If we win out we can still grab the 7 seed with ease

[HawkOG70’]

I have a feeling there will be at least 4 teams at 9-8 fighting for the 7 seed so I wonder how the tie breaker system plays out. Realistically I give them about a 65% chance at making the dance if they win out. Still would've been nice to beat the Skins tho. The Redskins are woeful can't believe we keep losing to those scrubs

 

[Rat]

We lost to three of the teams we'd be fighting for that spot with (WFT, Vikings, Saints). That can't help.

 

[Somos doces]

If we win out we can still grab the 7 seed with ease

I have a feeling there will be at least 4 teams at 9-8 fighting for the 7 seed so I wonder how the tie breaker system plays out. Realistically I give them about a 65% chance at making the dance if they win out. Still would've been nice to beat the Skins tho. The Redskins are woeful can't believe we keep losing to those scrubs

I'm confused — are you on the Seahawks or not?

 

[nutluck]

Odds are still against it, there is currently 6 teams ahead of the Hawks for the 7th wildcard spot. 3 of them have effectively a 2 game lead, WTF, Saints, and Vikings have a 1 game lead and all have a head to head tie breaker the most important one. So the hawks have to finish with a better record than all of those teams.

Then you have 2 teams with a 1 game lead and currently with a conference tie breaker that is Falcons and Eagles. Worse the Eagles have a 2 game tie breaker lead in the conference with only 4 games to go. So good chance they will hold the tie breaker as well.

Finally you have the Panthers with a tie record but currently owns the tie breaker of 3-6 conf to hawks 2-6.

So the panthers really are not a threat IMHO. The main problem is the three teams with effective 2 game leads over the hawks. For the hawks to get in they need to win 2 more games than the WTF, Saints and Vikings. Which means all three of them need to lose at least 2 games each if the Hawks run the table. The odds of that happening is high unlikely, great if they did but just don't see it, they dug just to deep of a hole this year to pull out a last minute run to get in.

And before anyone points out the 9er's they also have a 2 game lead over the hawks but the hawks own the head to head tie breaker over them.

Not down on the Hawks just looking at what is ahead and I just don't see that many other teams losing 50% or more of their remaining games and the hawks going on a 4 game winning streak. If they lose next week to the Rams it is pretty much over.

 

[chris98251]

Odds are still against it, there is currently 6 teams ahead of the Hawks for the 7th wildcard spot. 3 of them have effectively a 2 game lead, WTF, Saints, and Vikings have a 1 game lead and all have a head to head tie breaker the most important one. So the hawks have to finish with a better record than all of those teams.

Then you have 2 teams with a 1 game lead and currently with a conference tie breaker that is Falcons and Eagles. Worse the Eagles have a 2 game tie breaker lead in the conference with only 4 games to go. So good chance they will hold the tie breaker as well.

Finally you have the Panthers with a tie record but currently owns the tie breaker of 3-6 conf to hawks 2-6.

So the panthers really are not a threat IMHO. The main problem is the three teams with effective 2 game leads over the hawks. For the hawks to get in they need to win 2 more games than the WTF, Saints and Vikings. Which means all three of them need to lose at least 2 games each if the Hawks run the table. The odds of that happening is high unlikely, great if they did but just don't see it, they dug just to deep of a hole this year to pull out a last minute run to get in.

And before anyone points out the 9er's they also have a 2 game lead over the hawks but the hawks own the head to head tie breaker over them.

Not down on the Hawks just looking at what is ahead and I just don't see that many other teams losing 50% or more of their remaining games and the hawks going on a 4 game winning streak. If they lose next week to the Rams it is pretty much over.

All true, but Pete will keep the math possibilities in his motivation to keep the team engaged and not in protect or check out mode as long as he can, he has too for his own job I think. Odds are long, but hey we got in on long odds before, also you have guys playing for contracts next year so if they have been hurt or not had a lot of chances and need to show something to improve their market value.

 

[AROS]

I agree, even if we win out, the tiebreaker scenario will murder us. We lost to too many teams that will have the edge over us straight up.

 

[pittpnthrs]

They arent going to win out anyways so its all a moot point.

 

[JGreen79]

The Vikings is the team that hurts, if Philly gets the tie breaker over Washington, and Atl gets the tie breaker over NO then the head to heads vs SEA won't matter.

Philly likely wins the conf record tie breaker over Seattle. Best case scenario philly and Washington split, and Sea ends up tied with ATL, Min, and SF. That would give Min the 6th seed and Sea the 7th

 

[RiverDog]

I have a feeling there will be at least 4 teams at 9-8 fighting for the 7 seed so I wonder how the tie breaker system plays out. Realistically I give them about a 65% chance at making the dance if they win out. Still would've been nice to beat the Skins tho. The Redskins are woeful can't believe we keep losing to those scrubs

There are currently 6 teams (Niners, Vikings, Saints, WFT, Eagles, and Panthers) that are ahead of us in the wild card race. Of those 6, there are 3 teams that own head to head tiebreakers with us: The Vikings, the Saints, and WTF. We own the tiebreaker with the the Niners but they have a two game lead. The Eagles have 4 conference losses to our 6 and a stronger SOS so they also have to lose twice. Having given the 5th seed to either the Rams or Cards, here's what has to happen for us to secure the 6th seed:

The Vikings would have to lose 2 of their last 4 games (Bears x2, Rams, Packers)

WFT needs to lose 2 of their last 4 (Eagles x2, Giants, Cowboys)

Saints lose 2 of their last 4 (Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons)

Eagles lose 2 of their last 4 (WFT x2, Giants, Cowboys)

The Niners would have to lose 2 of their last 4 (Falcons, Texans, Titans, Rams)

There's other, more freakish scenarios, like the 5-8 Panthers winning out and if this or that team ties, but I didn't take those into consideration.

