2024 Personnel, Needs, Cap, etc.

renofox

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PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT
player, (salary, etc), cap savings, post 6/1

QB: Geno Smith, (22.3), 13.8, 22.5
QB:
RB: Kenneth Walker
RB: Charbonnet
RB: McIntosh
RB:
WR: Metcalf, (13.0), 1.5, 13.0
WR: JSN
WR: Lockett, (15.3), 7.1, 17.0
WR: Bobo
WR: Young
WR: Eskridge, (1.5), 1.5
TE: Dissly, (7.0), 7.0
TE:
TE:
LT: Cross
LT:
LG:
LG:
OC: Olu
OC:
RG: Bradford
RG:
RT: Lucas
RT: Forsythe

IDL: Jones, (11.5), 4.8, 11.5
IDL: Mone, (5.9), 5.9
IDL: Young
IDL: Morris
IDL:
IDL: Bumphus, 0.8
EDGE: Nwosu
EDGE: Mafe
EDGE: Hall
EDGE:
EDGE:
ILB:
ILB:
ILB: Bellore, 2.8
ILB: Thomas
ILB: O'Connell, 0.9
S: Adams, (16.5) 6.1, 16.5
S: Diggs, (11.0), 11.0
S: Love (5.7), 5.7
S: Reed
S: Okada, 0.9
CB: Bryant
CB: Witherspoon
CB: Brown
CB: Woolen
CB: Whitaker, 0.8

K: Myers
P: Dickson
LS: Stoll

I included 54 roster spots and 41 players under contract. #'s of players retained at each position varies, but this is close to what they usually keep (-1 spot somewhere).

OTC.com shows 41 players under contract with $1.3M in 2024 cap space (using $248.3M estimated cap). Spotrac shows 39 players under contract with $4.4M in 2024 cap space (using $249.6M estimated cap). Neither has accounted for the rookie pool or the minimum ~$10M needed as reserve for in-season replacement signings. This puts effective cap space at ~-$12M to -$18M. Significant cuts and/or restructures must be made just to fill out the roster. Some of the roster will be filled out with the included rookie pool. With seven picks (16, 78, 81, plus 1 each in rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7) they should get ~5 players that make the 53. Add in a UDFA or two and subtract a few camp fodder players currently on the roster and the Seahawks will probably need to sign 8-10 free agents PLUS the number of players that they release for cap purposes (Mone, etc.).

SEAHAWK FREE AGENTS
QB Lock
RB Dallas
TE Fant
TE Parkinson
TE Russell*
LG Lewis
OC Brown
RG Haynes
OT Curhan*
OT O'Neil
OT Peters
OT Curtis
IDL Williams
IDL Edwards
IDL Adams*
EDGE Taylor*
ILB Wagner
ILB Brooks
ILB Bush
CB Jackson*
CB Burns

* - RFA or ERFA.

DEAD MONEY AND RESTRUCTURING

I did not include dead money in the conversation because it is both a distraction and irrelevant. Dead money is simply money that has already been paid to the player but has not yet been accounted for in the cap. It almost exclusively consists of pro-rated signing bonuses and prior restructures. It is going to hit the cap whether the player is retained or released. Sometimes SOME of the dead money would be accelerated into 2024 cap (2 players can be released without acceleration using post 6/1), but that clears it off of the future years cap. Cap savings is cap savings.

Restructures are almost always when a team converts salary to bonus to push the cap hit to future years. It creates future dead money. That is why Adams and Diggs have such huge cap hits this year. PCJS kept pushing their prior year cap hits forward and will now pay the price whether they are retained or cut. If you want to see an extreme example of this, go look at the cap implication of Stafford's contract cap management - that's a real nightmare. The decision to retain/cut should only be made on their current and future contract price (salary, bonuses, escalators. etc). If the dead money is too much to absorb this year the books can be balanced by doing a restructure on another player to push cap hits to future years. The whole question should be whether or not a player's contribution to winning will be equal to or greater than his current and future year's contract.

In other words, teams have a lot of options to push to cap to future years. BUT they do eventually have to account for it. All teams do this and it is a narrow view when you take each year in isolation. The Seahawks have pushed a lot of money into 2024 and beyond. Even though they aren't nearly as mortgaged as many other teams, they're still not in a great place. They have the option of digging the hole even deeper this season so they can end up creating enough cap to do whatever they want. A quick glance shows at least $100M they could push into the future, but then 2025 or 2026 or eventually they would be limited to a 2-14 season with a roster filled with scrubs. Unless they have a coach that can take a roster chock full of minimum wage players and succeed (Rams?).

