Hey Keasley, could you help with an analyse on the collapse of our defense in the second half of our wildcard game vs 9ers? Our defense had two ok games to finish the regular season and played an ok in first half before collapsing.
What happened? I don't know enough football to understand
This is PFF's opinion of our defense:
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I haven't rewatched the game, but i think Pete summed it up fairly succinctly in the post game presser. Not enough talent, and no room for error.
Last year, we were heavily reliant on Geno and the offense to play at a top 5 to 10 level every game. The fact that we finished where we did is honestly a testament to Geno, as much as folks tend to dock him for poor clutch play. He was plenty clutch in the way he'd get us points game in and game out as the defense would surrender leads and the running game did little to relieve stress in pass pro.
Our running game was hot cold... full blast, or trickle. Our pass game was solid, but by years end, we seemed to exhaust the concepts we'd seen success in most of the year and were gradually getting burned more often as the well began to dry ( hence Genos rising interceptable pass %). At the same time, our pass pro was also gradually failing, a result of our interior flaws being exposed and our rookie tackles hitting the rookie wall and doubly, being required to cheat inside to help lineages, which opened up outside speed rushes. - Cheat to the outside, get beat inside. Setup inside, and get beat outside.
on defense, ... the defense. The problems were myriad, but all started when the linchpin around which everything revolved was lost in week 1. Compounding the X factor that Adams was to be, was the fact that I don't think Brooks managed making calls very well. It seemed obvious that the fits between dline and LB were off. It was also obvious that the DBs and Lbs were off. The common denominator - Brooks.
And THAT, was compounded by tye fact that talent wise, we were undermanned. Our talent was at or below bar at LB and Dline. CB play was solid and safety play was good, but both Diggs and Neal were often out of position because of the mixups up front and not being certain the guys in front of them were doing what they were supposed to be doing.
I think Pete and Clint kept to the script and pushing the 3-4 hybrid shift because they knew that the fault was more execution than it was necessarily personnel. I think they knew that if they could get smarter play from the ILB position, that that would get them to average play. They were in a bonus situation for all intents and purposes. The team had exceeded axoectations and was looking forward to building (learning) and gaining experience in the system to hit the ground running next year.the fact that the big move at LB this offseason was bringing Bobby back ( who played in and called adjustments in a similar D with the Rams) lends some credibility to that hypothesis. That, and that their attitude in improving the dline wasn't as drastic as many would have expected.
So all that considered- the team had zero margin for error on offense or defense against a team with few weaknesses like the 9ers. In the first half we executed about as well as we could have and hit some critical plays that showed what the team is capable of. But as the game wore on and the 9ers had a chance to analyze the wrinkles Shane was incorporating, the 9ers gradually removed whatver margin we had to start with. After Genos fumble to start the 2md half, the mental edge was lost, Geno pushed too much, and with the mental pressure of post season play and the fatigue of needing to scratch, tooth and nail for 17 games just to make the dance, the pendulum swung south and naver came back.
The collapse on D was similar. We played well enough through 2 1/4 qtrs to win, but that was with solid execution, help on special teams and emotionally elevated, inspired play.
But like almost every game last year, we began to lose the TOP possession battle. The fumble by Geno and then the subsequent int was too much to come back from for a defense that by that time was too tired, not on the same page, not gifted enough in key spots, and had never been abke to play the style of ball it was built to play in the offseason.
Our running game made a few solid appearances, but then, without the ability to hit the inside, between the tackles consistently... the 9ers took away the outside and then we were like a heavyweight fighter in round 12 who'd punched himself out and could barely lift his gloves. At that point its like hoping you get a KO on a lucky punch.
But reason for optimism. You can see how the Pete and John addressed many of the areas that failed is last year and specifically in thr playoff loss.
Running game - assuming everybody stays healthy, we will be able to attack defenses sideline to sideline and especially between the tackles with the addition of Charbs. His legs and the fortification of the interior addresses two elements that contributed heavily to our loss.
With better pass pro, and the addition of JN, our passing well will be much deeper and require defenses to effectively account for 3 Top flight wrs and a formidable TE group. That's obviously a boon for Geno, but for the running game as well.
On D, I think whatever Bobby might be lacking physically, he will make up for mentally in getting everybody in his group and on the d line where they're supposed to be. If that happens, and Diggs and Love / Adams mesh with fits they can better predict (because they're correct) then many of the unforced errors last year can be reduced.
Our edge game is improved, with Mafe in year 2, Hall and all of the ferocity he brings, Nwosu , Taylor and Jones applying significant pressure at the DE spot
Our CB game is improved and has the potential to be one of the best in the league.
Safeties - the big piece here is that they have a bona-fide starter in Love who will have all offseason to get acclimated. So if Adams can't go again, it's less of a loss. But bigger, is the addition of Bobby to sync things up between the dline and Dbs. Diggs and Bobby > than Diggs and Brooks. So much of what was wrong last year was miscommunication and players not being where they were supposed to be. Assuming Wags and Diggs stay healthy, the 'processor' that the 2 of them combine to create will *I think dramatically improve the overall performance of the side.
LBs - Bobby will be the brains we were missing last year, which will allow Brooks to go back to what he does best - thinking less, reading , reacting and blowing things up.
Overall, the only place we haven't added significant talent / ability is NT - THE spot, according to Pete/Clint and guys like Dave Wyman that you can plug in a less experienced player and have him succeed. The way Dave Wyman described it, its either you go left, or right when the ball is snapped, and much of that decision is dictated by the guy calling the shots at LB - Bobby.
And so when I look at the wildcard loss last year and try to place our odds of winning that game if we had the team then we have today...we were up by 1 in the 3rd with a broken o line, a half functioning running game, A defense with a broken processor, and a lack of game changing talent. I think it's entirely possible that our 23 squad is in the game in the end and that if our running game and DB play is anywhere near as good as it looks to be on paper that it's not at all crazy to think we could have won.
So I don't think it's at all crazy to think the Hawks have significantly closed the gap to the 9ers. Whether they've pushed into the #1 spot will be determined by how well the defense comes together. If the comms issues are addressed and the side plays with a sense of unity... if we can impose our will on the ground and better protect Geno (he was sacked 4th most last year), we will be significantly better.
Its not homerism to think we best a team who even if they start Purdy, will have a 2nd year starter that teams have a year of tape on. His magical honeymoon period is over. In 2022 he was playing with house money. 2023.. folks will be expecting him to deliver. That's a completely different psychological stress. Not saying the kid isn't up for the challenge. Just that it's a pretty significant question mark.
The 9ers were also extremely lucky in my opinion to have both CMC and kittle healthy for as long as they did. That's just not what history has shown. If the injury trend swings back to where it's been for both players, the dynamic of that team changes significantly.
They'll still be solid on D, but they did lose their DC. That can't be discounted.
So from where I sit, the 9ers have dropped a bit, and maybe not insignificantly, depending on injury, Purdys play and how well their D adjusts to the new DC.
At the same time, we could have taken a small step forward, or a big one.
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