That's 5 teams that would all have to go .500 or worse in their last 4 games. That's equivalent to waiting up on Christmas eve waiting for Santa to come down the chimney.

 

[nutluck]

There are currently 6 teams (Niners, Vikings, Saints, WFT, Eagles, and Panthers) that are ahead of us in the wild card race. Here's what has to happen in order for us to qualify for the 6th and final seed in the NFC even if we were to win out:

There are 3 teams that own head to head tiebreakers with us: The Vikings, the Saints, and WTF. The Eagles have 4 conference losses to our 6 and a stronger SOS.

The Vikings would have to lose 2 of their last 4 games (Bears x2, Rams, Packers)

WFT needs to lose 2 of their last 4 (Eagles x2, Giants, Cowboys)

Saints lose 2 of their last 4 (Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons)

Eagles lose 2 of their last 4 (WFT x2, Giants, Cowboys)

The Niners would have to lose 2 of their last 4 (Falcons, Texans, Titans, Rams)

There's other, more freakish scenarios, like the 5-8 Panthers winning out, but I didn't take those into consideration.

That's 5 teams that would all have to go .500 or worse in their last 4 games. That's equivalent to waiting up on Christmas eve waiting for Santa to come down the chimney.

And the Hawks have to win out which includes playing Rams, Lions, Bears and Cards, which I think is unlikely as the above happening and both have to happen.

 

[RiverDog]

And the Hawks have to win out which includes playing Rams, Lions, Bears and Cards, which I think is unlikely as the above happening and both have to happen.

Correct. We lose one of those last 4, which the way the Rams looked last night seems more likely than not, and the scenarios get even more complicated.

The other thing that happened last night was that with the Cards losing, they're more likely to have to play out their entire schedule instead of being able to mail in Week 18 with us if they were to have clinched the #1 seed and first round bye. There's now 3 teams in the NFC tied for the top seed with a 10-3 record.

 

[HawkOG70’]

If we win out we can still grab the 7 seed with ease

I have a feeling there will be at least 4 teams at 9-8 fighting for the 7 seed so I wonder how the tie breaker system plays out. Realistically I give them about a 65% chance at making the dance if they win out. Still would've been nice to beat the Skins tho. The Redskins are woeful can't believe we keep losing to those scrubs

I'm confused — are you on the Seahawks or not?

As a fan that has invested time and money into this organization I say "we" in reference to "us" as Seahawk fans. Am I a 12? Of course but I rarely use the term at face value

 

[xray]

This topic has been cooked already . Stick a fork in it .

 

[SoulfishHawk]

You mean like taking shots at Russ on every single thread xray? Stick a fork in that too :irishdrinkers:

 

[cymatica]

I don't understand the 65% chance. Did you just pull it out of thin air or use statistics factoring in the other teams that own tiebreakers? 65% would imply they have a better than average chance, yet they are depending on several other teams tanking the last few games

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Extremely slim chances. But they still can finish strong and do some spoiling to finish it out. Just lost too many close games, and it caught up to them. But, they are fighting, and I like seeing that. Just not our season overall.
Game #17 is at the Cards. That could end up being a great chance to spoil the Cards chances at a top seed. Overall, the Cards look overrated imo.
Can't stand the Rams, but that was an impressive win last night. And they are scary good when they are on point.
But, come playoff time, Stafford and/or Murray in a big game? :yawn:

 

[HawkOG70’]

I don't understand the 65% chance. Did you just pull it out of thin air or use statistics factoring in the other teams that own tiebreakers? 65% would imply they have a better than average chance, yet they are depending on several other teams tanking the last few games

Yeah it's basically a rough estimate. The 49ers will likely go 2-2 or 1-3 and Seattle I have a feeling is hitting their stride late. It might prove to be too little too late but we would beat them in a 7 seed tie breaker and if Minnesota-Seattle and SF are all 9-8 how does the tie breaker work? Does it go to conference record after H2H?

 

[chris98251]

Enter the Covid Man, it is decimating teams now, could change a lot of things.

[youtube]CD-E-LDc384[/youtube]

 

[HawkOG70’]

Metallica Rocks but then again so does AIC

 

[cymatica]

I don't understand the 65% chance. Did you just pull it out of thin air or use statistics factoring in the other teams that own tiebreakers? 65% would imply they have a better than average chance, yet they are depending on several other teams tanking the last few games

Yeah it's basically a rough estimate. The 49ers will likely go 2-2 or 1-3 and Seattle I have a feeling is hitting their stride late. It might prove to be too little too late but we would beat them in a 7 seed tie breaker and if Minnesota-Seattle and SF are all 9-8 how does the tie breaker work? Does it go to conference record after H2H?

Vikings, WFT, and Saints all own the tiebreakers and 2 of those teams would have to lose 2 games while Seattle wins out, and 49ers also need 2 losses. I'm not sure about Falcons and Eagles but they both have 1 less loss, assuming we win those tiebreakers they both need a loss.

Basically, the odds of making the playoffs if Seattle wins out is nowhere near 65%. I'm not a statistician, but 10 to 20% would sound more reasonable. They are relying heavily on several playoff hungry teams, 3 of which already beat them, to choke their seasons away.