't know if we can realistically afford to pay him a year early. It can be done, but doing so would require some huge sacrifices that aren't worth it in my opinion. Seattle should explore trade possibilities here (due diligence) and be prepared to slap a franchise tag on Sherman next season. If John Schneider does extend both Earl and Sherman this offseason while keeping most of his free agents, I will be extremely impressed.
Section I: Cap Space
Current available cap space: $2,201,197
Seattle's cap space is the 9th lowest in the NFL. It is so low that just to re-sign their own free agents they'd have to free up several million dollars from existing contracts. Pete Carroll had his end of season presser today, and you couldn't help but notice how uncharacteristically vague he was. The reason? Even he doesn't know what the team needs will be, because it hasn't yet been decided which areas on the team will fall on the sword to make cap room.
Releasing Sidney Rice will save $7.3 million.
Zach Miller has a base salary of $5.8 million, none of which is guaranteed except for $1 million if he remains on the roster after his roster bonus comes due (probably in March). It's likely he'd be released before that point. He also has $1 million of his signing bonus due in 2015 that would roll into this year's number if he's cut, so for all intents and purposes cutting Zach Miller tomorrow would save $4.8 million.
Red Bryant also has a roster bonus deadline ($3 million). If he's released before that deadline, Seattle would save $5.5 million ($7.5 million - $2 million in signing bonus dead money). Red Bryant turns 30 in April.
Chris Clemons is in the final year of his deal and as a result he wouldn't have any signing bonus money escalate. Releasing Clemons would save $7.5 million.
Releasing Brandon Mebane would save $5.3 million ($5.5m base salary minus 200k accelerated signing bonus from 2015). Brandon Mebane turns 30 a couple of weeks before SB XLIX.
There are other players Seattle might consider releasing too of course, perhaps even some players on rookie contracts. For example, James Carpenter is slated to earn $1.3 million next season. If Seattle decides they want to go a different direction at guard through the draft and they are desperate to free up cash, Carp could end up a casualty, though I wouldn't expect this to happen until the 53 man cutdown date, if ever. My version of this plan keeps Carpenter, but if he does end up being let go it shouldn't blow anyone's mind given the potential changes we should all expect on the OL over the next year or so.
Seattle has no choice, at least a few players must be released or restructured this offseason. Even if they let ALL of their free agents walk, they wouldn't even have enough money right now to sign their 2014 draft class as things currently stand. Yep, money is pretty tight. So with that said, let the purge begin:
Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and Chris Clemons are outright released.
Seattle successfully restructures Red Bryant's deal from $7.5 million to $4 million. If he refuses, it is very likely that he will command trade value. I had thought of just trading Bryant straight up as the savings would be enormous and we might get a shiny pick coming back, but the fact is that guys like Bryant are not as easy to find in the offseason as we might have once believed, and their attempt at replacing Bryant last year- ThaMonsta- might never play a meaningful snap in the NFL because of various issues, particularly his degenerative knee.
Seattle successfully restructures Brandon Mebane's base salary from $5.5 million to $3.5 million. That number is just a little bit more than what Alan Branch signed for in his two recent contracts, and way more than what Tony McDaniel accepted last season ($890k). Maybe Seattle also adjusts Mebane's 2015 salary too, but for the purposes of this post I'm only worrying about his 2014 salary.
These moves free up a total of $25.1 million, which when combined with their existing space gives them $27.3 million to spend. That sounds like a lot, but Seattle has a lot of players to sign back and they also want to give big extensions to players entering the final years of their deals.
Section II: In-House Free Agency
While it's been said that extending Earl Thomas beyond 2014 is Seattle's top priority, which I do not doubt is true, the same exact thing was said of Kam Chancellor last year during their celebratory contract extension press conference, and Kam wasn't extended until late April. Sometimes just because something is the most important doesn't mean it's the first thing you take care of. Seattle wants to extend Earl, but they have potentially over a year to make that move. They only have a month and change to make decisions about this year's free agent class. Seattle will make decisions about free agency first, and once the dust has settled, only then will they speak to Sherman and Thomas, unless Thomas agrees to a massively favorable deal very early in the process.
