Could the 2014 Seahawks actually be better than 2013?

[kearly]

I think this has a very real chance of being possible, despite the fact that 2013 is a high bar to clear.

First of all, the defense reached another level after the 2013 bye week. This also happens to coincide to the day with Byron Maxwell starting at CB #2 and playing out of his mind. Post bye-week, the Seahawks played 8 games and averaged 11.5 points allowed per game. Five of of those eight games were against Denver, New Orleans, and SF, so it wasn't exactly stat-padding against a bunch of powder-puff offenses. Prior to that point Seattle's defense had averaged 15 points allowed per game over 11 matches.

What's really amazing about that 11.5 average is that a lot of the points they allowed during that 8 game stretch came in garbage time when Seattle was trading points for clock. The upgrade from Browner to Maxwell ended up being enormous, but it just seemed like the defense as a whole was playing on an entirely new level after that bye week. It might be possible this was small sample size, but if it's not and Seattle's defense just went up another notch, then we could be looking at a potentially historic defense in 2014.

In terms of departures, the only significant losses were Browner, Thurmond, and McDonald. Browner of course was upgraded over with Maxwell, and when factoring health, I could see Lane being able to fill in for Thurmond without much, if any, downgrade. McDonald is a good player but only a backup/rotational guy. If Williams has anything left in the tank I don't think we will notice much change.

And this doesn't even get into the potential stars on defense that might show up, we seem to have 1-2 young defensive stars appear every season from the young players.

On offense, their ability to move the ball was night and day last season with Percy Harvin. If Harvin can stay reasonably healthy (13+ total games), that's going to bump our offense up a half dozen spots in DVOA all by itself. The addition of Richardson and the expanded role of Michael will likewise boost Seattle's explosive play totals. Those three players combined for just 25 total touches last season, most of them by Michael in garbage time. Even without those guys, Seattle still finished with the second highest number of 20+ yard plays in 2013.

Our offense is as built around the explosive play as it is around the run, so this is critically important to Seattle.

On the downside, fullback and offensive line could very well remain issues, and the team lost Golden Tate. That said, given how bad the OL and fullback spot was last season it's hard to see things going anywhere but up at those areas, and Tate's role in the offense will be given to Harvin, which should be an upgrade.

On special teams Seattle will have a hard time living up to 2013's coverage unit which very nearly set an NFL record for stinginess. Replacing Tate at punt returner will also be tough. Then again, Seattle was mostly horrible on kick returns last season wasting most of their opportunities with guys like Turbin bringing kicks out. Replacing Turbin with Harvin/Baldwin on kick returns will go a long way to help Seattle break even with last year's special teams.

There are likely going to be new problems that pop up, but even some crippling unforseen issues in 2013 didn't stop Seattle from winning 84% of their games because the core of the team is so ridiculously strong. I feel confident that so long as Wilson, Thomas, and Harvin stay healthy, Seattle will field an even better team than last year.

 

[RolandDeschain]

A healthy Harvin all year will be a big difference, and so would a healthy O-line. Seriously, when's the last time the Seahawks had four guys start 16 regular-season games in the same positions on the O-line? 2005? It is becoming ludicrous, our perennial run at injury on the offensive line...

One thing I'd love to see too, is more creativity with our pre-snap formations. Six-year-olds can predict when we're going to run or pass with like 95% accuracy.

 

[BlueTalon]

A good read, as always!

Kearly, do you consider losing Big Red and Clemons not to be significant losses to the defense? Or did you just not mention them because you think the D line has it covered?

I don't view either the O-line or the fullback position to be down sides. I'm actually pretty high on our O-line, I think it's going to be a great unit. Fullbacks I'm not as confident about, but I am really interested to see how the whole RB situation shakes out.

 

[Scottemojo]

Fullback might end up being more spot duty than anything. I expect to see more 6 OL sets, which we used with great success in that final stretch. I also expect a lot more 3WR. I would like to see some two back sets with both Lynch and Michael, but don't expect to.

