If we win out we can still grab the 7 seed with ease

[TraderGary]

The Saints highly unexpected win against the Bucs tonight was a big blow for any Seahawks hopes of making the playoffs, even if the Hawks win out and finish 9-8. Obviously, the biggest obstacle we would need to overcome are the head-to-head tiebreakers with the teams we are battling against for the final playoff spot……. Saints, Vikings, and WFT.


Here’s our path to the playoffs as it stands tonight (Sunday Dec 19th)

SEAHAWKS (5-8) – Must win out and finish 9-8 for any realistic chance, and will still need some help from other teams. Remaining schedule – Rams, Bears, Lions, Cardinals


Should the Seahawks win out, 4 of these 6 scenarios still must happen for the Hawks to get in:

RAMS (9-4) – Seahawks would need the Rams to lose their final 4 games and the Hawks would own the tiebreaker based on better division record. Remaining schedule – Seahawks, Vikings, Ravens, 49ers. Not impossible but highly unlikely.

49ERS (8-6) – Seahawks own the tiebreaker due to season sweep so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 3 games. Remaining schedule – Titans, Texans, Rams

SAINTS (7-7) – Saints own tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 3 games. Remaining schedule – Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons

VIKINGS (6-7) - Vikings own tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – Bears, Rams, Packers, Bears

WFT (6-7) - WFT owns tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – Eagles, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants

EAGLES (6-7) – Eagles own tiebreaker due to better conference record so they would need to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – WFT, Giants, WFT, Cowboys


Teams with similar records still in the hunt:

FALCONS (6-8) - Seahawks would own tiebreaker based on better conference record so should the Hawks pull off the upset against the Rams, we would have identical records and hold the tiebreaker. Remaining schedule – Lions, Bills, Saints


There’s little doubt in my mind that either the Cardinals or Rams are going to win the division and the other one will be a WC. I also believe the 49ers will take the 2nd WC spot. That leaves the Hawks to battle the Saints, Vikings, WFT and the Eagles for that 3rd WC, all of which own the tiebreaker against us.

Right now the Saints own that spot which is why the Saints beating the Bucs tonight really hurt. And looking at their remaining schedule, it’s not exactly a who’s who of the NFL.

As you can see, our chances are not good, but not impossible. But first things first, we must take care of business against the Rams on Tuesday and hope for a lot of help the rest of the way.

 

[getnasty]

The Saints highly unexpected win against the Bucs tonight was a big blow for any Seahawks hopes of making the playoffs, even if the Hawks win out and finish 9-8. Obviously, the biggest obstacle we would need to overcome are the head-to-head tiebreakers with the teams we are battling against for the final playoff spot……. Saints, Vikings, and WFT.


Here’s our path to the playoffs as it stands tonight (Sunday Dec 19th)

SEAHAWKS (5-8) – Must win out and finish 9-8 for any realistic chance, and will still need some help from other teams. Remaining schedule – Rams, Bears, Lions, Cardinals


Should the Seahawks win out, 4 of these 6 scenarios still must happen for the Hawks to get in:

RAMS (9-4) – Seahawks would need the Rams to lose their final 4 games and the Hawks would own the tiebreaker based on better division record. Remaining schedule – Seahawks, Vikings, Ravens, 49ers. Not impossible but highly unlikely.

49ERS (8-6) – Seahawks own the tiebreaker due to season sweep so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 3 games. Remaining schedule – Titans, Texans, Rams

SAINTS (7-7) – Saints own tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 3 games. Remaining schedule – Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons

VIKINGS (6-7) - Vikings own tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – Bears, Rams, Packers, Bears

WFT (6-7) - WFT owns tiebreaker (head-to-head) so we would need them to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – Eagles, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants

EAGLES (6-7) – Eagles own tiebreaker due to better conference record so they would need to lose 2 of their final 4 games. Remaining schedule – WFT, Giants, WFT, Cowboys


Teams with similar records still in the hunt:

FALCONS (6-8) - Seahawks would own tiebreaker based on better conference record so should the Hawks pull off the upset against the Rams, we would have identical records and hold the tiebreaker. Remaining schedule – Lions, Bills, Saints


There’s little doubt in my mind that either the Cardinals or Rams are going to win the division and the other one will be a WC. I also believe the 49ers will take the 2nd WC spot. That leaves the Hawks to battle the Saints, Vikings, WFT and the Eagles for that 3rd WC, all of which own the tiebreaker against us.