I think Michael Bennett will be the first player Seattle takes care of. And I would be stunned if he's allowed to hit open free agency.
The more interesting question is this, just what exactly is the market like for pass rushers? Bennett, Avril, Umenyiora, and Abraham were all strong options last year. Avril ended up getting the biggest deal, and he signed for just 2 years $13 million. (Actually, 3-4 OLB Paul Kruger signed for 5/40.5 last offseason, but he was signed by The Three Stooges in Cleveland, so I'm not sure if he counts). That's an extremely soft market. If the Giants and Panthers are smart enough to lock up Greg Hardy and Justin Tuck before FA, then it's likely that 2014's free agent pass rusher class will once again be headlined by 2nd tier players, the same kind that left GMs feeling indifferent a year ago.
So maybe this is a bit optimistic, but I don't really feel too nervous about Michael Bennett getting any 6/60 type offers from other GMs. I think 5/35 with a high amount of guaranteed money probably gets it done. That said, the lack of certainty over the pass rusher market could lead to Seattle having Bennett test the market after negotiations begin too far apart, and if that happens his price tag is impossible to predict.
The next most essential re-signee is a guy nobody is talking about but really should be. Clinton McDonald. Not only were Clinton McDonald's 5.5 sacks last season among the league leaders for defensive tackles, but he became the defacto 1-tech in Seattle's situational pass rush defense last season, which was especially evident in the Super Bowl where his ability to collapse the pocket was a major factor in Seattle's now legendary beatdown of G.O.A.T. QB Peyton Manning.
Of course, sacks are misleading and to that point, McDonald only had 3 sacks in his final 16 games. But the pressure he created was very real all the same, and his anchoring ability against the run is not far behind Brandon Mebane or Tony McDaniel. McDonald has developed into a very nice, well rounded interior player, and he's just entering his prime at 27 years of age. It will be interesting if he slips under the radar with those sack numbers, or if teams will think "one year wonder." Either way, I'd gladly have Seattle throw an Alan Branch type deal at McDonald. Specifically, that would be 4 years, $11 million.
I know that McDaniel has a bit of an injury prone history and he's not the youngest player (nearly identical age to Brandon Mebane), but he was a terrific addition this season and would be very difficult to replace if let go. I don't see him commanding much money, either. Though he'd certainly be worth quite a bit more than he was last offseason coming off an injury plagued stint with Miami. I think Seattle could keep him for 2 years, $5 million. I'd be willing to go higher but I don't think it would likely be necessary.
Seattle could put a 2nd round RFA tender on Doug Baldwin for roughly $2 million, and I think that's probably what they will do. I think Baldwin deserves a contract extension sooner rather than later, but such a move would probably occur after the draft when the rest of the offseason has played out. Seattle may possibly go with a 1st round tender if they fear a late picking team with big WR needs like the 49ers or Patriots making a move. I think Seattle would rather have Doug Baldwin than a late 2nd round pick.
Steven Hauschka. This guy has been great every single season he's been with Seattle, and yet every year he sits in FA and gets zero attention. Does that change a year after he nearly goes perfect and leads the NFL in scoring? I think it does, as much as it pains me to say it. I think somebody else pays the Hausch just a little bit more than Pete likes, and Pete remembers Hauschka balking at a crucial 53 yard attempt in the NFCCG. That was actually the smart thing for Hauschka to do and we should all thank him for it, but employers hate hearing "I can't" from employees, and I wouldn't be surprised if that episode sticks in Pete's memory.
That said, I'm playing the role of GM in this post and to me, paying Steven Hauschka like a top 10 kicker in this league is money well spent. 3 years, $6 million. There you go.
With more established players like Michael Vick and Matt Cassel being on the backup QB market, I think a repeat of last year's contract is a real possibility for T-Jack. 1 year, $1.5 million. If a rookie contract player beats out Tjack for the job, it would save Seattle $1 million, so I would expect BJ Daniels and any 2014 draft process prospects to be given every opportunity to do so.
