Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things but there is an attitude of "oh we got this, Super Bowl is guaranteed" which I find as an admittedly sad Mathmo who loves analysing probability, just a tad furstrating.
Hence the arrogance claims by Packer fans, but I digress.
In a game of this magnitude, things can snowball quite quickly (Superbowl last year ring any bells). For example, what are the chances that Green Bay get the ball first and drive the field for a score followed by a Seahawks fumble in own territory and Rodgers punches it in for another TD (air not ground...)?
Not likely right? Well OK not likely but certainly plausible given Seahawks always Defer the opening kick-off, I expect Green Bay to have some success running Lacy early and our secondary is due giving up a big play (last one was Benjamin from week 8 I think? Maybe similar to the Lindlay bomb to Floyd which he got wrong...). We have a QB who is ultra protective of the ball but giveaways happen, look at 1st play of last years NCFCG for an example. Someone is going to pull out a stat of Wilson's 7 giveaways or the fact that only one team scored on their opening possession against us this year I imagine, but my point is more of a hypothetical one at any rate.
My point is this is just one potential set of scenarios which although I'm not expecting could happen, is not realistically out of the question. If Green Bay gets in front, the crowd will get nervous and the pressure is all on the Hawks. Suddenly the construct of the game is utterly diffrerent, swagger disappears etc
Don't get me wrong, I expect Hawks to win (mainly because I just don't thing Rodgers can do enough without mobility) but it doesnt take a string of miracles to occur for Green Bay to win. They are a good team and I have no idea what the score will be from a prediction standpoint. X factor is how much that calf limits AR - we will never the answer to that question anyway. If he is shutdown, LOB / Hawk fans will claim it was nothing to do with the injury. the media will put it all on the injury.
If this game is run 100 times on a simulation repeatedly, how many would Green Bay win? I'd estimate 15-25, so for me Sunday is going to be as nervous as last year.
GO HAWKS!