The Danger Of Overpaying Quarterbacks

BleuEyedHawk

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I think the most interesting development that could potentially present itself this season is Wilson has his best statistical year, is in the MVP talk or maybe even wins, but the Broncos win 9 or 10 games and don't make the playoffs. I know, can't win MVP if you're not in the playoffs, but if he has a year like that it'd be tough to overlook. They won 7 games last year so is that a successful trade? What happens if it the OLine feels blamed for a week 17 loss? Does he get his 50MM contract? Are Wilson jerseys the hottest sellers in the league or are they burning them in the parking lot? Intriguing... I'm kind of starting to look forward to the season....

In addition to our team, I'll be watching these side acts: Wilson, Watson, Kyler Murray, the Browns and Baker Mayfield, and the entire AFC West competition to name a few. There's also Brady and his un-retirement. I'm looking forward to this season even more than most.
 

had2bhawk

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We FINALLY have QBs that are willing and able to throw to all parts of the field, and some of you are arguing about limiting their chances to accel by removing one of their best weapons. Are you really that scared that they will outdo Wilson this season that you want the Seahawks to be in a worse position offensively?
There might not be as many long bombs but I believe short and over the middle completions will make up the difference. The ability to run the ball will help all receivers find open ground. Lockett will be a big mentor this training camp. DK will be drawing coverage and the bomb will happen as the game goes on. These receivers have talent and can make alot of QB's look good.
 

Jegpeg

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The NFL is built making it hard for winning teams to continue to win. Successful teams have successful players, that other teams would be willing to sign at much more than their current salary, when their contract expires you have to either pay them much more or let them go and replace them with players that other teams are not willing ot pay top dollar for (nearly always worse players)
When the Seahawks were in two successive superbowls it wasn't just RW that demanded a big payday but all the star players. Sherman's pay went from 500k p.a. to 14m, Wagner's from 1.1m to 11m KJ Wright's from 0.5m to 7m, Baldwon went from EFA pay in 1013 to 10.5m p.a. in 2016. It wasn't just Wilson's $22m that meant we could keep the rest of the team together.

The reason most teams pay QBs very highly is finding even a middle of the road QB is very hard especially if you don't have a high 1st round draft pick. The nearest I can find to the RW situation is the Colts trading out Petyton Manning. It was a little different as the trade was done after he had been out injured for a season which they finished 2-14 so a) The Colts new they had the number 1 pick in a draft loaded with QB talent and b) They was a risk Manning would not be the same after his injury. They ended up with a team that made the play-off for the next 3 seasons but never made a SB.
 

LeaveLynchAlone

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Also, Carroll has to have a great QB to make up for his many shortcomings. The poor gameplanning alone requires an exceptional QB to overcome. Carroll is a gameday negative, you have to have a gameday positive to offset it.
Since using emojis to comment seems to be frowned upon from at least one of the on-high mods, I will refrain from using the poop emoji to comment on your diarrhea commentary.

You believe Pete Carroll is the reason for all that is wrong with the world and the Seahawks and I believe your beliefs are at best Taco Bell flatulence. You certainly can spread the feces thick with your hatred, but your crap continues to stink.

This coming year will be interesting whatever the record the Seahawks have and keeping Pete was the best choice and in reality the clear choice given how off kilter Russ had gone from a true TEAM mindset.

I'll enjoy seeing you cheer on Denver when/if they win and smugly profess your superior football knowledge ... as if.

Incessantly typing the same opinions does not actually make them any more true then the first time you state them.


Since you continue to express falsehoods masked as truth maybe you can learn a little about how the narrative you have built is not all that convincing for anyone who simply thinks a bit.

Quote from the last paragraph of the linked article above --

"But part of guarding against the illusion is the obligation it puts on us to stop repeating falsehoods. We live in a world where the facts matter, and should matter. If you repeat things without bothering to check if they are true, you are helping to make a world where lies and truth are easier to confuse. So, please, think before you repeat."
 
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toffee

toffee

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The chances of winning the big game when you've got a top talent qb are offset by the impact paying that player has on the rest of the team.

Didn't Brady win the majority of his Superbiwls while not breaking the bank? Seems there are plenty of examples of teams going to the big game with sub top cap hit qb's.

The best and highest paid qb in the league (was) A Rodgers has won how many rings? Mahomes has been there in his first few years the same number of times we were at the start of Pete's tenure, and you can see them struggling now to retain talent.

Thr Packers? I doubt they will seriously contend again. But there's a considerable window open now for the league's young guns while they're either yet to break the bank, or their teams are yet to really feel the effects of having to pay them.

And the argument that the money doesn't matter anymore or that 50 mil isn't what it used to be is right and wrong. It's not like the other positions salaries aren't also going through the roof... still have to make the money work.