On the OL, I am hoping a healthy Unger makes a big difference. I personally think that was a bigger part of our OL issues than any one other thing besides the loss of Okung. I think Seattle can expect a steady diet of A and B gap blitzing, when teams look at last years games that will stand out as a major weakness. A huge part of our getting even better will hinge on stopping that.

The offense has the potential to be insanely unhinged, in a good way, if we can block up front. The speed kills potential of this unit is rarely seen in the NFL. I think Willson is going to become a focus in the middle a lot more as well.

I disagree on the punt unit. I thought the biggest part of our success kicking last year was Ryan hitting that 44 yard knuckler with regularity, he stopped outkicking his coverage. I don't see that stopping. Tate will be missed, though. I am not counting on any rookies for consistency, but there is no denying the big catch potential of the Bama kid and the speed of Richardson. I doubt either one gets more than 30 catches. But if Richardson can grow into being the returner, if not at the beginning of the year then by next season, thatwould be a very good thing, I think.

 

[Happy]

It's hard not to be awed by the team speed. You know what this group brings to mind for me? The 2009 gators national championship team, of which Harvin and a whole mess of guys who went on to play in the NFL were a part of.

Tebow got all the press, but that group had so much team speed, it was just ridiculous. Rare collection of athletes playing for an elite coach who knows how to inspire and energize.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

I could see this happening. It would require some things to go right.

If the OL is healthy and improves from awful to average.
If Harvin stays healthy and Richardson adds that deep threat.
If the DL doesn't miss a beat.
If no important players suffer injuries (i.e. Wilson, Thomas, etc.)

Really I don't think there is all that much necessary for us to improve. I'd love to see what this defense would look like with an explosive offense that jumped out to big leads early on.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Players I expect to improve significantly over last year's production

1. Russell Wilson
2. Percy Harvin
3. Luke Willson
4. Doug Baldwin
5. Cliff Avril
6. Bruce Irvin
7. Byron Maxwell
8. Bobby Wagner
9. JR Sweezy
10. Michael Bowie
11. Alvin Bailey

Guys I expect to improve somewhat or remain productive

1. Russell Okung
2. Brandon Mebane
3. Michael Bennett
4. Zach Miller
5. KJ Wright
6. Richard Sherman
7. Earl Thomas
8. Kam Chancellor
9. James Carpenter


Guys I can see dipping in productivity:

1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Max Unger


Obviously injuries can't be predicted and will have a random effect. But overall, this team should be considerably better than last year's team simply due to the fact that we have guys still improving through experience. The names will be the same, but the players are going to be better versions of themselves.

 

[Evil_Shenanigans]

A good read, as always!

Kearly, do you consider losing Big Red and Clemons not to be significant losses to the defense? Or did you just not mention them because you think the D line has it covered?

I had the same question. Moreso Clemons than Bryant. They will be replaced certainly but Clemons was awesome down the stretch last fall.

The other guy I am really looking forward to getting back is Anthony McCoy. Not many are mentioning him with all the talk of Willson and Miller. But IMO McCoy could be (assuming he makes the team) a huge part of this offense.

With Britt and Bowie battling to take Brenos spot and Cable seemingly set on Carp (down 15 lbs at otas!) and Sweezy. We will need Unger and Okung to be A) Healthy and B) leading the young guys! I am cautiously optimistic on the O-Line.

I just have to shake my head at how oppressive our DB corps is going to be yet again! :0190l:

 

[loafoftatupu]

When the team is built on youth, there is always going to be players within that group that advance.

Sherman
Wright
Baldwin
Maxwell
Malcom. All entering year 4

Wags
Russ
Irvin
Kearse
Sweezy All entering 3rd year

These are the two groups of STARTERS I see simply improving because of general experience. Then we have the 2010 boys who still are just nearing the pinnacle.

Kam
Earl
Okung entering 4th year.

That is 13 guys that start or play a lot with 4 years experience or less.

I am not even mentioning Scruggs, Turbo, the Oline kids or the impact of Harvin. Bennett, Avril, Mebane all maintain their level of play in their prime.

Unger? We'll see, but my oh my. Yeah, they are likely to be better in 2014. They will at least have the experience and knowledge of what it takes to win. I think the SB was not a mark of the peak, but a catalyst for even more growth.