Sorry, I've spent too much time on this way-too-long post. I'll be back later to show what I'd like to see happen this off-season to address roster construction.
 
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jammerhawk

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Good post renofox!!

A look at the roster shows the team truly needs help at two positions just to even play.

At present there is just one OG under contract and three ILBs neither of whom are not better than backup or ST level viewing their abilities charitably.

Critically JS has his work cut out for himself as those positions will need to be focused upon if the team is to be at all competitive.

In terms of roster strength this offseason represents an unusual new low point in terms of roster depth at some positions. Capwise there will need to be some hard moves made to acquire desired personnel. However there it is curious how well TB has worked through their cap hell. Maybe the cap really is little more than an accounting obstacle that can be overcome.

Change will be pretty much a constant after the new coach comes. Some roster changes will be unpopular and some just necessary.
 
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toffee

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Great post and thank you! I took the liberty to add PFF for our players:

PlayersPFFPlayersPFF
QB: Geno Smith, (22.3), 13.8, 22.582.9IDL: Jones, (11.5), 4.8, 11.561.7
QB:IDL: Mone, (5.9), 5.9DNP
RB: Kenneth Walker83.5IDL: Young58.8
RB: Charbonnet69.7IDL: Morris63.4
RB: McIntoshDNPIDL:
RB:IDL: Bumphus, 0.8
WR: Metcalf, (13.0), 1.5, 13.080EDGE: Nwosu68.5
WR: JSN63.3EDGE: Mafe73.9
WR: Lockett, (15.3), 7.1, 17.078.1EDGE: Hall44.4
WR: Bobo73.5EDGE:
WR: Young66.7EDGE:
WR: Eskridge, (1.5), 1.560.4ILB:
TE: Dissly, (7.0), 7.071.3ILB:
TE:ILB: Bellore, 2.8
TE:ILB: Thomas
LT: Cross67.6ILB: O'Connell, 0.9
LT:S: Adams, (16.5) 6.1, 16.554.9
LG:S: Diggs, (11.0), 11.055.1
LG:S: Love (5.7), 5.772.8
OC: Olu53.1S: Reed54.8
OC:S: Okada, 0.9
RG: Bradford51.7CB: Bryant34
RG:CB: Witherspoon84.1
RT: Lucas53.1CB: Brown62.8
RT: Forsythe58.2CB: Woolen67.7
CB: Whitaker, 0.8DNP
 
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renofox

renofox

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Great post and thank you! I took the liberty to add PFF for our players:

PlayersPFFPlayersPFF
QB: Geno Smith, (22.3), 13.8, 22.582.9IDL: Jones, (11.5), 4.8, 11.561.7
QB:IDL: Mone, (5.9), 5.9DNP
RB: Kenneth Walker83.5IDL: Young58.8
RB: Charbonnet69.7IDL: Morris63.4
RB: McIntoshDNPIDL:
RB:IDL: Bumphus, 0.8
WR: Metcalf, (13.0), 1.5, 13.080EDGE: Nwosu68.5
WR: JSN63.3EDGE: Mafe73.9
WR: Lockett, (15.3), 7.1, 17.078.1EDGE: Hall44.4
WR: Bobo73.5EDGE:
WR: Young66.7EDGE:
WR: Eskridge, (1.5), 1.560.4ILB:
TE: Dissly, (7.0), 7.071.3ILB:
TE:ILB: Bellore, 2.8
TE:ILB: Thomas
LT: Cross67.6ILB: O'Connell, 0.9
LT:S: Adams, (16.5) 6.1, 16.554.9
LG:S: Diggs, (11.0), 11.055.1
LG:S: Love (5.7), 5.772.8
OC: Olu53.1S: Reed54.8
OC:S: Okada, 0.9
RG: Bradford51.7CB: Bryant34
RG:CB: Witherspoon84.1
RT: Lucas53.1CB: Brown62.8
RT: Forsythe58.2CB: Woolen67.7
CB: Whitaker, 0.8DNP
Pretty sad that Cross is the only OL on the roster above the 50's. For PFF, 65 is considered average.
 

Scout

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Whether the Hawks go to a 43 or 34 defense or a hybrid they need ILB help bad. Like they will have to sign a vet and draft one or two for sure. The other obvious area is safety as the Hawks need more young talent there in the wings as one of the safeties or even two might be cap cuts.

On offense it is apparent that the team needs OGs because it is very barren there with not much upside with the current FAs.
 