And honestly, if you have me the choice of being the Titans right now or the Packers, I'd pick Tennessee. They have a team with a better chance to shore up gaps in talent and make a push given the cap hit their qb is taking. The Packers have arguably the best qb if all time, multiple MVP winner, but have mortgaged future success to keep him happy. I'd put my money on Carr and Adams and the rest of the Raiders over Rodgers and whoever he's throwing to this season.
With Lock, we have a low cap QB. By this time next year we will have CAP for all kinds of FAs.
 

chrispy

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Fade

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How does watching the same video result in such disparate interpretations?

It said no team, ever, in the history of the league, has ever won a SuperBowl with the QB making more than 12.2% of Cap (Brady/Tampa)... and that's the highest ever. In 2022, 12.2% of the 208MM cap is 25 million.

Doesn't that disprove the idea that paying for an elite QB is a realistic way to win a SB?
Brady's cap number in 2020 was $28M. I remember this because Wilson's was $31M. That $28M was pushing 14%.

The Rams last year won the Superbike with a $21M dead money charge of Goff, and paying Stafford over $20M.

The Reason why teams who pay their QBs don't win super bowls is for 3 reasons.

1. The NFL has had a culture that the next QB up becomes the highest paid, or thereabouts. You don't have to be top 5 to get top 5 money. These guys make up the bulk of the numbers. When you'd never win a superbowl with them anyway, whether they were paid or not.

2. They often play for top offensive coaches, the system pads out their numbers. They get paid, but the coach doesn't know how to build a defense. Has nothing to do with the QB being. The offensive coach isn't capable of building a defense. We saw this first hand with Holmy and Hass.

3. Its hard to win a Superbowl period. It takes being historically great on one side of the ball, and good to very good on the other.

Or be damn good on both sides of the ball.
 

Perseus68

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I hope RW goes down for the year game #1, remember last time Denver got us a high round #1 pick. I hope Drew Lock has a good year and we win less than 5 games. Looking for high draft picks that Schneider can trade to set us up for a few years. 2023 should be loaded with QB’s.
 

TwistedHusky

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LLA,

Weirdly personal take but whatever. You clearly believe Carroll is still effective.

I don't.

I do think Carroll's potential success hinges on him getting another top QB now. The chances of that are slim but JS supposedly has some sixth sense about that - it would be preferable to believe that he can do it again, as was hinted in his interest in Josh Allen and Mahomes. If you recall, when news came out that he was sniffing around Josh Allen people thought he was crazy - because nobody expected Josh Allen to be as good as Wilson. (What people were projecting with Allen was kind of Carson Wentz type thing. Wentz was in MVP conversations for a while, but was more of a peak/valley QB.)

So let's assume that JS can fix this and get us another stud QB because that is all we can hope for.

But to imply that Carroll has no egregious flaws makes me wonder if you even watch the games. Pete succeeded because he did several things exceptionally well, both in talent dev and in finding ways of utilizing players in ways that leverage their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. He hasn't done that for a while though. And his drafting has been between average and below average for 5+ years, but for the 1 year where we haven't actually seen the players on the field. (?>?)

Carroll HIMSELF admitted he was failing to adjust and 'being arrogant' about his defense - his words not mine.
So the moment you fail to acknowledge Pete's weaknesses or pretend they do not exist, you lose credibility.

The problem isn't his weaknesses. Everyone has them. His are just problems because usually you want coaches to be good or at least competent at those things.
The problem is that he hasn't been effective lately at the very things he was good at that made up for those weaknesses.

You obviously believe he is still an above-average coach. I don't.

But I have tended to be correct about almost every single part of this slow collapse, with the exception of Russ not extending here. From the impact of the Harvin trade, to the Unger trade, to us not reaching the SB again after our SB loss - pretty much every aspect of this slow slide to mediocrity was pointed out at the moment and the impact to our future outlined. And it went down exactly as called, with the exception of Wilson extending. So I understand it might take you a while to get to the point where you realize what was obvious to some of us some time ago.

Maybe Carroll is still capable at those things, but for the past 5 years he has shown little to nothing to even hint he can be good at those aspects of being an effective GM/coach anymore. We have to hope he can though because the alternative is an unpleasant outcome.
 
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chrispy

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Brady's cap number in 2020 was $28M. I remember this because Wilson's was $31M. That $28M was pushing 14%.

The Rams last year won the Superbike with a $21M dead money charge of Goff, and paying Stafford over $20M.

The Reason why teams who pay their QBs don't win super bowls is for 3 reasons.

1. The NFL has had a culture that the next QB up becomes the highest paid, or thereabouts. You don't have to be top 5 to get top 5 money. These guys make up the bulk of the numbers. When you'd never win a superbowl with them anyway, whether they were paid or not.

2. They often play for top offensive coaches, the system pads out their numbers. They get paid, but the coach doesn't know how to build a defense. Has nothing to do with the QB being. The offensive coach isn't capable of building a defense. We saw this first hand with Holmy and Hass.

3. Its hard to win a Superbowl period. It takes being historically great on one side of the ball, and good to very good on the other.