 

[pmedic920]

I said recently in another thread, I'm thinking we will field a better team.
I don't think this will translate to more wins.
Crazy concept, I know.

 

[Hawks46]

Well I think it's not only possible, but likely.

In general, our biggest weakness on offense was the OL and quick hitting routes. Wilson couldn't get rid of the all quickly (either by play design or personnel weaknesses) and he wasn't getting time for much else. We have the means to alleviate that problem with Harvin and Norwood.

I agree with Kearly. It's hard to see us getting worse production out of the OL than we did last year, and like I mentioned above, even if we do, we have players that gain instant separation (Harvin) or can win jump balls (Norwood). Neither of which we had last year.

I think we have an elite offense if:

1. Lynchs' production (or the production in the running game) stays the same. I don't see a drop off from Lynch this year
2. Richardson puts in a rookie league average performance. He doesn't have to kill it, but his skill set will make defenses adjust
3. Kearse improves this year like he did last year. With Kearse as a strong 4, Harvin being healthy won't be an issue
5. Norwood develops like we hope. I'm not talking anything spectacular, but I see him being Wilson's security blanket; the guy he goes to when the crap hits the fan and he needs someone to win a jump ball. Norwood's skill set is tailor made for this
6. We get better production/health from our OL. It's not hard, looking at last year, but this improves literally every area of the offense
7. Harvin stays healthy. This puts us over the top, but I honestly think depth is more important, as I think it's more likely that guys like Kearse, Norwood and Richardson improve than Harvin plays all 16 games.

I agree with Scotte....I see our ST's coverage staying the same. We probably have the 2 best gunners in the league in Lockette and Lane.

Defensively, it's hard to call, but I see us as being at least as good as last year. There's no reason to think Maxwell can't or won't improve. Thomas, Chancellor and Sherman will turn in the same production. LBers will be the same or better with the new competition pushing for playing time and Irvin getting a 2nd year's worth of reps at LB (I think he can be special).

As mentioned, McDonald's production probably gets duplicated or improved upon by Williams.

The only question is the pass rush. Will Bennett be equally effective with more reps? Can we reliably replace Clemons ? Those are the only 2 questions we have on defense. Red's spot can be taken by multiple players, including Bennett.

 

[tom sawyer]

We are going 15-1 next year! 18-1 overall!!

Does that answer your question?!!!

 

[Tech Worlds]

A healthy Harvin will be worth at least 10 yards in field position from his kickoff ability. That alone will up our offensive output.

 

[formido]

I feel confident that so long as Wilson, Thomas, and Harvin stay healthy, Seattle will field an even better team than last year.

Seattle's pass defense went from below average to elite the minute Sherman stepped on the field, so he'd probably also need to not get hurt for us to field an even better team than last year. Last year Seattle had one of the best defenses ever, and that doesn't happen by having only one elite player. As has been detailed in a few analytic articles published in the last few weeks, part of the reason Maxwell is so productive--and able to cover #1 receivers when they're on his side--is because we shift him help. That can't happen anymore if Sherman is off the field.

 

[kearly]

Kearly, do you consider losing Big Red and Clemons not to be significant losses to the defense? Or did you just not mention them because you think the D line has it covered? .

I think Clemons needed to go. Power rush was the only part of his game that seemed fully intact in 2013 and it seems likely he would have faded further in 2014. I thought Clemons was, charitably, a league average player last year and there were definitely moments where it seemed like Schofield was the better of the two options for that spot.

Bryant was likewise on the wrong side of 30 and in a body that will show signs of age and wear sooner than others. Bryant was actually a pretty nice player last season and I think losing him will hurt slightly, but he needed to go. McDaniel might actually be an upgrade over Bryant at the 5-tech, but that also means we'll see McDaniel inside a lot less which is a shame because he was so good there last season.

Regardling the O-line, I like Sweezy and Okung. Unger was very good pre-2013. Carpenter is the Jesus Montero of the OL, maybe he breaks out or maybe he fails for lacking the want-to. The early signs from him this offseason are good, but I wouldn't bank on him yet. Bowie has some very nice pure talent as a run blocker, and given time he could be a rock solid RT. That said, his protection was a big issue last season and it might take years for him to develop there, just look at how long it took Breno.

