Kearly's offseason plan: 2014 edition

SDHawk

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kearly":1flyaaot said:
I personally believe that signing Tate for $3 million a season is a fantastic bang for the buck move.

Won't disagree that this would be a fantastic bang for buck move for the Seahawks but I think that's a slap in the face for Tate. Go try telling Tate he is comparable to Davone Bess or Jason Avant and see if he doesn't feel disrespected.
 

Shock2k

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I think we will actually lose Tate. People here seem to forget he had the second highest punt return yardage in the NFL. His value goes beyond just being a receiver. His film is also going to show his toughness. He will get a good WR2 contract that the Hawks won't be able to compete with. He said he would take less money but that he "wouldn't take an contract that would offend him."

He also said he would take "a LITTLE less money".

I still am not reconciled on how we keep Wilson and Sherman without gutting the team, especially if we are using all the money we get this year cutting folks without looking at next year. If we do cut down on defense we will need to improve on offense, even though 23 points a game against 10th or lower ranked defenses isn't bad.

I see these QB's getting these big contracts and the team's taking a nose dive. Except maybe in the case of Aaron Rogers, but he's going to start loosing receivers also. Not to mention a "long in the tooth" defense.

For some reason though, I just believe in the "magic" of Pete/John. I have a feeling we are still going to do our primary acquisitions through the draft. I hate the salary cap era. You grow to love players and they only last 2 or 3 years. 4 Years is way to long for rookie contracts. If I'm making comparative Peanuts for 4 years, I'm probably looking at maybe 1 major payout.
 

HawkStar22

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It's too bad the NFL doesn't have a system in place where teams have the opportunity to sign "Home grown" players to new contracts without counting against the cap. Imo the seahawks should have the opportunity to sign whoever they drafted/developed without losing them to another team simply because the cap won't allow it.

I understand having a salary cap keeps the competitive balance within the league but isn't there a way they could put a cap on free agent spending but allow teams to offer their own "home grown" players whatever they want. Then it's essentially up to the player whether he wants to stay or not.

It's just frustrating that our front office and coaches have done such an amazing job giving guys chances , making good trades, and developing talent out of later rounds and then we're almost being punished for doing a too good of a job because the cap simply won't allow us to resign all our guys deserving a big contract.

Anyways....

Does anyone know if the 2014-15 salary cap is going to increase? And also I thought I remember reading somewhere that whatever amount under the cap a team is , the next year that amount gets added to their salary cap. So for example if the cap is 125 mil and we were at 123 for the year, wouldn't the next year's cap be 127? Does this apply to the Hawks for 2014?
 

gmor

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RichNhansom":37adckkh said:
DavidSeven":37adckkh said:
I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

It is right now but Wilson is still developing and Lynch is aging. As Lynch moves on this team is going to rely more and more on that passing game and players with monster YAC like Tate are hard to find.

We seen what the Havin effect is now develop Willson, resign McCoy and develop, and find a big body #1 or resign Rice cheap and we likely will be using the pass to set up the run as much as the other way around.

Christine Michael is going to be Lynch's successor and will do well IMO. Just needs to improve blocking skills.
 

gmor

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DavidSeven":285cxy5u said:
I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

If they find a way to lock up Earl and Sherm (w/ room for Russell next year) and then draft well, then I think that's a win for the off-season. If they extend those guys AND somehow retain Bennett and Tate, then it's a home run -- just not sure if it's realistic.

I agree that this is the way it'll go. While all of the FA guys discussed had a part in winning the Championship, if the price isn't right they will go. The guys under contract aren't excepted from this.
 

Shock2k

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gmor":1hnicfyw said:
RichNhansom":1hnicfyw said:
DavidSeven":1hnicfyw said:
I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

It is right now but Wilson is still developing and Lynch is aging. As Lynch moves on this team is going to rely more and more on that passing game and players with monster YAC like Tate are hard to find.

We seen what the Havin effect is now develop Willson, resign McCoy and develop, and find a big body #1 or resign Rice cheap and we likely will be using the pass to set up the run as much as the other way around.