Anthony McCoy will probably sign for a 1 year, minimum type deal. 1 year, $730k.
Kellen Davis could be had for the minimum and was a solid TE this past season. 1 year, $855k.
Some have argued that Fed-ex field cost Seattle a ring in 2012 when Chris Clemons went down for the count and Seattle had no functional pass rushing depth. I'd like to avoid that scenario in future seasons, and O'Brien Schofield offers Seattle a quality regular for such a role. He's not a threat for 10 sacks, but he's a good athlete who plays the run very well for his size and attacks the edge against the run as well as anybody. He's a hustling type of pass rusher but even those guys can make a difference. He'll likely come very cheap, and he's just entering his prime at 27 years of age. 1 year, $1 million.
I'm more of a Breno-backer than ever, during a season when he seemed to be the only member of Seattle's OL to take a clear step forward. Though I like Bowie and Bailey, I think Bowie's future is inside, and Bailey is totally unproven at tackle. Giacomini's previous contract (2/4.5) basically paid him like a good backup, and in this case he'd be the established guy so I'm thinking a pay raise is in order. 2/7 is probably a fair deal for a player who's contributions are better than his rep.
The only thing sweeter than winning a championship was doing it without inflating Golden Tate's value. Tate was extremely quiet in the postseason, after being undeniably Seattle's most valuable receiver in the regular season, at least if measured by stats. A 3 year deal would give Tate a chance for a 3rd contract before turning 30. I think 3/10 probably gets it done. I don't think his value around the league is anywhere near where Tate's actual onfield value is.
Departing free agents:
Brandon Browner: Even though Browner figures to be a bargain, and even though Seattle might be the one team in the NFL that can wait as long as needed for Browner's indefinite suspension to end, the fact is that he was just average this past season in coverage, and didn't force the turnovers and big plays that he had in previous years. He also turns 30 before the season starts. If Seattle wasn't desperate for cash, I'd be fine with a low cost deal, when balancing the cost with the benefit, it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile expenditure for a team like Seattle that can turn late round picks and UDFAs into above average starting corners.
Walter Thurmond: This one hurts, but after showing flashes of greatness in 2011 and 2012, Thurmond looked just so-so in semi-extended action in 2013. Seattle is just a few months away from having maybe the most expensive secondary in NFL history. Given Seattle's reputation in the secondary I don't expect Thurmond to be a bargain basement player in free agency, and I just don't think he's worth paying $3-4 million to keep around when guys like DeShawn Shead are basically just as good.
Mike-Rob: This one is REALLY tough, but Coleman showed me just enough in that last game before getting hurt where I feel that moving on from Mike-Rob no longer feels like swallowing razors. Though Robinson was a minor star in 2012, he was closer to serviceable in 2013 and his projection for 2014 would be a replacement level player who's real value comes from his chemistry and his leadership. If Seattle had $50 million in space, keeping Mike-Rob on a low cost deal would be a no-brainer, but they don't.
Chris Maragos: We didn't see a whole lot of Chris Maragos the last few years. When he played in the preseason, he was okay. When he was on the field in real games, he made the single worst play of the season, maybe the worst play in franchise history when he botched a hold then flipped the ball to a Titans' defender for a stunning defensive touchdown on the first half's final play. Also known as the play the made me most want to strangle a small animal right after it happened. When Maragos subbed in for Earl Thomas late in the Saints playoff game, he was so nervous that his facial expression literally looked like he was passing a kidney stone. Not that I think Maragos is a joke or terrible, but I no longer think we can't do better with a late pick, especially since that pick would make about half of Maragos' salary, even if he signs for the minimum.
Paul McQuistan: Even though McQuistan's final season here was honestly pretty bad (a couple early preseason games aside), I'll remember this guy fondly. I hope he finds a job somewhere and gets to play a few more seasons. If Steve Vallos can see snaps in the Super Bowl protecting the likes of Peyton Manning, then surely there's a place somewhere for Paul McQuistan.
(There are quite a few other departing Seahawks, but I didn't want to comment on every single one of them).
