Crabtree visiting the Dolphins

[Hawknballs]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -dolphins/

Seems weird we haven't looked at this guy at all. He hasn't been impressive against us so probably why; still, with the SF/SEA history of player swaps and the possible motivation he'd have going to the rival of the team that has let him walk seems like it would be worth at least taking a look.

I realize he and Sherman don't get along well, but Sherman is smart and a marketing genius. I'm pretty sure he would realize the potential gain of Crabtree going to his side.

 

[kidhawk]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/18/michael-crabtree-finally-taking-a-visit-going-to-see-dolphins/

Seems weird we haven't looked at this guy at all. He hasn't been impressive against us so probably why; still, with the SF/SEA history of player swaps and the possible motivation he'd have going to the rival of the team that has let him walk seems like it would be worth at least taking a look.

I realize he and Sherman don't get along well, but Sherman is smart and a marketing genius. I'm pretty sure he would realize the potential gain of Crabtree going to his side.

I've never really been impressed with Crabtree. He's got the athleticism, but it doesn't translate onto the field in a way that would justify the type of money he likes to believe he's worth.

Also, Sherman seems to keep on the field smack on the field and seems to forget it when it comes to players once he's off the field, but his beef with Crabtree isn't a football one, and although Sherman would be a team player (I have no doubt of this), I do doubt that he'd accept him in the same way he'll accept a guy like Graham.

 

[Popeyejones]

My guess is that there are four things going on with Crabtree:

1. He has probably priced himself out of a lot of serious interest.

2. People are scared off by his injury history.

3. On top of the injury history, there's a perception that the injuries have caught up with him and even when healthy he's not the player he was.

4. The skill set he offers is generally undervalued on the market. At the WR position people (probably more so than any other position) over-value physical freaks, and over-value the elite end of the distribution. Unlike, say, offensive guard, inside linebacker or even cornerback, there's a misconception that unless a WR is "elite" or a "gamebreaker" they're not worth investing in. As Crabtree is not elite -- he's a very above average WR whose ability is not based on physical gifts -- he's undervalued as well.

So basically, he's a risk whose game lends itself to being undervalued at the same time that he probably overvalues himself. Hence, there's a big divide between his expectations and teams' offers, causing him to linger on the market, as interest is dropped after the first opening conversation.

A smart team would be hanging out on the sidelines of all of this, and then show up late with an offer that he would have brushed aside a month before (e.g. a two year deal with slightly above mid-level money and a decent bonus where the second year is a team option).

 

[TAB420]

Sherman has some deep seeded hate for Crabtree, this would not be good for the locker room.

 

[Marvin49]

Honestly think he's be really good in an offense that throws the ball a lot more.

 

[Popeyejones]

Honestly think he's be really good in an offense that throws the ball a lot more.

Agreed, but who isn't that true for?

I think the problem is that those offenses he'd shine in probably aren't interested. The Packers and Lions and Falcons don't need him. The Saints are slashing offensive salary to dedicate to defense. The Patriots have realized that as long as they have Brady and Gronkowski the WRs are just interchangeable parts, and the same is true for the Broncos with Peyton and D. Thomas.

I guess the Eagles could fit, but they seem to be taking the interchangeable parts approach too.

In all honesty, I don't think his stats will benefit from it (which I suspect he cares a lot about, just from his time on the 9ers and what he's said), but I think his best fit would be as a dependable presence and escape valve for a young QB with upside who is need of that.

That's basically the Vikings, the Raiders, the Jags, and the Dolphins.

I'm guessing those teams aren't interested on overpaying for him to play that role though, hence where we are (tepid interest from the Dolphins).

 

[onanygivensunday]

A smart team would be hanging out on the sidelines of all of this, and then show up late with an offer that he would have brushed aside a month before (e.g. a two year deal with slightly above mid-level money and a decent bonus where the second year is a team option).

I entirely agree with your post. No team will pay him the elite money he thinks that he deserves.

I believe that he'll sign somewhere for 2 years, $8M total with $5M guaranteed.

 

[Popeyejones]

I believe that he'll sign somewhere for 2 years, $8M total with $5M guaranteed.

:th2thumbs:

 

[Marvin49]

Honestly think he's be really good in an offense that throws the ball a lot more.

Agreed, but who isn't that true for?

I think the problem is that those offenses he'd shine in probably aren't interested. The Packers and Lions and Falcons don't need him. The Saints are slashing offensive salary to dedicate to defense. The Patriots have realized that as long as they have Brady and Gronkowski the WRs are just interchangeable parts, and the same is true for the Broncos with Peyton and D. Thomas.

