Geno Is a Bridge, Nothing More

Maelstrom787 said:

We're only missing a second rounder in terms of needle-moving capital and have a pretty full slate in the future years.

That being said, I agree that it's fairly untenable and my point was that regardless of where we obtain the guy, there's obviously a lot of precedent indicating that easing the young quarterback in is better than throwing the weight of the team on him immediately as he attempts to acclimate to the NFL. The most obvious examples are Mahomes and Love benefitting from the extra developmental period that the incumbent bridge starters provided them.

Geno is not a roadblock to the success of a hypothetical quarterback of the future. If anything, Geno's presence is a positive for their career outlook as well as the team's outlook.

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Fair enough because in the scheme of things it's not him that has a bloated contract or is under performing but to expect him to be the level of quarterback that can carry a team when needed in the season or expect success in the playoffs is very unrealistic.

AK49Hawk said:

Was Hasselbeck an elite QB?

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Did he win a Super Bowl? Neither will Geno.

Come on man. You know damn well what happened in XL. That game was pre-determined.

I think people are generally unrealistic in assessing the likelihood of getting the so called QBOtf. Many teams have tanked trying to get this done. Cleveland, New York, (both New York teams), Carolina, etc. For every Mahomes, there are Zach Wilson's, Trey Lances, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones... you get the picture.

So when I hear people scream, let's just pick the QB of the future I just roll my eyes. Pick QBs...yes, but you don't dismantle your team in this effort. I mean if you find your guy take your shot, e.g., - Russell Wilson in the 3rd round.

I want to strengthen the DL and/or OL as the first goal. Taking a shot at a guy in the third round or so wouldn't bother me. Trading draft picks to move up in the first round to get a QB just doesn't make sense to me.

Or even early 2nd round

rigelian said:

I think people are generally unrealistic in assessing the likelihood of getting the so called QBOtf. Many teams have tanked trying to get this done. Cleveland, New York, (both New York teams), Carolina, etc. For every Mahomes, there are Zach Wilson's, Trey Lances, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones... you get the picture.

So when I hear people scream, let's just pick the QB of the future I just roll my eyes. Pick QBs...yes, but you don't dismantle your team in this effort. I mean if you find your guy take your shot, e.g., - Russell Wilson in the 3rd round.

I want to strengthen the DL and/or OL as the first goal. Taking a shot at a guy in the third round or so wouldn't bother me. Trading draft picks to move up in the first round to get a QB just doesn't make sense to me.

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But you have to try at some point too. Lots of first round picks bust not just QB's and if you never go after the potential elite guy you're in 8-8 purgatory forever. It's risky but the best teams take that risk too.

PNW25 said:

But you have to try at some point too. Lots of first round picks bust not just QB's and if you never go after the potential elite guy you're in 8-8 purgatory forever. It's risky but the best teams take that risk too.

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It seems pretty clear that the bust rates for first round QBs is pretty extraordinary. Here are some numbers...since 2011 there have been 38 QBs picked in the first round, the collective record is 1034-1035-7. Sounds like purgatory to me. (Business Insider - If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace yourself). Also first round picks from 2010 to 2017, only 31 percent signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

I'm not saying give up on picking QBs, I'm saying that it is a risky proposition, especially if your team suffers from fundamental flaws like a bad OL.

Oh and I'll tell you what, just to show I wasn't anti-QB draft picks, if Anthony Richardson was available in the last draft I would have definitely pushed for him.

rigelian said:

It seems pretty clear that the bust rates for first round QBs is pretty extraordinary. Here are some numbers...since 2011 there have been 38 QBs picked in the first round, the collective record is 1034-1035-7. Sounds like purgatory to me. (Business Insider - If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace yourself). Also first round picks from 2010 to 2017, only 31 percent signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

I'm not saying give up on picking QBs, I'm saying that it is a risky proposition, especially if your team suffers from fundamental flaws like a bad OL.