Bennett: 5/35 ($17 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $6 million)
McDonald: 4/11 ($5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $2.5 million)
McDaniel: 2/5 ($2 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $2 million)
Baldwin: 1/2 (2nd round RFA tender)
Hauschka: 3/6 (2014 cap hit $2 million)
Tjack: 1/1.5
McCoy: 1/0.73
Davis: 1/0.855
Schofield: 1/1
Giacomini: 2/7 ($2.5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $3 million)
Tate: 3/10 ($3.5 million guaranteed, 2014 cap hit $3 million)
Total in-house 2014 FA cap hit: $24.585 million. That leaves just $2.715 million left over and we're just getting started here. Yee-ikes.
Section III: Free Agency
The Seahawks have the NFL's biggest free agency advantage and it isn't even close. Unfortunately, they just don't have the money to really take advantage of it, not unless Seattle bids farewell to some players who could be kept on contacts that exceed their on-field value.
For my plan, I have Seattle standing pat in free agency- the money just isn't there. Of the money that remains, nearly all of it will need to be allocated for Seattle's 2014 draft class and UDFA signings.
That said, there are three Free agency period options that I would be excited to see Seattle pursue. They aren't a part of this offseason plan, I just think it would be cool if these things somehow happened.
The first would be signing former Vikings DE Jared Allen to a similar kind of deal that John Abraham got last year (2/4.6). Allen is still playing at a high level and will likely hear MUCH better offers, but for a guy who's never been the big game and only came close once, a guy who's already got tens of millions in the bank, I think this is a pretty easy choice for him and he'd be ecstatic to sign for less money to play for Seattle. Especially since he'd be playing for a coach that encourages players to just be themselves, and Allen is one of the quirkier characters in the league.
The second would be to sign Troy Polumalu to a low cost contract in the event that he is released by the Steelers. The Steelers enter this offseason in a world of pain. Look at how tough this offseason plan is when starting with less than $3 million in space- the Steelers are starting their offseason with NEGATIVE $12.6 million in space. Polamalu turns 33 in April, is owed $8.25 million next season and is playing for a team that is very clearly on the precipice of rebuilding mode. He can still play on a high level, he was Pete's favorite all-time player at USC, and though he wouldn't be a long term fixture in Seattle he'd be the perfect player to man Seattle's 3rd safety in their big nickle defense, which is a remaining area of need as Jeron Johnson has struggled with injuries recently and has been essentially a replacement level player in real games.
The third would be to take a gamble on free agency's most explosive free agent: Danario Alexander. Alexander is one of the most injury prone players in the league, but he was also the NFL's most dominant receiver over the 2nd half of the 2012 season (he missed the entire 2013 season from injury). He's 6'5" with incredible speed, and ability after the catch. He has superstar potential at a bargain bin price, but he's also not the kind of guy you can count on. That said, even with Ricardo Lockette's terrific special teams contributions, I'd much rather have Alexander on our roster in the same role and it isn't even close.
I've also mulled the idea of trading some kind of pick for Justin Blackmon, who was put on the trade block a few times in the past year. Blackmon has substance abuse problems and just saw a very promising season cut short after yet another substance abuse suspension- this latest one of the "indefinite" variety. There's also the "problem" that Blackmon is just 6'1", and what Seattle truly needs is a tall WR who provides a certain "fear factor" for opposing DCs. Not sure that guy is Blackmon, even though I personally think he's a very good WR, almost like the AFC's version of Michael Crabtree.
Another guy who's one strike away from a scary suspension and is arguably the NFL's most impressive WR- Josh Gordon. Gordon was shopped earlier this year and a few of us didn't make it much of a secret that we wanted Seattle all over such a trade, and terrified that SF might beat us to the punch. I'd still happily pay a 1st for Gordon even with all his risk, in fact, I'd happily pay two since late 1st round picks are the most overvalued currency in the NFL. That's not a part of this offseason plan, but it is one of those things that I would certainly support if it were to go down.
