Is Anthony Richardson worth pick 5?

[Bear-Hawk]

If you were a suffering Bears fan like me, you would know. We finally have our franchise QB, and he’s not going anywhere. Watch what happens this year when the Bears get a decent offensive line and better receiver group. He had no chance last year with all the clowns Poles brought in.

 

[niveky]

with them picking up Greg Olsen, that covers them in multiple ways. Whether they get a dl or qb with the first pick they have, with his track record, odds are that he will improve smith's game regardless and if they get that qb early Olsen will get him in the right habits, reinforce all the positives they already have and either way, lock should develop nicely as well if they secure him to come back.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

If you were a suffering Bears fan like me, you would know. We finally have our franchise QB, and he’s not going anywhere. Watch what happens this year when the Bears get a decent offensive line and better receiver group. He had no chance last year with all the clowns Poles brought in.

Franchise QB that led you to the worst record in the NFL? Even worse than the lowly Texans?

 

[CPHawk]

CBS latest mock has him going 1.

 

[Chevy]

It is?

I think Anderson's athletic ability is overrated, when he is being talked about as a generational talent. I know I'm in the minority on this, but that what makes the draft process and NFL combine interesting.

Nick Bosa wasn't an athletic freak, so yeah maybe Anderson could be a smaller version of Nick Bosa.

 

[SPOHAWK]

If you look at


You could be right, but you never know.

Let's look at three guys we know Schneider was high on previously and either did or expressed interest in drafting.

Russell Wilson had 25 picks his last two years at NC State and never had a completion % above 60.

Patrick Mahomes had 25 picks as well in his last two years at Texas Tech. In 2016, he threw a pick in six games in a row on his way to losing seven games.

Josh Allen has a completion rate of 56% and threw a ton of picks as well in his final two years.

If we take a stud DE, awesome. However, when I look at what guys that JS seems to like become in this league, I'd have no issue with us selecting a QB at 5 (or better yet...trade down and still get him).

no

 

[Lagartixa]

No chance in hell the Bears are going to trade Fields.

You're right, but the way you said it makes it sound like it's because the Bears wouldn't want to trade him.

"No chance in Hell I'd trade houses and investment portfolios with Jeff Bezos!"

What team would give up even a seventh-round pick at this point for a QB who has two years of non-production in the NFL? His career completion percentage of 59.7% would have looked good in 1975, but in his best year, 2022, he had the 31st-best completion percentage in the league at 60.4%, just behind Russell Wilson's disaster of a season and ahead only of Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson among QBs who had enough attempts to qualify as starters.

By ANY/A, a better measure of how valuable Fields's passing was (because it takes into account a lot more than just completion percentage), he was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

By DYAR, a measure of overall value contributed, Fields was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022. By DVOA, a measure of his rate of production, he was also the absolute worst in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

And Fields was much worse than the next-worst QB in DYAR and DVOA, which was the rotting carcass of Matt Ryan.

This total anti-production by Fields was in his second season as a pro, and he was noticeably worse in DVOA and DYAR in 2022 than in his rookie season (which suggests Fields's suckitude in 2022 is not entirely Pace's fault). I'm not ready to say Fields is a complete bust, but let's just say the cat is playing on the roof. If it's any consolation, the teams that picked QBs ahead of the Bears in 2021, the Jets and 49ers, managed to do perceptibly worse than the Bears in terms of the ratio of on-the-field value to draft capital spent. While Fields utterly sucked in 2022, Lance barely even played (and sucked when he did), and even though Zach Wilson sucked less than Fields in 2022, Wilson sucked a lot more than Fields in 2021, and both Lance and Wilson were picked with top-five picks while the Bears' wasted 2021 first-round pick was "only" #11.

If any team were to offer anything at all for Fields, even the absolute last pick in the 2024 draft, the Bears would be wise to at least consider it. On the other hand, because of the dead money (those fully guaranteed four-year first-round contracts can be killers!), the Bears would actually have a little less cap space if they traded Fields before June 1 than if they kept him, so maybe their best option is to keep Fields around for the moment for a QB competition with a newly-drafted player. And if some team gets desperate after June 1 and offers anything at all for Fields (say a seventh-round 2024 or 2025 pick, or a relatively inexpensive but broken-down veteran WR who wants to keep playing or something), well then the Bears can actually save over $2.375M of 2023 cap space by trading Fields.

Fields could in fact be a victim of circumstance, not given a fair chance to succeed, but halfway through his rookie contract, he hasn't shown signs of becoming a good NFL starter. Maybe he will break out and be an average-ish QB in 2023 (remember, that would be a massive breakout for a player whose first two years were as bad as Fields's), but the question for Bears management is if they're willing to bet on that or something even less likely, like Fields becoming a very good NFL quarterback, happening.