I like Britt but worry that his inability to anchor could make him a rookie James Carpenter level fiasco in 2014. I am rooting for Bowie to start until Britt proves that he won't get pushed around by stronger defensive ends.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

If Harvin stays healthy, that alone will make this a better team. Seriously. Better starting field position on kickoffs as Tech said above, more explosive plays, more running lanes open for the RBs because he stretches the field horizontally, more points scored, etc.

More wins? Maybe, maybe not because weird bounces and the like can change a W/L record. But come playoff time the cream will rise.

 

[Hawks46]

A healthy Harvin will be worth at least 10 yards in field position from his kickoff ability. That alone will up our offensive output.

I'd argue that losing Tate is worse than gaining Harvin from a ST perspective.

Against our defense, teams punt a lot more than they kickoff. It may not be that big of a difference as dynamic as Harvin is, but it's still a difference.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

2014 is shaping up to quite possibly have even better depth than the 2013 squad. The potential is there to go undefeated if they can manage to stay healthy enough. No team has it all together. Many other teams would absolutely love to have this talented roster and leadership. I believe this will trump whatever weaknesses the team is currently working on to improve (and will.) Never underestimate the heart of a Champion.

Others I didn't see mentioned specifically yet that I believe are going to prove to be big time: Gregg Scruggs and Tharold Simon.

 

[DavidSeven]

I think this 2014 team will be better than the 2013 team in terms of pure talent.

However, I think this 2014 faces a much more difficult task in terms of scheduling. The 2013 team had to deal with a bunch of 10am games, but they also had a late bye and multiple home primetime games. This year, we have the dreaded early bye, which means our players are going to be pretty worn out by the time that brutal NFC West stretch happens later in the year. I also don't like the fact that Seattle is playing the AFC West in the pre-season and the regular season. The element of the "unknown" seems to favor Seattle -- they frequently blow out teams who aren't used to their speed. Having to play the AFC West teams twice sort of turns this into a more divisional dynamic, and we all know those games are more difficult. Making matters worse, the first match-ups (where the "surprise" element can still be a factor) don't even count.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

I think this 2014 team will be better than the 2013 team in terms of pure talent.

However, I think this 2014 faces a much more difficult task in terms of scheduling. The 2013 team had to deal with a bunch of 10am games, but they also had a late bye and multiple home primetime games. This year, we have the dreaded early bye, which means our players are going to be pretty worn out by the time that brutal NFC West stretch happens later in the year. I also don't like the fact that Seattle is playing the AFC West in the pre-season and the regular season. The element of the "unknown" seems to favor Seattle -- they frequently blow out teams who aren't used to their speed. Having to play the AFC West teams twice sort of turns this into a more divisional dynamic, and we all know those games are more difficult. Making matters worse, the first match-ups (where the "surprise" element can still be a factor) don't even count.

Boy, I don't know. Looking ahead at a schedule can only give you some idea of what to expect. But, you never know. There's nothing about this schedule that makes it decidedly any tougher than looking ahead to the schedule at this point last year. I think you'll agree that sometimes teams just end up not being all that they were supposed to be. Sometimes, there's tougher than expected opponents (Tampa in 2013, etc.)

If you agree the Hawks will be better in terms of pure talent, then that should tell you all you need to know. Honestly, every week is tough. There is no easy opponent. This young roster has probably learned to not overlook anyone by now. A more talented roster doesn't guarantee victories, but I'd rather the Hawks be the more talented team and start with that advantage.

Sorry, but I also do not agree that they will be necessarily "pretty much worn out" for the stretch of NFC West games either. I wouldn't be surprised if PC would rather play that stretch not coming off a bye - so they can get it going and keep it going through that stretch. I would also gather that most if not all of the players would say that's a non-factor. It's a long season no matter what for every team. There's simply nothing about the Seahawks schedule that would necessarily mean the things you are saying. Those things are possible, but coaches and players know the road they face ahead of time. So, prepare accordingly, right? These are professionals... the best of the best at their trade. The Champs were talkin about as well. unno: