Kearly's offseason plan: 2014 edition

[HunnyBadger]

Is there any info on Breno's knee? I want Breno on the team, but is his knee a chronic concern?

 

[Marvin49]

Just a couple things from a fan of another team...

...Niners won't make a move on Baldwin if they have to give up a high pick AND the money. Just not what they do. Its also not as huge a need if Boldin comes back with both Crab and Patton healthy. They'll draft a player that will be stuck on that rookie deal for awhile. Patriots? Maybe.

Polamalu? I just don't see him signing in Seattle to be a third safety behind 2 of the best in the game. He will want to start. I might actually see him in SF tho if the 49ers let Whitner walk.

Allen? I can see him taking a discount, but not THAT big a discount...especially when you will already have Bennett and Avril on the roster. I could be wrong though.

 

[Marvin49]

I got as far as Doug Baldwin 2nd round and the 49ers making a move.

Doug Baldwin moving to SF is as likely as Jacksonville winning the superbowl. I will continue to read. Interesting so far

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the idea. I've even read some Niner fans posting to the effect that they'd like to see it happen.

I think that they might have interest, but I don't see them giving up a 2.

I think he has issues with Harbaugh tho.

 

[aawolf]

Great stuff. I'm inclined to agree with most of what you say, but I have a few issues:

1. We need to worry also about freeing up money for next year, when Wilson is going to need to be taken care of. I see a few more cap casualties being sacrificed because of this fact.

2. I say we go heavy O-line in the draft for the first round and hopefully one of the TE or WR picks that you have identified (or someone with similar skills, size, and speed at TE or WR) will be there in round 2 or 3.

 

[HawkFan72]

Mrob is probably gone...honestly I hope he retires. Love that guy. It's time to move on though, with his production down and he's on the wrong side of his career :/

Yeah, now that he has his ring I won't be as sad if we need to move on. I'm glad he was able to come back for the ride, but now he's at the point where he will probably have to play for a weak team trying to improve their running game with a vet FB if he wants to stay in the NFL (Titans and Giants were interested last year).

 

[SDHawk]

Jared Allen and Polamalu are too old. See Antoine Winfield.

I want 6'6/245lbs Aaron Lynch in the middle rounds as a moderate risk/extremely high upside prospect to rotate with Avril and Mayowa. He can also line up inside in nickel packages and spell Bennett in the future. Lynch reminds of Aldon Smith.

As for big safeties, check out 6'3/215lbs Lonnie Ballentine from Memphis. Boseko Lokombo might also be a nice SS prospect in the mold of Kam Chancellor.

DX's career is over. He's had more knee surgeries than seasons in the NFL. I'd rather keep Sidney on a restructured deal.

I think Seattle would take a 2nd rounder for Baldwin but it depends on how confident we are about bringing back Tate. If Tate is likely to go, I would put a 1st round tender on Baldwin. Tate is probably worth somewhere around $5mm to $6.5mm a year with roughly $8mm in guarantees.

I want 6'7/270lbs TE Troy Niklas out of ND.

Both McDaniel and McDonald will command larger contracts this offseason making it difficult to retain both. We also have Greg Scruggs, Michael Brooks and Jordan Hill. I'm not sure any are big enough to replace McDaniel on base packages so perhaps if I had to choose one to bring back, it would be McDaniel.

Bennett is gonna be expensive but he's clearly the priority re-signing this offseason. If we don't get Bennett, I would look at 6'3/280lbs George Uko in the middle rounds as a potential replacement and to complete with the above mentioned Scruggs and Brooks.

Bailey might be the future at LG. I could see us rotating the two big bodies at LG until Bailey is ready to go full time. I thought the coaching staff showed confidence in Bailey when they ran behind him consecutive times in the superbowl. He got blown up on the first attempt but they were successful on the next attempt when Marshawn got in for the TD.

I like bringing back Breno on an incentive laden deal. I do want to draft a swing T/G that can push Breno for the job. Bowie is an adequate fill-in but I wouldn't feel comfortable banking on him for the future. 6'7/340lbs Seantrel Henderson and 6'5/315lbs Laurent Duvernay-Tardif are very intriguing prospects in the middle rounds.

As for CBs. I want to see us bring back Walter Thurmond on a team friendly deal. He is our best slot corner, despite the fact that he could not keep up with Welker in SB48. I also like a handful of CBs in this upcoming draft, particularly 6'3/215lbs Keith McGill, Stanley Jean-Baptiste and a 6'2/210lbs Canadian by the name of Andrew Lue.

My offseason plan here: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=88103

 

[ivotuk]

Some Cold Hard Facts from John Clayton seem to go perfectly with this topic.

http://mynorthwest.com/category/pod_pla ... 026&n=Cold Hard Facts

http://mynorthwest.com/category/pod_pla ... 026&n=Cold Hard Facts

Edit: Great thoughts as usual.

The other thing I would consider is what are the other 3 teams doing? I would like to see a TE and improvement on the Offensive Line because of the pass rush abilities the other 3 teams have.