Or be damn good on both sides of the ball.
What you say makes sense. I'm not disagreeing. The reasons can be debated, but do the reasons really matter? It seems a proven fact at this point that paying a QB more than 13% (+/-) of Cap results invariably in failing to win the Superbowl. It's as predictable a way to lose as scoring fewer points. 100%, every time. It just seems astounding that any FO expects to pay significantly more, as much as 25% of cap, and somehow be an exception.

Trading away a QB that demands more than 13% of cap is the only way to win a SuperBowl.



Here's another more recent article:

 

Perseus68

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LLA,

Weirdly personal take but whatever. You clearly believe Carroll is still effective.

I don't.

I do think Carroll's potential success hinges on him getting another top QB now. The chances of that are slim but JS supposedly has some sixth sense about that - it would be preferable to believe that he can do it again, as was hinted in his interest in Josh Allen and Mahomes. If you recall, when news came out that he was sniffing around Josh Allen people thought he was crazy - because nobody expected Josh Allen to be as good as Wilson. (What people were projecting with Allen was kind of Carson Wentz type thing. Wentz was in MVP conversations for a while, but was more of a peak/valley QB.)

So let's assume that JS can fix this and get us another stud QB because that is all we can hope for.

But to imply that Carroll has no egregious flaws makes me wonder if you even watch the games. Pete succeeded because he did several things exceptionally well, both in talent dev and in finding ways of utilizing players in ways that leverage their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. He hasn't done that for a while though. And his drafting has been between average and below average for 5+ years, but for the 1 year where we haven't actually seen the players on the field. (?>?)

Carroll HIMSELF admitted he was failing to adjust and 'being arrogant' about his defense - his words not mine.
So the moment you fail to acknowledge Pete's weaknesses or pretend they do not exist, you lose credibility.

The problem isn't his weaknesses. Everyone has them. His are just problems because usually you want coaches to be good or at least competent at those things.
The problem is that he hasn't been effective lately at the very things he was good at that made up for those weaknesses.

You obviously believe he is still an above-average coach. I don't.

But I have tended to be correct about almost every single part of this slow collapse, with the exception of Russ not extending here. From the impact of the Harvin trade, to the Unger trade, to us not reaching the SB again after our SB loss - pretty much every aspect of this slow slide to mediocrity was pointed out at the moment and the impact to our future outlined. And it went down exactly as called, with the exception of Wilson extending. So I understand it might take you a while to get to the point where you realize what was obvious to some of us some time ago.

Maybe Carroll is still capable at those things, but for the past 5 years he has shown little to nothing to even hint he can be good at those aspects of being an effective GM/coach anymore. We have to hope he can though because the alternative is an unpleasant outcome.
Lol Carroll screwed up because he let his team go woke instead of focusing on football. Hopefully Carroll is done telling the rest of us how to live our lives so he can get another Super Bowl.
 

flv2

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...It seems the league is due for a huge change because the cap costs for QBs outpacing the budgets teams have for team building. Even if you draft on point, discover undrafted free agents, and find some UFA bargains it may still not be enough to field a complete team if QBs are demanding huge chunks of cap space...
From 2012 to 2019, (under the previous CBA), the minimum NFL pay went up from $390K to $495K, an increase of 26.92%. At the same time the NFL salary cap increased from $120.6M to $188.2M, an increase of 56.05%. Teams had to spend the extra money, they couldn't pay more for rookies, and there was no benefit to paying more for bottom-end FAs. The skyrocketing of salaries for irreplaceable talent was inevitable. If the NFL minimum wage had increased in line with the increase in the salary cap the increase in star player wages would have been much less dramatic because teams would not have been able to offer them such contracts.

What happens to star player salaries from here on depends on what happens to the salary cap in comparison to the NFL minimum wage.
 

GemCity

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We won’t be overpaying for the next several years woot!!

We’ll also be terrible along the way. But, look on the bright side, we won’t be overpaying!!
 

FrodosFinger

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You guys are insane if you think this team will win less than 9 games. Just re-signed Mone to add to what’s shaping up to be a pretty nasty front 7. You don’t need a miracle worker at quarterback to win in this league, even tho Wilson’s best days were 6 years ago. Look at Stafford, look at Goff, Wentz and Foles and Stinky G for case and point. It’s better to have a cheaper but sufficient quarterback with money left to add quality free agents
 

Perseus68

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You guys are insane if you think this team will win less than 9 games. Just re-signed Mone to add to what’s shaping up to be a pretty nasty front 7. You don’t need a miracle worker at quarterback to win in this league, even tho Wilson’s best days were 6 years ago. Look at Stafford, look at Goff, Wentz and Foles and Stinky G for case and point. It’s better to have a cheaper but sufficient quarterback with money left to add quality free agents
Love your optimism and I hope your right and Denver goes 0-17. Seattle is stingy with their money and I believe in Mone, DK, & Adams as they get/got paid. I was a Fan of dumping RW, Frank Clark, & Bennett. I totally agree what you say could be true it just that history isn’t in our favor.
 
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