It's like looking at the worse of what both teams fear happening.....I looked at the Hawks at their worse (KC, SD, Dallas, STL) vs. the Pats at their worse (KC, MIA, GB and a garbage game thrown in vs. BUF late)......what's left out of this "equation" is how badly the Pats struggle with the Jets......yes the Jets.
I look at the Jets game plan under Rex Ryan as the blueprint for how this game goes.....it's these games where the Jets defense (especially prior to this year) look like vs NE.....OK to solid OL play.....aggressive, hard running game, not explosive WR's and TE's that exploited the defense of Pats at the safety position.
The difference between the Jets offense under Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith is obviously the ability of Wilson to make plays AND to avoid negative plays that took the Jets out of "comfort-level".....that means without holding penalties or well-time blitzes, NE really was forced to rally to the football and try to contain the running game, which at times, when the Jets stuck to it, they eventually wore down the Patriots and had success.....I would not have this as an advantage if the Pats had Jerod Mayo, who frankly is their best defensive player (yes that includes Wilfork and Revis)
So I don't see how the Seahawks are not able to essentially execute the same bland, vanilla offensive game plan against the Patriots....it involves running, screens, draws and safe but frustrating passes to the safe WR's, which frustrates the Pat defense.....Haush should have 5 FG attempts if the game goes as planned.
Where the Jets lost games was because they eventually decided that they needed to blitz and lacked the safety play to take away the middle of the field.....that is into the strength of the Hawk defense with Wagner, Kam and ETIII.....Gronk or no Gronk, the similarities are Brady throws 88% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.....into traffic, into tight windows, under pressure.....
When the Jets essentially pressured Brady inside with Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, they forced Brady to shuffle and recoil and make inaccurate throws....what the Jets lacked with this interior push against the Pats, was a true "Speed rush off the edge".....the Jets at times forced the issue by blitzing and leaving 1-1 matchups which in the middle of the field is Brady's strength....dissect, fire and hit WR that get first downs and demoralize a defense......that is not what the Seahawks game plan is, it will be bracket, cover, tackle and make Brady go 8 of 10 on drives for 7 first downs and move the chains....
Another aspect is the Pats have abandoned their running game when they don't move the ball and almost run out of frustration that Brady isn't having a high completion percentage game.....that will be where I can see Blount getting yards, after Brady has been harassed, sacked or knocked off his preferred spot.....I see a lot of shotgun formations and one-back sets, which is a finesse formation that doesn't allow for a signal to the defense that it's anything else other than "pass"....if you delay handoff to Blount or their other back, Wagner and others will vacuum them up.
The difference is Seattle's defense has the playmakers to make the plays while rushing 4 and getting a push inside.
The only way NE wins this game is if we start like we did against GB.....which wasn't necessarily bad, but was aided by turnovers on drops and Baldwin's KO fumble.....to be frank, Seattle was rattled and GB was set up in our territory all game long and NE will not get 5 TO's.
On offense for Seattle, it's pretty simple......spread formation with 3WR and Luke Willson spread wide, creating running lanes and make NE tackle the initial bubble screens and short passes....then carve inside with not Beast Mode, but unsung hero, Robert Turbin......Turbin, is the X-FACTOR.....he creates a problem for NE's defense.....he's 2 steps faster into the hole vs Lynch and NE is not going to stack the box and defend Turbin the same way they will attack Lynch.
Turbin will likely churn a couple of first downs which will add more time of possession before Lynch starts to get more carries into the 2nd quarter and saves himself for "Closing" in the 3rd quarter and into the 4th.
All Seattle needs to do is churn out 1st downs, avoid turnovers, punt and keep NE from a short field.....Hauschka should pile up 4FG's in the first half and generate a lead that is 12-6 or 17-6 Seattle.
Once the 2nd half revolves around and the Pats realize that they aren't going to get "freebies" that Green Bay was given, they will press and have to abandon the run and Seattle's pass rush will start to erode their confidence.....late 3rd, Beast Mode starts to lean on them and as the game moves forward, it becomes a battle of whether NE panics and starts pushing passes downfield.
After a early Lynch TD in the 4th makes is 26-9, Pats score and pull within 11, Hauch ices it late with another 40 yard FG to make it 29-17.....Seattle executes the Jets game plan and Pats are not playing the Jets....