 

[themunn]

You're right, but the way you said it makes it sound like it's because the Bears wouldn't want to trade him.

"No chance in Hell I'd trade houses and investment portfolios with Jeff Bezos!"

What team would give up even a seventh-round pick at this point for a QB who has two years of non-production in the NFL? His career completion percentage of 59.7% would have looked good in 1975, but in his best year, 2022, he had the 31st-best completion percentage in the league at 60.4%, just behind Russell Wilson's disaster of a season and ahead only of Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson among QBs who had enough attempts to qualify as starters.

By ANY/A, a better measure of how valuable Fields's passing was (because it takes into account a lot more than just completion percentage), he was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

By DYAR, a measure of overall value contributed, Fields was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022. By DVOA, a measure of his rate of production, he was also the absolute worst in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

And Fields was much worse than the next-worst QB in DYAR and DVOA, which was the rotting carcass of Matt Ryan.

This total anti-production by Fields was in his second season as a pro, and he was noticeably worse in DVOA and DYAR in 2022 than in his rookie season (which suggests Fields's suckitude in 2022 is not entirely Pace's fault). I'm not ready to say Fields is a complete bust, but let's just say the cat is playing on the roof. If it's any consolation, the teams that picked QBs ahead of the Bears in 2021, the Jets and 49ers, managed to do perceptibly worse than the Bears in terms of the ratio of on-the-field value to draft capital spent. While Fields utterly sucked in 2022, Lance barely even played (and sucked when he did), and even though Zach Wilson sucked less than Fields in 2022, Wilson sucked a lot more than Fields in 2021, and both Lance and Wilson were picked with top-five picks while the Bears' wasted 2021 first-round pick was "only" #11.

If any team were to offer anything at all for Fields, even the absolute last pick in the 2024 draft, the Bears would be wise to at least consider it. On the other hand, because of the dead money (those fully guaranteed four-year first-round contracts can be killers!), the Bears would actually have a little less cap space if they traded Fields before June 1 than if they kept him, so maybe their best option is to keep Fields around for the moment for a QB competition with a newly-drafted player. And if some team gets desperate after June 1 and offers anything at all for Fields (say a seventh-round 2024 or 2025 pick, or a relatively inexpensive but broken-down veteran WR who wants to keep playing or something), well then the Bears can actually save over $2.375M of 2023 cap space by trading Fields.

Fields could in fact be a victim of circumstance, not given a fair chance to succeed, but halfway through his rookie contract, he hasn't shown signs of becoming a good NFL starter. Maybe he will break out and be an average-ish QB in 2023 (remember, that would be a massive breakout for a player whose first two years were as bad as Fields's), but the question for Bears management is if they're willing to bet on that or something even less likely, like Fields becoming a very good NFL quarterback, happening.

Does the DVOA & DYAR take into account his rushing though? 1100+ rushing yards is nothing to scoff at - more than all but 6 running backs. Dual threat QBs will always cause problems. The Bears also don't have a bonafide #1 receiver, arguably not even a #2 on the roster, which makes it somewhat hard to assess if all of the problems are down solely to Fields or if there are other issues holding him back.

The Bears are now in the position of being able to strengthen around him for the next 2 years - as you say his guaranteed contract means there's little sense in trading him at this venture and seeing how it plays out at least for another year.

I agree though - some of his passing stats down the line were absolutely atrocious. He's still young though - around the same age Wilson was when he drafted so there is room for improvement

 

[WarHawks]

Richardson climbing the board into the top 5 ensures that at least one or two of the top 4 qb's are there at 5. Even if we do re-sign Geno, I don't see how you say no to that rare opportunity. Sign Payne in FA, move up from 20 to get another stud DL, boom. Now that's a draft. Sure love to know what the scouts and JS are thinking.

 

[Lagartixa]

Does the DVOA & DYAR take into account his rushing though? 1100+ rushing yards is nothing to scoff at - more than all but 6 running backs. Dual threat QBs will always cause problems. The Bears also don't have a bonafide #1 receiver, arguably not even a #2 on the roster, which makes it somewhat hard to assess if all of the problems are down solely to Fields or if there are other issues holding him back.

The Bears are now in the position of being able to strengthen around him for the next 2 years - as you say his guaranteed contract means there's little sense in trading him at this venture and seeing how it plays out at least for another year.