Oh and I'll tell you what, just to show I wasn't anti-QB draft picks, if Anthony Richardson was available in the last draft I would have definitely pushed for him.

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It would be so fun to have Geno and Richardson right now. People have forgotten about him but he flashed some really cool stuff before getting hurt.

PNW25 said:

But you have to try at some point too. Lots of first round picks bust not just QB's and if you never go after the potential elite guy you're in 8-8 purgatory forever. It's risky but the best teams take that risk too.

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You don't have to.

PNW25 said:

It would be so fun to have Geno and Richardson right now. People have forgotten about him but he flashed some really cool stuff before getting hurt.

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That would have been the perfect position, wouldn't it? Not that I'm complaining that we got spoon, but we could have eased Richardson into the NFL and brought him along, assuming we had the coaching staff to do that.

SonicHawk said:

You don't have to.

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You could get lucky like you did with Russ or the Niners did with Purdy. Kind of feels like if you take that approach you need to take a shot every year until you hit

PNW25 said:

You could get lucky like you did with Russ or the Niners did with Purdy. Kind of feels like if you take that approach you need to take a shot every year until you hit

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If you look at the playoffs this year --

Ravens - 1st Rd, 31 (5th Qb)
Bills - 1st Rd, 7 (3rd QB)
Chiefs - 1st Rd, 10 (2nd QB)
Texans - 1st Rd, 2 (2nd QB)
Browns - FA
Dolphins - 1st Rd, 5 (2nd QB)
Steelers ... Kenny Pickett lol
49ers - 7th Rd (9th QB) lol
Cowboys - 4th Rd (8th Qb)
Lions - Trade
Buccaneers - FA
Eagles - 2nd Rd (5th QB)
Rams - Trade
Packers - 1st Rd (4th QB)

I've determined through intense evaluation that I have no idea.

PNW25 said:

You could get lucky like you did with Russ or the Niners did with Purdy. Kind of feels like if you take that approach you need to take a shot every year until you hit

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I honestly don't think they got lucky when they picked Wilson. It was clear that John Schneider saw something in Wilson and it was his guy.

Teams have been getting lucky for decades. The draft is a crap shoot.

rigelian said:

It seems pretty clear that the bust rates for first round QBs is pretty extraordinary. Here are some numbers...since 2011 there have been 38 QBs picked in the first round, the collective record is 1034-1035-7. Sounds like purgatory to me. (Business Insider - If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace yourself). Also first round picks from 2010 to 2017, only 31 percent signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

I'm not saying give up on picking QBs, I'm saying that it is a risky proposition, especially if your team suffers from fundamental flaws like a bad OL.

Oh and I'll tell you what, just to show I wasn't anti-QB draft picks, if Anthony Richardson was available in the last draft I would have definitely pushed for him.

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Information without context.

What was the record of those teams the year before they drafted the 1st round QB? QB is the position most vulnerable to failure based on the system and/or other players. So, if most QBs taken in the first round “bust” how much of that has to do with being drafted by the worst teams in the league.

I’m guessing, without looking, that most of the 1st round QBs are taken in the top 5 picks going to the worst 5 teams in the NFL with a far smaller number going from #10 or lower going into better systems/teams.

As a GM if you are too scared to draft a QB in the first round you probably should find a job more suited for cowardice.

That's kind of funny. The draft was of first round picks period. Not the top five, not the bottom five. Also, the numbers looked at the QBs over a long time. The first stat was a career number, the second was whether a QB is retained after their rookie contract. In balance it comes out to about a
.500 winning percentage. Are you suggesting that having a horrible team is not much improved by a first round pick? That's where your reasoning leads.

As for as cowardice is concerned, rationality is my aim, not recklessness.

rigelian said:

I think people are generally unrealistic in assessing the likelihood of getting the so called QBOtf. Many teams have tanked trying to get this done. Cleveland, New York, (both New York teams), Carolina, etc. For every Mahomes, there are Zach Wilson's, Trey Lances, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones... you get the picture.