AZ: Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell, Daryl Washington
St Louis: Chris Long, Robert Quinn, possibly Jadaveon Clowney
SF: Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Navarro Bowman.

I believe we should keep McDonald and IIRC, Tony McDaniel signed a 2 year deal. The only non-starters for the DLine that I like are Greg Scruggs and Michael Brooks. Jordan Hill is just so-so and The Monstar might never play a down in the NFL with that knee.

 

[Northhawk]

There are changes that will be required due to contract situations and other reasons but we'll see how much change there will be overall.

Pete keeps signalling there won't be a lot of changes:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -seahawks/

But, looking back to what Schneider and Pete have done in past offseasons, I can't but feel they'll be active again this offseason. Maybe it will be more about tinkering than overhaulling. I see us losing a WR and adding another. Same with DL. I think they will do something more signifigant with the OL. It's the glaring need and they have been good about addressing needs in the offseason.

 

[DavidSeven]

I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

 

[SouthSoundHawk]

I'm not so worried about the cap and what the team will do with what little appears available. Pete and John turned this roster over and made a championship contending team. They locked up Kam for 30M, that alone says they have a long term plan in place and know which players will for sure be getting the fat stacks/long term deals. On defense, I think Wags, Kam, ET, Sherm, and Bennet are all safe. I'd be worried if I was anybody else (not extremely worried, but if I knew I was a fringe player...I'd be busting my ass this off-season).

Pete and John can/will find players that fit the mold and fill in the gaps. I think understanding what Pete wants long term and what players fit his scheme is crucial, and John seems to be in tune with what coach is looking for.

I think anyone that gets cut due to cap purposes will be replaced in the draft, I wouldn't be surprised if PCJS knew (for months) guys like Red and Clem (even Miller for example) would be cap casualties, and have been looking at what to do over the next few months. I think they've been narrowing down the last few players they want to target in the draft that would be perfect replacements. Heck, they might see something in a free agent that no one else does.

Point being, they have a plan...they might make it seem as though they're in cap trouble, because they are. However, I don't see them showing their cards on how they plan to adjust and make moves to remedy it (gotta stay ahead of everybody else).

Then again, they're kind of nuts...so they might just be taking everything as it comes and going full on wild west with signing and cutting guys. They've done it before, haha.

 

[ivotuk]

There are changes that will be required due to contract situations and other reasons but we'll see how much change there will be overall.

Pete keeps signalling there won't be a lot of changes:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -seahawks/

But, looking back to what Schneider and Pete have done in past offseasons, I can't but feel they'll be active again this offseason. Maybe it will be more about tinkering than overhaulling. I see us losing a WR and adding another. Same with DL. I think they will do something more signifigant with the OL. It's the glaring need and they have been good about addressing needs in the offseason.

This cracked me up:

"The Great Ted Thompson the Genius says:
Feb 6, 2014 10:56 AM
That’s too bad. I was hoping Rick Spielman might steal some more high draft picks from them."

Yea, because the Vikings are doing so well, especially at acquiring QBs :snack:

 

[SDHawk]

I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

I think the broader offensive philosophy is to get explosive results out of low risk plays. That means explosive running either from the backfield or as a runner after the catch. Tate and Harvin are two of the best in the business with regard to the latter.

 

[Coxal]

As always it's a pleasure to read your stuff kearly... Thank you bro, I mean it.

I think it'll be difficult to not be agree on you're FA write-up. Everything seems pretty obvious and we don't have many options to clear space.
I do like ASJ too, I mean a LOT. Hope we can draft him.
About recruiting FAs, Polamalu and Allen make sense if we can bring them with a "small $ yes, but a ring". Yes Polamalu played poorly this past 2 seasons but is skill and brain are still here and with a dominant back field like ours he should be awesome one more year. Same feeling for Allen and our Dline (assuming we keep Bennett).

Well I guess I agree with 100% of your write-up. As simple as that. .

 

[RichNhansom]

There are changes that will be required due to contract situations and other reasons but we'll see how much change there will be overall.

Pete keeps signalling there won't be a lot of changes:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -seahawks/

But, looking back to what Schneider and Pete have done in past offseasons, I can't but feel they'll be active again this offseason. Maybe it will be more about tinkering than overhaulling. I see us losing a WR and adding another. Same with DL. I think they will do something more signifigant with the OL. It's the glaring need and they have been good about addressing needs in the offseason.

I'd have to say I'm inclined to believe Pete on this. We don't have cap space to chase FA's and we will get supplemental draft picks for guys that leave as long as we don't sign similar FA's.

I think the smart money is to keep what you can't live without and let some go. Rely on your draft and development ability to restock and take advantage of extra picks obtained through the sup picks.

 

[RichNhansom]

I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

It is right now but Wilson is still developing and Lynch is aging. As Lynch moves on this team is going to rely more and more on that passing game and players with monster YAC like Tate are hard to find.

We seen what the Havin effect is now develop Willson, resign McCoy and develop, and find a big body #1 or resign Rice cheap and we likely will be using the pass to set up the run as much as the other way around.

