The Athletic's Dugar Projects 8.2 Wins

[AROS]

Seattle Seahawks​

Win total: 8.2

Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator.

— Michael-Shawn Dugar

I still think that's being too conservative. I get that prognosticators want to err on the side of caution but at least it's a marginal improvement from Vegas' 7.5 line.

 

[onanygivensunday]

A minor point but worth mentioning... the 8.2 wins is The Athletic's model prediction after running 10,000 simulations.

The above comments are Dugar's relative to the model's prediction.

 

[kidhawk]

I was feeling negative making my 9-8 prediction so I’d still take the over but not with confidence. That makes me feel it’s a fair number

 

[Double Tribble]

Sounds logical

 

[Maelstrom787]

This is a solid projection for a team coming off of 2 consecutive 9 win seasons that has a very inexperienced new staff.

 

[Tech Worlds]

How the hell do you get 0.2 of a win?

Mind blown.

 

[Cyrus12]

8 to 9 sounds right. 10 maybe..

 

[onanygivensunday]

How the hell do you get 0.2 of a win?

Mind blown.

Going into the last game of the year, you're 8-8, and you're in the lead after the 1st quarter but ultimately lose... reluctantly settling for an 8-9 record.

 

[Hawkinaz]

Dugar is going with the Vegas odds not really sticking his neck out. I am going with 10 wins, they had 9 wins with the worst DC in the league and now with a better all around coaching staff

 

[NoGain]

Sounds about right.

 

[AROS]

Well I project 10.6785 wins so there.

 

[DarkVictory23]

This feels like an entirely fair projection that I reject completely.

 

[Atradees]

8.2 wins would be a disaster. We made colossal changes to get better results. I expect better results.

 

[Hawkstorian]

I predict we will be 1-0 in 8 days. Beyond that, I have no idea.

 

[RiverDog]

Vegas has the over/under for us at 7.5, and I were to bet, I'd take over.

If you look at our schedule, we have a lot of very winnable games: DEN, NE, NYJ, NYG, ATL, Minny, Cards x2, Rams x2. Plus, we've played the Lions tough the past two seasons, beating them twice. IMO a 9-8 record is a very reasonable expectation.

 

[Jac]

I was wondering how they were modeling the effect of the new coaching staff, but then thought they probably have that as a model feature (the historical impact of a new coaching staff vs. the prior season). I guess this is where the human factor comes in. Our defense has been abysmal for years despite the talent. And there is certainly talent with two potential X-factor players (Murphy and Witherspoon). I'll take the over given what I think Macdonald's bringing to the table.

 

[nwHawk]

10 wins. Players buy in and carve out a bright future.

 

[Rat]

Too many holes in the defense and I'm worried about how the OL is going to hold up without a healthy Lucas for me to bet the over confidently. I could see ten wins if the team isn't especially snake bit with injuries though.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Vegas has the over/under for us at 7.5, and I were to bet, I'd take over.

If you look at our schedule, we have a lot of very winnable games: DEN, NE, NYJ, NYG, ATL, Minny, Cards x2, Rams x2. Plus, we've played the Lions tough the past two seasons, beating them twice. IMO a 9-8 record is a very reasonable expectation.

You listed the Rams. Lol.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line.

Arguably the least two impactful positions on a modern football team.

Admittedly I wasn't too high on this team myself, but that's mostly because I don't trust Geno. But put less pressure on him through a decent defense, get more out of Riq and JSN, and I think we could get to 9 or 10.