I agree though - some of his passing stats down the line were absolutely atrocious. He's still young though - around the same age Wilson was when he drafted so there is room for improvement

That's a really good question, and I had thought about it briefly, and then I forgot to check. I just checked now, and you're right that Fields added value as a rusher, and I was looking at just the passing numbers. In fact, Fields produced 169 DYAR of rushing value, good for the fourth-most-valuable QB rushing performance in the league in 2022. By DVOA, he was only the 12th-best-rushing QB on a per-snap basis (Fields's 1143 rushing yards and 7.14 yards-per-carry average were nice, but his league-leading 16 fumbles weren't), but his per-snap rushing was positive, and his huge volume of rushes made that add up to a decent amount of value.

I say "a decent amount" not because there were three QBs (Allen, Jackson, Jones) who produced more, but because when you add up Fields's DYAR, -541 passing and +169 rushing, you get -372, which is enough to push him past Matt Ryan (-360 passing -50 rushing = -411 DYAR total) and make Fields just the second-most-anti-valuable QB in the league overall in 2022, harming his team as a QB less than the decomposed remains of Ryan. All-Suck-Team candidate Mayfield produced -238 DYAR passing and -94 (yikes) rushing, for a total of -332, earning him third place in terms of total value subtracted by a QB in 2022.

Fields did produce positive value as a rusher, but not enough to make him anything even close to an overall positive contributor. Just enough to make him the second-most-anti-valuable QB in the league for the season despite being by far the QB whose passing most harmed his team in 2022.


EDITED to add: I'm guessing a bunch of Fields's fumbles came on pass plays (with 16 fumbles overall, there are plenty to go around!), so they can't be the only thing driving his rushing DVOA down. I suspect he may have run in a lot of situations like third-and-10. Averaging 7.1 yards per carry on third-and-8 or worse will not lead to good rushing DVOA, because DVOA takes into account the down-and-distance situation in awarding value for a given play. I'll quote from the explanation of DVOA on Football Outsiders: "DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12."

 

[FrodosFinger]

If you were a suffering Bears fan like me, you would know. We finally have our franchise QB, and he’s not going anywhere. Watch what happens this year when the Bears get a decent offensive line and better receiver group. He had no chance last year with all the clowns Poles brought in.

Fields is gonna be a star in this league Bears just need to get him some weapons

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Fields is gonna be a star in this league Bears just need to get him some weapons

Bears need WR1 and much better OL. Ranked worse pass blocking in the league.

 

[NoGain]

If I were the Bears, I would get as much as I could in a trade for Fields, and then draft Bryce Young #1. For one, they would be extending the number of years to having a QB on a rookie contract, and give them ample time to rebuild for Young. Secondly, I think Young, in spite of his size, is the closest thing to a safe bet amongst all the QB's in the draft. He's smart, skilled, a great leader, a clutch performer, a quick thinker/processor/reactor to most all situations, a person of great character by all accounts, and someone who's already proven that no stage is too big for him. The Bears simply have not had a QB for decades who comes close to fitting such a profile.

I would not be at all surprised if they come to their senses and see it as I do. I grew up in Chicago, was a Bears fan until I made the northwest my new home years ago. You don't have to tell me how badly this franchise and its fans have longed for a high caliber, true franchise QB. If they had had a merely healthy and above average QB in the 1980's, it would have been easy for one to imagine them having won at least one more SB, and perhaps more. It's been the bane and long time running joke of that franchise ever since I can remember.

 

[JPatera76]

You're right, but the way you said it makes it sound like it's because the Bears wouldn't want to trade him.

"No chance in Hell I'd trade houses and investment portfolios with Jeff Bezos!"

What team would give up even a seventh-round pick at this point for a QB who has two years of non-production in the NFL? His career completion percentage of 59.7% would have looked good in 1975, but in his best year, 2022, he had the 31st-best completion percentage in the league at 60.4%, just behind Russell Wilson's disaster of a season and ahead only of Baker Mayfield and Zach Wilson among QBs who had enough attempts to qualify as starters.

By ANY/A, a better measure of how valuable Fields's passing was (because it takes into account a lot more than just completion percentage), he was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

By DYAR, a measure of overall value contributed, Fields was the absolute worst starter in the league in 2022. By DVOA, a measure of his rate of production, he was also the absolute worst in the league in 2022, 34th in a league with 32 teams.

And Fields was much worse than the next-worst QB in DYAR and DVOA, which was the rotting carcass of Matt Ryan.