 

[Mr.Hawkbrah]

^^Who's knows what our offense will evolve into, but I'm pretty sure it will have little to nothing to do with beast getting old. Idk how much more evident that is the them trying to keep our rb stable stocked and drafting one in The 2nd Round.

I think they figure out an
extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

I think the broader offensive philosophy is to get explosive results out of low risk plays. That means explosive running either from the backfield or as a runner after the catch. Tate and Harvin are two of the best in the business with regard to the latter.

Imo Davidseven is right. Your off season plan calls for locking up Tate and db, say what you want about our philosophy, I 100% believe you could switch out almost any other teams wr core and we still win that superbowl. Just cause our wrs are good, doesn't mean their aren't the least important piece of the puzzle. In order to win forever you must stay young and cheap, all I read on here is how we need to lock up almost everyone, it's not going to happen. And people will be leaving, I will eat my Crow when db and Tate are both on the roster after next year but I have no plans for bird on the menu.

I mean we got to the sb in a few years time. ... id say we should be excited for the new faces knowing how good of talent evaluators we have, yet everyone just seems scared of losing talent... Call me over confident I guess, just not worried about replacing our pedestrians, did you see Keases catch in the sb? Lol you guys are telling me you're that worried about him starting.... Talent Development is one of the coolest parts of being a fan and all I hear about monster and guys is no excitement and only pessimism.

 

[SDHawk]

I think they figure out an extension with Earl and Sherm. I can see them letting Tate walk, even at a discount. I just have a hard time believing that they'd want to lock themselves into a diminutive receiving corps for the next three years. Passing is arguably the least important aspect of this team and yet people seem to want to dump millions in cap on it. I just don't see it happening.

I think the broader offensive philosophy is to get explosive results out of low risk plays. That means explosive running either from the backfield or as a runner after the catch. Tate and Harvin are two of the best in the business with regard to the latter.

Imo Davidseven is right. Your off season plan calls for locking up Tate and db, say what you want about our philosophy, I 100% believe you could switch out almost any other teams wr core and we still win that superbowl. Just cause our wrs are good, doesn't mean their aren't the least important piece of the puzzle. In order to win forever you must stay young and cheap, all I read on here is how we need to lock up almost everyone, it's not going to happen. And people will be leaving, I will eat my Crow when db and Tate are both on the roster after next year but I have no plans for bird on the menu.

I mean we got to the sb in a few years time. ... id say we should be excited for the new faces knowing how good of talent evaluators we have, yet everyone just seems scared of losing talent... Call me over confident I guess, just not worried about replacing our pedestrians, did you see Keases catch in the sb? Lol you guys are telling me you're that worried about him starting.... Talent Development is one of the coolest parts of being a fan and all I hear about monster and guys is no excitement and only pessimism.

OK, get ready to eat crow.

Tate's value as a redline receiver, blocker and punt returner don't show up for the casual observer because it doesn't show up in the box scores.. but I think there's a reason why we drafted him in the 2nd round and continued to put faith in his development. Pete Carroll said in his presser yesterday that the team still has room to improve and specifically singled out Golden Tate as one that was reaching his potential as an all around player for this team.

I think letting Tate walk without a reasonable fight is a big mistake.

 

[DavidSeven]

I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

If they find a way to lock up Earl and Sherm (w/ room for Russell next year) and then draft well, then I think that's a win for the off-season. If they extend those guys AND somehow retain Bennett and Tate, then it's a home run -- just not sure if it's realistic.

 

[Mr.Hawkbrah]

@sdhawk. Hold your horses partner, I said both of them, I actually think tate is the one who should be brought back and is more happy here, I'm just sick of the db vs Tate debate. And I don't think tate and db should or will be both back after next year. I think they should get a pick for db while they can cause he's leaving imo.

 

[SDHawk]

I see the long-term MUST HAVES as Russell, Earl, Sherm, Kam, Marshawn, and probably Percy. I only consider a player a MUST HAVE if they're unique and losing any one of them significantly changes your team. Imagine it this way: losing any of these guys in the middle of a game changes the entire dynamic of the game. I love what Bennett and Tate bring, but does their impact really rise to that level?

If they find a way to lock up Earl and Sherm (w/ room for Russell next year) and then draft well, then I think that's a win for the off-season. If they extend those guys AND somehow retain Bennett and Tate, then it's a home run -- just not sure if it's realistic.

Look, I know what you're saying. Your minimalist/conservationist approach is the most likely because it embodies the worst case scenario when it comes to FA signings. However, I highly, highly, highly doubt that PC/JS's Plan A is to let Golden Tate walk. I am certain their Plan A is to re-sign all of Bennett, Tate and Baldwin.

I think there were alot of doubts about signing a legit pass rusher last season. 12s would have been thrilled with a John Abrahams signing, yet we were treated to insanely friendly deals with BOTH Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.

I trust that PC/JS can work similar magic this offseason so don't be such a pessimist.