Section IV: The draft
I think Seattle will trade down out of the first and try to work their way up to 9 or 10 total picks. I can't give a complete mock draft, but I can name a couple guys I think are more likely than most, while covering the positions I expect to be drafted on day 3.
I expect Seattle to draft with a bias towards adding weapons with size, and it just so happens there are a couple of guys early in this draft who really fit the bill for this need.
In the first round, I think Seattle will strongly consider Austin Seferian-Jenkins should he reach their pick, which most current projections are suggesting is likely. Seferian-Jenkins has been measured unofficially at 6'7" coming out of high school. He might measure at the combine at 6'6", but regardless, this is a guy who plays the game like he's the tallest man on the field. He also high points the ball very well and runs excellent routes while catching passes with strong, reliable hands.
He'd be drawing comparisons to guys like Tony Gonzalez if not for the fact that his final college season saw a dip in statistical production. There's also talk about his inability to threaten deep the way that Jimmy Graham can, but Gonzalez didn't build his HOF career off of 80 yard TD passes and neither will Seferian-Jenkins. He built it off of working his way open and consistently out-muscling defenses to the football, then holding on for tough catches on critical 3rd down targets.
Seferian-Jenkins may not be a game breaker, but he is a playmaker, especially in the redzone or on 3rd downs, which is really what a TE is supposed to be all about anyway. One of Seattle's problems last year was an inability to make defenses fear them over the middle. Seferian-Jenkins would change that. Seferian-Jenkins won't be a 1000 receiver with us, but he could create enough mismatches to not only improve our offense on 3rd downs (a problem area last season), but enough of a fear factor to make DC's think twice about vacating the middle of the field to auto-blitz.
In the second round, I would love to see Seattle snag Rutgers freak of nature Brandon Coleman. He's 6'6" with speed and long arms. Though he has his ugly moments and draft grades for him range anywhere from the first to the fourth round, there is no question that the "fear factor" with him is very high. His 19.2 yards per catch average in college will certainly not escape defensive coordinators attention, and it's not like a lot of defenses feel great about putting corners one on one with a 6'6" guy running a go route with 4.4 type speed. Seattle's big problem on offense this year stemmed from defenses cheating up to attack our QB because they knew they could get away with 1 on 1 coverages. Guys like Harvin and Coleman would close the book on that tendency real quick, whether they end up 1000 yard receivers or not.
As far as the rest of the draft (no third rounder, and extra fifth), I expect Seattle to draft OL. My plan doesn't mention Lemuel Jeanpierre, who is a restricted FA but won't be worth the $1.3 million minimum tag number. Whether or not Seattle signs him back on a minimum deal has everything to do with how the draft falls. Seattle should be looking at run blocking centers in this draft, and adding just a little depth to the guard/tackle swing backup spot wouldn't be a bad idea either. Seattle should also look for Red Bryant types, ideally this should be Red's last year in Seattle because they are going to be desperate for money next offseason. It would also behoove them to look for Clinton McDonald types that can pass rush from the 1-tech without getting killed (that's not Jordan Hill, IMO). They also need free safety depth and a viable 3rd safety for their big nickle packages. And with two corners leaving, it would make sense to add two more late rounders with potential at the corner spots. It's hard to find good pass rushers in the later rounds, but this should be on Seattle's to do list as well, unless they sign both Schofield and Allen.
Section V: Post Draft
Extend Earl Thomas to a new deal that pays him 5/40. This would need to be structured in such a way that his 2014 cap hit wouldn't change much, and the easiest way to do that would be to give Earl a big fat signing bonus. Thomas might ask for more money than this, but I'm guessing this is where the deal ends up. It's the same amount of money that then all-pro Dashon Goldson got in free agency last year, and it's quite a bit more than Kam Chancellor signed for last year (5/29).
As far as Sherman goes, I don't know if we can realistically afford to pay him a year early. It can be done, but doing so would require some huge sacrifices that aren't worth it in my opinion. Seattle should explore trade possibilities here (due diligence) and be prepared to slap a franchise tag on Sherman next season. If John Schneider does extend both Earl and Sherman this offseason while keeping most of his free agents, I will be extremely impressed.