Christine Michael is going to be Lynch's successor and will do well IMO. Just needs to improve blocking skills.

CMike is an interesting case. So let's say Marshawn stays on 2 more years, the CMike has 1 great year. Now you've only had him on the "cheap" for 1 year before you have to give him a big contract. Makes me wonder why we took him in the Second round. Having three fullbacks paid off this year, as we needed all three of them.

So is he really the future, or is he just a future backup for Turbo?
 

vin.couve12

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I absolutely do not like the idea of letting Mebane go. The others I think we'll be ok, but would like Red to restructure.
 

SeahawksEast

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Need to shore up the D first. Remember all the years of no pass rush and the secondary getting eaten alive. No matter how good they are, there is a limit to how long coverage holds. Though Earl is far and away priority #1, Mebane and Clem are two to watch closely.
 

olyfan63

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Some things we've figured out the last two years:

1) Pete and John have a vision and a plan for the team, and it's a really, really amazingly good one. They have their own unique "Moneyball" formula and approach for putting the strongest possible overall team on the field

2) Pete and John are smarter than us, and have much better information to work with

3) Pete and John don't give a crap what all the loudmouths and pundits say, and just do their thing regardless of external hysteria in the media and fanbase. They make their decision, set their direction, and follow thru, letting the chips fall where they may. Usually they fall well.

4) Pete and John's decisions have historically turned out golden, even the ones we all thought were crap (or emotionally didn't like) at the time.
- Parting company with Mike Rob (then bringing him back in time for his ring :) )
- Going with a short rookie 3rd rounder as a starting QB, and benching the expensive free agent QB
- Going cheap on the O-Line with rookies and rejects (aside from Okung and Unger) and somehow making it work, though it was held together with chewing gum and baling twine at times

5) When Pete and John bring in a big-name free agent (e.g., Terrell Owens), generally what happens is they can't beat out the younger guys enough to be worthy paying them (Antoine Winfield). We got some mileage out of Braylon Edwards last year, but that was about it.

6) Pete values special teams play much higher and factors it into roster decisions more than perhaps any other coach in the league; lots of starters play on special teams, and the backup guys who stick on the team are killer ST players, Farwell, Maragos, Lane, (emerging) Lockette, etc.

7) We can expect more surprises and "Huh? They did what?" moments from Pete and John this year in the personnel moves, and most of their surprising moves will work out fine or better.

A few other delightful things that Pete and John have brought to Seattle in their tenure:
- When key injuries strike, going with "next man up" players at key positions and having those players flat out do the job (with some O-line exceptions)
- When injuries strike, they adjust their scheme to plan B and use the talent they have available, and plan B often works out as well as plan A (and sometimes better)
- We feel like we match up physically, smack-down for smack-down, with any team we play, and physically beat most
- The way Pete rotates players, in the D-Line/Front Seven, keeps players fresher and seems to limit injuries
- The rotating O-line sucks at times, but the philosophy has produced mostly serviceable results at a bargain basement price, and allowed more resources to be spent elsewhere.
- Pete and his coaching team under his guidance (Cable, Bevell, Quinn, etc.) are collectively outstanding teachers, and get guys coached up to play well at an unbelievably rapid rate.

Obviously, an exception was last year when we lost Clemons in the playoffs and lost to Atlanta because we had no pass rush. This year, losing the big target of Sidney Rice seriously hurt our passing game against top-tier defenses in our division, and we winged it as best we could. (Thank God for the emergence of Jerome Kearse; not only does he catch, he even blocks punts) When we lost DB's for a few games at the end of the regular season, it was a total yawner, due to the depth and stellar (or at least serviceable) play of next-man-up players like Maxwell, Thurmond, and Lane.

All that said...