I guess the Eagles could fit, but they seem to be taking the interchangeable parts approach too.

In all honesty, I don't think his stats will benefit from it (which I suspect he cares a lot about, just from his time on the 9ers and what he's said), but I think his best fit would be as a dependable presence and escape valve for a young QB with upside who is need of that.

That's basically the Vikings, the Raiders, the Jags, and the Dolphins.

I'm guessing those teams aren't interested on overpaying for him to play that role though, hence where we are (tepid interest from the Dolphins).

Well obviously...

...my point is just that I think he's really underrated because of the offenses he's played in. If a team that throws the ball a lot more signs him I think they'll get a bargain.

 

[Largent80]

The Hawks are beyond mediocrity.

 

[Scottemojo]

Crabs was never fast, post achilles he is a bit slower. It affected him. It has already been stated that he has a higher opinion of himself than teams do, but he was that way coming out of college.

 

[original poster]

I think he will (have to) accept his expectations don't coincide with teams expectations so he'll be forced to take a lower salary, I'm surprised the Raiders aren't interested personally.

 

[Popeyejones]

...my point is just that I think he's really underrated because of the offenses he's played in. If a team that throws the ball a lot more signs him I think they'll get a bargain.

Okay, gotcha. I think we just disagree on that point.

While the 9ers didn't pass that much while Crabtree was there, the passing game that John Morton designed cleared out space for one guy who the passing game went through. For a long time that guy was Crabtree. Because of that wrinkle we basically know what Crabtree is capable of in an offense in which he gets a ton of targets.

Put another way I don't think this is a Golden Tate situation. The Hawks also are a run first team, but they're passing game never went through Tate. Even in Tate's best year in Seattle Crabtree still got 28% more targets than him. Tate had to go the Lions to get a ton of targets, whereas Crabtree was already getting them.

Factor in that in the same offense a 33 and 34 year old Anquan Boldin -- who hadn't had a 1K season in three years with an offense that passes much more -- put up as good numbers as Crabtree ever did, and you have another data point saying that what you see might be what you get with Crabtree.

Factor in too that he's injured all the time, and the possibility that the effects of those industries may have added up as well, and I just don't think 1) he was ever that special as a receiver, and 2) he's less so now than he may have been before.

This doesn't mean he sucks, he's a good player, but that's it, IMO. He's not as good as a middle-aged Boldin IMO, and not a diamond just waiting to be polished like Tate was.

 

[Hawkfan77]

I've never been a fan of his. I never wanted the Hawks to draft him and was happy they passed (not like they did any better...) but I just don't think he's anything more than depth. And in a draft so deep at WR, I'm glad the Hawks aren't trying to sign him. Get younger and better

 

[ringless]

I always felt Crabtree was over-rated and never met the expectations. I do recall every season there being excitement at his ceiling month a lot of the 49er fan base but he never reached it. I could be wrong but if I remember correctly he never survived a training camp. Of course his injuries are well documented. He was never a player that struck fear into an opposing defense. I think he is just a normal 2nd/3rd option on most teams.

 

[Seafan]

He's a diva who is mediocre. Too bad the 9ers are resigning him.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

Sherman has some deep seeded hate for Crabtree, this would not be good for the locker room.

I disagree. I think Sherman was merely speaking the truth on his Crabtree rant, and the numbers support this. Crabtree has had ONE season that was slightly better than average in a few categories, but every other year on a per target basis Crabtree has ranked in the 50s, 60s and 70s of NFL WRs. He is sorry, and other teams know it- and that's exactly why his market is so dry.

 

[original poster]

Sherman has some deep seeded hate for Crabtree, this would not be good for the locker room.

I disagree. I think Sherman was merely speaking the truth on his Crabtree rant, and the numbers support this. Crabtree has had ONE season that was slightly better than average in a few categories, but every other year on a per target basis Crabtree has ranked in the 50s, 60s and 70s of NFL WRs. He is sorry, and other teams know it- and that's exactly why his market is so dry.

I agree, Sherman and Crabtree would get on just fine in the same locker room, although it would never happen.

It doesn't take me much to get excited about a new signing but I'd go as far as saying id be disappointed with him signing with us, thankfully it will never happen.

 

[TAB420]

Research what Sherman has said about Crabtree. He has stated, that he just doesn't hate him on the field.

 

[Basis4day]

PFT is linking to stories claiming the dolphins offered him 3 million a year but he wants 4.5
Other articles ive seen push his initial FA target number at 9+. I didn't think he would be breaking any banks but kinda surprised at the low demand.