So when I hear people scream, let's just pick the QB of the future I just roll my eyes. Pick QBs...yes, but you don't dismantle your team in this effort. I mean if you find your guy take your shot, e.g., - Russell Wilson in the 3rd round.

I want to strengthen the DL and/or OL as the first goal. Taking a shot at a guy in the third round or so wouldn't bother me. Trading draft picks to move up in the first round to get a QB just doesn't make sense to me.

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It worked for KC. The hit rate for qb's after the top half of the 1st is abysmal. We got extremely lucky with Russ, although I do agree that JS knew what he was doing there. You can count the number of qb's drafted in the 3rd that have succeeded on one hand with fingers left over. If JS can pull that kind of magic in the later rounds again, great. But I wouldn't bank on it.

rigelian said:

That's kind of funny. The draft was of first round picks period. Not the top five, not the bottom five. Also, the numbers looked at the QBs over a long time. The first stat was a career number, the second was whether a QB is retained after their rookie contract. In balance it comes out to about a
.500 winning percentage. Are you suggesting that having a horrible team is not much improved by a first round pick? That's where your reasoning leads.

As for as cowardice is concerned, rationality is my aim, not recklessness.

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I am suggesting that most 1st round QBs are drafted very early in the round so they are going to the worst teams with the worst systems and players thus skewing the numbers. There are always QBs taken top 5 and I am assuming far less taken later. So, that skews the numbers.

if you separated out the success/failure rates of QBs picked in the top 10 with and that of 11-32 I would imagine there would be a telling difference in results as the second group is going to better teams.

I think the talent and potential of the earlier drafted QBs is higher but because of coaching and players the earlier drafted QBs are often failed by the team at a higher % than the later 1st round QBs are Though many still succeed.

rigelian said:

It seems pretty clear that the bust rates for first round QBs is pretty extraordinary. Here are some numbers...since 2011 there have been 38 QBs picked in the first round, the collective record is 1034-1035-7. Sounds like purgatory to me. (Business Insider - If your team drafts a 'franchise' quarterback in the first round, brace yourself). Also first round picks from 2010 to 2017, only 31 percent signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

I'm not saying give up on picking QBs, I'm saying that it is a risky proposition, especially if your team suffers from fundamental flaws like a bad OL.

Oh and I'll tell you what, just to show I wasn't anti-QB draft picks, if Anthony Richardson was available in the last draft I would have definitely pushed for him.

Click to expand...

The comparatively cheaper Draft picks become the higher you will need to pick a risky QB, because if you don't a competitor will. Draft pick salaries will increase annually by an average of 6% until the next CBA. If the cap keeps increasing by a substantially higher rate then it will become cheaper to gamble higher in the Draft.

Here are the quarterback draft picks in the top ten picks from the NFL Draft 2015 to 2023:

2023
* Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (1st, 1) Incomplete
* C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (1st, 2) Hit
* Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1st, 4) Incomplete


2022
* Malik Willis, Pittsburgh Steelers (1st, 1) M
* Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons (1st, 2) M
* Sam Howell, Washington M Commanders (1st, 7)

2021
* Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (1st, 1) H
* Zach Wilson, New York Jets (1st, 2) M
* Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (1st, 3) M
* Mac Jones, New England Patriots (1st, 6) M

2020
* Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (1st, 2) Hit
* Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (1st, 5) Hit
* Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (1st, 6) Hit

2019
* Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (1st, 1) ?
* Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins (1st, 2) M
* Daniel Jones, New York Giants (1st, 3) M

2018
* Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (1st, 1) M
* Sam Darnold, New York Jets (1st, 2) M
* Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (1st, 3) H

2017
* Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (1st, 2) M
* Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (1st, 10) H

2016
* Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (1st, 1) M
* Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (1st, 2) M


2015
* Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st, 1) M
* Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (1st, 2) M

My assessment of their success on their original teams.
M = Missed
I = Incomplete
H = Hit

My question is which of these guys would you call a QBotf? What would be your hit rate?