WR's
1. I Would love to see Tate back in a Hawks uni. Agree that it's a 50-50 proposition. Tate's YAC are amazing; he's like a RB. That said, Kearse's TD in the Super Bowl made me have to look twice to realize it wasn't Tate, but Kearse on that play. Also, Tate's punt returns were both reliable and fantastic, game-changing at times. Tate as a playmaker has won us about 2 games a season the last 2 years. This year, the first obvious play was the TD vs. the Rams, not the by-bye one, but the amazing broken tackle TD play at St. Louis that wound up being the game-winner on a tough night for the offense; pretty much a play that only Tate could make. (Though Kearse is having more moments... but still Tate is in a class by himself as a RB after the catch)
2. I hope they find a way to restructure Sidney Rice and bring him back, on a team-friendly deal. Can't imaging he commands much market value coming off an ACL and a statistically poor season. That said, Rice's value is more than his stats, as he draws #1 receiver coverage attention.
3. Can't imagine they would let Doug Baldwin get away. Baldwin won at least 2 or 3 games for us this year with unbelievable plays at crucial moments.
4. As others pointed our... our current WR's are the Legion of Smurfs, with the partial exception of Kearse. Pete, and Russell, love big, high-pointing WR's, where Russell can just toss the ball up as a 50-50 in a one on one situation, and know it won't get picked, and had a good chance to be a big play. Kearse has given us a lot of that this year. I expect we pick up a large target WR early in the draft.

DL
1. There are so many, many wildcards here. Who will take team-friendly deals, who will move on to "get paid"? How good are our backups, the Scruggs's and Hill's and Mayowas and such. Will the Monstar's knee ever be good enough to play on, and even if it is, will he still suck anyway? None of us seem to know the real story there.
2. It blows me away that some people can so easily talk about a guy like Brandon Mebane as being expendable. Dude has been an anchor, a rock on our defense.
3. We got lucky, had players really step up and gel as a unit. McDaniel & McDonald simply exceeded all incoming expectations with their play. We need to get lucky again this year.
4. We keep talking about Red Bryant... we'll see what they do this year with him.

I'm already getting worn out thinking about all the position groups. We seem to be well-stocked in the secondary, even if we suffer some losses. Shead, Simon, etc. may be ready to step up. But we need a passable backup for Earl. I have no idea if Maragos is or isn't. I'd love to see if Browner could play safety as Kam's backup. I'm expecting not, but stranger things have happened, and BB definitely brough a physical presence to the team. For the OL, I would like to think we pick up some depth in the draft... We saved a lot of money in that area this year, and it was overly exciting at times. RB's, I think we have one more year of Beastmode in his prime. We'll see what Spencer Ware and others can do this year. Hope CMike can get the issues with his game handled that kept him off the field, so we can see his running this coming year. Probably parting company with Mike Rob. Our linebackers and LEOs... Bruce Irvin had moments this year. We have so much speed in that group it's scary. Malcolm Smith is just one example. LB's are another area where we got really, really good value for money relative to player salaries.

Stopping here. I'm excited to see what Pete and John do, just thinking about this. With a SB win, it has certainly earned Pete and John some latitude regarding player personnel decisions.
 

lukerguy

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Scottemojo":2umxa9n0 said:
What a relief, you finally get to rosterbate. IT was killing you to wait, wasn't it?

I have to assume that there are a lot of details fans are not privy to that will drive a couple of these decisions. I think the FO is high on Scruggs. How does that affect Bennett? Don't get me wrong, I love what he brings, but any deal he signs with Seattle, no matter how long the contract says it is, has to have a team friendly out at 2 or 3 years, simply because he is smallish for a part time DT, and will be nearing 30 by then. We know how this FO feels about 30.

Even money Schofield ends up on the Titans. I think Pete is high on Mayowa, his Clemons clone. They protected him all year for a reason.

WR will be in flux. There is simply no way we keep Rice at his current number and sign both Baldwin and Tate. Baldwin of course is RFA, but I have to assume Seattle would like to sign him longer than a 1 year tender. I personally think Baldwin could be a 100 catch guy in a different scheme, like New England, so if I were him I would take the one year gamble on myself and not sign anything long term in Seattle. I will add to this that while Seattle is a premier destination for free agents now, I don't think that includes receivers and tight ends. Seattle craves a big body guy, and has 3 small body guys. Harvin isn't going anywhere, so unfortunately one of the duo of Tate and Baldwin is expendable. Especially with Kearse developing nicely.