Right now the Saints own that spot which is why the Saints beating the Bucs tonight really hurt. And looking at their remaining schedule, it’s not exactly a who’s who of the NFL.

As you can see, our chances are not good, but not impossible. But first things first, we must take care of business against the Rams on Tuesday and hope for a lot of help the rest of the way.

Well done!

 

[RiverDog]

That's a really good summation of the required scenarios, but with so many teams playing each other, we're going to have to start hoping for some ties, which seems less likely as more teams are opting to try for the win in regulation by going for two following a potential game tying touchdown rather than kicking the XP and taking their chances in OT as was the conventional wisdom.

And I would assess our chances a little less optimistically than "not good", more like very slim. As of 11:18 pm last night, Five Thirty-Eight has pegged our chances of making the playoffs at 2%, or 1 in 50.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Dug too big of a hole for themselves imo. They had no business losing the Saints, WFT, Steelers or Titans games. At the MINIMUM, they split those 4 and they are looking good. Just too many teams in front of them.
That being said, let's see them finish strong, and maybe do some spoiling.
After the almighty crowned way too early Cards got DOMINATED by a 1 win team, anything can happen. We have seen it several times in 2021. Still gotta' lace em up.

 

[RiverDog]

Dug too big of a hole for themselves imo. They had no business losing the Saints, WFT, Steelers or Titans games. At the MINIMUM, they split those 4 and they are looking good. Just too many teams in front of them.
That being said, let's see them finish strong, and maybe do some spoiling.
After the almighty crowned way too early Cards got DOMINATED by a 1 win team, anything can happen. We have seen it several times in 2021. Still gotta' lace em up.

Yup, it's a mirror opposite of our 2020 season when we won those close games and had an over inflated 12-4 record. The reality is that we're a .500ish team, have been for quite some time now. We're fighting with other mediocre teams for table scraps.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Sometimes it's just not your year. Every team in this division has had a crap sammich of a year, it was our turn I guess. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but they are a good, not great team. They are capable of doing some good things, but playoffs are just not happening this year. IF they finally can beat the Rams, it will at least make it interesting. Though even if they run the table, too many teams above them need to lose.

I would love to be wrong though.

 

[RiverDog]

Sometimes it's just not your year. Every team in this division has had a crap sammich of a year, it was our turn I guess. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but they are a good, not great team. They are capable of doing some good things, but playoffs are just not happening this year. IF they finally can beat the Rams, it will at least make it interesting. Though even if they run the table, too many teams above them need to lose.

I would love to be wrong though.

It hasn't been "our year" for a long time. Unless a miracle happens, we will not have had a season where we've won more than one playoff game for the past 7 years and will have gone 5 years having won just one playoff game. Now we're face-to-face with the prospect of missing the playoffs, finishing last in our division, and our first losing record in 10 years. At some point, we're going to have to look ourselves in the mirror and admit that we're not very good.

 

[nutluck]

Sometimes it's just not your year. Every team in this division has had a crap sammich of a year, it was our turn I guess. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but they are a good, not great team. They are capable of doing some good things, but playoffs are just not happening this year. IF they finally can beat the Rams, it will at least make it interesting. Though even if they run the table, too many teams above them need to lose.

I would love to be wrong though.

It hasn't been "our year" for a long time. Unless a miracle happens, we will not have had a season where we've won more than one playoff game for the past 7 years and will have gone 5 years having won just one playoff game. Now we're face-to-face with the prospect of missing the playoffs, finishing last in our division, and our first losing record in 10 years. At some point, we're going to have to look ourselves in the mirror and admit that we're not very good.

Then of course you have to ask, how much is players and how much is coaches/poor drafting. Coaching using the player the wrong way or just not able to get the most out of them or come up with good schemes that fits the players strength.

I am hoping for a interesting offseason and not see things run back as if this was just a fluke of a season.