This total anti-production by Fields was in his second season as a pro, and he was noticeably worse in DVOA and DYAR in 2022 than in his rookie season (which suggests Fields's suckitude in 2022 is not entirely Pace's fault). I'm not ready to say Fields is a complete bust, but let's just say the cat is playing on the roof. If it's any consolation, the teams that picked QBs ahead of the Bears in 2021, the Jets and 49ers, managed to do perceptibly worse than the Bears in terms of the ratio of on-the-field value to draft capital spent. While Fields utterly sucked in 2022, Lance barely even played (and sucked when he did), and even though Zach Wilson sucked less than Fields in 2022, Wilson sucked a lot more than Fields in 2021, and both Lance and Wilson were picked with top-five picks while the Bears' wasted 2021 first-round pick was "only" #11.

If any team were to offer anything at all for Fields, even the absolute last pick in the 2024 draft, the Bears would be wise to at least consider it. On the other hand, because of the dead money (those fully guaranteed four-year first-round contracts can be killers!), the Bears would actually have a little less cap space if they traded Fields before June 1 than if they kept him, so maybe their best option is to keep Fields around for the moment for a QB competition with a newly-drafted player. And if some team gets desperate after June 1 and offers anything at all for Fields (say a seventh-round 2024 or 2025 pick, or a relatively inexpensive but broken-down veteran WR who wants to keep playing or something), well then the Bears can actually save over $2.375M of 2023 cap space by trading Fields.

Fields could in fact be a victim of circumstance, not given a fair chance to succeed, but halfway through his rookie contract, he hasn't shown signs of becoming a good NFL starter. Maybe he will break out and be an average-ish QB in 2023 (remember, that would be a massive breakout for a player whose first two years were as bad as Fields's), but the question for Bears management is if they're willing to bet on that or something even less likely, like Fields becoming a very good NFL quarterback, happening.

Fields reminds me of The Raiders Qb, Terrell Pryor.. who we brought in, PC asked him to switch to WR he didn’t want to, Seattle sent him packing to the Browns and there he swapped and just sucked.

Except here maybe fields would be best to work on RB stuff. Dude can run.. it’s the only way the Bears stayed alive in many games.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

If I were the Bears, I would get as much as I could in a trade for Fields, and then draft Bryce Young #1. For one, they would be extending the number of years to having a QB on a rookie contract, and give them ample time to rebuild for Young. Secondly, I think Young, in spite of his size, is the closest thing to a safe bet amongst all the QB's in the draft. He's smart, skilled, a great leader, a clutch performer, a quick thinker/processor/reactor to most all situations, a person of great character by all accounts, and someone who's already proven that no stage is too big for him. The Bears simply have not had a QB for decades who comes close to fitting such a profile.

I would not be at all surprised if they come to their senses and see it as I do. I grew up in Chicago, was a Bears fan until I made the northwest my new home years ago. You don't have to tell me how badly this franchise and its fans have longed for a high caliber, true franchise QB. If they had had a merely healthy and above average QB in the 1980's, it would have been easy for one to imagine them having won at least one more SB, and perhaps more. It's been the bane and long time running joke of that franchise ever since I can remember.

I disagree on Fields, share your sentiments on the rest. I moved out here in the 1980s and became a Seahawks fan, but Bears are still my #1. Aside from trying to learn a new system last year, Fields has had a horrible OL and the worst receivers in the league. That’s all about to change. Bears fans are going crazy with anticipation.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I disagree on Fields, share your sentiments on the rest. I moved out here in the 1980s and became a Seahawks fan, but Bears are still my #1. Aside from trying to learn a new system last year, Fields has had a horrible OL and the worst receivers in the league. That’s all about to change. Bears fans are going crazy with anticipation.

Maybe Fields to Stroud, Levis or Young is a lateral move.

But it also buys you another 4-5 years of rookie QB salary vs having to pay Fields after next year, who hasn't exactly proved he's worthy of paying 40M+ a year.

 

[massari]

seahawks drafting anthony richardson at #5 is like going into the grocery store to spend your last money on a couple scratch tickets, when your cupboards are bare and there's no milk in the fridge.



anthony richardson at #5 is a luxury pick we simply don't have the luxury of making.

Richardson is a $1 billion dollar powerball ticket

Anderson/Carter/Wilson are a $100k scratch ticket

the cupboards are bare regardless depending on what they do in free agency

 

[toffee]

Richardson is a top 10 pick, but if we would to trade down to between 6th and 9th, the team that traded with us will likely to draft Richardson. Therefore if we want to draft Richardson, we may have to use the 5th pick. If we draft Richardson, we have one of the qualified QB coach to help him develop, weapons galore to help him succeed, and an OL and running game in place. We are his best destination.

 

[WarHawks]

In Pete and John we trust. If they pick any of the top 4 qb's at 5, I'm down, as I trust their evaluation and judgment.

 

[irfuben32]

I will be disappointed if we don't get a defensive difference maker with our first pick. Hopefully we can get Hendon Hooker later in the draft.