Miller is gone. McCoy will be back, Willson is developing as a better target, but I could definitely see us getting a cheap FA or rookie blocking tight end. I don't share your high opinion of Kellen Davis.
Bowie and Bailey are certainly a part of the future here in Seattle. We most certainly have a dilemma with Okung, who could be facing toe surgery again. No way he gets extended this year. LMJ is gone, Unger needs a development guy behind him, Breno did develop, but I could see Bowie replacing him purely for the money. I am extremely curious to see how much of the line shuffling late in the year was tied to seeing who they want to keep.

As far as the draft, I think we know by now they will take a CB at some point, an athletic linebacker, and a versatile line player. Will they go after a big body WR and TE early is really my big question. With Percy, I have to wonder if there will be a change in philosophy.

Most of all, I wonder if there is going to be a big surprise cut or lack of interest in signing one of our own that will shock us all. I think there will be a couple of those. There were a handful of guys red shirted this year that we really have no idea how they are medically or what the real opinion of them is in Pete's mind, and that will have a major impact on who stays and who goes.

Interesting perspective. I agree mostly but I don't think Bennett is at all related to Scruggs, but more so McDonald= Inside pass rush specialist only. Scruggs isn't nearly as complete. Outside of Kam, ET, Sherman, I'd say Bennett was our D MVP. I think he'll resign.
 

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I think Kenny Britt signs a 1-2 yr contact for cheap cheap with no guaranteed money and tears it up. It's either us or NE.
 

lukerguy

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SDHawk":2qhmxvkj said:
kearly":2qhmxvkj said:
I personally believe that signing Tate for $3 million a season is a fantastic bang for the buck move.

Won't disagree that this would be a fantastic bang for buck move for the Seahawks but I think that's a slap in the face for Tate. Go try telling Tate he is comparable to Davone Bess or Jason Avant and see if he doesn't feel disrespected.

I don't think Tate makes less than 4.5. I think someone is going to offer 5 yrs 25 million. Someone in the AFC with a good team.
 

olyfan63

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Tate deserves to get paid. Dude consistently makes game-changing plays in big games against tough teams. Both in the passing game and punt returns. I agree 3 mil would be a slap in the face. If we could get him back for 4.5 mil that seems like a win.
 

EverydayImRusselin

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lukerguy":39lpq65u said:
SDHawk":39lpq65u said:
kearly":39lpq65u said:
I personally believe that signing Tate for $3 million a season is a fantastic bang for the buck move.

Won't disagree that this would be a fantastic bang for buck move for the Seahawks but I think that's a slap in the face for Tate. Go try telling Tate he is comparable to Davone Bess or Jason Avant and see if he doesn't feel disrespected.

I don't think Tate makes less than 4.5. I think someone is going to offer 5 yrs 25 million. Someone in the AFC with a good team.

I think Tate is going to get at least 5/$30m kind of offer. That's why I don't think he's coming back.
 

Grahamhawker

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lukerguy":3uzodtdj said:
I think Kenny Britt signs a 1-2 yr contact for cheap cheap with no guaranteed money and tears it up. It's either us or NE.

My son brought Britt up a few weeks ago.

Why not? Seems like a great case to self-resurrect and could pay off big time.
 

SeatownJay

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Since Blitzer is being uncharacteristically positive so far, I'll fill in for him.

We're screwed. We need to cut a bunch of players, we won't be able to afford to re-sign any of our own free agents or afford other team's players, and we don't have enough draft picks to restock via that route. We'll be lucky to finish above .500 next year.

Sherman's going to feel slighted when we can't afford to make him the highest paid corner in the game and he's going to sign with Arizona so he can face us and San Fran twice a year.

All these salary issues will cause problems in the locker room. Pete will finally start to feel his age after next season and he retires, leading to the hiring of Lane Kiffin to be our new coach who will promptly ruin Russell Wilson.

There, now don't we all feel better?
 
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