Spin Doctor

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Whether the Hawks go to a 43 or 34 defense or a hybrid they need ILB help bad. Like they will have to sign a vet and draft one or two for sure. The other obvious area is safety as the Hawks need more young talent there in the wings as one of the safeties or even two might be cap cuts.

On offense it is apparent that the team needs OGs because it is very barren there with not much upside with the current FAs.
Nobody uses base defenses anymore. We’re likely going to run some variation of 4-2-5 and 2-4-5, as this is the way the NFL is going.

Teams are matching personnel these days with offenses and having players become multi-dimensional, specifically from the safety spot. Teams often times are subbing linebackers for an extra safety.

One of our biggest issues is our safety position at the moment, and it’s also Pete’s greatest failure in the last five years or so
 

Scout

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Nickel and dime defenses are indeed used often but at some point you have to be able to play from a base defense from a 34 or 43 alignment to stop the run. Plus, having a safety that can come down and play in the slot can disguise things from a base defense using 34 or 43. The Hawks have planty of CBs that can play in the slot for example. And Love has shown he is adapt as a nickel defender.

Teams that play exclusively from a 4-2-5 alignment do so to put their best talent on the field. But in doing so you have to also realize you have be able to blitz from that alignment. Same with a 2-4-5 alignment where you have to be able to have defenders be quick with pressure up an A gap or double A gap blitzes. And being able to stack and shed for clean tackles is a must.

I think that obtaining a more athletic inside LB or two along with another athletic swiss army knife safety like Love opens up more options for the Hawks to run many defensive alignments.
 

RiverDog

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Great post and thank you! I took the liberty to add PFF for our players:

PlayersPFFPlayersPFF
QB: Geno Smith, (22.3), 13.8, 22.582.9IDL: Jones, (11.5), 4.8, 11.561.7
QB:IDL: Mone, (5.9), 5.9DNP
RB: Kenneth Walker83.5IDL: Young58.8
RB: Charbonnet69.7IDL: Morris63.4
RB: McIntoshDNPIDL:
RB:IDL: Bumphus, 0.8
WR: Metcalf, (13.0), 1.5, 13.080EDGE: Nwosu68.5
WR: JSN63.3EDGE: Mafe73.9
WR: Lockett, (15.3), 7.1, 17.078.1EDGE: Hall44.4
WR: Bobo73.5EDGE:
WR: Young66.7EDGE:
WR: Eskridge, (1.5), 1.560.4ILB:
TE: Dissly, (7.0), 7.071.3ILB:
TE:ILB: Bellore, 2.8
TE:ILB: Thomas
LT: Cross67.6ILB: O'Connell, 0.9
LT:S: Adams, (16.5) 6.1, 16.554.9
LG:S: Diggs, (11.0), 11.055.1
LG:S: Love (5.7), 5.772.8
OC: Olu53.1S: Reed54.8
OC:S: Okada, 0.9
RG: Bradford51.7CB: Bryant34
RG:CB: Witherspoon84.1
RT: Lucas53.1CB: Brown62.8
RT: Forsythe58.2CB: Woolen67.7
CB: Whitaker, 0.8DNP

Pretty sad that Cross is the only OL on the roster above the 50's. For PFF, 65 is considered average.
Rather than their PFF rating, it might be better, or at least helpful to include, their PFF position ranking so as to put their rating in perspective.

Cross's 67.6 is good for just the 37th ranked OT, or slightly below average for starters (64 starting tackles divided by 2 equals 32), which isn't horrible, but a bit of a disappointment considering where he was drafted. Geno's seemingly excellent 82.9 rating is less impressive when you contrast it to his fellow QB's as he's the 14th ranked QB, or middle of the pack. Same with Metcalf. His 80.0 is good for the #20 ranked WR, still good but not Pro Bowl caliber. Woolen's 67.7 makes him just the 54th ranked cornerback.

Our top ranked players were Witherspoon and Kenneth Walker, ranked 6th amongst cornerbacks and RB's. Bobby Wagner was the 7th ranked LB. TE, CB, RB, and WR seemed to be our strengths. Safety, interior OL, and edge were our weaknesses.

Anyhow, I just wanted to keep things in perspective. Going by PFF's measure, our overall roster isn't very strong when you compare us to the rest of the league.
 

jammerhawk

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Not sure the PFF metric tells the whole story, but it is interesting.

Looking at the roster now post FA and the draft presents a different and much improved picture of the strength of the collective team but questions still exist at several positions and the depth and strength of some position groups.

i am very curious how the D will look and do expect that the interior OLine will be better than last year’s group.

Time will tell.
 
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