Laloosh":3dzelz6d said:
SalishHawkFan":3dzelz6d said:
Laloosh":3dzelz6d said:
Scotte wasn't asking about only 3rd and 4 plays. He was asking if any of the 7 converted on 3rd and short were Wilson scrambles. They were not, but you had said they were. I would have to scroll through every play once again to find the time stamps. All I know is I scrolled through every play and wrote down if it was a pass or if a RB took the ball. Wilson scrambles are impossible to tell if they're designed runs or if he Houdini'd the play, so they are left off my numbers. That's the primary reason your numbers and mine won't ever match.
There have only been 7 converted rushes on 3rd and 4 or less. The score board at the stadium read 3rd and 5 for the ONLY 3rd and 4 (well, 3rd and 4.5) that we've had and rushed/scrambled on.
Here's the play:
Here is the entire list of 3rd and 4 or less that have been converted on the ground (which I already provided).
You tell me how you got to 7 without including Russell's scramble. I don't understand why the correction bothered you. I answered the question w/out an agenda. Your use of 3rd and 4 or less rather than "mostly 3rd and 1" in the OP is misleading at best but you're upset by my pointing out that yes, one of them is a RW scramble?
Feel free to show me the error of my ways.
It doesn't bother me, I'm just trying to explain. Could I have made a mistake? Certainly. Your list you provided, could THEY have made a mistake? They admit they do all the time. One of us made a mistake. For me to go through and find the mistake, if I made it, would require a lengthy search through the play by plays. That's exactly how I came up with my numbers. Scrolling through the entire seasons full play by play and jotting down, on paper, every relevant play.
The odds are LESS likely that I jotted down a phantom play than that PFR simply missed one of them. It would have been nice if I had kept the paper I wrote it all down on, but once the post was made, that became part of the garbage can family.
Oh, and I'm not upset by you pointing out anything. That's what this site is for. You're adding to the knowledge Laloosh. As I added on to a post above, which in fairness to you, you may have missed, I admit in retrospect cutting off at 3rd and 4 may have been unfair. My only reason for doing so was the Cincy game where Bevell passed 4 times on 3rd and 4 or less and I wanted to know if those were playing the odds correctly.
In the end, I still don't think it was smart to pass all four times. At the least, run it on 3rd and 2 or 3rd and 1. Don't pass EVERY damned time. The oline is definitely the problem here. They are why the success rate is down 20% across the board. If it were just the passing game or just the running game, one could blame elsewhere, but it is a complete degradation across the board. So it's the oline. What used to be 84% on the ground is now 64%. Historically, though too small sample size, Lynch is 66% from exactly 3rd and 4. Probably now that's less than a 50/50 proposition with this oline.
HOWEVER, that said, passing the ball is even worse, across the board.
Yet in the last two losses, in the 4th qtr when we needed a first down, Bevell has called passes 6 of 7 times, IIRC without looking it up. Vs Cincy it was 4 straight passes. Guy has got to open his eyes and see that this oline can't succeed in those passing situations very often, we have a better chance running it.